化工供应链风险管理研究
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摘要
近几年来,化工供应链的风险事故不断,如氯气泄漏事件、油轮泄漏事件、地震、恐怖袭击、战争、口蹄疫、SARS及海啸等风险都给化工供应链造成了巨大的冲击,许多企业因其供应链的瓦解、失败而破产倒闭。这类事故不仅给化工供应链上下游企业,而且给环境与生命安全也带来不可估量的损失。因此,化工供应链风险管理研究对加强化工供应链运作的安全性、促进化工供应链的可持续发展、提高化工行业的竞争力,以及减少全球能源、资源耗竭和保护社会环境等都有着非常重要的现实意义;对于为化工企业进行供应链风险管理实践提供理论方法技术上的指导与支持,以及丰富完善供应链风险管理理论等都有着非常重要的理论意义。
本文研究主要分为七章,主要内容详细阐述如下。
第一章绪论,介绍了研究背景;对国内外文献进行综述;阐述了论文的研究意义,并给出论文的技术路线与内容安排。
第二章化工供应链风险基本分析,主要界定了供应链风险的涵义与类别;通过分析化工行业现状,归纳出化工供应链的特点,并进一步分析了化工供应链风险的基本特征,在此基础上提出了化工供应链风险管理理论框架。
第三章化工供应链风险识别,通过研究化工供应链的特点及对供应链风险因素的提炼,结合实证分析对化工供应链风险进行分类;并对有代表意义的两种个体风险运输风险与绿色风险作进一步的风险识别,根据对运输流程的分析归纳出运输风险的主要风险因素,利用故障树分析法发掘出绿色风险的主要风险因素。
第四章面向分类的化工供应链风险评价,首先提出风险分类下的化工供应链风险评价结构;其次利用粗糙集理论评价化工供应链总体风险,区别各类风险的重要性程度,以便有针对性地进行化工供应链个体风险控制;再次结合化工供应链的特点,对传统的运输评价模型加以改进,建立了适合化工供应链的运输风险评价模型,给出了评价流程,并通过算例进行分析;最后利用化工供应链绿色风险识别的成果,构建化工供应链绿色风险评价指标体系,建立了化工供应链绿色风险的模糊综合评价模型,给出评价流程,并结合算例进行分析。
第五章面向风险分级的化工供应链风险控制,首先研究了风险分级下的化工供应链风险控制结构,并给出一般风险的定性控制措施;其次针对总体重要风险控制,探讨了风险控制成本与风险控制效益的权衡关系,建立了机会约束模型,并给出算例分析;然后从尽可能降低化工供应链运输突发风险对供应链内部和外部造成的后果损失的角度上建立了目标规划模型,并结合算例进行分析;最后对化工供应链绿色重要风险控制问题建立了模糊规划模型,并结合算例进行分析。
第六章基于3S的化工供应链风险管理实施,提出了3S与化工供应链风险管理集成框架以及实施步骤;给出了风险评估中的风险图制作、风险控制中的运输线路优化、风险事故辅助处置以及风险事故评估与恢复等主要实施方案。
第七章总结与展望,对全文研究进行总结,提出研究的创新点,并对进一步的研究进行展望。
本文的创新点主要有以下四点:
(1)本文在充分研究化工供应链特点与化工供应链风险基本特征的基础上,通过对风险识别、评价及控制方法与技术的采纳并部分改进创新及学科交叉等,提出了化工供应链风险管理理论框架,丰富了风险管理理论。在文献资料分析的基础上结合展开化工供应链风险的实证研究,识别归纳出主要的化工供应链风险因素并对化工供应链风险进行分类,将其分为总体风险与个体风险两个层面,且个体风险主要分为运输风险、绿色风险、生产能力风险、合作关系风险和信息等风险,对风险分类是一个有益的补充。
(2)本文提出了面向分类的化工供应链风险评价结构,主要从总体风险和有代表性的个体风险(运输风险与绿色风险)两个层面进行评价,并根据评价结果进行风险分级;从评价风险发生后对化工供应链内部和外部两个维度的影响后果的角度上,借鉴传统的运输风险评价模型并进行改进,建立了化工供应链运输评价二元模型,并且根据评价结果与参数的对比将运输风险分为日常风险、一般风险和突发风险三个级别;构建了化工供应链绿色风险评价指标体系,建立了绿色风险模糊综合评价模型,根据风险性大小将绿色风险分为日常风险、一般风险和重要风险三个级别。
(3)本文提出了面向分级的化工供应链风险控制结构,原则是日常风险忽略不加以管理,一般风险则提出了定性的风险控制措施,重要风险与突发风险则从定性与定量相结合的角度加以研究;从资金约束下最大化风险控制效果的角度建立了机会约束模型,解决了如何在有限的投入范围内通过风险控制策略优化进行总体重要风险控制的问题;将运输突发风险可能对化工供应链外部造成的损失定量为社会成本,以作为化工供应链运输突发风险控制的考虑因素之一,并从综合优化个体运输成本、顾客不满意成本、社会成本三种成本的角度建立了目标规划模型,并通过算例分析进一步提出了运输突发风险控制措施;将绿色风险的三个重要风险因素——能源、资源及环境作为约束条件,从优化生产计划的角度建立了模糊规划模型来控制绿色重要风险。
(4)提出了3S(GIS、GPS、RS)与化工供应链风险管理集成框架,并给出了实施步骤和主要实施方案。基于3S的化工供应链风险管理实施研究可以弥补传统供应链风险管理有关空间可视化及空间分析上的局限性。
Recently there are not a few accidents in chemical industry supply chain, such as releasing of chlorine, leaking of oil tanker, earthquake, terrorism, warfare, mouth-foot disease, SARS and tsunami etc. Chemical industry supply chain is tremendously affected by these risks, moreover many companies are broken down for the collapse of supply chain. Such accidents bring uncountable loss not only to the upstream and downstream of supply chain but also to environment and safety of lives. Thus researching on chemical industry supply chain risk management has very important practical significance for strengthening the operational security of chemical industry supply chain, prompting the sustaining development of chemical industry supply chain, enhancing the competence of chemical industry, reducing the exhaust of global energy sources and resources, and protecting environment. It also has very important academic significance to present guidance and support on theory and technology for the supply chain risk management practice of chemical industry companies, and to help to the theory development of supply chain risk management.
This dissertation mainly includes seven chapters, which are stated in detail as following.
