车贷险信用风险管理研究
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摘要
本文主要介绍了汽车消费信贷保证保险业务(以下简称车贷险)的概况,描述了车贷险信用风险现状并对车贷险信用风险的成因进行了分析,指出了车贷险业务的主要风险因素是个人信用风险。
根据信用风险评估指标体系建立的原则,我国国情和车贷险本身的特点,最终确定了车贷险个人信用评估指标体系,并对体系中各个指标的提出做了简要的解释。在此基础上,运用层次分析法确定了体系中各指标的权重,构建了车贷险个人信用评估模型,阐述了建模原理,并做了案例研究。
最后从我国个人征信体系,保险公司内部风险管理,建立银保合作机制等方面提出了车贷险信用风险管理的建议性对策。并对将来的研究提出了展望。希望本文对车贷险信用风险管理的研究对重起车贷险业务有借鉴意义。
In recent years, the rapid development of China's automobile industry has brought the enormous development room to the automobile consumption credit loan market ,as an important aid vehicle of the automobile consumption credit loan, automotive consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business had played a great promoting role in the rapid development of the domestic automobile consumption credit loan. But because of the domestic personal credit system and the legal system is missing or incomplete and insurance companies backward in internal management lever and other reasons, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee Insurance business was in trouble. Although several insurance companies operate this business now, but merely nominal. As a franchise risk insurance companies should seize the business of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee Insurance business offered great opportunities for property insurance business, and accomplish business restructuring and business development leap. At the same time can stimulate the growth of consumer demand, promote consumer credit loan business in the bank, can also accelerate the development of China's automobile industry. Therefore, Research on the credit risk management of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance is essential to the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business shake off the dilemma and healthy development.
The first chapter of this paper introduced the background of the papers, research significance and the arrange of the structure, the second chapter brief introduced the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business business, defined the essence of the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business is a business of property insurance and the risk of accept insurance has the credit nature, therefore on the borrower's credit review must be extra strict. But why the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business payment rate remains high, The reason is the domestic personal and business financial credit system has not established now, the lack of credit class supervision and the mechanism of dishonesty to carry out the punishment, some consumers at very the start with the purpose of a malicious fraud and buy car by loans, while others are the lack of the awareness of the credit, do not consider their own economic strength, the first loan to buy a car with a repeat, but its performance ability to repay is often not enough; Some people have their own economic solvency, but the credit awareness is very short book, and refused to fulfill repayment obligations. Insurance companies do not attach importance to the credit investigation, not strict, but also useless to complete the credit evaluation system, coupled with the external environment is uncertainty, so personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business payment rate will be high.
The primary means to avoid these risks is of a rigorous review of credit, the establishment of personal credit evaluation index system and a personal credit assessment model, control credit risk from the source, in these aspect of means of maturity and information complete, insurance companies obviously is not as good banks, so finding a suitable personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business of their own characteristics of individual credit evaluation index system and a personal credit assessment model is very necessary. Personal credit evaluation index system to follow scientific principles, integrated systemic principles, the principle of predictability can be quantified in principle, the principle of flexibility, and operational principles. In foreign personal credit evaluation index system has been quite mature, while China is still in the initial stage. However, due to different national conditions, the copy is clearly not feasible, at home and abroad to the personal credit evaluation index system to compare and brief analysis to identify the gaps in China, At the final define the system of the China's national conditions. International credit rating on the formation of the group there are many indicators that are 5 C elements, 5 P elements, 4 F elements, and so on. 5 C to which most influential factor. 5C normally supplies Germany, Capacity, Capital, Collateral and Conditions of the five areas to the borrower for credit risk analysis. China's commercial banks for personal credit rating system of indicators have no fixed standards. Compared to the index system with foreign, domestic banks more concerned about the borrower's level of education, health standards. In addition, China's use the indicators exist to a large extent, "Chinese characteristics" such as residence cards, and professional titles, and so on. And the impact of such as these indicators to he credit risk is still unknown, but China's commercial banks often use these indicators as an important basis for lending. The three chapter in this paper at the final in accordance with China's national conditions, characteristics as well as personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance's own and the establish principle of the personal credit evaluation index system, established personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation index system. And the system of the various indicators made a brief explanation.
