社会因素与劳动力回流
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摘要
自上世纪八、九十年代以来,中国农村大量剩余劳动力在向城镇迁移的同时,也始终伴随着从城镇向农村的回流。本世纪初,全国各大城市普遍出现“民工荒”,重要原因之一就是农村劳动力的回流。分析回流的原因及各类因素对于回流的相对重要性,有助于为制定促进劳动力转移的政策措施提供依据,具有较强的现实意义。
本文采用中国科学院农业政策研究中心于2008年10月对山东、陕西、吉林、浙江等4省的调查数据,借助Probit模型与Duration模型,对农村劳动力回流问题进行实证研究。我们分析了对回流造成显著影响的各项因素,并计算各因素对回流的贡献度,以比较其相对重要性,最后按年龄将样本分组,分别计算每个年龄组中各类因素的回流贡献度,据此比较不同年龄层劳动力的回流原因差异。
较之已有文献,本文的创新思路和主要贡献在于：第一、用中国的数据对农村劳动力回流的原因做了经验研究,综合分析了个人、家庭、社会等各类因素对于回流的影响；第二、通过对回流概率方程全微分的方法,计算了每项因素的回流贡献度,比较了它们的相对重要性；第三、发现了不同年龄段劳动力回流原因的差异,特别是中年农村劳动力的回流与社会因素的重要关系。
综合分析上述各类因素的影响,本文认为,农村流动劳动力回流主要受性别、年龄、教育水平、工资水平、未成年子女及其随迁情况、居住条件等因素的显著影响,其中居住条件、随迁子女教育条件等社会因素对回流有重大影响。不同年龄劳动力受各类因素的影响程度也有所不同,25岁以下组对工资比较敏感,36岁以上组更易被家庭因素影响,而26至35岁农村流动劳动力的回流行为受社会因素影响巨大。
This paper examines urban-rural return migration in China. Based on an empirical study of Shandong, Shanxi, Jilin and Zhejiang provinces, we analyze the reasons for return and their relative importance. Within the general analysis, attention should be paid to the different effects between different age groups, which shows more political meaning for the promotion of labor transfer.
Compared with related papers before, this paper has three new contributions: Firstly, using a new empirical data in China, we analyze the comprehensive effects of personal factor, family factor and social factor. Secondly, by calculating the contributions of each kind of factor, we examine their relative importance. Finally, we find a special relation between return and social reasons among middle-age migrants.
We argue that although many factors have effects on return migration, social reasons are very important, including habitation and education conditions for the children along with migrants. These effects become stronger among the middle-age group, which indicate a better common policy will be helpful for labor transfer.
本文采用中国科学院农业政策研究中心于2008年10月对山东、陕西、吉林、浙江等4省的调查数据,借助Probit模型与Duration模型,对农村劳动力回流问题进行实证研究。我们分析了对回流造成显著影响的各项因素,并计算各因素对回流的贡献度,以比较其相对重要性,最后按年龄将样本分组,分别计算每个年龄组中各类因素的回流贡献度,据此比较不同年龄层劳动力的回流原因差异。
较之已有文献,本文的创新思路和主要贡献在于：第一、用中国的数据对农村劳动力回流的原因做了经验研究,综合分析了个人、家庭、社会等各类因素对于回流的影响；第二、通过对回流概率方程全微分的方法,计算了每项因素的回流贡献度,比较了它们的相对重要性；第三、发现了不同年龄段劳动力回流原因的差异,特别是中年农村劳动力的回流与社会因素的重要关系。
综合分析上述各类因素的影响,本文认为,农村流动劳动力回流主要受性别、年龄、教育水平、工资水平、未成年子女及其随迁情况、居住条件等因素的显著影响,其中居住条件、随迁子女教育条件等社会因素对回流有重大影响。不同年龄劳动力受各类因素的影响程度也有所不同,25岁以下组对工资比较敏感,36岁以上组更易被家庭因素影响,而26至35岁农村流动劳动力的回流行为受社会因素影响巨大。
This paper examines urban-rural return migration in China. Based on an empirical study of Shandong, Shanxi, Jilin and Zhejiang provinces, we analyze the reasons for return and their relative importance. Within the general analysis, attention should be paid to the different effects between different age groups, which shows more political meaning for the promotion of labor transfer.
