长春市犯罪空间分析及规划管理防控
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摘要
城市犯罪是长期困扰各城市的典型社会问题之一，始终是政府管理部门、研究机构及公众关注的焦点。犯罪现象具有典型的空间属性，从空间视角展开的犯罪地理研究具有悠久的历史，是犯罪研究体系中的不可或缺重要组成部分。经过多年的发展，国外犯罪地理研究内容不断丰富，技术方法日趋成熟，基于大量实证研究的相关理论日渐完善。相比国外，我国犯罪地理研究起步较晚，由于受到数据不易获取等客观因素的限制，发展较为缓慢。随着我国城市化进程的不断加快，社会各界对犯罪问题的重视程度逐渐提高，犯罪地理研究也呈现出快速发展的势头。本研究基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的各类犯罪数据，借鉴国内外相关理论和方法，对长春市各类犯罪的空间分布特征、犯罪热点辨识、犯罪影响因子、犯罪的时空演化特征及其与城市发展的关联等方面展开深入分析和研究，并从城市规划和管理的视角探讨了犯罪的防控策略。
本文共分为七章：
第一章：绪论。明确了本研究的研究背景、研究意义、研究主要内容和研究方法。
第二章：国内外犯罪地理研究进展和理论综述。辨析了本研究涉及的几个基本概念，进而对国内外犯罪地理研究进展、现状和发展趋势进行了较为系统的分析和归纳，并重点介绍了社会解组理论、日常活动理论及其他重要相关理论的主要观点和基本内容。
第三章：长春市犯罪空间分布特征。首先对各类犯罪的数量特征进行了分析，进而以警区为单位，对长春市2008年总犯罪及各类犯罪的空间分布特征做了分析。包括各类犯罪区位商分析、基于局地Moran’sI指数的犯罪热点分析以及空间立体趋势面和插值趋势面分析。最后对几类明显的犯罪热点区域的基本特征和形成的原因做了简要的探讨。
第四章：长春市犯罪空间分布影响因子研究。在对国外各类犯罪影响因子研究总结和梳理的基础上，结合长春市实际，从多个渠道提取了社会经济、人口和土地利用三个方面可能与犯罪相关的变量因子。以街道为单位，利用回归建模的方式，剔除不显著变量而保留显著变量，逐一确定总犯罪和各类犯罪的影响因子，并对每类犯罪同各因子之间的相互关系和作用方式做了分析。在此基础上，对长春市每类犯罪影响因子的解释效力、可能的影响过程和自身特点进行了总结。本章最后对与所有犯罪类型均不存在显著关系的几个因子变量也进行了探讨。
第五章：长春市犯罪空间分布特征的演变。对长春市从2001年到2008年间各类犯罪数量变化和空间演化特征做了分析。对比了两年内各类犯罪数量特征上的变化，重点比较总犯罪和各类犯罪高发区域有无明显变化，犯罪地理重心的位移距离和方向，各区域犯罪总量和犯罪率变化情况等。进而结合同期长春市的城市发展过程，探讨了城市人口分布变化、城市空间拓展、基础设施建设和内部要素布局结构和功能变化等几方面同犯罪时空演变之间的关联。
第六章：城市规划和城市管理视角的犯罪防控策略。基于前文的研究结论和国内外关于犯罪防控的相关研究，本章首先阐明了犯罪调控的原则，进而分别从城市总体规划和详细规划两个层面探讨了城市规划视角的犯罪防控，最后从犯罪防控主体和防控策略两个角度阐述了城市管理角度的犯罪防控策略。
第七章：结论和展望。对全文各部分进行总结，并得出了全文的五个主要结论，探讨了本研究的主要贡献、创新之处和研究不足，并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。
The issue in terms of urban crime is always drawing great attentions from the city governments, the criminologists and the public.Nearly all the criminal activities have spatial attributes, which is an important starting point for criminal researches. The study concerning criminal geography which is an indispensable part of the criminology has a long history. After many years, the studies in terms of criminal geography have made significant progress with sufficient contents, diverse research technologies and matured theories.To the contrary, the studies relating to criminal geography in China are just starting for a short period with a slow pace mainly due to the limited data. Nowadays, the importance of criminal studies including the criminal geography is gradually recognized with the accelerating urbanization in most cities in China. This research examines the spatial patterns and hotspots of various kinds of criminal activities in Changchun at the police precincts level based on the data provided by the Public Security Bureau of Changchun. The factors which could relate to the crime distribution and the feature of crime evolvement are also analyzed. Finally, the crime control measure from the planning and administrative perspective are discussed.
