实物期权在企业并购中的应用
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摘要
面对市场经济的发展与全球信息化的迅速推进,公司兼并与收购重组战略是公司成长、成熟与稳定乃至全球化过程中最为关键的经营战略之一。通过兼并与收购,可以取得规模经济与降低经营风险。同时,可以推动社会的产业结构调整、优化资源配置,提高经济的整体竞争能力。而标的公司的未来价值上升预测被认为是兼并与收购买卖的核心,能否确定合理的成交价关系着兼并与收购的成败。因此,对兼并与收购中标的公司未来价值上升预测的理论与实践研究是适应经济发展客观形势的要求的。
以往的公司未来价值上升预测方法忽视了公司兼并与收购中的期权价值,从而低估了公司的价值。本文主要分析了公司兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了公司兼并与收购的实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。利用实物期权思想来识别兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。在分析了折现现金流量法的基础上,本文研究了如何在标的公司的未来价值上升预测中应用实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。通过有机地结合折现现金流量法与实物期权测算框架,建立了标的公司未来价值上升预测框架。论文的研究结果表明,实物期权可以被应用于国内公司的兼并与收购行为中,具体表现在两个方面:第一,对标的公司为ST公司的股权价值实施测算;第二,对通过兼并与收购所获得的投资机会实施未来价值上升预测。论文还进一步提出了实物期权在公司兼并与收购中具备价值的限制条件,为兼并与收购双方正确认识公司兼并与收购过程中所蕴含的实物期权价值提供了有意义的参考。
With the rapid development of economy and the global information, the company M & A strategy on the company's growth, maturity, stability and the process of globalization is the most important business strategy.Through M and A can be achieved by economies of scale and reduce operational risks. At the same time, it can promote industrial restructuring, optimize resource allocation, improve the competitiveness. And assess the value of the target company be considered the core of M & A transactions, determine a reasonable purchase price related to the success or failure of mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the target company in M & A valuation theory and practice of research is to adapt to the economic development of the requirements of the objective situation.
Traditional valuation methods of the company ignored the company's mergers and acquisitions in the option value and thus underestimate the value of the company. In this paper, analysis of the company's M & A options characteristics, and set up the company's M & A Real Option Valuation Model. Use of real options thinking to identify the characteristics of M & A options, and set up a real option valuation model. In an analysis of discounted cash flow method, this paper how the target company's value assessment of the application of real options valuation model. Through organic combination of discounted cash flow method and real options evaluation model, set up the target company valuation model. Thesis research results show that real options can be applied to domestic enterprises mergers and acquisitions activities, specifically manifested in two aspects: First, the target company shares for the ST value assessment; Secondly, through mergers and acquisitions obtained to assess the value of investment opportunities. It was further put forward a thesis of real options in mergers and acquisitions have value in limiting conditions for the acquisition of a correct understanding of both mergers and acquisitions process inherent in the value of real options provides a meaningful reference.
以往的公司未来价值上升预测方法忽视了公司兼并与收购中的期权价值,从而低估了公司的价值。本文主要分析了公司兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了公司兼并与收购的实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。利用实物期权思想来识别兼并与收购中的期权特性,并建立了实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。在分析了折现现金流量法的基础上,本文研究了如何在标的公司的未来价值上升预测中应用实物期权未来价值上升预测框架。通过有机地结合折现现金流量法与实物期权测算框架,建立了标的公司未来价值上升预测框架。论文的研究结果表明,实物期权可以被应用于国内公司的兼并与收购行为中,具体表现在两个方面:第一,对标的公司为ST公司的股权价值实施测算;第二,对通过兼并与收购所获得的投资机会实施未来价值上升预测。论文还进一步提出了实物期权在公司兼并与收购中具备价值的限制条件,为兼并与收购双方正确认识公司兼并与收购过程中所蕴含的实物期权价值提供了有意义的参考。
With the rapid development of economy and the global information, the company M & A strategy on the company's growth, maturity, stability and the process of globalization is the most important business strategy.Through M and A can be achieved by economies of scale and reduce operational risks. At the same time, it can promote industrial restructuring, optimize resource allocation, improve the competitiveness. And assess the value of the target company be considered the core of M & A transactions, determine a reasonable purchase price related to the success or failure of mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the target company in M & A valuation theory and practice of research is to adapt to the economic development of the requirements of the objective situation.
