宁夏引黄灌区水量调度仿真系统研究
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
水资源是社会经济协调健康持续发展的战略性基础资源,也是生态环境系统良性循环的控制性要素,水资源短缺是人类生存、生产及发展正面临的最严重挑战之一。宁夏地区人均水资源严重不足,属于重度缺水地区。资源型缺水给宁夏的经济发展带来严重阻碍,同时也给社会的稳定带来不利的因素。从远期来看,可以通过跨流域调水来解决宁夏乃至黄河流域的缺水问题。从近期来看,只能依靠水资源优化调度,提高水资源利用效率来解决水资源短缺问题。因此本文根据宁夏引黄灌区水量调度的现状,利用系统仿真理论来研究水量调度问题,提出了运用基于事例推理(CBR)的方法来进行水量调度。
     为使水量调度模型更有效地应用于生产实践,进一步提高当地的水资源管理的信息化水平,本文将CBR技术、Web技术、框架技术、Ajax技术、基于角色的访问控制(RBAC)以及MVC软件设计模式及组件开发的思想等先进的软件设计开发理论和技术应用于宁夏引黄灌区水量调度仿真系统的研发中,进一步推动了水量调度应用软件的发展,具有一定应用创新。实现了对水量调度相关数据信息的综合管理和水量调度业务的实时运用,为水资源调度管理搭建了一个科学决策的平台。通过实例应用,证明了该系统在技术实现上的可行性及合理性。该系统具有较好的扩展性及可移植性,可在此初步研究成果上,进一步扩展实际应用业务,使之完善成为一个水量调度的综合应用服务和决策平台。
     论文主要内容和成果如下:
     (1)宁夏引黄灌区目前水量调度方法及其优缺点分析。从传统的径流调节方法到基于系统仿真理论的水量调度方法,对其进行分类和总结,分析各自的优缺点,最后确定利用CBR来进行水量调度。
     (2)建立河道水量演进模型。建立基于系统仿真理论的河道水量演进模型,阐述了河道水量演进的研究思路和研究方法,给出河道水量演进模型中的参数的确定方法,为下一步水量调度提供决策依据。
     (3)利用事例推理(CBR)进行水量调度。分析了事例推理方法的基本原理、特点和工作流程,将其应用到水量调度当中去,解决了基于事例推理的水量调度事例表示、检索、修正、保存等关键技术,并以宁夏唐徕渠为例,进行实例分析,说明运用CBR进行实时水量调度的方法步骤。
     (4)水量调度仿真系统的设计与实现。基于现代信息技术,构建宁夏引黄灌区水量调度仿真系统,为宁夏水量调度的决策、协商和实施提供了一个高效的、可操作的综合信息平台。
The water resources are considered as not only strategic foundation resources that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of social and economy, but a factor that controlling the benign cycle between the ecosystem and the environment. The shortage of water resources is one of most serious challenges to human's living, producing and development. The Ningxia average per person water resources is serious insufficient, belongs extremely lacks the water area.
     The water resources shortage has brought the serious hindrance to Ningxia's economical development, simultaneously also gave the society stably disadvantageous factor. From forward looked that, the water resources short problem of the Ningxia and even the Yellow River could be solved by the cross basin water transfer. But, looked from the near future that, the problem only solved by the water resources optimization dispatch and enhances the water resources using efficiency. Therefore this paper according to the water dispatch present situation of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia, researched the water dispatch problem using the simulation system theory, proposed for the first time carries on the water dispatch using the CBR method.
     At the same time, for the water dispatch model effectively to apply to the production practice, further enhances the local water resource management information level, the CBR technology, the Web technology, the Frame technology, the Ajax technology, RBAC as well as the MVC software design pattern and the module develops and so on the advanced software design development theory and the technology has applied to water dispatch simulation system research and development in the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia, Further impelled the water dispatch application software development, has the certain application innovation. The water dispatch data information synthesis management and the water dispatch operation real-time utilization has been realized, a scientific policy-making platform for the water dispatch management has been built. Through the example application, this system in technical realization feasibility and the rationality has been proved. This system has a better extension and the probability, may in this preliminary study achievement, further expand practical application operation, made it to perfect into a water dispatch the synthesis application service and the policy-making platform. Paper main contents and achievement outlines as follows:
     (1) The Water dispatch method and its good and bad points at present of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia has been analyzed. The water dispatch method such as the traditional runoff adjustment method and based on the simulation system theory has been classified and summarized, and good and bad points of various water dispatch methods has been analyzed, finally determined using CBR for the water dispatch.
