基于模糊理论的项目进度管理研究
摘要
在上世纪五六十年代，随着生产分工的深入、市场竞争的加剧和经济的全球化发展，企业需要一种灵活的、直接面向客户和结果的方式来组织资源，项目管理应运而生。为了达到项目管理目标，进行符合实际和规律的计划和控制是有益的和必要的。
进度管理的网络计划技术方法不仅能完整揭示一个项目所包含的全部工作以及他们之间的关系，而且还能应用最优化技术合理安排各项工作。但CPM(Critical Path Method)进行工序历时估计的单一性使之不容易得到反映实际情况的值；而PERT(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)模型为了简化计算而进行的一系列假设导致得出的平均项目时间几乎总是小于实际统计平均值，方差值却往往大于实际方差值。本文使用的模糊网络计划是通过用模糊数表示工序历时，从而更好的反映了人们在进行历时估计时的思维特点，不但可以实现对最关键线路的关注，也有利于形成对其他线路进行动态监测，以更好的适应不断变化的项目环境和工程实施条件。
为了进行有效的项目进度管理，必须使计划的执行过程处于良好的控制之下。由于模糊系统可以作为任何非线性系统的万能逼近器，所以本文假定模糊控制可以应用到项目进度管理系统中。本文即对模糊控制系统在项目进度管理中的应用进行了比较详尽的分析，选择了符合项目实施特点的算法结构，最终实现了基于模糊技术的工程项目进度管理系统。
From the 50-60's in 20th century, with the development of specialization, aggravation of competition and the globalization of economy, enterprise begins a way of organizing resource that is flexible and faced directly to customers and results which is called project management. To meet the goal, it is necessary and profitable to make feasible plans and execute effective controls.
The network planning methods in the time fields of project management can articulate not only all the activities and relations of a project completely, but the critical activities through mathematical methods and optimization techniques. Nevertheless, the simplicity of activity duration estimating in the CPM(Critical Path Method) can hardly engender actual value. While PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) always gets smaller project duration with larger variation because of a series of hypothesizes which intended to make calculation easier. In this thesis we use fuzzy network planning technique to schedule the large projects. That the duration is defined with fuzzy number in fuzzy network make it better to reflect people's thinking characters when making duration estimating. Using this method we can monitor the other paths while monitoring the critical path and get a better adoption to the project circumstance.
Performing the plan is much more important than plan itself. This thesis makes the hypothesis that fuzzy control can also be applied to project scheduling management on the basis of fuzzy system being any nonlinear system's omnipotent simulator. This thesis makes a detailed analysis of fuzzy control in apply of project time management, and chooses the appropriate algorithm structure which fits the character of project performing so as to realize the fuzzy engineering project time management system at last.
进度管理的网络计划技术方法不仅能完整揭示一个项目所包含的全部工作以及他们之间的关系，而且还能应用最优化技术合理安排各项工作。但CPM(Critical Path Method)进行工序历时估计的单一性使之不容易得到反映实际情况的值；而PERT(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)模型为了简化计算而进行的一系列假设导致得出的平均项目时间几乎总是小于实际统计平均值，方差值却往往大于实际方差值。本文使用的模糊网络计划是通过用模糊数表示工序历时，从而更好的反映了人们在进行历时估计时的思维特点，不但可以实现对最关键线路的关注，也有利于形成对其他线路进行动态监测，以更好的适应不断变化的项目环境和工程实施条件。
为了进行有效的项目进度管理，必须使计划的执行过程处于良好的控制之下。由于模糊系统可以作为任何非线性系统的万能逼近器，所以本文假定模糊控制可以应用到项目进度管理系统中。本文即对模糊控制系统在项目进度管理中的应用进行了比较详尽的分析，选择了符合项目实施特点的算法结构，最终实现了基于模糊技术的工程项目进度管理系统。
From the 50-60's in 20th century, with the development of specialization, aggravation of competition and the globalization of economy, enterprise begins a way of organizing resource that is flexible and faced directly to customers and results which is called project management. To meet the goal, it is necessary and profitable to make feasible plans and execute effective controls.