Chapter one is introduction. This chapter introduces the research background and gives literature review, then states the research significance, finally presents the technology routine and content arrangement of the dissertation.
Chapter two is basic risk analysis of chemical industry supply chain. This chapter gives the definition and classification of supply chain risk, concludes the features of chemical industry supply chain by analyzing the actuality of chemical industry, and analyzes the basic characteristic of chemical industry supply chain risk further. Finally the theoretic structure of chemical industry supply chain risk management is presented.
Chapter three is risk identification of chemical industry supply chain. After researching the features of chemical industry supply chain and refining the sources of chemical industry supply chain risk, this chapter classifies chemical industry supply chain risk through positive analysis. Then two representative individual risks are identified further more. The sources of transportation risk are induced through transportation process analysis, and the sources of green risk are concluded by fault-tree analysis.
Chapter four is risk assessment of chemical industry supply chain base on risk classification. Firstly this chapter presents risk assessment structure of chemical industry supply chain according to risk classification. Secondly collective risk of chemical industry supply chain is assessed by rough sets theory to distinguish the significance of individual risks, which is helpful for individual risks control. Thirdly after modifying traditional transportation risk assessment model according to the features of chemical industry supply chain, a dual model is developed for transportation risk assessment of chemical industry supply chain, then risk assessment process and numerical example are presented. Finally the green risk assessment index system of chemical industry supply chain is designed on the basis of green risk identification, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of green risk is developed, then assess process and numerical example are presented.
Chapter five is risk control of chemical industry supply chain based on risk ranking. Firstly this chapter gives the risk control structure of chemical industry supply chain according to risk ranking, and presents qualitative risk control measures; secondly chance constraint model of collective important risk control is developed by analyzing the trade-off between risk control cost and risk control benefit, then numerical example is presented; thirdly the goal programming model of transportation disruption risk control is developed to reduce the loss of internal and external of supply chain as possible, then numerical example is presented; finally the fuzzy programming model of green important risk control problem is developed and numerical example is presented to analyze further.
Chapter six is an implementation of chemical industry supply chain risk management base on 3S. This chapter presents integrated framework of 3S and chemical industry supply chain risk management, gives implementation steps, and presents main implementation plans, such as drawing out of risk map for risk assessment, transportation routine optimization for risk control, assistant disposition of risk accident, evaluation and recover of risk accident.