     (2) The course water routing model has been established. River course water routing model based on the simulation system theory has been established, course water routing research mentality and the research technique are expounded, definite method of the parameter of channel water routing model is produced, and the policy-making basis for the next step of water dispatch is provided.
     (3) Using CBR for water dispatch, the CBR basic principle, the characteristic and the flow of work are analyzed, and applied it to the water dispatch. The CBR essential technology, such as water dispatch case express, the retrieve, the revise, the retain and so on are solved, and taken Ningxia TangLai channel as an example, carried on the example analysis, the process of using CBR real-time water dispatch is explained.
     (4) Designing and implement of Water dispatch simulation system. Based on the modern information technology, water dispatch simulation system of the Yellow river irrigated area of Ningxia is constructed, and a highly effective and operational comprehensive information platform for the Ningxia water dispatch decision-making, the consultation and the implementation is provided.
引文
[1]World Water Assessment Programme.The United Nations World Water Development Report:Waterfor People,Water for Life[M],Washington DC:UNESCO Publishing,2002.
    [2]宁夏水资源保护迫在眉睫[EB/OL].http://www.hwcc.com.cn,2006-3-26.
    [3]宁夏回族自治区的水环境[EB/OL].http://www.agriyc.gov.cn,2006-09-12.
    [4]Hall,Dracup.Water resources system engineering[M].McGraw-Hill Series.1970.
    [5]Maas et al.Design of water resource systems[M].Mc Millan.1962.
    [6]Judd,Neil M.Archeological Observations North of the Rio Colorado[M].Washington:Government Print.1980
    [7]N.Buras.Seientific Allocation of Water Resourees[M].Elsevier,New York,1972.
    [8]Environment and Sustainable Development Division(ESDD).Guidebook to Water Resources,Use and Management in Asia and the Pacific[M]New York:UNESCAP 1985
    [9]Green G P,Hamilton J R.Water allocation,Transfers and Conservation:Links between Policy and Hydrology[J].Water Resources Development,2000,16(2):197.
    [10]J S Windsor.Optimization model for reservoir flood contro[J].Water Resources Research,1973,9(5):1219-1226.
    [11]W.W-G.Yeh,L.Becker.Multiobjective analysis ofmultireservoir operations[J],Water Resources Research,1982,18(5):1326-1336.
    [12]A Turgeon.Optimal short-term hydro scheduling from the principle of progressive optimality[J].Water Resources Research,1981,17(3):1176-1186.
    [13]Karamouz M,M H Houck.Annual and monthly reservoir operating rules generated by deterministic optimization[J].Water Resources Research.,1982,18(5):1423-1432.
    [14]S A Wasimi,P K Kitanidis.Real-time forecast and daily operation of a multi-reservoirs system during floods by linear quadratic gaussion control[J].Water Resources Research,1983,19(6):1511-1522.
    [15]M-Y.Tu,N-S.Hsu,Optimization of reservoir management and operation with hedging rules[J],Water Resour Plan Manage,2003,129(2):86-97.
    [16]施熙灿,王浩.考虑保证率约束的马氏决策规划在水电站水库优化调度中的应用[J].水力发电学报,1982,(2).
    [17]张勇传,李福生,熊斯毅,黄益芬.变向探索法及其在水库优化调度中的应用[J].水力发电学报,1982,(2).
    [18]马光文,颜竹丘.水电站群补偿调节的递阶控制关联平衡法[J].水力发电学报,1986,(4)
    [19]陈守煜,周惠成.多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型[J].水电能源科学,1991,9(1):9-17
    [20]陈守煜,邱林.水资源系统多目标模糊优选随机动态规划及实例[J].水利学报,1993(8)
    [21]谢新民,周之豪.水电站水库群经济优化调度数学模型与方法研究[J].水电能源科学,1994,12(1):21-28.