Traditional valuation methods of the company ignored the company's mergers and acquisitions in the option value and thus underestimate the value of the company. In this paper, analysis of the company's M & A options characteristics, and set up the company's M & A Real Option Valuation Model. Use of real options thinking to identify the characteristics of M & A options, and set up a real option valuation model. In an analysis of discounted cash flow method, this paper how the target company's value assessment of the application of real options valuation model. Through organic combination of discounted cash flow method and real options evaluation model, set up the target company valuation model. Thesis research results show that real options can be applied to domestic enterprises mergers and acquisitions activities, specifically manifested in two aspects: First, the target company shares for the ST value assessment; Secondly, through mergers and acquisitions obtained to assess the value of investment opportunities. It was further put forward a thesis of real options in mergers and acquisitions have value in limiting conditions for the acquisition of a correct understanding of both mergers and acquisitions process inherent in the value of real options provides a meaningful reference.
引文
1 Triole Jean.张维迎译 产业组织理论 北京人民人学出版社,1997.233-242
2 徐学民,汗涛,徐金发公司兼井籍合管理的实证研究及启示中国软科学,2000(3)73-75
3 Hayes R,Garvin D.Managing as if tomorrow Mattered[J].Harvard Business Review,1982,3 71-79
4 Trigeorgis L,Manson S.Valuing Flesibility as a Complex Option[J].Journal of Finance 1987,45(6) 594-565
5 张维,齐安甜 公司并购理论研究评述 南开管理评论,2002,(2)21-26
6 Black F,Scholes M.The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81 637-659
7 Cox J,Ross S,Rubinstein M.Option Pricing:Asinplified Approach[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1979,7 229-263
8 齐安甜,张维,吴中元 公司并购的期权特征分析与定价研究 预测,2003,22 14-17
9 周春喜,张俊 公司并购的期权特征及其期权价值衡量 售价理论与实践,2003 55-56
10 Myers S C.Determinants of Corporate Borrowing.Jorunal of Financial Economics.1977.11 147-176
11 Trigeorgis L.Real Options in Capital Investments:Model,Strategies,and Application[M]Praeger,Westport,Conn 1955
12 Farzin Y H K,Huisnian J M,Kort P M.Optional Timing of Technology Adoption.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Contol.1998 22 779-799
13 Doraszelski U The Net Present Value Method versus the Option Value of Waiting[j]Journal of Economic Dynamics and control 2001,8 1109-1115
14 Nicolas bloom.Real Options Patents Productiveity and Market Value Evidendce from a Panel of British Firms.Ifs:working Paper,W00/21,2001
15 Dixit A Pindyck R The Options Approach to Capital Investment.Harvard Business Review,1995,3 105-115
16 Hartman r,hendrickson m optimal partially reversible investment.journal of economic dynamics and contol 1999 26483-508
17 Chung K charoenwong C Investment Options Assets in Place and the Risk of Stocks.Financial Management.1991 201991
18 Schwartz E S Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Financial Analysts Journal 2000 3
19 Majd s pindyck r time to build,option value and investment decisions Journal of financial economics 1987 18 7-27
20 陈小悦,杨潜林实物期权的分析与估值 系统工程理论方法应用,1998 6-9
21 高佳卿,刘胜军,康力立,资本投资的期权理论与方法 经济理论与经济管理,1998 41-3
[1]中国并购交易网
[2]刘祥生,干春晖。《企业并购-理论、实务、案例》。立信会计出版社,2002
[3]于世林,《在高收入与高亏损中前行》。通信信息报2002.12.19
[4]Abraham.K and Farber.H.Job duration,seniority and earnings.American Economic Review,1987(4):278-297.
[5]Barney.Firmresource and sustained competitive advantage.Journal of Management,1991(3):99-120.
[6]Altonzi,J.and Shakotko.R.Do wage rise with job seniority? Review of Economic Studies 1987(11):437-459.
[7]Becker.Gary S.Nobel Lecture:The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior.The Journal of Political Economy,1993:385-409.
[8]Choi,F.D.S.and Mueler.International accounting.England,Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall,1992
[9]Brooking.Intellectual capital:core asset for the third millennium enterprise.International Thomson Business Press,1996.
