基于信息不对称理论的工程项目风险管理研究
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摘要
随着全球经济的飞速发展和科学技术的不断进步,经济结构的急剧变化,市场竞争的日益激烈,工程项目所涉及的不确定因素将日益增多,面临的风险将越来越大,风险损失也越来越重。从信息经济学的角度来看,信息不对称所诱发的机会主义行为,即逆向选择与道德风险问题是造成我国建设市场秩序混乱、市场参与者行为不规范,从而引起建筑市场失信的主要原因,也是项目风险产生的重要原因。为此,将信息不对称理论引入到项目风险管理研究中不仅具有可行性,同时也具有重要的现实意义。
本文在分析相关问题研究现状的基础上,主要研究了以下几个方面的问题:
1、信息不对称与项目风险一般理论。介绍了不完全信息与不对称信息,分析了信息不对称的表现形式及特点;介绍了信息不对称理论的基本内容,分析了信息不对称与项目风险的关系;在项目管理信息模型的基础上,对项目管理中的信息不对称问题进行了重点分析;提出了项目风险多维结构描述方法,并建立了信息不对称下的项目风险度量函数。
2、项目主体行为风险分析。引入了项目主体行为风险的概念,在分析信息不对称与项目主体行为风险关系的基础上,讨论了研究项目主体行为风险的重要意义;在建立项目主体行为风险评价指标体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评价及基于BP人工神经网络方法对其进行了评价,并进行了实例分析;同时,结合风险效应机制与效用理论重点研究了决策者风险态度与风险效应平衡的关系,为信息不对称条件下进行风险决策提供了理论基础。
3、信息不对称理论下项目主体行为博弈分析。首先,就业主与承包商在项目招投标阶段和合同履行阶段的博弈进行了分析;随后,就业主与监理单位之间的博弈和承包商与监理单位之间的博弈进行了分析。最后,在项目主体二方博弈的基础上,分别建立了一般项目和政府投资项目主体三方之间的行为博弈模型,通过博弈混合策略纳什均衡解,对三方之间的博弈关系进行了分析,并提出了几点治理寻租活动的措施。
4、信息不对称理论下项目风险防范。根据委托代理理论,建立了针对道德风险和逆向选择的风险防范模型。在道德风险防范中分析了激励机制与监控机制在委托代理关系中的作用,并建立了信息不对称下的最优激励与监控模型。在逆向选择风险防范中建立了信号传递模型和信息甄别模型。
5、对国内外集成风险管理研究现状进行了分析,提出了将集成风险管理理论应用于工程项目风险管理中的想法。从项目集成风险管理目标、文化、组织、信息系
Global economic growth,technology-progress,Economy structural revulsion and market competitive severity brings with it great increase in the uncertain factors,risk and risk loss of projects.From the point of view of information economics,Information asymmetries places a premium on the opportunism behavior,namely adverse selection and moral hazard is the primary cause of breaking faith in the construction market and the essential cause of brings project risk.So it is feasibility and important significance to the application of information asymmetries theory in project risk management.
The research work done by the author was illustrated as below:
1、The ecumenical theory of information asymmetries and project risk.The dissertation introduces incomplete information and asymmetric information, and it analyses the form of expression & characteristic of information asymmetries.The dissertation introduces the essential content of information asymmetries and analyses the connection of information asymmetries and project risk.And it studies information asymmetries of project management based on the information model of project management. Multi-dimensions structure,a descriptive method of project risk is put forward. And it sets up risk measurement function of project risk under information asymmetries.
2、The behavior risk of project main body. The dissertation puts forward the concept of the behavior risk of project main body and discusses the importance of studying the behavior risk of project main body based on the relaionship of information asymmetries and the behavior risk of project main body.It founds the evaluation index system of the behavior risk of project main body. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and BP artificial neural networks have been used to evaluate the behavior risk of project main body and a practice example has been analyzed. The dissertation introduces the relaionship of risk effect balance and risk attitude based on the risk effect mechanism and the utility theory.
