中国西南扶贫世行贷款项目实施效果评价
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摘要
中国西南扶贫世行贷款项目是一个创新性的扶贫项目,其目的不仅是大幅度降低项目区绝对贫困程度,而且要探索和验证一种跨地区、跨行业的多种手段综合扶贫的方法。因此,针对西南扶贫世行贷款项目实施效果评价有助于扶贫方法的探索,为此类项目的实施提供参考依据。
在对该项目进行介绍的基础上,构建了实施效果评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对指标进行筛选,将多指标转化为少数几个影响项目实施效果的综合指标,避免了信息的重叠,使综合指标不仅保留了原始变量的主要信息,彼此之间又不相关。最后采用模糊综合评价对该项目在三省(区)的相关数据进行测评,结果表明三省(区)的实施效果基本达到了预期水平。
The World Bank Loan Project of helping the poor in southwest China is an innovative anti-poverty projects. The purpose is not only to reduce the level of absolute poverty largely,but also to explore and validate a cross-regional, cross-industry integrated method of reducing poverty. Therefore, the implementation effect Evaluation of the World Bank loan project of helping the poor in southwest administers to explore the method, and provides a reference for such projects.
Based on the circumstances of the project, the comprehensive evaluation index system is establishes. Then the principal components analysis(PCA)is used to filtrate the indexes in order to avoid the overlap among the information. Many indexes are turned to a few comprehensive indexes which influence the project implementation effect. The comprehensive indexes are irrelevant with each other but hold the main information of the original variable. Then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to test and evaluate the relevant data in three provinces and the results show that the implementation effect in project area reaches the exceptive level basically.
在对该项目进行介绍的基础上,构建了实施效果评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对指标进行筛选,将多指标转化为少数几个影响项目实施效果的综合指标,避免了信息的重叠,使综合指标不仅保留了原始变量的主要信息,彼此之间又不相关。最后采用模糊综合评价对该项目在三省(区)的相关数据进行测评,结果表明三省(区)的实施效果基本达到了预期水平。
The World Bank Loan Project of helping the poor in southwest China is an innovative anti-poverty projects. The purpose is not only to reduce the level of absolute poverty largely,but also to explore and validate a cross-regional, cross-industry integrated method of reducing poverty. Therefore, the implementation effect Evaluation of the World Bank loan project of helping the poor in southwest administers to explore the method, and provides a reference for such projects.
Based on the circumstances of the project, the comprehensive evaluation index system is establishes. Then the principal components analysis(PCA)is used to filtrate the indexes in order to avoid the overlap among the information. Many indexes are turned to a few comprehensive indexes which influence the project implementation effect. The comprehensive indexes are irrelevant with each other but hold the main information of the original variable. Then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to test and evaluate the relevant data in three provinces and the results show that the implementation effect in project area reaches the exceptive level basically.
引文
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[6]赵英嘉.世界银行贷款项目的后评价.技术经济,2000,12(156):63-65
[7]Deepa Narayan.Empowerment and Poverty Reduction.A Sourcebook,The World Bank,2002
[8]蔺德刚.基于世界银行贷款的中国基础教育项目效益指标评价体系研究:[硕士学位论文].吉林:吉林大学,2006
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[10]江高.模糊层次综合评价法及其应用:[硕士学位论文].天津:天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,2005
[11]Robert C, James J B. Fuzzy hierarchical analysis: the Lambda-Max method. Fuzzy Set System, 2001, 120:181-195
[12]P.Billaudel, A.Devillez, G.Villermain Lecolier. Performance evaluation of fuzzy classification methods designed for real time application. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,1999,(20):1-20