The network planning methods in the time fields of project management can articulate not only all the activities and relations of a project completely, but the critical activities through mathematical methods and optimization techniques. Nevertheless, the simplicity of activity duration estimating in the CPM(Critical Path Method) can hardly engender actual value. While PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) always gets smaller project duration with larger variation because of a series of hypothesizes which intended to make calculation easier. In this thesis we use fuzzy network planning technique to schedule the large projects. That the duration is defined with fuzzy number in fuzzy network make it better to reflect people's thinking characters when making duration estimating. Using this method we can monitor the other paths while monitoring the critical path and get a better adoption to the project circumstance.
Performing the plan is much more important than plan itself. This thesis makes the hypothesis that fuzzy control can also be applied to project scheduling management on the basis of fuzzy system being any nonlinear system's omnipotent simulator. This thesis makes a detailed analysis of fuzzy control in apply of project time management, and chooses the appropriate algorithm structure which fits the character of project performing so as to realize the fuzzy engineering project time management system at last.
引文
1．梅瑞狄斯，曼特尔．项目管理——管理新视角[M] 电子工业出版社2002，8
2. Dubois D., H.Prade[1980], Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Aoolication, Academic Press. Inc. Orlando. Florida.
3．杨春德，周宗放．Fuzzy网络法分析[J]．重庆邮电学院学报，1994．1，p70-75．
4．刘春林，何建敏，盛昭瀚．应急模糊网络系统最大满意度路径的选取[J]．自动化学报，2000，26(5)，p609-615．
5．刘春林，何建敏．模糊计划网络最关键路的求取算法[J]．系统工程学报，2000，15(2)，p136-142．
6．胡志根，肖焕雄，向超群．模糊网络计划及其工期实现的可能性研究[J]．武汉水利电力大学学报1999 32(5)，p6-9．
7．胡劲松．模糊环境大型工程项目网络计划方法研究[J]．管理工程学报，2002，16(1)，p15-17．
8．王立新．模糊系统与模糊控制教程[M]．清华大学出版社．2003．6
9．欧进萍，张吉礼．模糊控制基本推理方法及其效果分析[J]．哈尔滨建筑大学学报 2000，04，
10．Tiomothy J·Ross[美]．模糊逻辑及其工程应用[M]．电子工业出版社．2001．10
11. L.X.Wang, J.M.Mendel. Generating fuzzy rules by learning from examples. IEEE Trans. On Systems, Man, and Cybern. Vol. 22, No. 6, pp.1414-1427,1992.
12. L.X. Wang. Stable adaptive fuzzy control of nonlinear systems. IEEE Trans. On Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp.146-255, 1993
13．Harold Kerznner．项目管理——计划、进度和控制的系统方法[M]．2002．9
14．许成绩，林政，王长峰等．现代项目管理教程[M]．中国宇航出版社．2003．05
15．美国项目管理协会．项目管理知识体系指南[M]．2000．02
16．白思俊等．现代项目管理[M]．机械工业出版社．2002．7
17．董景新，赵长德．控制工程基础[M]．清华大学出版社，1992年．
18．易继锴，侯媛彬．智能控制技术北京工业大学出版社，1999．09
19. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Philippe Fortemps. Fuzzy scheduling: Modeling flexible constrains vs. coping with incomplete knowledge[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (2003),p231-252.
20. Willy Herroelen, Roel leus. On the merits and pitfalls of critical chain scheduling[J]. Journal of Operation Management 19 (2001),p559-577.
21．李若刚，王国祥，李跃等．关于网络计划模型中的时间不确定性的讨论[J]．系统：工程与电子技术，1997．8，p40-45．
22. Stefan Chanas, Pawel Zielinski. Critical path analysis in the network with fuzzy activity times[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems 122 (2001), p195-204.
23. Don-Lin Mon,Ching-Hsue Cheng, Han-Chung Lu. Application of Fuzzy Distributions on Project Management[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems,1995,p227-234.