In the fourth chapter to the current personal credit assessment mainly two ways ---- experience judgement and the credit score made a brief introduction, pointing out that during the modern personal credit assessment, credit score should be based, and to experience judgement be added , combined the qualitative analysis with and quantitative analysis, evaluation can better judge the different fiduciary risks. Then according to personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation index system, designed personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit assessment indicators standard rate table, and use the analytical hierarchy process determine the level of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit assessment indicators at all levels of weight, expounded the principle of Modeling ,Use the method of calculating the weighted comprehensive to calculate personal credit assessment score u, use the method of corporate credit ratings, based on individual credit scores to assess the class of personal credit risk.Finally done a case study, show the operational processes of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation model.
In the fifth chapter, be directed against the credit risk status and causes of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business raised personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance credit risk management measures. First, we must improve our personal credit information system. Mainly from the legislation, credit intermediaries, dishonesty punishment mechanism, personal credit appraisal system etc. in improving China's personal credit information system. Secondly, the insurance companies should be strengthen internal risk management, rational design of accepting insurance conditions, and do a good job in risk management, strengthen the collection of past due loans, the recovery mechanism, and strengthening internal control, layers of clear lines of responsibility and the third, the establishment of Banks and Insurance Cooperation mechanisms. Pointed out the importance of Cooperating with banks and insurance cooperation. Analysis of the current security the main problems, and analysis of the reasons, be directed against the problem and the reasons, at the aspect of unify understanding, before the credits loans, during the credits loans ,after the credits loans established cooperation mechanisms.
Chapter VI of the paper summed up the research work and future research work done a prospect.
Faced with growing car market, the development of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business has a long way to go. The current most important issue to be resolved of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance development is how the insurance company from the old personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business difficulties come out, Go into battle with a light pack, carry out the new version of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business. Of course, the insurance company alone is not enough to promote, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business development needs of all sectors of the community's full support and active support. Hope that through this paper's demonstration analysis can arouse the concern of the relevant departments, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business on the benign development, the role played casting a brick to attract jade .
根据信用风险评估指标体系建立的原则,我国国情和车贷险本身的特点,最终确定了车贷险个人信用评估指标体系,并对体系中各个指标的提出做了简要的解释。在此基础上,运用层次分析法确定了体系中各指标的权重,构建了车贷险个人信用评估模型,阐述了建模原理,并做了案例研究。
最后从我国个人征信体系,保险公司内部风险管理,建立银保合作机制等方面提出了车贷险信用风险管理的建议性对策。并对将来的研究提出了展望。希望本文对车贷险信用风险管理的研究对重起车贷险业务有借鉴意义。
In recent years, the rapid development of China's automobile industry has brought the enormous development room to the automobile consumption credit loan market ,as an important aid vehicle of the automobile consumption credit loan, automotive consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business had played a great promoting role in the rapid development of the domestic automobile consumption credit loan. But because of the domestic personal credit system and the legal system is missing or incomplete and insurance companies backward in internal management lever and other reasons, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee Insurance business was in trouble. Although several insurance companies operate this business now, but merely nominal. As a franchise risk insurance companies should seize the business of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee Insurance business offered great opportunities for property insurance business, and accomplish business restructuring and business development leap. At the same time can stimulate the growth of consumer demand, promote consumer credit loan business in the bank, can also accelerate the development of China's automobile industry. Therefore, Research on the credit risk management of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance is essential to the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business shake off the dilemma and healthy development.
The first chapter of this paper introduced the background of the papers, research significance and the arrange of the structure, the second chapter brief introduced the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business business, defined the essence of the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business is a business of property insurance and the risk of accept insurance has the credit nature, therefore on the borrower's credit review must be extra strict. But why the personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business payment rate remains high, The reason is the domestic personal and business financial credit system has not established now, the lack of credit class supervision and the mechanism of dishonesty to carry out the punishment, some consumers at very the start with the purpose of a malicious fraud and buy car by loans, while others are the lack of the awareness of the credit, do not consider their own economic strength, the first loan to buy a car with a repeat, but its performance ability to repay is often not enough; Some people have their own economic solvency, but the credit awareness is very short book, and refused to fulfill repayment obligations. Insurance companies do not attach importance to the credit investigation, not strict, but also useless to complete the credit evaluation system, coupled with the external environment is uncertainty, so personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business payment rate will be high.
