重庆市生态足迹动态变化与预测研究
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摘要
应用生态足迹理论和方法可以核算某区域的资源利用情况,定量测度该区域的人类活动与自然禀赋的和谐情况,进而评价该区域可持续发展状态。
本文的研究对象是年轻的直辖市—重庆。自改革开放尤其是直辖后,重庆市经济发展取得了显著成效。但是,由于重庆市同时兼备大城市和大农村特点,目前又作为“统筹城乡”试点城市,正实施“农转城”的大战略,因此,其发展是否可持续对本地区乃至全国将产生重要影响,迫切要求对此展开深入调查与探析。为此,本文借鉴生态足迹理论与方法,分时段地计算了重庆市1985～2009年25年来的生态足迹动态变化情况,对比分析了重庆市直辖前后的生态足迹变化情况,并系统分析了重庆市生态足迹变化与经济发展的耦合关系;同时,为响应国家统筹城乡政策,本文还对其生态足迹与人口结构进行了相关性分析,并结合重庆市情建立了模型预测了重庆市“农转城”后的生态变化情况。
研究结果表明,1985～2009年重庆市生态足迹总体上呈逐年上升的趋势,且25年来一直处于生态赤字状态,未来生态赤字仍将呈逐年扩大的态势。
为与其他城市生态文明建设情况进行比较,本文选取了生态文明高、中、低水平的17个城市。结果表明,重庆在17个城市中处于中低水平,与北京、天津、上海三个直辖市相比,万元GDP足迹最高,同时单位土地GDP的产值是最低。由此表明,重庆市与发达城市相比,资源的利用水平还相当低。
此外,本文根据计算结果分析了造成重庆生态赤字的原因,并对应地提出了“降赤”措施,诸如优化产业结构、提高资源利用率、转变消费结构、合理改变人口结构等减缓措施,由此可以提高该区的生态承载力。
Ecological footprint theory is used for calculation of resource utilization certain areas quantitatively measure, through a country or region's human activity and the harmony of nature endowments, and then evaluate the state of regional sustainable development.
This research object is young municipalities - chongqing, since reform and opening up, especially after crown ,Its economic development has made remarkable achievement. However,Chongqing have both at the big cities and large rural characteristics, and as an "urban and rural"pilot citie is implementing the grand strategy called "farmers to the city ". Therefore, its development is sustainable and the country of the region will have significant impact, an urgent need for this in-depth investigation and analysis.So,the paper draws ecological footprint theory and Methods to calculate the time in 25 years in Chongqing dynamic changes of ecological footprint, comparative analysis of the Chongqing Municipality after the change of the ecological footprint, and systematic analysis of the Ecological Footprint of Chongqing's economic development coupled with the relationship; At the same time,in response to the national urban and rural policy, The paper analyzed the ecological footprint associated with the population structure and combined the situation of chongqing to establish a model to predict the city’s ecological changes after the "farmers to the city" .
The results show that from 1985 to 2009, overall ecological footprint of Chongqing was a rising trend year by year. and the25 years has been in a state of ecological deficit, Ecological deficit next year was to expand the trend will continue.
For compared the construction of ecological civilization with other cities. This paper selected ecological civilization of high, medium, low levels of 17 cities for horizontal comparison. The results show that Chongqing in 17 cities in the middle of a low level, and compared with Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, the three municipalities, the highest footprint million GDP, and GDP unit of land is the lowest output value, This also shows that the Chongqing compared with the developed city its resource utilization level is very low.
In addition, the paper according to the results, analyzed the reasons causing ecological deficit in Chongqing, and put forward corresponding the "deficit drop"measures, such as optimize the industrial structure, improve resource utilization, changes in consumption structure, changes in population structure and reasonable mitigation measures to improve the area's ecological carrying capacity and so on, It can improve the area's ecological carrying capacity.
本文的研究对象是年轻的直辖市—重庆。自改革开放尤其是直辖后,重庆市经济发展取得了显著成效。但是,由于重庆市同时兼备大城市和大农村特点,目前又作为“统筹城乡”试点城市,正实施“农转城”的大战略,因此,其发展是否可持续对本地区乃至全国将产生重要影响,迫切要求对此展开深入调查与探析。为此,本文借鉴生态足迹理论与方法,分时段地计算了重庆市1985～2009年25年来的生态足迹动态变化情况,对比分析了重庆市直辖前后的生态足迹变化情况,并系统分析了重庆市生态足迹变化与经济发展的耦合关系;同时,为响应国家统筹城乡政策,本文还对其生态足迹与人口结构进行了相关性分析,并结合重庆市情建立了模型预测了重庆市“农转城”后的生态变化情况。
研究结果表明,1985～2009年重庆市生态足迹总体上呈逐年上升的趋势,且25年来一直处于生态赤字状态,未来生态赤字仍将呈逐年扩大的态势。
为与其他城市生态文明建设情况进行比较,本文选取了生态文明高、中、低水平的17个城市。结果表明,重庆在17个城市中处于中低水平,与北京、天津、上海三个直辖市相比,万元GDP足迹最高,同时单位土地GDP的产值是最低。由此表明,重庆市与发达城市相比,资源的利用水平还相当低。
此外,本文根据计算结果分析了造成重庆生态赤字的原因,并对应地提出了“降赤”措施,诸如优化产业结构、提高资源利用率、转变消费结构、合理改变人口结构等减缓措施,由此可以提高该区的生态承载力。
Ecological footprint theory is used for calculation of resource utilization certain areas quantitatively measure, through a country or region's human activity and the harmony of nature endowments, and then evaluate the state of regional sustainable development.
This research object is young municipalities - chongqing, since reform and opening up, especially after crown ,Its economic development has made remarkable achievement. However,Chongqing have both at the big cities and large rural characteristics, and as an "urban and rural"pilot citie is implementing the grand strategy called "farmers to the city ". Therefore, its development is sustainable and the country of the region will have significant impact, an urgent need for this in-depth investigation and analysis.So,the paper draws ecological footprint theory and Methods to calculate the time in 25 years in Chongqing dynamic changes of ecological footprint, comparative analysis of the Chongqing Municipality after the change of the ecological footprint, and systematic analysis of the Ecological Footprint of Chongqing's economic development coupled with the relationship; At the same time,in response to the national urban and rural policy, The paper analyzed the ecological footprint associated with the population structure and combined the situation of chongqing to establish a model to predict the city’s ecological changes after the "farmers to the city" .
The results show that from 1985 to 2009, overall ecological footprint of Chongqing was a rising trend year by year. and the25 years has been in a state of ecological deficit, Ecological deficit next year was to expand the trend will continue.
For compared the construction of ecological civilization with other cities. This paper selected ecological civilization of high, medium, low levels of 17 cities for horizontal comparison. The results show that Chongqing in 17 cities in the middle of a low level, and compared with Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, the three municipalities, the highest footprint million GDP, and GDP unit of land is the lowest output value, This also shows that the Chongqing compared with the developed city its resource utilization level is very low.
In addition, the paper according to the results, analyzed the reasons causing ecological deficit in Chongqing, and put forward corresponding the "deficit drop"measures, such as optimize the industrial structure, improve resource utilization, changes in consumption structure, changes in population structure and reasonable mitigation measures to improve the area's ecological carrying capacity and so on, It can improve the area's ecological carrying capacity.
引文
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