Chapter seven is conclusion and future work. This chapter draws the conclusion of this dissertation, moreover presents the research innovation and future work.
The innovation of this dissertation mainly contains four aspects as following:
(1) After studying on the features of chemical industry supply chain and the basic characteristic of chemical industry supply chain risk, the theoretic structure of chemical industry supply chain risk management is presented by adopting and partly modifying various theory and technology of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control, which enriches the theory of risk management. On the basis of literature analysis and positive research on chemical industry supply chain risk, the dominating risk resources of chemical industry supply chain is identified, which can be classified as collective risk and individual risk. Individual risk can be classified as transportation risk, green risk, production capacity risk, partnership risk and information risk, which is helpful for risk classification.
(2) This dissertation gives the risk assessment structure of chemical industry supply chain, which mainly assesses collective risk and representative individual risk (transportation risk and green risk) and ranks the risks according to the results of risk assessment. In the view of assessing the risk aftereffect on the internal and external of chemical industry supply chain, a dual model for transportation risk assessment is developed innovatively after modification of tradition transportation risk assessment model, then transportation risk can be ranked as daily risk, generic risk and disruption risk according to the comparison between the result of risk assessment and risk parameter. The green risk assessment index system of chemical industry supply chain is designed, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of green risk is developed, then green risk can be ranked as daily risk, generic risk and important risk according to the result of risk assessment.
(3) This dissertation presents the risk control structure of chemical industry supply chain based on risk ranking, which is to ignore the daily risk, give qualitative risk control measures for generic risk and build quantitative model for disruption risk or importation risk control. Chance constraint model of collective important risk control is developed by analyzing the trade-off between risk control cost and risk control benefit, thus it can improve risk control effect through optimizing risk control measures under restricted devotion. This dissertation considers the impossible loss of disruption risk as social cost, and the goal programming model of transportation disruption control is developed to reduce the loss of internal and external of supply chain in the view of comprehensive optimizing individual transportation cost, custom dissatisfied cost and social cost, then presents disruption risk control measures through analysis of numerical example. The fuzzy programming model of green important risk control problem is developed to optimize the production planning, while regarding three important risk sources of green (i.e. resource, energy and environment) as constraints of the model.
(4) 3S (GIS, GPS, RS), the intercross subject theory and technology is utilized for implementation of chemical industry supply chain risk management. The integrated framework of chemical industry supply chain risk management based on 3S is presented, then the implementation steps and principal implementing scheme is given. Chemical industry supply chain risk management based on 3S can do spatial information visualization and analysis, which can be helpful for the academic development of traditional supply chain risk management.