[13]Donato.J.M., Barbieri.E. Mathematical representation of fuzzy membership functions. System Theory. 1995:12-14
[14]Chen A M.Aggregation fuzzy opinions in the group desion-making environment.Cybernetics and Systems,1998,29:363-376
[15]钟庆华.基于主成分分析的企业经营绩效评价研究.天府新论,2008,6:91-93
[16]苟兴旺,薛惠锋,寇晓东.基于主成分分析的高校竞争力评价.决策参考.2008,12:56-58
[17]杨宏林.基于主成分分析的企业竞争力模糊评价模型.统计与信息论坛,2004,19(5):47-50
[18]林和平,杨晨.模糊主成分分析方法的研究与分析.航空计算技术,2006,36(6):16-20
[19]Emilio Marengo, Elisa Robottia , Pier Giorgio Righettib,Francesca Antonuccub .New approach based on fuzzy logic and principal component analysis for the classification of two-dimensional maps in health and disease [J].Application to lymphomas Journal of Chromatography A,2003,(1004):13-28
[20]HORIA F.POP.Principal components analysis based on a fuzzy sets approach.STUDIA UNIV.BABES-BOLYAI,INFORMATICA,Volume XLVI,Number 2,2001:45-52
[21]C Sarbu ,H F Pop.Principal component analysis versus fuzzy principal component analysis A cased study :the quality of Danube water (1995-1996).Talanta 65,2005:1215-1220
[22]彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊(Fuzzy)数学及其应用.湖北:武汉大学出版社,2004
[23]贾明辉,华志强.主成分分析数据处理方法探讨.内蒙古民族大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):379-381
[24]黄建军.主成分分析法及模糊综合评判法用于医院科室效益评价的对比.中国医院统计,2007,14(3):233-235
[25]Agilent Technologies.Principal Component Analysis [EB/OL].[2005-01-01].http://www.chem.agilent.com/eag/bsp/sig/downloads/pdf/pca.pdf
[26]JOLLIFFE 1 T.Principal component analysis .Springer:Series in statistics,2002
[27]王学民.对主成分分析中综合得分方法的质疑.统计与决策,2007,23(8):31-32
[28]The SWPRP Fouth Supervision Mission,"China:Southwest Poverty Reducion Project Fourth Supervision AIDE MEMOIRE",November,12,1996,Washington
[29]马新宏.基于AHP的模糊综合评价在市场营销渠道效果评价中的应用.供应链,2008,9:90-91
[30]Loargoven Van,Pedrycz W.A fuzzy extension of saaty's priority theory.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1983,11(1):229-241
[31]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法.北京:科学出版社,2000:19-23
[32]童英伟,刘志斌,初玲玲.基于模糊综合评价的大气质量评价.辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2008,27:311-313
[33]刘淡宁.基于模糊综合法的创业投资项目评价研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学,2008
[34]WANG X Z ,WANG Y D,WANG L J.Improving Fuzzy C-means clustering based on feature-weight learning .Pattern Recognition Letters,2004,25(10):1123-1132
[35]王丽娟,关守义,王晓龙,等.基于属性权重的Fuzzy C Mean算法.计算机学报,2006,29(10):1797-1802
[36]李振光.基于信息熵的化工企业供应商选择模糊综合评价模型:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京化工大学,2008
[37]王莹.房地产企业营销能力模糊综合评价实证研究:[硕士学位论文].陕西:西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2008
[38]孙红卫,徐天和,王玖.主成分分析用于综合评价合理性的探讨.中国卫生统计,2008,25(4):425-427
[39]徐丽.多目标模糊优选理论在投资项目评价中的应用.武汉水利电力大学学报,1997,(4):104-106
[40]叶宗裕.主成分综合评价方法存在的问题及改进.统计与信息论坛,2004,10(2):29-34
[41]NGUYEN D,DAS A,MEMIK G,etal.A Reconfigurable Architecture for Network Intrusion Detection Using Principal Component Analysis[C]//Proceeding of the 2006 ACM/SIGDA 14th international symposium on Field programmable gate arrays.Monterey:CA,2006
[42]孟生旺.用主成分分析法进行多指标综合评价注意的问题.统计研究,1992,(4):36
[2]孙涌.中国西南扶贫世界银行贷款项目贵州项目区的现状及其发展.贵州财经学院,1997,2:30-34
[3]李莉.世界银行贷款项目对我国的影响.价值工程,2006,12:159-260
[4]王瑞,陈军,姚佐文.基于项目成功度评价方法的世行贷款农业科技项目绩效评价研究.中国农学通报,2008,24(9):517-521
[5]刘玉侠,张云东,鹿松.蒙城县实施世界银行贷款项目的成效与今后发展措施.安徽农学通报,2008,14(19):31-32
[6]赵英嘉.世界银行贷款项目的后评价.技术经济,2000,12(156):63-65
[7]Deepa Narayan.Empowerment and Poverty Reduction.A Sourcebook,The World Bank,2002