This paper consists of seven chapters:
The first chapter is the introduction of this paper which contains the research background, research value, main headlines as well as the research approach.
The second part of this paper first clarifies the meanings of several basic definition in this paper. Then this part generalize the progress of the criminal geography in western countries and China, including the developing process, the current research status and the trend of subject development. Finally two classic theories named social disorganization theory and routine activities theory which are most frequently applied in relevant researches are introduced followed by the introductions of some other import theories in terms of crimes such as the broken window theories etc.
The third chapter examines the spatial patterns and the hotspots of various kinds of crimes in Changchun in2008. Firstly, the spatial patterns of crimes are analyzed at the level of police precincts after examining the quantitive features of each crime type using the method of location quotient, the hotspots identification based on the Local Moran's I index, and the3D and interpolation trend surface analysis using the GIS software. The characteristics of the several apparent regions with higher crime risks are analyzed at last of this chapter.
The fourth chapter explores the factors which exert direct or indirect influences on various types of crimes. At first, numbers of variables are extracted from socioeconomic, demographic, and land use aspects based on the generalization of western researches concerning criminal influential factors. The OLS regressions using these variables at the district level are conducted. The variables with coefficients which are significant are picked out and the the relationship between types of crimes and the variables are analyzed. The reasons why some variables are not related to any type of crime are also discussed at last.
The fifth chapter demonstrates the evolutional characteristics of each various crimes from2001to2008. By comparing the differences in terms of quantitive features and the spatial distributions of various crimes, the variation of regions with higher crime risks, the geographic center are analyzed, the quantities and crime rates are analyzed. Finally, by linking the developing process of Changchun these years, the author discusses the relationships between the variation of crimes and the demographic variation, the city expansion, the infrastructure construction as well as the evolution of inner structure and function.
The six chapter discusses the crime control from the planning and administrative perspective respectively. Based on the conclusions drawn above, this chapter firstly clarifies several principles when it comes to crime control, then crime control measures from the the planning perspectives which includes two aspects of general planing and detailed planning are discussed. Finally, this chapter attempts to generalize the crime control measures from the administrative perspective. Two aspects which consists of the operators, and the strategy in various spatial dimension are summarized.
The final part of this research is composed of all the six main conclusions, the contributions, novelty of this paper, as well as the limitation and the research direction in the future.
本文共分为七章：
第一章：绪论。明确了本研究的研究背景、研究意义、研究主要内容和研究方法。
第二章：国内外犯罪地理研究进展和理论综述。辨析了本研究涉及的几个基本概念，进而对国内外犯罪地理研究进展、现状和发展趋势进行了较为系统的分析和归纳，并重点介绍了社会解组理论、日常活动理论及其他重要相关理论的主要观点和基本内容。
第三章：长春市犯罪空间分布特征。首先对各类犯罪的数量特征进行了分析，进而以警区为单位，对长春市2008年总犯罪及各类犯罪的空间分布特征做了分析。包括各类犯罪区位商分析、基于局地Moran’sI指数的犯罪热点分析以及空间立体趋势面和插值趋势面分析。最后对几类明显的犯罪热点区域的基本特征和形成的原因做了简要的探讨。
第四章：长春市犯罪空间分布影响因子研究。在对国外各类犯罪影响因子研究总结和梳理的基础上，结合长春市实际，从多个渠道提取了社会经济、人口和土地利用三个方面可能与犯罪相关的变量因子。以街道为单位，利用回归建模的方式，剔除不显著变量而保留显著变量，逐一确定总犯罪和各类犯罪的影响因子，并对每类犯罪同各因子之间的相互关系和作用方式做了分析。在此基础上，对长春市每类犯罪影响因子的解释效力、可能的影响过程和自身特点进行了总结。本章最后对与所有犯罪类型均不存在显著关系的几个因子变量也进行了探讨。
第五章：长春市犯罪空间分布特征的演变。对长春市从2001年到2008年间各类犯罪数量变化和空间演化特征做了分析。对比了两年内各类犯罪数量特征上的变化，重点比较总犯罪和各类犯罪高发区域有无明显变化，犯罪地理重心的位移距离和方向，各区域犯罪总量和犯罪率变化情况等。进而结合同期长春市的城市发展过程，探讨了城市人口分布变化、城市空间拓展、基础设施建设和内部要素布局结构和功能变化等几方面同犯罪时空演变之间的关联。
第六章：城市规划和城市管理视角的犯罪防控策略。基于前文的研究结论和国内外关于犯罪防控的相关研究，本章首先阐明了犯罪调控的原则，进而分别从城市总体规划和详细规划两个层面探讨了城市规划视角的犯罪防控，最后从犯罪防控主体和防控策略两个角度阐述了城市管理角度的犯罪防控策略。
第七章：结论和展望。对全文各部分进行总结，并得出了全文的五个主要结论，探讨了本研究的主要贡献、创新之处和研究不足，并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。
