基于BP神经网络的城市人居环境生态安全评价体系研究
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摘要
科学技术的巨大进步在满足人类日益增长的物质文化的同时也给社会造成了诸多生态环境问题,严重威胁着人的健康和人居生态环境的可持续发展,尤其是对人类的重要居住环境——城市生态安全影响最为严重。
城市人居环境的生态安全问题是当今社会所共同面对的问题,科学合理地评价城市人居环境的生态安全,使公众深刻理解人居生态环境问题的严重性,提升城市生态环境管理和建设工作科学性和可操作性,为城市提供良好的人居环境,进而实现人类生存环境生态安全的可持续发展。
城市人居环境生态安全的评价目前仍处于不断探索和发展的阶段,至今尚无成熟的理论体系和评价方法。本文前人研究的基础上,运用生态学理论和安全评价理论和相关的方法,对城市人居环境生态的安全评价作了进一步的探索研究。采用压力-状态-响应(P－S－R)模型和层次分析法(AHP),在充分分析影响城市生态安全各方面多因素的基础上,建立了以城市人居环境生态安全为目标层,系统压力与状态和系统响应为第一准则层,资源现状与环境质量、人口发展状况、社会发展状况、经济发展状况、生态系统响应、经济响应和人文社会响应等为第二准则层以及以25个城市环境基本因素为指标层的城市人居环境生态安全评价指标体系。
在上述研究的基础上,本文以江西省的11个地级市生态环境情况为对象进行实例研究,对其生态环境安全等级进行了确定,并有针对性地提出了城市人居环境生态安全管理的对策。研究及应用结果表明,基于BP人工神经网络与Matlab平台(Delphi7和Matlab6.5等)相结合的城市人居环境生态安全评价模型是可行的,评价结果与目前各地级市的生态环境状况基本吻合。
The great progress of science and technology has met the needs of human growing material and cultural, while it has caused many environmental problems at the same time. It is also a serious threat to human health and the sustainable development of human ecological environment, especially, the influence to the ecological security of city which is the important human settlements is the most serious.
The ecological security of human settlements of city is one of the problems faced by the society. We estimate the ecological security of human settlements of city scientifically and rationally, which make public profoundly understand the importance of ecological environment, and promote the operability of ecological environment management and construction of the city, and provide good human settlements. What's more, the sustainable development of human ecological security will come true.
At present, the ecological security assessment of human settlements of city is still at exploring constantly and developing stage, and there are no ripe theoretical system and appraisal method. Based on the previous studies, the paper uses the theory of ecology and the theory of safety assessment and related methods, and then makes further study to the security assessment of the human settlements of city. In this article, using the PSR model and AHP, bases on all aspects of many factors, a index system of ecological safety evaluation of human settlement of city has been established, firstly, which uses ecological safety of human settlement of city as the target layer; secondly, uses systematic pressure and the state and systematic response as the first rule layer; thirdly, uses resource status and environmental quality, the status of population development, the status of social development, economic response, ecological and social response and so on as the second rule layer; finally, uses 25 basic elements of city environment as the index layer.
On the basis of the said research, this paper, taking ecological environment situations of 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province for instances, sets the security ratings of ecological environment, and proposes some measures for ecological security management. According to research and application results, it is feasible of the evaluation model of ecological environment security of human settlements of city, which combines BP neural net work with Matlab. The evaluation result is basically in line with circumstances of prefecture-level cities.
城市人居环境的生态安全问题是当今社会所共同面对的问题,科学合理地评价城市人居环境的生态安全,使公众深刻理解人居生态环境问题的严重性,提升城市生态环境管理和建设工作科学性和可操作性,为城市提供良好的人居环境,进而实现人类生存环境生态安全的可持续发展。
城市人居环境生态安全的评价目前仍处于不断探索和发展的阶段,至今尚无成熟的理论体系和评价方法。本文前人研究的基础上,运用生态学理论和安全评价理论和相关的方法,对城市人居环境生态的安全评价作了进一步的探索研究。采用压力-状态-响应(P－S－R)模型和层次分析法(AHP),在充分分析影响城市生态安全各方面多因素的基础上,建立了以城市人居环境生态安全为目标层,系统压力与状态和系统响应为第一准则层,资源现状与环境质量、人口发展状况、社会发展状况、经济发展状况、生态系统响应、经济响应和人文社会响应等为第二准则层以及以25个城市环境基本因素为指标层的城市人居环境生态安全评价指标体系。
在上述研究的基础上,本文以江西省的11个地级市生态环境情况为对象进行实例研究,对其生态环境安全等级进行了确定,并有针对性地提出了城市人居环境生态安全管理的对策。研究及应用结果表明,基于BP人工神经网络与Matlab平台(Delphi7和Matlab6.5等)相结合的城市人居环境生态安全评价模型是可行的,评价结果与目前各地级市的生态环境状况基本吻合。
The great progress of science and technology has met the needs of human growing material and cultural, while it has caused many environmental problems at the same time. It is also a serious threat to human health and the sustainable development of human ecological environment, especially, the influence to the ecological security of city which is the important human settlements is the most serious.