Compared with related papers before, this paper has three new contributions: Firstly, using a new empirical data in China, we analyze the comprehensive effects of personal factor, family factor and social factor. Secondly, by calculating the contributions of each kind of factor, we examine their relative importance. Finally, we find a special relation between return and social reasons among middle-age migrants.
We argue that although many factors have effects on return migration, social reasons are very important, including habitation and education conditions for the children along with migrants. These effects become stronger among the middle-age group, which indicate a better common policy will be helpful for labor transfer.
引文
1参见国务院,《关于农村进入集镇落户的通知》；
2引自新华社,“调查：广东农民工平均月薪1600元”,新华每日电讯,2008年12月28日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/2008-12/28/content 10569006.htm;
3全国总工会调研组,“农民工权益保障问题调研报告”,载于《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年；
4白南生,李靖,“城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究”,《中国人口科学》,2008年第4期；
5孔祥成,刘芳,“20世纪90年代以来中国农村剩余劳动力流动问题研究综述”,《贵州财经学院学报》,2002年第5期：
6Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration" Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159; Borjas G.J,1989, "Immigrant and emigrant earnings:a longitudinal study" Economic Inquiry 27,21-37;
Saenz R, Davila A,1992, "Chicano return migration to the southwest:an integrated human capital approach" International Migration Review 26,1248-1266;
9 Gabriel Gonzalez Konig, "Return migration:Theory and evidence from returning migrants to Western Mexico",2000, Georgetown University working paper# 99-13. Re-submitted to the Journal of Labor Economics;
10 Nicola Coniglio, Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, "Clandestine migrants:Do the High-Skilled Return Home First?",2009-9-10,2nd International Conference on Migration and Development, Washington D.C;
Ma Z,2001, "Urban labour-force experiences as a determinant of rural occupation change:evidence from recent urban-rural return migration in China" Environment and Planning A 33,237-255;
11 Murphy R,1999, "Return migrants and economic diversification in two countries in South Jiangxi, China" Journal of International Development 11,661-672;
13 Pottinger R,1987, "Return Migration and Rural Industrial Employment:A Navajo Case Study" PhD thesis, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO;
14 Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration"Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159;
15 Ma Z,2002, "Social-capital mobilization and income returns to entrepreneurship:the case of return migration in rural China" Environment and Planning A 34,1763-1784;
16王西玉,崔传义,赵阳,“打工与回乡：就业转变和农村发展”,《管理世界》,2003年,99-109页；
17白南生,宋洪远,《回乡还是进城?中国农村外出劳动力回流研究》,北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002年；
Liang Z, Wu Y,2003, "Return migration in China:new methods and findings", paper presented at the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN;
19白南生,何宇鹏,“回乡还是外出?”,《社会学研究》,2002年第3期：
Wenfei Winnie Wang & C Candy Fan, "Success or failure:selectivity and reasons of return migration in Sichuan and Anhui, China", Environment and Planning A 2006, volume 38, pages 939-958;
21白南生,李靖,“城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究”,《中国人口科学》,2008年第4期；
22孟昕,张俊森,“中国城镇的双层劳动力市场——上海城镇居民与农村移民的职业分割与工资差距”,载于《中国转轨时期劳动力流动》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年；
23教育部调研组,“农民工子女教育问题研究报告”,载于《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年；
24吴维平,王汉生,“寄居大城市：京沪两地流动人口住房现状分析”,《社会学研究》,2002年第3期。
[1]白南生,何宇鹏,回乡还是外出[J],社会学研究,2002,3.
[2]白南生,李靖,城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究[J],中国人口科学,2008,4.
[3]白南生,宋洪远,回乡还是进城?中国农村外出劳动力回流研究[M],北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002.
[4]陈大红,农村劳动力迁移流动对中国经济增长的影响[J],经济研究导刊,2007,7.
[5]孔祥成,刘芳,20世纪90年代以来中国农村剩余劳动力流动问题研究综述[J],贵州财经学院学报,2002,5.
[6]孟昕,张俊森,中国城镇的双层劳动力市场——上海城镇居民与农村移民的职业分割与工资差距[A],见：中国转轨时期劳动力流动[C],社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[7]建设部调研组,解决农村进城务工人员住房问题研究报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[8]教育部调研组,农民工子女教育问题研究报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[9]全国总工会调研组,农民工权益保障问题调研报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[10]王西玉,崔传义,赵阳,打工与回乡：就业转变和农村发展[J],管理世界,2003,99-109.