24．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络的活动最优延续时间分析[J]．系统工程理论与实践，1998，9，p50-54．
25．郑周练，赵长荣．模糊数计算非肯定型网络计划[J]．基建管理优化 1999，3，p33-36．
26. S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi, E.teimouri. Path critical index and activity critical index in PERT networks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 141 (2002),p147-152.
27. Margaret E Shipley, Andre de Korvin, Khursheed Omer. BIFERT methodology versus PERT in project management: fuzzy probability instead of the beta distribution[J].Journal of Engineering and Technology Management,1997,p49-65.
28. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Vincent Galvagnon. On latest starting times and floats in activity networks with ill-known durations[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2003,p266-280.
29. M A A COX. Simple normal approximation to the completion time distribution for a PERT network[J].International Journal of Project Management 1995,Vol. 13 No.4, p265-270
30. Piernaolo Pontrandolfo. Project duration in stochastic networks by the PERT-path technique[J]. International Journal of Project Management (2000),p215-222.
31．胡劲松，达庆利．单代号模糊网络的关键路线分析[J]．系统工程理论与实践 1998．8，p108-112．
32. H.Steyn. Project management application of the theory of constrains beyond critical chain scheduling[J]. International Journal of Project Management 20(2002),p75-80.
33．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络中关键路线的项目时差差别方法[J]．系统工程学报 1997．1，p24-31．
34．陈浩光，陈庆华，张荣．网络计划模型中计算安全时差的一种模糊模型[J]．系统工程学报 2001，16(3)，p192-196．
35．周长春．非确定时间参数网络规划的一种新算法[J]．系统工程理论与实践 1998．5，p89-91．
36．杨湘，张连营，张杰．工程项目工期—成本综合模糊优化[J]．土木工程学报，2003，36(3)，p46-50．
37. Juite Wang. A fuzzy project scheduling approach to minimize schedule risk for product development[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems 127(2002),p99-116.
38. Dorota Kuchta. Use of fuzzy numbers in project risk (criticality) assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management (2001),p305-310
39．王亚平，宋吉荣，郭耀煌．基于模糊弧长的网络计划模型及其算法[J]．西南交通大学学报，1998，33(5)，p605-609．
40．王亚平，叶仁荪，郭耀煌．一类搭接作业模糊网络模型及其算法研究[J]．铁道学报，1999．4，p89-93．
41．张恩勤，施颂椒，翁正新．模糊系统的函数逼近特性研究[J] 模糊系统与数学 2000．02，p60-64
42．夏熙梅．基于模糊逻辑的模糊控制系统设计方法与研究[J] 工业技术经济2002．02，p56-58．
43．曾庆宁．含等式约束的全系数模糊线形规划[J] 系统理论与实践2000．09，p105-109．
44．袁义才，陈军．项目管理手册[M]中信出版社 2001，1
45．李春阳，周国华，李春光．模糊网络计划技术发展综述[J]．工程建设与设计．2004，2，p52～55．
46. R.O. D' Aquila, C. Crespoa, J.L. Mate, J. Pazos. An inference engine based on fuzzy logic for uncertain and imprecise expert reasoning[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 129 (2002) 187-202.
47. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Philippe Fortemps. Fuzzy scheduling: Modeling flexible constrains vs. coping with incomplete knowledge[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (2003) 231-252.
48. Nasution S.H. Fuzzy Critical Path Method[J]. IEEE Transaction on SMC, 1994; 24(1), p48-57
49．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络关键路线的工序时差判别方法[J]．系统工程学报，1997；12(1)，p24-32．
50. Remmelfanger H J. Network Analysis and Information Flow in Fuzzy Environment[J]. Fuzzy sets and Systems,1994,67(1),p119-128.
51. Swarup Medasani, Jaeseok Kim, Raghu Krishnapuram. An overview of membership function generation techniques for pattern recognition[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 19(1998),p391-417.
52. H.D. CHENG, JIM-RONG CHEN. Automatically Determine the Membership Function Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle[J]. Information Sciences96(1997) p163-182.
53. Ahmet Arslan, Mehmet Kaya.Determination of fuzzy logic membership functions using genetic algorithms[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001),p297-306
54. Tzung-Pei Hong, Jyh-bin Chen. Finding relevant attributes and membership functions[J]. Fuzzy Sets Systems 103(1999)3,p89-404.