The ecological security of human settlements of city is one of the problems faced by the society. We estimate the ecological security of human settlements of city scientifically and rationally, which make public profoundly understand the importance of ecological environment, and promote the operability of ecological environment management and construction of the city, and provide good human settlements. What's more, the sustainable development of human ecological security will come true.
At present, the ecological security assessment of human settlements of city is still at exploring constantly and developing stage, and there are no ripe theoretical system and appraisal method. Based on the previous studies, the paper uses the theory of ecology and the theory of safety assessment and related methods, and then makes further study to the security assessment of the human settlements of city. In this article, using the PSR model and AHP, bases on all aspects of many factors, a index system of ecological safety evaluation of human settlement of city has been established, firstly, which uses ecological safety of human settlement of city as the target layer; secondly, uses systematic pressure and the state and systematic response as the first rule layer; thirdly, uses resource status and environmental quality, the status of population development, the status of social development, economic response, ecological and social response and so on as the second rule layer; finally, uses 25 basic elements of city environment as the index layer.
On the basis of the said research, this paper, taking ecological environment situations of 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province for instances, sets the security ratings of ecological environment, and proposes some measures for ecological security management. According to research and application results, it is feasible of the evaluation model of ecological environment security of human settlements of city, which combines BP neural net work with Matlab. The evaluation result is basically in line with circumstances of prefecture-level cities.
引文
[1]郑万生、王继富等.生态安全问题的全球观与战略对策[J].哈尔滨学院学报,2002,23(7)：120-122
[2]聂梅生、柴文忠.我国人居环境现状和改善对策[J].中国人口、资源和环境,N0.1994.9
[3]沈建国、于立等译.城市化的世界.联合国人居中心(生境编著),中国建筑工业出版社
[4]庞海峰,樊烨,丁睿,中国城市人口增长过程及差异研究[J],地理与地理信息科学,2006,Vo1.22 No.2：69-72[5]中华人民共和国国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴2009.北京：中国统计出版社,2009
[6]邓茂林,张斌,余波等.城市人居环境评价的综述与展望[J].统计与决策,2008,23：148-150
[7]常战英,范韬.关于环境保护的可持续发展[J].工业安全与环保,2002,28(6)：3-6
[8]吴良镛.开拓面向新世纪的人居环境学[J].建筑学报,1995(3)
[9]李王鸣.城市人居环境评价[M].科学出版社,1999,19
[10]吴良镛.人居环境科学导论.北京：中国建筑出版社,2001
[11]刘平、王如松.城市人居环境生态设计.城市环境与城市生态,2000
[12]毛文永.生态环境影响评价概论[M].中国环境科学出版社,2003：315
[13]吴启焰.大城市居住空间分异研究的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2001：105
[14]谢文慧、邓卫.城市经济学[M].清华大学出版社,1996：195
[15]尹希成.生态安全——一种新的安全观.科技日报,1999,11,07
[16]王逸舟.全球时代的国际安全[M].上海人民出版杜,1999
[17]U.S. EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency). Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, Report No. EPA (6301R-92/001). US Environmental Protection Agency, Risk Assessment Forum, Washington, D. C.1992
[18]Quigley TM, Arbelbide SJ, eds. (1996) An Assessment of Ecosystem components in the Interior Columbia Basin and Portions of the Klamath and Great Basins. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-WWW. U. S. Department of Agriculture. Forest Service, Pacific Northeast Research Station, Portland, OR
[19]Barnthouse LW. Suterll GW. Use Manual for Ecological Risk Assessment[C]. ORNL. 1988,6251
[20]Hibeck A, Baumgartner M, Fried PM. Effect of transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis corn fed prey on mortality and development time of immature Chrysoperla cameo (NacuropterarChrysopidae) [1]. Environmental Entomology,1998,27(2):480-87.
