我国汽车业产业组织合理化问题研究
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摘要
中国汽车产业起步晚,基础差,外在竞争激烈,内在技术缺乏,并且产业组织存在很多不尽合理的地方,产业的竞争力有待进一步提升。要成为国民经济的支柱产业并带动相关行业的发展,从而达到推动国家加速现代化进程的理想目标还有相当距离。
本文通过对影响产业组织的三个主要因素:集中度、兼并重组和进入壁垒进行研究,找出我国汽车业中存在的问题,并探讨汽车业产业组织优化和竞争力提高的实现途径。
在市场集中度方面,运用计量方法对可能影响我国汽车产业市场集中度的诸多因素进行了实证分析。其中,市场容量增长率、最小经济规模和产业政策对市场集中度有积极影响。
在进入壁垒方面,通过建立古诺模型来分析企业进入产业不同细分市场的原因。潜在企业选择进入高端还是低端市场,取决于期初所需的初始投入以及两市场的竞争状况。中国汽车业的进入壁垒可以分为经济性壁垒和管制性壁垒两大类。对中国汽车企业而言,潜在厂商多选择进入低端市场,进入高端市场的投入高,技术门槛难以跨越。
在兼并重组方面,通过广义斯塔克伯格模型进行企业间横向兼并的获利性研究。对三种兼并类型:多个领头企业间兼并、多个跟随企业间兼并及1个领头企业和1个跟随企业间兼并进行了研究。结果表明:在多个领头(跟随)企业之间很少具有兼并动机,但是1个领头企业和1个跟随企业间总是存在兼并动机。加入WTO后,我国汽车行业的兼并重组步伐不断加快,呈现出两大特点:一是以国内三大集团为中心进行的运作;二是以国外企业为依托。然而这类重组存在诸多问题,并没有表现出强大的竞争力,有些企业甚至为外资主导,丧失自主权。
中国汽车业的道路该怎样走?如何成为汽车强国?首先,应确立建设具有国际竞争力的汽车业的战略。既要开放汽车市场,也要紧抓技术方面的自主创新,开创中国自己拥有知识产权的高端品牌。同时,继续鼓励成立大型汽车集团。政府则要实现职能转变,减少各类管制壁垒,并设置合理的退出机制。
The development of China auto industry is behind many strong countries, because it has weak foudation and lacks primary technique. There are many unreasonable places in its organization and its competition power must improve. It is long distance that China auto industry become the pillar industry in national economy so as to push contry modernlization accelerating.
The paper studys three important elements which influence industrial organization: market concentration, barriers to entry, merger & reorganization. And discusses how to optimize industry organization and enhance competition power aiming at existing problems.
We do emprical analysis on factors which possibly influence market concentration of China auto industry using econometric method. Market volume growth rate, MES & industry policies have positive impact on market concentration.
We established Coumot model to analyze the relationship between barriers to entry & enterprises’choices to enter into different market. The conclusion is that potential enterprises choose rest with cost barrier and competition status. Barriers to entry are classified as economic barriers and regulation barriers in China auto industry. In fact, since top grade market has high threshold, potential enterprises often enter into low-end market.
The profitability and social welfare of horizontal merger are studied based on linear demand and asymmetric constant marginal costs of production in generalized Stackelberg market. The conclusion is that leading(following) enterprises seldom merge while one leading enterprise and one following enterprise often merge. After joining WTO, China auto industry kept quick merger & reorganization steps. The cases took on two traits: merger relied on foreign capital and Three Top Group played leading roles. However, many problems harassed China auto industry. Therefore, it didn’t exhibit strong competition power, so much as some enterprises gave decision power to foreign partner passively.
Which is the right road for China auto industry ? How does it become strong auto country ? First of all, we should establish stratege that we not only open our auto market, but also research on primary technique of whole auto manufacture. Creating top grade auto grands of our country to let the wholeworld know our auto grand. And encouraging to constitute large scale auto groups. The government must change its function, that means dinimishing regulation barriers and setting up reasonable exit mechanism.