The primary means to avoid these risks is of a rigorous review of credit, the establishment of personal credit evaluation index system and a personal credit assessment model, control credit risk from the source, in these aspect of means of maturity and information complete, insurance companies obviously is not as good banks, so finding a suitable personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business of their own characteristics of individual credit evaluation index system and a personal credit assessment model is very necessary. Personal credit evaluation index system to follow scientific principles, integrated systemic principles, the principle of predictability can be quantified in principle, the principle of flexibility, and operational principles. In foreign personal credit evaluation index system has been quite mature, while China is still in the initial stage. However, due to different national conditions, the copy is clearly not feasible, at home and abroad to the personal credit evaluation index system to compare and brief analysis to identify the gaps in China, At the final define the system of the China's national conditions. International credit rating on the formation of the group there are many indicators that are 5 C elements, 5 P elements, 4 F elements, and so on. 5 C to which most influential factor. 5C normally supplies Germany, Capacity, Capital, Collateral and Conditions of the five areas to the borrower for credit risk analysis. China's commercial banks for personal credit rating system of indicators have no fixed standards. Compared to the index system with foreign, domestic banks more concerned about the borrower's level of education, health standards. In addition, China's use the indicators exist to a large extent, "Chinese characteristics" such as residence cards, and professional titles, and so on. And the impact of such as these indicators to he credit risk is still unknown, but China's commercial banks often use these indicators as an important basis for lending. The three chapter in this paper at the final in accordance with China's national conditions, characteristics as well as personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance's own and the establish principle of the personal credit evaluation index system, established personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation index system. And the system of the various indicators made a brief explanation.
In the fourth chapter to the current personal credit assessment mainly two ways ---- experience judgement and the credit score made a brief introduction, pointing out that during the modern personal credit assessment, credit score should be based, and to experience judgement be added , combined the qualitative analysis with and quantitative analysis, evaluation can better judge the different fiduciary risks. Then according to personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation index system, designed personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit assessment indicators standard rate table, and use the analytical hierarchy process determine the level of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit assessment indicators at all levels of weight, expounded the principle of Modeling ,Use the method of calculating the weighted comprehensive to calculate personal credit assessment score u, use the method of corporate credit ratings, based on individual credit scores to assess the class of personal credit risk.Finally done a case study, show the operational processes of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance personal credit evaluation model.
In the fifth chapter, be directed against the credit risk status and causes of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business raised personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance credit risk management measures. First, we must improve our personal credit information system. Mainly from the legislation, credit intermediaries, dishonesty punishment mechanism, personal credit appraisal system etc. in improving China's personal credit information system. Secondly, the insurance companies should be strengthen internal risk management, rational design of accepting insurance conditions, and do a good job in risk management, strengthen the collection of past due loans, the recovery mechanism, and strengthening internal control, layers of clear lines of responsibility and the third, the establishment of Banks and Insurance Cooperation mechanisms. Pointed out the importance of Cooperating with banks and insurance cooperation. Analysis of the current security the main problems, and analysis of the reasons, be directed against the problem and the reasons, at the aspect of unify understanding, before the credits loans, during the credits loans ,after the credits loans established cooperation mechanisms.
Chapter VI of the paper summed up the research work and future research work done a prospect.
Faced with growing car market, the development of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business has a long way to go. The current most important issue to be resolved of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance development is how the insurance company from the old personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business difficulties come out, Go into battle with a light pack, carry out the new version of personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business. Of course, the insurance company alone is not enough to promote, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business development needs of all sectors of the community's full support and active support. Hope that through this paper's demonstration analysis can arouse the concern of the relevant departments, personal automobile consumption credit loan guarantee insurance business on the benign development, the role played casting a brick to attract jade .