[11]吴维平,王汉生,寄居大城市：京沪两地流动人口住房现状分析[J],社会学研究,2002,3.
[12]新华社,调查：广东农民工平均月薪1600元[0 L],新华每日电讯,2008-12-28.
[13]章刚勇,阮陆宁,农村外出劳动力回流的宏观层面解释[J],经济研究参考,2009,30.
[14]Aaron Han and Jerry A. Hausman,1990, "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models" Journal ofApplied Econometrics 5(1),1-28.
[15]Borjas G. J,1989, "Immigrant and emigrant earnings:a longitudinal study" Economic Inquiry 27,21-37.
[16]Gabriel Gonzalez Konig,2000, "Return migration:Theory and evidence from returning migrants to Western Mexico", Georgetown University working paper# 99-13. Re-submitted to the Journal of Labor Economics.
[17]Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration" Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159.
[18]Liang Z, Wu Y,2003, "Return migration in China:new methods and findings", the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN.
[19]Ma Z,2001, "Urban labour-force experiences as a determinant of rural occupation change: evidence from recent urban-rural return migration in China" Environment and Planning A 33, 237-255.
[20]Ma Z,2002, "Social-capital mobilization and income returns to entrepreneurship:the case of return migration in rural China" Environment and Planning A 34,1763-1784.
[21]Murphy R,1999, "Return migrants and economic diversification in two countries in South Jiangxi, China" Journal of International Development 11,661-672.
[22]Nicola Coniglio, Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga,2009, "Clandestine migrants: Do the High-Skilled Return Home First?",2nd International Conference on Migration and Development, Washington D.C.
[23]Nicholas M. Kiefei,1988, "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions" Journal of Economic Literature,26(2),646-679.
[24]Pottinger R,1987, "Return Migration and Rural Industrial Employment:A Navajo Case Study" PhD thesis, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO.
[25]Saenz R, Davila A,1992, "Chicano return migration to the southwest:an integrated human capital approach" International Migration Review 26,1248-1266.
[26]YaoHui Zhao,2003, "the Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration:the Case of China" Contemporary Economic Policy 21 (4),500-511.
[27]Wenfei Winnie Wang & C Candy Fan,2006, "Success or failure:selectivity and reasons of return migration in Sichuan and Anhui, China", Environment and Planning A 2006,38,939-958.
2引自新华社,“调查：广东农民工平均月薪1600元”,新华每日电讯,2008年12月28日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/2008-12/28/content 10569006.htm;
3全国总工会调研组,“农民工权益保障问题调研报告”,载于《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年；
4白南生,李靖,“城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究”,《中国人口科学》,2008年第4期；
5孔祥成,刘芳,“20世纪90年代以来中国农村剩余劳动力流动问题研究综述”,《贵州财经学院学报》,2002年第5期：
6Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration" Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159; Borjas G.J,1989, "Immigrant and emigrant earnings:a longitudinal study" Economic Inquiry 27,21-37;
Saenz R, Davila A,1992, "Chicano return migration to the southwest:an integrated human capital approach" International Migration Review 26,1248-1266;
9 Gabriel Gonzalez Konig, "Return migration:Theory and evidence from returning migrants to Western Mexico",2000, Georgetown University working paper# 99-13. Re-submitted to the Journal of Labor Economics;
10 Nicola Coniglio, Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, "Clandestine migrants:Do the High-Skilled Return Home First?",2009-9-10,2nd International Conference on Migration and Development, Washington D.C;
Ma Z,2001, "Urban labour-force experiences as a determinant of rural occupation change:evidence from recent urban-rural return migration in China" Environment and Planning A 33,237-255;
11 Murphy R,1999, "Return migrants and economic diversification in two countries in South Jiangxi, China" Journal of International Development 11,661-672;
13 Pottinger R,1987, "Return Migration and Rural Industrial Employment:A Navajo Case Study" PhD thesis, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO;
14 Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration"Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159;
15 Ma Z,2002, "Social-capital mobilization and income returns to entrepreneurship:the case of return migration in rural China" Environment and Planning A 34,1763-1784;
16王西玉,崔传义,赵阳,“打工与回乡：就业转变和农村发展”,《管理世界》,2003年,99-109页；
17白南生,宋洪远,《回乡还是进城?中国农村外出劳动力回流研究》,北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002年；
Liang Z, Wu Y,2003, "Return migration in China:new methods and findings", paper presented at the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN;
19白南生,何宇鹏,“回乡还是外出?”,《社会学研究》,2002年第3期：
Wenfei Winnie Wang & C Candy Fan, "Success or failure:selectivity and reasons of return migration in Sichuan and Anhui, China", Environment and Planning A 2006, volume 38, pages 939-958;
21白南生,李靖,“城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究”,《中国人口科学》,2008年第4期；
22孟昕,张俊森,“中国城镇的双层劳动力市场——上海城镇居民与农村移民的职业分割与工资差距”,载于《中国转轨时期劳动力流动》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年；
23教育部调研组,“农民工子女教育问题研究报告”,载于《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社,2006年；
24吴维平,王汉生,“寄居大城市：京沪两地流动人口住房现状分析”,《社会学研究》,2002年第3期。
[1]白南生,何宇鹏,回乡还是外出[J],社会学研究,2002,3.