本文通过对影响产业组织的三个主要因素:集中度、兼并重组和进入壁垒进行研究,找出我国汽车业中存在的问题,并探讨汽车业产业组织优化和竞争力提高的实现途径。
在市场集中度方面,运用计量方法对可能影响我国汽车产业市场集中度的诸多因素进行了实证分析。其中,市场容量增长率、最小经济规模和产业政策对市场集中度有积极影响。
在进入壁垒方面,通过建立古诺模型来分析企业进入产业不同细分市场的原因。潜在企业选择进入高端还是低端市场,取决于期初所需的初始投入以及两市场的竞争状况。中国汽车业的进入壁垒可以分为经济性壁垒和管制性壁垒两大类。对中国汽车企业而言,潜在厂商多选择进入低端市场,进入高端市场的投入高,技术门槛难以跨越。
在兼并重组方面,通过广义斯塔克伯格模型进行企业间横向兼并的获利性研究。对三种兼并类型:多个领头企业间兼并、多个跟随企业间兼并及1个领头企业和1个跟随企业间兼并进行了研究。结果表明:在多个领头(跟随)企业之间很少具有兼并动机,但是1个领头企业和1个跟随企业间总是存在兼并动机。加入WTO后,我国汽车行业的兼并重组步伐不断加快,呈现出两大特点:一是以国内三大集团为中心进行的运作;二是以国外企业为依托。然而这类重组存在诸多问题,并没有表现出强大的竞争力,有些企业甚至为外资主导,丧失自主权。
中国汽车业的道路该怎样走?如何成为汽车强国?首先,应确立建设具有国际竞争力的汽车业的战略。既要开放汽车市场,也要紧抓技术方面的自主创新,开创中国自己拥有知识产权的高端品牌。同时,继续鼓励成立大型汽车集团。政府则要实现职能转变,减少各类管制壁垒,并设置合理的退出机制。
The development of China auto industry is behind many strong countries, because it has weak foudation and lacks primary technique. There are many unreasonable places in its organization and its competition power must improve. It is long distance that China auto industry become the pillar industry in national economy so as to push contry modernlization accelerating.
The paper studys three important elements which influence industrial organization: market concentration, barriers to entry, merger & reorganization. And discusses how to optimize industry organization and enhance competition power aiming at existing problems.
We do emprical analysis on factors which possibly influence market concentration of China auto industry using econometric method. Market volume growth rate, MES & industry policies have positive impact on market concentration.
We established Coumot model to analyze the relationship between barriers to entry & enterprises’choices to enter into different market. The conclusion is that potential enterprises choose rest with cost barrier and competition status. Barriers to entry are classified as economic barriers and regulation barriers in China auto industry. In fact, since top grade market has high threshold, potential enterprises often enter into low-end market.
The profitability and social welfare of horizontal merger are studied based on linear demand and asymmetric constant marginal costs of production in generalized Stackelberg market. The conclusion is that leading(following) enterprises seldom merge while one leading enterprise and one following enterprise often merge. After joining WTO, China auto industry kept quick merger & reorganization steps. The cases took on two traits: merger relied on foreign capital and Three Top Group played leading roles. However, many problems harassed China auto industry. Therefore, it didn’t exhibit strong competition power, so much as some enterprises gave decision power to foreign partner passively.
Which is the right road for China auto industry ? How does it become strong auto country ? First of all, we should establish stratege that we not only open our auto market, but also research on primary technique of whole auto manufacture. Creating top grade auto grands of our country to let the wholeworld know our auto grand. And encouraging to constitute large scale auto groups. The government must change its function, that means dinimishing regulation barriers and setting up reasonable exit mechanism.
引文
[1] Amel ,D. F. and J . N. Liang. Dynamics of Market Concentration in U. S. Banking 1966 -1986 [J]. International Journal of Industrial Organization , 1990 , 8
[2] Badu,S.M. Economic Reforms and Entry Barriers in Indian Manufacturing [J].Centre for Development Studies at Thiruvananthapuram Working Paper, 2002
[3] Bain J.S. Barriers to new competition[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press, 1956
[4] Bain J.S .Industrial Organization[M]. NewYork :John Wiley and Sons ,1958
[5] Bain J.S. Industrial organization[M]. New York: John Wiley &Sons, 1968, 360-362
[6] Broadman,H.G. Reducing Structural Dominance and Entry Barriers in Russian Industry [J].World Bank Working Paper, 2000
[7] Demsetz,H. Barriers to Entry [J].American Economic Preview, 1982, 72:47-57
[8] Dixit,A. The Role of Investment in Entry Deterrence [J]. Economic Journal, 1981, 90:95-106
[9] Gibert,R. Mobility Barriers and the Value of Incumbency [J]. Handbook of industrial Organization, North Holland, New York: R.Schmalensee and R.Willing eds, 1989
[10] Jenny F. and A. P. Weber The Determinants of Concentration Trends in the French Manufacturing Sector [J]. Journal of Industrial Economics , 1978, 26 :3,193 - 207
[11] Levy. D. Specifying the Dynamics of Industry Concentration [J]. Journal of Industrial Economics , 1985 ,34 :55 - 68
[12] Mueller ,W. F. and L. G. Hamm. Trends in Industrial Concentration [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics , 1974 , 56 :511– 520
[13] Scherer.F and Ross.T. Industrial market structure and economic performance [M]. Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1990
[14] Steffen H, Kai A K, Wieland M. Big fish eat small fish:on merger Stackelbergmarkets [J]. Economics Letters, 2001,73(2):213～217.