引文
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[2] Durand.D.RiskElements in Consumer Installment Financing.National Bureau of Economic Research.New York.1941:78~129
[3] 纽行.美国的消费信贷报告机构情况简介.环球金融,1999,(11)
[4] 布泽尔(David.H.Buzzell)著,夏玉和译.北京:中国计划出版社,2001:115
[5] Tor Jacobson,Kasper Roszbach Banking Lending Policy:Credit Scoring and Value at Risk.1998,(7):38~49
[6]Capon.N.Credit Scoring Systems:A Critical Analysis. Journal of Marketing.1982,(46):82~91
[7] Dionne,G.M. Artist and M. Guillen. Count Data Models for A Credit Scoring System.Journal of Empirical Finance.1996,(3):303~325
[8] David West. Neural Network Credit Scoring Models. ComPuters & Operations Research. 2000,(27):1131~1152
[9] Fishenlson-Holstine,H.Case Studies in Credit Risk Model Development. Credit Risk Modeling,Glenlake Publishing,Chicago,1998:169~180
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[11] Tor Jacobson,Kasper Roszbach Banking lending Poliey,credit scoring and survival of loans.30 July 1998,122~124
[12] Kenneth Carling,Tor Jaeobson,Kasper Roszbaeh.Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans.Journal of Banking & Finance 2001,(25):717~739
[13] Gretchenq Tracey.S,Comparing Five Modeling Teehniques for Predicting Forest Characteristics.Ecological Modeling.2002,157:209~225
[14] Titterington,D.M.Discriminant Analysis and Related Topies. In:C.L.Thoms,J.N.Crook D.B.Edelman. Credit Scoring and Credit Control. Oxford University Press,1992:116~190
[15] Cheng.B.&Titerington D.M. Neural Networks: A Review from A Statistical Perspective. Statistical Science 1994,(9):2~30
[16] 杨建刚编著,人工神经网络实用教程 [M],浙江大学出版社,2001
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[21] 宋玮, 对车贷险市场风险管控的思考[J],金融理论与实践, 2005年第6期
[22] 林平, 车贷险发展现状与市场重振[J],浙江金融,2005年第6期
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[24] 慈中阳,汽车保险发展历程与现状浅析[J],经济与管理,2006年2月第2期
[25] 谢鹭,关于车贷险风险控制的思考[J],上海保险,2003年第9期
[26] 刘小刚,童佳, 新车贷险博弈[J],中国保险,2006年第3期
[27] 董伟纲,车贷险的风险控制[J],中国保险,2004年第1期
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[30] 粟芳,浅谈车贷险偏差和操作误区[J],保险研究,2004年第7期
[31] 罗头军,牛卫平, 车贷险解困[J],中国保险,2005年第10期
[32] 刘峰,车贷险如何步入良性轨道[J],中国保险,2003年第1期
[33] 施红, 新车贷险缘何需求不旺[J],中国保险,2005年第12期
[34] 李年生,李华辉,车贷险何去何从[J],中国保险,2003年第10期
[35] 李文星,汽车金融公司冲击车贷险[J],中国保险,2003年第12期
[36] 张峰,车贷险缘何降至“冰点”[J],金融经济,2004年第8期
[37] 罗头军,邹畅, 寻求车贷险发展出路[J],中国保险,2006年第01期
[38] 郑金强,邹正, 浅议沈阳市“车贷险”困境及对策[J], 辽宁工学院学报(社会科学版),2006年第4期
[39] 罗头军,牛卫平, 车贷险发展困境的原因分析及对策研究[J],上海保险,2006年第3期
[40] 刘峰,刘浏,车贷险的困境成因分析及对策探讨[J],北方经济,2006年01期
[41] 梁军,焦新龙, 汽车保险与理赔[M],人民交通出版社,2004.10
[42] 刘戒骄,个人信用管理[M],对外经贸大学出版社,2003
[43] 曹时军,曾玉珍, 保险学原理与实务[M], 中国林业出版社,2007.09
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[2] Durand.D.RiskElements in Consumer Installment Financing.National Bureau of Economic Research.New York.1941:78~129