[10]Cascio.W.Costing human resources:the financial impact of behavior in organizations,1991.
[11]Choi,F.D.S.and Mueler.International accounting.England,Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall,1992
[12]Chen,H.M.& Lin,K.J.The role of human capital cost in accounting.Journal of intellectual capital,2004:116-130.
[13]Delaney,J.T and Huselid.M.A.The impact of human resource management practices on perceptions of organizational performance.Academy of Management Journal 1(1):88-171.
[14]Karl-Heinz Lietner.Data envelopment analysis as method for evaluating intellectual capital.Journal of Intellectual Capital,2005:528-543.
[12]Knight,D.J..Performance measures for increasing intellectual capital.Strategy & Leadership[J],27(I2):22-27.
[15]Sarrico,Hogan,Dyson,et al.Data Envelopment Analysis and University Selection[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,1997(48):1163-1177.
[16]Avkiran.Investigating Technical and Scale Efficiencies of Australian Universitiesthrough Data Envelopment Analysis[J].Socio-Economic Planning Science,2001(35):57-80.
[17]Korhnen,Tainio,Wallenius.Value Efficiency Analysis of Academic Research[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001(130):121-132.
[18]Abbott,Doucouliagos.A DEA of the Efficiency of Victorian TAFE Institutes[J].TheAustralian Economic Review.2002(35):55-69.
[19]东方高圣投资顾问有限公司,北京理工大学出版社,《上市公司收购管理办法》2002
[20]周邵妮,王东,《中国并购报告》2003
[21]远山。《并购之祸》。价值。2002
[22]吴晓求,陈共,周盛业,《公司并购原理与案例》。中国人民大学出版社,1998
[23]曲瑾。《小鱼吃大鱼》。软件世界,总期号;192
[24]罗小明。《国企改组渊源》。资本市场,2003
[25]世东名。《外资并购国企的双赢机制》。资本市场2003
[22]财政部统计评价司.企业绩效评价问答.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:3
[23]锦鳞波,《中国企业大并购》,北京,社会科学文献出版社2002
[24]刘文通,《公司兼并收购论》,北京,北京大学出版社,1997
[25]黄湘源,《担保黑洞20例》,资本市场,2001
[26]周到,公司间互保引发问题不少 担保缘何屡伤上市公司,证券日报,2002,9,13
[27]黄瑞荣,《兼并、收购与重组-过程北京》,机械工业出版社,2004:5
[28]张秋生,《企业兼并与收购》,北京,北方交通大学出版社,2001
[29]张剑,《一加一是否大于二》,建筑,2000(9)
[30]深万科(0002)被华润收购,中国并购交易网
[31]刘军,《实物期权在公司兼并与收购未来价值上升预测中的应用研究》,经济学硕士学位论文,成都,西南交通大学,2005:9
[32]陈新元,董华,《企业合并的会计方法选择》,会计研究,2002(4)
[33]郝净,《兼并与收购中的公司未来价值上升预测问题初探》,武汉市经济管理干部学院学报,2003(6):95
[34]张涛伟《期权与其它衍生产品》,北京,华夏出版社,2000:332-333
[35]张自强,《公司未来价值上升预测-有效测算与决策的工具》,北京,华夏出版社,2001:15
[36]周全名,企业并购案例研究,河北工业出版社,2001
[37]谷明玉,《浅谈实物期权》,价值工程,2003(5)
[38]杨屹,《实物期权估价理论综述及未来研究展望》,数量经济技术经济研究,2004(2):147
[39]任德平,《标的公司实物期权估价方法及应用研究》,管理学硕士学位论文,长沙,湖南大学,2003:12
[40]夏健明,《实物期权理论述评》,上海金融学院学报,2005(1):5
[41]张维,《实物期权:不确定环境下的战略投资管理》,北京,机械工业出版社,2001:8
[42]杨春鹏,《实物期权及其应用》,上海,复旦大学出版社,2003:4
[43]张志雄,《面对狗熊式的拥抱》,财经,2000(5)
[44]华润集团有限公司主页http://wwwCrCCmohk
[45].金融界个股档案华润生化,http://share.jrj.com.cn/cominfo/default_600893.htm
2 徐学民,汗涛,徐金发公司兼井籍合管理的实证研究及启示中国软科学,2000(3)73-75
3 Hayes R,Garvin D.Managing as if tomorrow Mattered[J].Harvard Business Review,1982,3 71-79
4 Trigeorgis L,Manson S.Valuing Flesibility as a Complex Option[J].Journal of Finance 1987,45(6) 594-565
5 张维,齐安甜 公司并购理论研究评述 南开管理评论,2002,(2)21-26
6 Black F,Scholes M.The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81 637-659
7 Cox J,Ross S,Rubinstein M.Option Pricing:Asinplified Approach[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1979,7 229-263
8 齐安甜,张维,吴中元 公司并购的期权特征分析与定价研究 预测,2003,22 14-17