The issue in terms of urban crime is always drawing great attentions from the city governments, the criminologists and the public.Nearly all the criminal activities have spatial attributes, which is an important starting point for criminal researches. The study concerning criminal geography which is an indispensable part of the criminology has a long history. After many years, the studies in terms of criminal geography have made significant progress with sufficient contents, diverse research technologies and matured theories.To the contrary, the studies relating to criminal geography in China are just starting for a short period with a slow pace mainly due to the limited data. Nowadays, the importance of criminal studies including the criminal geography is gradually recognized with the accelerating urbanization in most cities in China. This research examines the spatial patterns and hotspots of various kinds of criminal activities in Changchun at the police precincts level based on the data provided by the Public Security Bureau of Changchun. The factors which could relate to the crime distribution and the feature of crime evolvement are also analyzed. Finally, the crime control measure from the planning and administrative perspective are discussed.
This paper consists of seven chapters:
The first chapter is the introduction of this paper which contains the research background, research value, main headlines as well as the research approach.
The second part of this paper first clarifies the meanings of several basic definition in this paper. Then this part generalize the progress of the criminal geography in western countries and China, including the developing process, the current research status and the trend of subject development. Finally two classic theories named social disorganization theory and routine activities theory which are most frequently applied in relevant researches are introduced followed by the introductions of some other import theories in terms of crimes such as the broken window theories etc.
The third chapter examines the spatial patterns and the hotspots of various kinds of crimes in Changchun in2008. Firstly, the spatial patterns of crimes are analyzed at the level of police precincts after examining the quantitive features of each crime type using the method of location quotient, the hotspots identification based on the Local Moran's I index, and the3D and interpolation trend surface analysis using the GIS software. The characteristics of the several apparent regions with higher crime risks are analyzed at last of this chapter.
The fourth chapter explores the factors which exert direct or indirect influences on various types of crimes. At first, numbers of variables are extracted from socioeconomic, demographic, and land use aspects based on the generalization of western researches concerning criminal influential factors. The OLS regressions using these variables at the district level are conducted. The variables with coefficients which are significant are picked out and the the relationship between types of crimes and the variables are analyzed. The reasons why some variables are not related to any type of crime are also discussed at last.
The fifth chapter demonstrates the evolutional characteristics of each various crimes from2001to2008. By comparing the differences in terms of quantitive features and the spatial distributions of various crimes, the variation of regions with higher crime risks, the geographic center are analyzed, the quantities and crime rates are analyzed. Finally, by linking the developing process of Changchun these years, the author discusses the relationships between the variation of crimes and the demographic variation, the city expansion, the infrastructure construction as well as the evolution of inner structure and function.
The six chapter discusses the crime control from the planning and administrative perspective respectively. Based on the conclusions drawn above, this chapter firstly clarifies several principles when it comes to crime control, then crime control measures from the the planning perspectives which includes two aspects of general planing and detailed planning are discussed. Finally, this chapter attempts to generalize the crime control measures from the administrative perspective. Two aspects which consists of the operators, and the strategy in various spatial dimension are summarized.
The final part of this research is composed of all the six main conclusions, the contributions, novelty of this paper, as well as the limitation and the research direction in the future.
引文
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