55. Werner Van Leekwijck, Etienne E. Kerre. Defuzzification: criteria and classification[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 108 (1999), p159-178
56. MARK J. WlEMAN. Central Values of Fuzzy Numbers—Defuzzification[J]. Information Science100(1997),p207-215.
57. Eugene Roventaa, Tiberiu Spircub. Averaging procedures in defuzzfication processes[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 136 (2003),p375-385.
58. Ming Ma, Abraham Kandel, Menahem Friedman. A new approach for defuzzification[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 111 (2000),p351-356.
59. L. Rondeau, R. Ruelas, L. Levrat, M. Lamotte. A defuzzification method respecting the fuzzification[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 86 (1997), p311-320.
60. Qiang Song, Robert P. Leland. Adaptive learning defuzzfication technique and applications[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 11 (1996), p321-329.
2. Dubois D., H.Prade[1980], Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Aoolication, Academic Press. Inc. Orlando. Florida.
3．杨春德，周宗放．Fuzzy网络法分析[J]．重庆邮电学院学报，1994．1，p70-75．
4．刘春林，何建敏，盛昭瀚．应急模糊网络系统最大满意度路径的选取[J]．自动化学报，2000，26(5)，p609-615．
5．刘春林，何建敏．模糊计划网络最关键路的求取算法[J]．系统工程学报，2000，15(2)，p136-142．
6．胡志根，肖焕雄，向超群．模糊网络计划及其工期实现的可能性研究[J]．武汉水利电力大学学报1999 32(5)，p6-9．
7．胡劲松．模糊环境大型工程项目网络计划方法研究[J]．管理工程学报，2002，16(1)，p15-17．
8．王立新．模糊系统与模糊控制教程[M]．清华大学出版社．2003．6
9．欧进萍，张吉礼．模糊控制基本推理方法及其效果分析[J]．哈尔滨建筑大学学报 2000，04，
10．Tiomothy J·Ross[美]．模糊逻辑及其工程应用[M]．电子工业出版社．2001．10
11. L.X.Wang, J.M.Mendel. Generating fuzzy rules by learning from examples. IEEE Trans. On Systems, Man, and Cybern. Vol. 22, No. 6, pp.1414-1427,1992.
12. L.X. Wang. Stable adaptive fuzzy control of nonlinear systems. IEEE Trans. On Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp.146-255, 1993
13．Harold Kerznner．项目管理——计划、进度和控制的系统方法[M]．2002．9
14．许成绩，林政，王长峰等．现代项目管理教程[M]．中国宇航出版社．2003．05
15．美国项目管理协会．项目管理知识体系指南[M]．2000．02
16．白思俊等．现代项目管理[M]．机械工业出版社．2002．7
17．董景新，赵长德．控制工程基础[M]．清华大学出版社，1992年．
18．易继锴，侯媛彬．智能控制技术北京工业大学出版社，1999．09
19. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Philippe Fortemps. Fuzzy scheduling: Modeling flexible constrains vs. coping with incomplete knowledge[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (2003),p231-252.
20. Willy Herroelen, Roel leus. On the merits and pitfalls of critical chain scheduling[J]. Journal of Operation Management 19 (2001),p559-577.
21．李若刚，王国祥，李跃等．关于网络计划模型中的时间不确定性的讨论[J]．系统：工程与电子技术，1997．8，p40-45．
22. Stefan Chanas, Pawel Zielinski. Critical path analysis in the network with fuzzy activity times[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems 122 (2001), p195-204.
23. Don-Lin Mon,Ching-Hsue Cheng, Han-Chung Lu. Application of Fuzzy Distributions on Project Management[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems,1995,p227-234.
24．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络的活动最优延续时间分析[J]．系统工程理论与实践，1998，9，p50-54．
25．郑周练，赵长荣．模糊数计算非肯定型网络计划[J]．基建管理优化 1999，3，p33-36．
26. S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi, E.teimouri. Path critical index and activity critical index in PERT networks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 141 (2002),p147-152.