[21]Losey JE, Rayor LS, Carter ME. Transgenic pollen harms monarch larvae [J]. Nature, 1999,399:214
[22]Taylor C. Monarch butterflies may be threatened in their North American range [J]. Environmental Review,1999,6 (4):1-9
[23]Anonymous. Field testing of over 40 different transgenic crops[J]. The Gene Exchange.1996,6 (4):11
[24]Rapport D. J., Evaluating and Monitoring the Health of Large-Scale Ecosystems, Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag,1995, P5-31.
[25]Rapport D. J, R. Costanza & A. J. McMichael. Assessing ecosystem health[J]. Trends in Ecology and Evolution,1999,3:397-402
[26]O'Neill RV, Hunsaker CT, Jones KB, Rliters KH, Wickham JD, Schwartz PM, Goodman IA, Jackson BL and Baillargeon WS. Monitoring environmental quality at the landscape scale[J]. BopScience,1997,47(8):513-519.
[27]王如松.城市生态学及其发展策略.中国环境科学出版社,1991,18
[28]刘健.转变认识观念.促进人居环境的可持续发展[J].城市规划,1997,5
[29]董宪军.生态城市论.中国社会科学出版社,2002
[30]杨朝飞.建设高质量的生态示范区.环境保护.2000,1：16-19
[31]李丽萍.城市人居环境[[M].中国轻工业出版社,2001；184
[32]李丽萍.城市人居环境[[M].中国轻工业出版社,2001；9
[33]康慕谊.城市生态与城市环境.北京：科学出版社,1997
[34]张坤民.可持续发展论.北京：中国环境科学出版社,1997
[35]Ren Ren. About acid rain in China:the past, the present and the future. Proceedings of Second International Joint Seminar on the Regional Deposition Processes in the Atmosphere. Beijing, China,90-94
[36]朱大奇,史慧等.人工神经网络原理及应用[M].科学出版社,2005：1-2
[37]HOSPFIELD J. Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computer abilities[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci,1982,79(6):2554-2558
[38]Gordeeva E V. Katritzky A R. Shcherbukhin V V, et al, J Chem Inf Comput Sci. 1993,33:102
[39]尹朝庆、尹皓.人工智能与专家系统[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2002,1
[40]周海林.资源型城市可持续发展评价指标体系研究.地域研究与开发,2000(1)
[41]宋永昌等.生态城市的指标体系与评价方法.城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(5)：16-19
[42]杨京平、卢剑波.生态安全的系统分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2002
[43]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴(2002)[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2002
[44]陈青慧等.城市生活居住环境质量评价方法初探.城市规划,1999
[45]左伟等.区域生态安全评价指标与标准研究[J].地理学与国土研究,2002,18(1)：67-71
[46]王淑红.基于神经网络的选矿厂数学模型及应用研究[D].昆明理工大学,2002,3
[47](美)Mehmend Kantardzic著.闪四清、陈茵、程雁等译.数据挖掘——概念、模型、方法和算法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2003,8
[48]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴(2009)[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2009
[49]鉴明.国典型生态环境破坏现状及其利用研究论文集[C].北京：科学出版社,1996
[50]姜青舫.工程建设对生物的影响分析[M].2002
[51]金鉴明.中国典型生态环境破坏现状及其利用研究论文集[C].北京：科学出版社,1996
[52]郭中伟.建设国家生态安全预警与维护体系.科技导报,2001.1,54-56
[2]聂梅生、柴文忠.我国人居环境现状和改善对策[J].中国人口、资源和环境,N0.1994.9
[3]沈建国、于立等译.城市化的世界.联合国人居中心(生境编著),中国建筑工业出版社
[4]庞海峰,樊烨,丁睿,中国城市人口增长过程及差异研究[J],地理与地理信息科学,2006,Vo1.22 No.2：69-72[5]中华人民共和国国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴2009.北京：中国统计出版社,2009
[6]邓茂林,张斌,余波等.城市人居环境评价的综述与展望[J].统计与决策,2008,23：148-150
[7]常战英,范韬.关于环境保护的可持续发展[J].工业安全与环保,2002,28(6)：3-6
[8]吴良镛.开拓面向新世纪的人居环境学[J].建筑学报,1995(3)
[9]李王鸣.城市人居环境评价[M].科学出版社,1999,19
[10]吴良镛.人居环境科学导论.北京：中国建筑出版社,2001
[11]刘平、王如松.城市人居环境生态设计.城市环境与城市生态,2000
[12]毛文永.生态环境影响评价概论[M].中国环境科学出版社,2003：315
[13]吴启焰.大城市居住空间分异研究的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2001：105
[14]谢文慧、邓卫.城市经济学[M].清华大学出版社,1996：195
[15]尹希成.生态安全——一种新的安全观.科技日报,1999,11,07
[16]王逸舟.全球时代的国际安全[M].上海人民出版杜,1999
[17]U.S. EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency). Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, Report No. EPA (6301R-92/001). US Environmental Protection Agency, Risk Assessment Forum, Washington, D. C.1992
[18]Quigley TM, Arbelbide SJ, eds. (1996) An Assessment of Ecosystem components in the Interior Columbia Basin and Portions of the Klamath and Great Basins. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-WWW. U. S. Department of Agriculture. Forest Service, Pacific Northeast Research Station, Portland, OR
[19]Barnthouse LW. Suterll GW. Use Manual for Ecological Risk Assessment[C]. ORNL. 1988,6251
[20]Hibeck A, Baumgartner M, Fried PM. Effect of transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis corn fed prey on mortality and development time of immature Chrysoperla cameo (NacuropterarChrysopidae) [1]. Environmental Entomology,1998,27(2):480-87.