    [22]谢新民,陈守煜,王本德,周之豪,陈崇仁.水电站水库群模糊优化调度模型与目标协调——模糊规划法[J].水科学进展,1995,5(3):189-197.
    [23]汤斌,刘健民,仲伟俊.水电站水库优化调度的随机动态规划方法[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),1998,28(2):130-136.
    [24]王本德,周惠成,程春田,王永峰,贾宝清,刘挺.水库预蓄效益预风险控制模型[J].大连理 工大学学报,1999,(3):39.
    [25]王道席,雷鸣,王军良.小浪底库区及下游河道地理信息系统开发[J].人民黄河,2000,22(8):44-45.
    [26]王海军,段敬望,李星瑾.多泥沙河流水库汛期优化调度分析研究[J].华中电力,2004(2)。
    [27]张勇传.模糊集理论与水库优化问题[J].水电能源科学,1984(1):4-7.
    [28]王本德,周惠成.水库与井群经济运行的模糊控制模式[J].大连理工大学学报,1985(3):26-29.
    [29]谢新民.济南地下水资源系统多目标管理模型及模糊带权方法[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(1):63-72.
    [30]李永杰,马孝义,康绍忠.泾惠渠灌区地表与地下水优化调度研究[J].农业工程学报,1999,15(1):124-128.
    [31]邵东国,郭元裕,沈佩君.水库实时优化调度余留库容模糊决策方法研究[J].系统工程学报,1999,14(3):234-238.
    [32]孙才志,林学钰,王金生.水资源系统模糊优化调度中的动态AHP及应用[J].系统工程学报,2002,17(6):551-556
    [33]赵建世.基于复杂适应理论的水资源优化配置整体模型研究[D].北京:清华大学,2004
    [34]郑德凤,王本德.地下水库调蓄能力综合评价方法探讨[J].水利学报,2004,(10):56-62.
    [35]韦柳涛,梁年生,虞锦江.神经网络理论在梯级水电厂短期优化调度中的应用[J].水电能源科学,1992,(3):10-13.
    [36]胡铁松,万永华,冯尚友.水库群优化调度函数的人工神经网络方法研究[J].水科学进展,1995,16(1):53-60.
    [37]胡铁松.神经网络预测与优化[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,1997.
    [38]李义天,李荣.具有河网水沙运动特点的人工神经网络模型[J].水利学报,2001(11):1-7
    [39]赵全升,牟晓燕,戴其祥,邹剑峰,詹志习,吴国宏.基于人工神经网络的黄河下游防断流研究[J].工程勘察,2003,16(1):20-23.
    [40]赵基花,付永锋,沈冰,张西乾.建立水库优化调度函数的人工神经网络方法研究[]].水利能源科学,2005,23(2):28-31
    [41]赵勇.南水北调东线水量调度仿真系统研究与开发[D].西安:西安理工大学,2002:16-22.
    [42]刘藻珍,魏华梁.系统仿真[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1998.
    [43]康凤举.现代仿真技术与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2001.
    [44]陈宗海.构成系统建模与仿真[M].合肥:中国科技技术大学出版社,1997.
    [45]汪应洛.系统工程理论、方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
    [46]谭跃进,陈英武,易进先.系统工程原理[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1999.
    [47]肖田元,张燕云,陈家栋.系统仿真导论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000
    [48]齐欢,王小平.系统建模与仿真仿真系统的设计与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
    [49]孟文杰.南水北调中线工程水量调度仿真研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2003:26-32.
    [50]黄瑞,罗时朋,侯国祥.基于GIS的洪水演进系统的初步研究[J].广西水利水电,2003,16(1):12-14.
    [51]张广涛,白燕英.二维洪水演进数值模拟研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2004,35(3):267-270.
    [52]袁艳斌,袁晓辉,张勇传,刘吉平,侯国祥.洪水演进三维模拟仿真系统可视化研究[J].山地学报,2002,20(1):103-107.
    [53]孙毅,方英武,冯慧,王轶.渭河流域洪水演进仿真的研究[J].水电自动化与大坝监测,2004,28(2):75-78.