[2]白南生,李靖,城市化与中国农村劳动力流动问题研究[J],中国人口科学,2008,4.
[3]白南生,宋洪远,回乡还是进城?中国农村外出劳动力回流研究[M],北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002.
[4]陈大红,农村劳动力迁移流动对中国经济增长的影响[J],经济研究导刊,2007,7.
[5]孔祥成,刘芳,20世纪90年代以来中国农村剩余劳动力流动问题研究综述[J],贵州财经学院学报,2002,5.
[6]孟昕,张俊森,中国城镇的双层劳动力市场——上海城镇居民与农村移民的职业分割与工资差距[A],见：中国转轨时期劳动力流动[C],社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[7]建设部调研组,解决农村进城务工人员住房问题研究报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[8]教育部调研组,农民工子女教育问题研究报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[9]全国总工会调研组,农民工权益保障问题调研报告[A],见：中国农民工调研报告[C],中国言实出版社,2006.
[10]王西玉,崔传义,赵阳,打工与回乡：就业转变和农村发展[J],管理世界,2003,99-109.
[11]吴维平,王汉生,寄居大城市：京沪两地流动人口住房现状分析[J],社会学研究,2002,3.
[12]新华社,调查：广东农民工平均月薪1600元[0 L],新华每日电讯,2008-12-28.
[13]章刚勇,阮陆宁,农村外出劳动力回流的宏观层面解释[J],经济研究参考,2009,30.
[14]Aaron Han and Jerry A. Hausman,1990, "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models" Journal ofApplied Econometrics 5(1),1-28.
[15]Borjas G. J,1989, "Immigrant and emigrant earnings:a longitudinal study" Economic Inquiry 27,21-37.
[16]Gabriel Gonzalez Konig,2000, "Return migration:Theory and evidence from returning migrants to Western Mexico", Georgetown University working paper# 99-13. Re-submitted to the Journal of Labor Economics.
[17]Gmelch G,1980, "Returning migration" Annual Review of Anthropology 9,135-159.
[18]Liang Z, Wu Y,2003, "Return migration in China:new methods and findings", the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, MN.
[19]Ma Z,2001, "Urban labour-force experiences as a determinant of rural occupation change: evidence from recent urban-rural return migration in China" Environment and Planning A 33, 237-255.
[20]Ma Z,2002, "Social-capital mobilization and income returns to entrepreneurship:the case of return migration in rural China" Environment and Planning A 34,1763-1784.
[21]Murphy R,1999, "Return migrants and economic diversification in two countries in South Jiangxi, China" Journal of International Development 11,661-672.
[22]Nicola Coniglio, Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga,2009, "Clandestine migrants: Do the High-Skilled Return Home First?",2nd International Conference on Migration and Development, Washington D.C.
[23]Nicholas M. Kiefei,1988, "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions" Journal of Economic Literature,26(2),646-679.
[24]Pottinger R,1987, "Return Migration and Rural Industrial Employment:A Navajo Case Study" PhD thesis, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO.
[25]Saenz R, Davila A,1992, "Chicano return migration to the southwest:an integrated human capital approach" International Migration Review 26,1248-1266.
[26]YaoHui Zhao,2003, "the Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration:the Case of China" Contemporary Economic Policy 21 (4),500-511.
[27]Wenfei Winnie Wang & C Candy Fan,2006, "Success or failure:selectivity and reasons of return migration in Sichuan and Anhui, China", Environment and Planning A 2006,38,939-958.