3、The behavior game of project main body under the circumstance of asymmetric information.Firstly, the dissertation analyses the game of bidding, fulfilling between owner and contractor.Secondly, it analyses the game between owner and supervisor, contractor and supervisor.Thirdly,it founds the behavior game model among principal parts of general project and government invest project based on two-person game , and
本文在分析相关问题研究现状的基础上,主要研究了以下几个方面的问题:
1、信息不对称与项目风险一般理论。介绍了不完全信息与不对称信息,分析了信息不对称的表现形式及特点;介绍了信息不对称理论的基本内容,分析了信息不对称与项目风险的关系;在项目管理信息模型的基础上,对项目管理中的信息不对称问题进行了重点分析;提出了项目风险多维结构描述方法,并建立了信息不对称下的项目风险度量函数。
2、项目主体行为风险分析。引入了项目主体行为风险的概念,在分析信息不对称与项目主体行为风险关系的基础上,讨论了研究项目主体行为风险的重要意义;在建立项目主体行为风险评价指标体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评价及基于BP人工神经网络方法对其进行了评价,并进行了实例分析;同时,结合风险效应机制与效用理论重点研究了决策者风险态度与风险效应平衡的关系,为信息不对称条件下进行风险决策提供了理论基础。
3、信息不对称理论下项目主体行为博弈分析。首先,就业主与承包商在项目招投标阶段和合同履行阶段的博弈进行了分析;随后,就业主与监理单位之间的博弈和承包商与监理单位之间的博弈进行了分析。最后,在项目主体二方博弈的基础上,分别建立了一般项目和政府投资项目主体三方之间的行为博弈模型,通过博弈混合策略纳什均衡解,对三方之间的博弈关系进行了分析,并提出了几点治理寻租活动的措施。
4、信息不对称理论下项目风险防范。根据委托代理理论,建立了针对道德风险和逆向选择的风险防范模型。在道德风险防范中分析了激励机制与监控机制在委托代理关系中的作用,并建立了信息不对称下的最优激励与监控模型。在逆向选择风险防范中建立了信号传递模型和信息甄别模型。
5、对国内外集成风险管理研究现状进行了分析,提出了将集成风险管理理论应用于工程项目风险管理中的想法。从项目集成风险管理目标、文化、组织、信息系
Global economic growth,technology-progress,Economy structural revulsion and market competitive severity brings with it great increase in the uncertain factors,risk and risk loss of projects.From the point of view of information economics,Information asymmetries places a premium on the opportunism behavior,namely adverse selection and moral hazard is the primary cause of breaking faith in the construction market and the essential cause of brings project risk.So it is feasibility and important significance to the application of information asymmetries theory in project risk management.
The research work done by the author was illustrated as below:
1、The ecumenical theory of information asymmetries and project risk.The dissertation introduces incomplete information and asymmetric information, and it analyses the form of expression & characteristic of information asymmetries.The dissertation introduces the essential content of information asymmetries and analyses the connection of information asymmetries and project risk.And it studies information asymmetries of project management based on the information model of project management. Multi-dimensions structure,a descriptive method of project risk is put forward. And it sets up risk measurement function of project risk under information asymmetries.
2、The behavior risk of project main body. The dissertation puts forward the concept of the behavior risk of project main body and discusses the importance of studying the behavior risk of project main body based on the relaionship of information asymmetries and the behavior risk of project main body.It founds the evaluation index system of the behavior risk of project main body. And fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and BP artificial neural networks have been used to evaluate the behavior risk of project main body and a practice example has been analyzed. The dissertation introduces the relaionship of risk effect balance and risk attitude based on the risk effect mechanism and the utility theory.
3、The behavior game of project main body under the circumstance of asymmetric information.Firstly, the dissertation analyses the game of bidding, fulfilling between owner and contractor.Secondly, it analyses the game between owner and supervisor, contractor and supervisor.Thirdly,it founds the behavior game model among principal parts of general project and government invest project based on two-person game , and
引文
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