    [54]覃士欢,袁艳斌,杜迎泽,刘吉平.洪水演进仿真系统河道边界搜索模型及算法分析[J].水电 能源科学,2001,19(3):24-36.
    [55]袁艳斌,王乘,杜迎泽,董文锋,覃士欢.洪水演进模拟仿真系统研制的技术和目标分析[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(3):30-33.
    [56]韩敏,陈明,李威国.基于OpenGL的湿地洪水演进模拟仿真系统的研究[J].计算机应用研究,2005,(3):155-157
    [57]董文锋,袁艳斌,杜迎泽,刘吉平.流域三维地形仿真及洪水演进动态模拟[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(3):37-51.
    [58]彭少明.黄河流域水资源调控方案研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2004:44-45.
    [59]王煜.流域水资源实时调控理论方法和系统实现研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2005:27-29.
    [60]史忠植,王文杰.人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007:212-217.
    [61]倪志伟,李锋刚,毛雪岷.智能管理技术与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:34-39.
    [62]Armengol E,Plaza E.Similarity assessment for relational CBR[C],Proceeding of International Conference on Case-Based Reasoning'2001.Berlin:Springer,2001:44-58
    [63]Chen D Q,Burrell P.Case-Based Reasoning system and srtificial neural networks[C],Proceeding of Neural Computing and Application'2001.Berlin:Springer,2001:264-276
    [64]王兴伟,王宇.Web信息系统中基于RBAC模型的访问控制模块设计与实现[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(增刊):284-286.
    [65]孟建良,亢建波,庞春江.角色访问控制模型在两票管理系统中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(23):81-84.
    [66]董卫军,周警伟.MVC在Web系统中的模式与应用[J].计算机仿真,2003,20(12):111-114.
    [67]刘晓华.J2EE企业级应用开发[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003:2
    [68]解建仓,张永进.面向水利信息化的中间件技术及其支持服务平台[J].中国水利,2005,527(5):35-39.
    [69]王伟民.中间件及在软件开发中的作用[J].今日科技,2003,(4):40-41.
    [70]卢鹏丽,袁占亭,张秋余.构件及中间件技术的研究[J].甘肃工业大学学报,2002,28(4):83-86.
    [71]张国芳,崔淼,梁剑辉.中间件技术与“数字黄河”工程[J].人民黄河,2003,25(8):42-43.
    [72]李琪林,刘强,周明天.论中间件技术及其分类[J].2001,24(6):657-660.
    [73]童立,马远良.设计模式在基于组件的框架设计中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2002,(17):123-124
    [74]裴龙,何大可.Java 2 Swing组件设计模式分析[J].计算机应用,2001,21(8):274-280
    [75]刘宇,张成洪.企业门户中的信息与应用整合方法[J].合肥工业大学学报,2001,26(8):928-932.
    [76]邓玉龙.MVC设计模式在电子商务系统中的研究与应用[J].南京邮电学院学报,2002,22(2):80-89
    [77]李赤林,王琳.Model~View~Controller设计模式实例研究[J].计算机与现代化,2003(3): 12-18.
    [78]孙莹,许俊华,张毅.MVC编程模型在Web程序中的应用及Java实现[J].计算机工程与应用,(17),2001:160-163.
    [79]陆荣幸,郁洲,阮永良.J2EE平台上MVC设计模式的研究与实现[J].计算机应用研究,(3),2003:143-146.
    [80]张砚秋,陈川,何明德.基于MVC设计模式构筑JSP/Servlet+EJB的Web应用[J].计算机工程,27(11),2001:71-73.
    [81]Matjaz B.Juric著.J2EE EAI编程指南[M].袁然,汤代禄,刘立君等译.北京:电子工业出版社,2002.98-101
    [82]Erich Gamma,Richard Helm,Ralph Johnson,and John Vlissides.Design Patterns:Elements of Reusable Object~Oriented Software[M].Boston:Addison~Wesley,2000:82-93
    [83]边清刚,潘东华.Tomcat和Apache集成支持JSP技术探讨[J].计算机应用研究,2003,(6):12-14.

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700