[15] Stigler,.G.J. Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries [M]. Princeton :N . J . Princeton University Press ,1963
[16] Von Weizsecker,C. A Welfare analysis of barriers to entry [J]. Bell Journal of Economics ,1980
[17]陈明森.市场进入退出与企业竞争战略[M].中国经济出版社,2001
[18]陈正仓.台湾地区产业集中度之研究[J].企银月刊,1984,8
[19]戴双兴(a).规模经济是汽车工业的基础[J].汽车工业研究,2004,2:10-13
[20]戴双兴(b).中国汽车工业规模经济的实证分析[J].经济前沿,2004,1:28-31
[21]邓启惠.浅谈市场进入壁垒及其效应分析[J].经济问题,1996,2:58-61,9
[22]郭海涛.我国汽车产业的国有产权、市场结构与市场绩效研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2005,6:8-13
[23]郭立宏.论我国产业市场低进入壁垒和高退出壁垒的矛盾与治理[J].经济改革,1995,1:23-25
[24]贾国玺.汽车产业的进入壁垒分析[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2003,3:13-14,17
[25]艰难转折中的汽车工业[M].中国工业发展报告,1997,7:130-140
[26]江小涓.市场化进程中的低效率竞争——以棉纺织行业为例[J].经济研究,1998,3:40-P49,75
[27]李雪.产品差别化、市场透明度与合谋[J].中国博士学位论文全文数据库,2006
[28]李作奎.中国汽车产业组织研究[J].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2004
[29]林孝文.汽车行业:中国市场失效个案分析[J].经济问题探索,2000,4:32-34
[30]刘小玄.中国转轨经济中的产权结构和是市场结构——产业绩效水平的决定因素[J].经济研究,2003,1:21-29
[31]罗飞.中国汽车产业集中度分析[J].经济纵横,2005,3:92-94
[32]钱平凡,赵耀.加入WTO后我国大型汽车集团竞争力的现状与提升[J].管理世界,2002,10:76-84,119
[33]单骁寅.我国汽车产业的现状和发展分析及对策研究[J].中国学位论文全文数据库,2001
[34]斯蒂格勒.进入壁垒,规模经济和厂商规模[M].产业组织和政府管制(中译本),上海:上海人民出版社和上海三联书店,1994
[35]拓冬梅.加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响及对策研究[J].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2002
[36]王慧炯.产业组织及有效竞争[M].中国经济出版社,1991
[37]文玫.民营化(私有化)的理论和实证分析[J].现代经济学与金融学前沿发展(论文集),商务印刷馆,2002
[38]徐斌.中国汽车产业市场结构分析和产业组织政策[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2006,24(6):40-43
[39]杨蕙馨.企业的进入退出与产业组织政策——以汽车制造业和耐用消费品制造业为例[J].上海:上海人民出版社和三联书店上海分店,2000
[40]易小佳,廖进中.我国汽车产业市场集中度影响因素的实证分析[J].科技和产业,2007,7(3):12-15,21
[41]余小华,魏晓宁.中国汽车产业集中度影响因素的实证分析[J].统计教育,2003,3:17-19
[42]赵娟.我国汽车产业集中度分析[J].天津汽车,2004,3:12-14,32
[43]郑倩仪.中国汽车产业组织与产业政策研究[J].中国学位论文全文数据库,2004
[2] Badu,S.M. Economic Reforms and Entry Barriers in Indian Manufacturing [J].Centre for Development Studies at Thiruvananthapuram Working Paper, 2002
[3] Bain J.S. Barriers to new competition[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press, 1956
[4] Bain J.S .Industrial Organization[M]. NewYork :John Wiley and Sons ,1958
[5] Bain J.S. Industrial organization[M]. New York: John Wiley &Sons, 1968, 360-362
[6] Broadman,H.G. Reducing Structural Dominance and Entry Barriers in Russian Industry [J].World Bank Working Paper, 2000
[7] Demsetz,H. Barriers to Entry [J].American Economic Preview, 1982, 72:47-57
[8] Dixit,A. The Role of Investment in Entry Deterrence [J]. Economic Journal, 1981, 90:95-106
[9] Gibert,R. Mobility Barriers and the Value of Incumbency [J]. Handbook of industrial Organization, North Holland, New York: R.Schmalensee and R.Willing eds, 1989
[10] Jenny F. and A. P. Weber The Determinants of Concentration Trends in the French Manufacturing Sector [J]. Journal of Industrial Economics , 1978, 26 :3,193 - 207
[11] Levy. D. Specifying the Dynamics of Industry Concentration [J]. Journal of Industrial Economics , 1985 ,34 :55 - 68
[12] Mueller ,W. F. and L. G. Hamm. Trends in Industrial Concentration [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics , 1974 , 56 :511– 520
[13] Scherer.F and Ross.T. Industrial market structure and economic performance [M]. Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1990
[14] Steffen H, Kai A K, Wieland M. Big fish eat small fish:on merger Stackelbergmarkets [J]. Economics Letters, 2001,73(2):213～217.