本文研究主要分为七章,主要内容详细阐述如下。
第一章绪论,介绍了研究背景;对国内外文献进行综述;阐述了论文的研究意义,并给出论文的技术路线与内容安排。
第二章化工供应链风险基本分析,主要界定了供应链风险的涵义与类别;通过分析化工行业现状,归纳出化工供应链的特点,并进一步分析了化工供应链风险的基本特征,在此基础上提出了化工供应链风险管理理论框架。
第三章化工供应链风险识别,通过研究化工供应链的特点及对供应链风险因素的提炼,结合实证分析对化工供应链风险进行分类;并对有代表意义的两种个体风险运输风险与绿色风险作进一步的风险识别,根据对运输流程的分析归纳出运输风险的主要风险因素,利用故障树分析法发掘出绿色风险的主要风险因素。
第四章面向分类的化工供应链风险评价,首先提出风险分类下的化工供应链风险评价结构;其次利用粗糙集理论评价化工供应链总体风险,区别各类风险的重要性程度,以便有针对性地进行化工供应链个体风险控制;再次结合化工供应链的特点,对传统的运输评价模型加以改进,建立了适合化工供应链的运输风险评价模型,给出了评价流程,并通过算例进行分析;最后利用化工供应链绿色风险识别的成果,构建化工供应链绿色风险评价指标体系,建立了化工供应链绿色风险的模糊综合评价模型,给出评价流程,并结合算例进行分析。
第五章面向风险分级的化工供应链风险控制,首先研究了风险分级下的化工供应链风险控制结构,并给出一般风险的定性控制措施;其次针对总体重要风险控制,探讨了风险控制成本与风险控制效益的权衡关系,建立了机会约束模型,并给出算例分析;然后从尽可能降低化工供应链运输突发风险对供应链内部和外部造成的后果损失的角度上建立了目标规划模型,并结合算例进行分析;最后对化工供应链绿色重要风险控制问题建立了模糊规划模型,并结合算例进行分析。
第六章基于3S的化工供应链风险管理实施,提出了3S与化工供应链风险管理集成框架以及实施步骤;给出了风险评估中的风险图制作、风险控制中的运输线路优化、风险事故辅助处置以及风险事故评估与恢复等主要实施方案。
第七章总结与展望,对全文研究进行总结,提出研究的创新点,并对进一步的研究进行展望。
本文的创新点主要有以下四点:
(1)本文在充分研究化工供应链特点与化工供应链风险基本特征的基础上,通过对风险识别、评价及控制方法与技术的采纳并部分改进创新及学科交叉等,提出了化工供应链风险管理理论框架,丰富了风险管理理论。在文献资料分析的基础上结合展开化工供应链风险的实证研究,识别归纳出主要的化工供应链风险因素并对化工供应链风险进行分类,将其分为总体风险与个体风险两个层面,且个体风险主要分为运输风险、绿色风险、生产能力风险、合作关系风险和信息等风险,对风险分类是一个有益的补充。
(2)本文提出了面向分类的化工供应链风险评价结构,主要从总体风险和有代表性的个体风险(运输风险与绿色风险)两个层面进行评价,并根据评价结果进行风险分级;从评价风险发生后对化工供应链内部和外部两个维度的影响后果的角度上,借鉴传统的运输风险评价模型并进行改进,建立了化工供应链运输评价二元模型,并且根据评价结果与参数的对比将运输风险分为日常风险、一般风险和突发风险三个级别;构建了化工供应链绿色风险评价指标体系,建立了绿色风险模糊综合评价模型,根据风险性大小将绿色风险分为日常风险、一般风险和重要风险三个级别。
(3)本文提出了面向分级的化工供应链风险控制结构,原则是日常风险忽略不加以管理,一般风险则提出了定性的风险控制措施,重要风险与突发风险则从定性与定量相结合的角度加以研究;从资金约束下最大化风险控制效果的角度建立了机会约束模型,解决了如何在有限的投入范围内通过风险控制策略优化进行总体重要风险控制的问题;将运输突发风险可能对化工供应链外部造成的损失定量为社会成本,以作为化工供应链运输突发风险控制的考虑因素之一,并从综合优化个体运输成本、顾客不满意成本、社会成本三种成本的角度建立了目标规划模型,并通过算例分析进一步提出了运输突发风险控制措施;将绿色风险的三个重要风险因素——能源、资源及环境作为约束条件,从优化生产计划的角度建立了模糊规划模型来控制绿色重要风险。
(4)提出了3S(GIS、GPS、RS)与化工供应链风险管理集成框架,并给出了实施步骤和主要实施方案。基于3S的化工供应链风险管理实施研究可以弥补传统供应链风险管理有关空间可视化及空间分析上的局限性。
Recently there are not a few accidents in chemical industry supply chain, such as releasing of chlorine, leaking of oil tanker, earthquake, terrorism, warfare, mouth-foot disease, SARS and tsunami etc. Chemical industry supply chain is tremendously affected by these risks, moreover many companies are broken down for the collapse of supply chain. Such accidents bring uncountable loss not only to the upstream and downstream of supply chain but also to environment and safety of lives. Thus researching on chemical industry supply chain risk management has very important practical significance for strengthening the operational security of chemical industry supply chain, prompting the sustaining development of chemical industry supply chain, enhancing the competence of chemical industry, reducing the exhaust of global energy sources and resources, and protecting environment. It also has very important academic significance to present guidance and support on theory and technology for the supply chain risk management practice of chemical industry companies, and to help to the theory development of supply chain risk management.
This dissertation mainly includes seven chapters, which are stated in detail as following.
Chapter one is introduction. This chapter introduces the research background and gives literature review, then states the research significance, finally presents the technology routine and content arrangement of the dissertation.
Chapter two is basic risk analysis of chemical industry supply chain. This chapter gives the definition and classification of supply chain risk, concludes the features of chemical industry supply chain by analyzing the actuality of chemical industry, and analyzes the basic characteristic of chemical industry supply chain risk further. Finally the theoretic structure of chemical industry supply chain risk management is presented.