[21]Losey JE, Rayor LS, Carter ME. Transgenic pollen harms monarch larvae [J]. Nature, 1999,399:214
[22]Taylor C. Monarch butterflies may be threatened in their North American range [J]. Environmental Review,1999,6 (4):1-9
[23]Anonymous. Field testing of over 40 different transgenic crops[J]. The Gene Exchange.1996,6 (4):11
[24]Rapport D. J., Evaluating and Monitoring the Health of Large-Scale Ecosystems, Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag,1995, P5-31.
[25]Rapport D. J, R. Costanza & A. J. McMichael. Assessing ecosystem health[J]. Trends in Ecology and Evolution,1999,3:397-402
[26]O'Neill RV, Hunsaker CT, Jones KB, Rliters KH, Wickham JD, Schwartz PM, Goodman IA, Jackson BL and Baillargeon WS. Monitoring environmental quality at the landscape scale[J]. BopScience,1997,47(8):513-519.
[27]王如松.城市生态学及其发展策略.中国环境科学出版社,1991,18
[28]刘健.转变认识观念.促进人居环境的可持续发展[J].城市规划,1997,5
[29]董宪军.生态城市论.中国社会科学出版社,2002
[30]杨朝飞.建设高质量的生态示范区.环境保护.2000,1：16-19
[31]李丽萍.城市人居环境[[M].中国轻工业出版社,2001；184
[32]李丽萍.城市人居环境[[M].中国轻工业出版社,2001；9
[33]康慕谊.城市生态与城市环境.北京：科学出版社,1997
[34]张坤民.可持续发展论.北京：中国环境科学出版社,1997
[35]Ren Ren. About acid rain in China:the past, the present and the future. Proceedings of Second International Joint Seminar on the Regional Deposition Processes in the Atmosphere. Beijing, China,90-94
[36]朱大奇,史慧等.人工神经网络原理及应用[M].科学出版社,2005：1-2
[37]HOSPFIELD J. Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computer abilities[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci,1982,79(6):2554-2558
[38]Gordeeva E V. Katritzky A R. Shcherbukhin V V, et al, J Chem Inf Comput Sci. 1993,33:102
[39]尹朝庆、尹皓.人工智能与专家系统[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2002,1
[40]周海林.资源型城市可持续发展评价指标体系研究.地域研究与开发,2000(1)
[41]宋永昌等.生态城市的指标体系与评价方法.城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(5)：16-19
[42]杨京平、卢剑波.生态安全的系统分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2002
[43]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴(2002)[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2002
[44]陈青慧等.城市生活居住环境质量评价方法初探.城市规划,1999
[45]左伟等.区域生态安全评价指标与标准研究[J].地理学与国土研究,2002,18(1)：67-71
[46]王淑红.基于神经网络的选矿厂数学模型及应用研究[D].昆明理工大学,2002,3
[47](美)Mehmend Kantardzic著.闪四清、陈茵、程雁等译.数据挖掘——概念、模型、方法和算法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2003,8
[48]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴(2009)[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2009
[49]鉴明.国典型生态环境破坏现状及其利用研究论文集[C].北京：科学出版社,1996
[50]姜青舫.工程建设对生物的影响分析[M].2002
[51]金鉴明.中国典型生态环境破坏现状及其利用研究论文集[C].北京：科学出版社,1996
[52]郭中伟.建设国家生态安全预警与维护体系.科技导报,2001.1,54-56