[15] Stigler,.G.J. Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries [M]. Princeton :N . J . Princeton University Press ,1963
[16] Von Weizsecker,C. A Welfare analysis of barriers to entry [J]. Bell Journal of Economics ,1980
[17]陈明森.市场进入退出与企业竞争战略[M].中国经济出版社,2001
[18]陈正仓.台湾地区产业集中度之研究[J].企银月刊,1984,8
[19]戴双兴(a).规模经济是汽车工业的基础[J].汽车工业研究,2004,2:10-13
[20]戴双兴(b).中国汽车工业规模经济的实证分析[J].经济前沿,2004,1:28-31
[21]邓启惠.浅谈市场进入壁垒及其效应分析[J].经济问题,1996,2:58-61,9
[22]郭海涛.我国汽车产业的国有产权、市场结构与市场绩效研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2005,6:8-13
[23]郭立宏.论我国产业市场低进入壁垒和高退出壁垒的矛盾与治理[J].经济改革,1995,1:23-25
[24]贾国玺.汽车产业的进入壁垒分析[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2003,3:13-14,17
[25]艰难转折中的汽车工业[M].中国工业发展报告,1997,7:130-140
[26]江小涓.市场化进程中的低效率竞争——以棉纺织行业为例[J].经济研究,1998,3:40-P49,75
[27]李雪.产品差别化、市场透明度与合谋[J].中国博士学位论文全文数据库,2006
[28]李作奎.中国汽车产业组织研究[J].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2004
[29]林孝文.汽车行业:中国市场失效个案分析[J].经济问题探索,2000,4:32-34
[30]刘小玄.中国转轨经济中的产权结构和是市场结构——产业绩效水平的决定因素[J].经济研究,2003,1:21-29
[31]罗飞.中国汽车产业集中度分析[J].经济纵横,2005,3:92-94
[32]钱平凡,赵耀.加入WTO后我国大型汽车集团竞争力的现状与提升[J].管理世界,2002,10:76-84,119
[33]单骁寅.我国汽车产业的现状和发展分析及对策研究[J].中国学位论文全文数据库,2001
[34]斯蒂格勒.进入壁垒,规模经济和厂商规模[M].产业组织和政府管制(中译本),上海:上海人民出版社和上海三联书店,1994
[35]拓冬梅.加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响及对策研究[J].中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库,2002
[36]王慧炯.产业组织及有效竞争[M].中国经济出版社,1991
[37]文玫.民营化(私有化)的理论和实证分析[J].现代经济学与金融学前沿发展(论文集),商务印刷馆,2002
[38]徐斌.中国汽车产业市场结构分析和产业组织政策[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2006,24(6):40-43
[39]杨蕙馨.企业的进入退出与产业组织政策——以汽车制造业和耐用消费品制造业为例[J].上海:上海人民出版社和三联书店上海分店,2000
[40]易小佳,廖进中.我国汽车产业市场集中度影响因素的实证分析[J].科技和产业,2007,7(3):12-15,21
[41]余小华,魏晓宁.中国汽车产业集中度影响因素的实证分析[J].统计教育,2003,3:17-19
[42]赵娟.我国汽车产业集中度分析[J].天津汽车,2004,3:12-14,32
[43]郑倩仪.中国汽车产业组织与产业政策研究[J].中国学位论文全文数据库,2004