27. Margaret E Shipley, Andre de Korvin, Khursheed Omer. BIFERT methodology versus PERT in project management: fuzzy probability instead of the beta distribution[J].Journal of Engineering and Technology Management,1997,p49-65.
28. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Vincent Galvagnon. On latest starting times and floats in activity networks with ill-known durations[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2003,p266-280.
29. M A A COX. Simple normal approximation to the completion time distribution for a PERT network[J].International Journal of Project Management 1995,Vol. 13 No.4, p265-270
30. Piernaolo Pontrandolfo. Project duration in stochastic networks by the PERT-path technique[J]. International Journal of Project Management (2000),p215-222.
31．胡劲松，达庆利．单代号模糊网络的关键路线分析[J]．系统工程理论与实践 1998．8，p108-112．
32. H.Steyn. Project management application of the theory of constrains beyond critical chain scheduling[J]. International Journal of Project Management 20(2002),p75-80.
33．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络中关键路线的项目时差差别方法[J]．系统工程学报 1997．1，p24-31．
34．陈浩光，陈庆华，张荣．网络计划模型中计算安全时差的一种模糊模型[J]．系统工程学报 2001，16(3)，p192-196．
35．周长春．非确定时间参数网络规划的一种新算法[J]．系统工程理论与实践 1998．5，p89-91．
36．杨湘，张连营，张杰．工程项目工期—成本综合模糊优化[J]．土木工程学报，2003，36(3)，p46-50．
37. Juite Wang. A fuzzy project scheduling approach to minimize schedule risk for product development[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems 127(2002),p99-116.
38. Dorota Kuchta. Use of fuzzy numbers in project risk (criticality) assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management (2001),p305-310
39．王亚平，宋吉荣，郭耀煌．基于模糊弧长的网络计划模型及其算法[J]．西南交通大学学报，1998，33(5)，p605-609．
40．王亚平，叶仁荪，郭耀煌．一类搭接作业模糊网络模型及其算法研究[J]．铁道学报，1999．4，p89-93．
41．张恩勤，施颂椒，翁正新．模糊系统的函数逼近特性研究[J] 模糊系统与数学 2000．02，p60-64
42．夏熙梅．基于模糊逻辑的模糊控制系统设计方法与研究[J] 工业技术经济2002．02，p56-58．
43．曾庆宁．含等式约束的全系数模糊线形规划[J] 系统理论与实践2000．09，p105-109．
44．袁义才，陈军．项目管理手册[M]中信出版社 2001，1
45．李春阳，周国华，李春光．模糊网络计划技术发展综述[J]．工程建设与设计．2004，2，p52～55．
46. R.O. D' Aquila, C. Crespoa, J.L. Mate, J. Pazos. An inference engine based on fuzzy logic for uncertain and imprecise expert reasoning[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 129 (2002) 187-202.
47. Didier Dubois, Helene Fargier, Philippe Fortemps. Fuzzy scheduling: Modeling flexible constrains vs. coping with incomplete knowledge[J]. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (2003) 231-252.
48. Nasution S.H. Fuzzy Critical Path Method[J]. IEEE Transaction on SMC, 1994; 24(1), p48-57
49．胡劲松，达庆利．模糊网络关键路线的工序时差判别方法[J]．系统工程学报，1997；12(1)，p24-32．
50. Remmelfanger H J. Network Analysis and Information Flow in Fuzzy Environment[J]. Fuzzy sets and Systems,1994,67(1),p119-128.
51. Swarup Medasani, Jaeseok Kim, Raghu Krishnapuram. An overview of membership function generation techniques for pattern recognition[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 19(1998),p391-417.
52. H.D. CHENG, JIM-RONG CHEN. Automatically Determine the Membership Function Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle[J]. Information Sciences96(1997) p163-182.
53. Ahmet Arslan, Mehmet Kaya.Determination of fuzzy logic membership functions using genetic algorithms[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001),p297-306
54. Tzung-Pei Hong, Jyh-bin Chen. Finding relevant attributes and membership functions[J]. Fuzzy Sets Systems 103(1999)3,p89-404.
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