[8]蔺德刚.基于世界银行贷款的中国基础教育项目效益指标评价体系研究:[硕士学位论文].吉林:吉林大学,2006
[9]邢向阳.基于模糊综合评价的企业集团子公司业绩评价研究:[硕士学位论文].西安:西北大学,2008
[10]江高.模糊层次综合评价法及其应用:[硕士学位论文].天津:天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,2005
[11]Robert C, James J B. Fuzzy hierarchical analysis: the Lambda-Max method. Fuzzy Set System, 2001, 120:181-195
[12]P.Billaudel, A.Devillez, G.Villermain Lecolier. Performance evaluation of fuzzy classification methods designed for real time application. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,1999,(20):1-20
[13]Donato.J.M., Barbieri.E. Mathematical representation of fuzzy membership functions. System Theory. 1995:12-14
[14]Chen A M.Aggregation fuzzy opinions in the group desion-making environment.Cybernetics and Systems,1998,29:363-376
[15]钟庆华.基于主成分分析的企业经营绩效评价研究.天府新论,2008,6:91-93
[16]苟兴旺,薛惠锋,寇晓东.基于主成分分析的高校竞争力评价.决策参考.2008,12:56-58
[17]杨宏林.基于主成分分析的企业竞争力模糊评价模型.统计与信息论坛,2004,19(5):47-50
[18]林和平,杨晨.模糊主成分分析方法的研究与分析.航空计算技术,2006,36(6):16-20
[19]Emilio Marengo, Elisa Robottia , Pier Giorgio Righettib,Francesca Antonuccub .New approach based on fuzzy logic and principal component analysis for the classification of two-dimensional maps in health and disease [J].Application to lymphomas Journal of Chromatography A,2003,(1004):13-28
[20]HORIA F.POP.Principal components analysis based on a fuzzy sets approach.STUDIA UNIV.BABES-BOLYAI,INFORMATICA,Volume XLVI,Number 2,2001:45-52
[21]C Sarbu ,H F Pop.Principal component analysis versus fuzzy principal component analysis A cased study :the quality of Danube water (1995-1996).Talanta 65,2005:1215-1220
[22]彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊(Fuzzy)数学及其应用.湖北:武汉大学出版社,2004
[23]贾明辉,华志强.主成分分析数据处理方法探讨.内蒙古民族大学学报(自然科学版),2008,23(4):379-381
[24]黄建军.主成分分析法及模糊综合评判法用于医院科室效益评价的对比.中国医院统计,2007,14(3):233-235
[25]Agilent Technologies.Principal Component Analysis [EB/OL].[2005-01-01].http://www.chem.agilent.com/eag/bsp/sig/downloads/pdf/pca.pdf
[26]JOLLIFFE 1 T.Principal component analysis .Springer:Series in statistics,2002
[27]王学民.对主成分分析中综合得分方法的质疑.统计与决策,2007,23(8):31-32
[28]The SWPRP Fouth Supervision Mission,"China:Southwest Poverty Reducion Project Fourth Supervision AIDE MEMOIRE",November,12,1996,Washington
[29]马新宏.基于AHP的模糊综合评价在市场营销渠道效果评价中的应用.供应链,2008,9:90-91
[30]Loargoven Van,Pedrycz W.A fuzzy extension of saaty's priority theory.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1983,11(1):229-241
[31]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法.北京:科学出版社,2000:19-23
[32]童英伟,刘志斌,初玲玲.基于模糊综合评价的大气质量评价.辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2008,27:311-313
[33]刘淡宁.基于模糊综合法的创业投资项目评价研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学,2008
[34]WANG X Z ,WANG Y D,WANG L J.Improving Fuzzy C-means clustering based on feature-weight learning .Pattern Recognition Letters,2004,25(10):1123-1132
[35]王丽娟,关守义,王晓龙,等.基于属性权重的Fuzzy C Mean算法.计算机学报,2006,29(10):1797-1802
[36]李振光.基于信息熵的化工企业供应商选择模糊综合评价模型:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京化工大学,2008
[37]王莹.房地产企业营销能力模糊综合评价实证研究:[硕士学位论文].陕西:西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文,2008
[38]孙红卫,徐天和,王玖.主成分分析用于综合评价合理性的探讨.中国卫生统计,2008,25(4):425-427
[39]徐丽.多目标模糊优选理论在投资项目评价中的应用.武汉水利电力大学学报,1997,(4):104-106
[40]叶宗裕.主成分综合评价方法存在的问题及改进.统计与信息论坛,2004,10(2):29-34
[41]NGUYEN D,DAS A,MEMIK G,etal.A Reconfigurable Architecture for Network Intrusion Detection Using Principal Component Analysis[C]//Proceeding of the 2006 ACM/SIGDA 14th international symposium on Field programmable gate arrays.Monterey:CA,2006
[42]孟生旺.用主成分分析法进行多指标综合评价注意的问题.统计研究,1992,(4):36