[3] 纽行.美国的消费信贷报告机构情况简介.环球金融,1999,(11)
[4] 布泽尔(David.H.Buzzell)著,夏玉和译.北京:中国计划出版社,2001:115
[5] Tor Jacobson,Kasper Roszbach Banking Lending Policy:Credit Scoring and Value at Risk.1998,(7):38~49
[6]Capon.N.Credit Scoring Systems:A Critical Analysis. Journal of Marketing.1982,(46):82~91
[7] Dionne,G.M. Artist and M. Guillen. Count Data Models for A Credit Scoring System.Journal of Empirical Finance.1996,(3):303~325
[8] David West. Neural Network Credit Scoring Models. ComPuters & Operations Research. 2000,(27):1131~1152
[9] Fishenlson-Holstine,H.Case Studies in Credit Risk Model Development. Credit Risk Modeling,Glenlake Publishing,Chicago,1998:169~180
[10] 张美灵,欧志伟,信用评估理论与实务[M],复旦大学出版社,2004
[11] Tor Jacobson,Kasper Roszbach Banking lending Poliey,credit scoring and survival of loans.30 July 1998,122~124
[12] Kenneth Carling,Tor Jaeobson,Kasper Roszbaeh.Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans.Journal of Banking & Finance 2001,(25):717~739
[13] Gretchenq Tracey.S,Comparing Five Modeling Teehniques for Predicting Forest Characteristics.Ecological Modeling.2002,157:209~225
[14] Titterington,D.M.Discriminant Analysis and Related Topies. In:C.L.Thoms,J.N.Crook D.B.Edelman. Credit Scoring and Credit Control. Oxford University Press,1992:116~190
[15] Cheng.B.&Titerington D.M. Neural Networks: A Review from A Statistical Perspective. Statistical Science 1994,(9):2~30
[16] 杨建刚编著,人工神经网络实用教程 [M],浙江大学出版社,2001
[17] Lippman RP.Introduction to Computing with Neural Networks. IEEE ASSPMay,1997,(4):4~22
[18] 隗海林,李仲兴,汽车保险与理赔 [M],人民交通出版社,2006
[19] 林宝清,魏华林,保险学原理[M],高等教育出版社, 1999年出版
[20] 谢鹭,车贷险业务发展现状及出路[J],保险研究,2003年第11期
[21] 宋玮, 对车贷险市场风险管控的思考[J],金融理论与实践, 2005年第6期
[22] 林平, 车贷险发展现状与市场重振[J],浙江金融,2005年第6期
[23] 车辉,邓杉,我国汽车消费信贷保险风险管理研究[J],商场现代化,2006年5月总第468期
[24] 慈中阳,汽车保险发展历程与现状浅析[J],经济与管理,2006年2月第2期
[25] 谢鹭,关于车贷险风险控制的思考[J],上海保险,2003年第9期
[26] 刘小刚,童佳, 新车贷险博弈[J],中国保险,2006年第3期
[27] 董伟纲,车贷险的风险控制[J],中国保险,2004年第1期
[28] 朱正,唐跃萍,崔建福, 防范与化解——车贷险经营风险的调研报告[J],中国保险,2005年第9期
[29] 李静,防范车贷险履约风险的思考[J],金融与经济,2005年第9期
[30] 粟芳,浅谈车贷险偏差和操作误区[J],保险研究,2004年第7期
[31] 罗头军,牛卫平, 车贷险解困[J],中国保险,2005年第10期
[32] 刘峰,车贷险如何步入良性轨道[J],中国保险,2003年第1期
[33] 施红, 新车贷险缘何需求不旺[J],中国保险,2005年第12期
[34] 李年生,李华辉,车贷险何去何从[J],中国保险,2003年第10期
[35] 李文星,汽车金融公司冲击车贷险[J],中国保险,2003年第12期
[36] 张峰,车贷险缘何降至“冰点”[J],金融经济,2004年第8期
[37] 罗头军,邹畅, 寻求车贷险发展出路[J],中国保险,2006年第01期
[38] 郑金强,邹正, 浅议沈阳市“车贷险”困境及对策[J], 辽宁工学院学报(社会科学版),2006年第4期
[39] 罗头军,牛卫平, 车贷险发展困境的原因分析及对策研究[J],上海保险,2006年第3期
[40] 刘峰,刘浏,车贷险的困境成因分析及对策探讨[J],北方经济,2006年01期
[41] 梁军,焦新龙, 汽车保险与理赔[M],人民交通出版社,2004.10
[42] 刘戒骄,个人信用管理[M],对外经贸大学出版社,2003
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