Chapter three is risk identification of chemical industry supply chain. After researching the features of chemical industry supply chain and refining the sources of chemical industry supply chain risk, this chapter classifies chemical industry supply chain risk through positive analysis. Then two representative individual risks are identified further more. The sources of transportation risk are induced through transportation process analysis, and the sources of green risk are concluded by fault-tree analysis.
Chapter four is risk assessment of chemical industry supply chain base on risk classification. Firstly this chapter presents risk assessment structure of chemical industry supply chain according to risk classification. Secondly collective risk of chemical industry supply chain is assessed by rough sets theory to distinguish the significance of individual risks, which is helpful for individual risks control. Thirdly after modifying traditional transportation risk assessment model according to the features of chemical industry supply chain, a dual model is developed for transportation risk assessment of chemical industry supply chain, then risk assessment process and numerical example are presented. Finally the green risk assessment index system of chemical industry supply chain is designed on the basis of green risk identification, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of green risk is developed, then assess process and numerical example are presented.
Chapter five is risk control of chemical industry supply chain based on risk ranking. Firstly this chapter gives the risk control structure of chemical industry supply chain according to risk ranking, and presents qualitative risk control measures; secondly chance constraint model of collective important risk control is developed by analyzing the trade-off between risk control cost and risk control benefit, then numerical example is presented; thirdly the goal programming model of transportation disruption risk control is developed to reduce the loss of internal and external of supply chain as possible, then numerical example is presented; finally the fuzzy programming model of green important risk control problem is developed and numerical example is presented to analyze further.
Chapter six is an implementation of chemical industry supply chain risk management base on 3S. This chapter presents integrated framework of 3S and chemical industry supply chain risk management, gives implementation steps, and presents main implementation plans, such as drawing out of risk map for risk assessment, transportation routine optimization for risk control, assistant disposition of risk accident, evaluation and recover of risk accident.
Chapter seven is conclusion and future work. This chapter draws the conclusion of this dissertation, moreover presents the research innovation and future work.
The innovation of this dissertation mainly contains four aspects as following:
(1) After studying on the features of chemical industry supply chain and the basic characteristic of chemical industry supply chain risk, the theoretic structure of chemical industry supply chain risk management is presented by adopting and partly modifying various theory and technology of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control, which enriches the theory of risk management. On the basis of literature analysis and positive research on chemical industry supply chain risk, the dominating risk resources of chemical industry supply chain is identified, which can be classified as collective risk and individual risk. Individual risk can be classified as transportation risk, green risk, production capacity risk, partnership risk and information risk, which is helpful for risk classification.
(2) This dissertation gives the risk assessment structure of chemical industry supply chain, which mainly assesses collective risk and representative individual risk (transportation risk and green risk) and ranks the risks according to the results of risk assessment. In the view of assessing the risk aftereffect on the internal and external of chemical industry supply chain, a dual model for transportation risk assessment is developed innovatively after modification of tradition transportation risk assessment model, then transportation risk can be ranked as daily risk, generic risk and disruption risk according to the comparison between the result of risk assessment and risk parameter. The green risk assessment index system of chemical industry supply chain is designed, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of green risk is developed, then green risk can be ranked as daily risk, generic risk and important risk according to the result of risk assessment.
(3) This dissertation presents the risk control structure of chemical industry supply chain based on risk ranking, which is to ignore the daily risk, give qualitative risk control measures for generic risk and build quantitative model for disruption risk or importation risk control. Chance constraint model of collective important risk control is developed by analyzing the trade-off between risk control cost and risk control benefit, thus it can improve risk control effect through optimizing risk control measures under restricted devotion. This dissertation considers the impossible loss of disruption risk as social cost, and the goal programming model of transportation disruption control is developed to reduce the loss of internal and external of supply chain in the view of comprehensive optimizing individual transportation cost, custom dissatisfied cost and social cost, then presents disruption risk control measures through analysis of numerical example. The fuzzy programming model of green important risk control problem is developed to optimize the production planning, while regarding three important risk sources of green (i.e. resource, energy and environment) as constraints of the model.
(4) 3S (GIS, GPS, RS), the intercross subject theory and technology is utilized for implementation of chemical industry supply chain risk management. The integrated framework of chemical industry supply chain risk management based on 3S is presented, then the implementation steps and principal implementing scheme is given. Chemical industry supply chain risk management based on 3S can do spatial information visualization and analysis, which can be helpful for the academic development of traditional supply chain risk management.
引文
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