9 周春喜,张俊 公司并购的期权特征及其期权价值衡量 售价理论与实践,2003 55-56
10 Myers S C.Determinants of Corporate Borrowing.Jorunal of Financial Economics.1977.11 147-176
11 Trigeorgis L.Real Options in Capital Investments:Model,Strategies,and Application[M]Praeger,Westport,Conn 1955
12 Farzin Y H K,Huisnian J M,Kort P M.Optional Timing of Technology Adoption.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Contol.1998 22 779-799
13 Doraszelski U The Net Present Value Method versus the Option Value of Waiting[j]Journal of Economic Dynamics and control 2001,8 1109-1115
14 Nicolas bloom.Real Options Patents Productiveity and Market Value Evidendce from a Panel of British Firms.Ifs:working Paper,W00/21,2001
15 Dixit A Pindyck R The Options Approach to Capital Investment.Harvard Business Review,1995,3 105-115
16 Hartman r,hendrickson m optimal partially reversible investment.journal of economic dynamics and contol 1999 26483-508
17 Chung K charoenwong C Investment Options Assets in Place and the Risk of Stocks.Financial Management.1991 201991
18 Schwartz E S Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Financial Analysts Journal 2000 3
19 Majd s pindyck r time to build,option value and investment decisions Journal of financial economics 1987 18 7-27
20 陈小悦,杨潜林实物期权的分析与估值 系统工程理论方法应用,1998 6-9
21 高佳卿,刘胜军,康力立,资本投资的期权理论与方法 经济理论与经济管理,1998 41-3
[1]中国并购交易网
[2]刘祥生,干春晖。《企业并购-理论、实务、案例》。立信会计出版社,2002
[3]于世林,《在高收入与高亏损中前行》。通信信息报2002.12.19
[4]Abraham.K and Farber.H.Job duration,seniority and earnings.American Economic Review,1987(4):278-297.
[5]Barney.Firmresource and sustained competitive advantage.Journal of Management,1991(3):99-120.
[6]Altonzi,J.and Shakotko.R.Do wage rise with job seniority? Review of Economic Studies 1987(11):437-459.
[7]Becker.Gary S.Nobel Lecture:The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior.The Journal of Political Economy,1993:385-409.
[8]Choi,F.D.S.and Mueler.International accounting.England,Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall,1992
[9]Brooking.Intellectual capital:core asset for the third millennium enterprise.International Thomson Business Press,1996.
[10]Cascio.W.Costing human resources:the financial impact of behavior in organizations,1991.
[11]Choi,F.D.S.and Mueler.International accounting.England,Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall,1992
[12]Chen,H.M.& Lin,K.J.The role of human capital cost in accounting.Journal of intellectual capital,2004:116-130.
[13]Delaney,J.T and Huselid.M.A.The impact of human resource management practices on perceptions of organizational performance.Academy of Management Journal 1(1):88-171.
[14]Karl-Heinz Lietner.Data envelopment analysis as method for evaluating intellectual capital.Journal of Intellectual Capital,2005:528-543.
[12]Knight,D.J..Performance measures for increasing intellectual capital.Strategy & Leadership[J],27(I2):22-27.
[15]Sarrico,Hogan,Dyson,et al.Data Envelopment Analysis and University Selection[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,1997(48):1163-1177.
[16]Avkiran.Investigating Technical and Scale Efficiencies of Australian Universitiesthrough Data Envelopment Analysis[J].Socio-Economic Planning Science,2001(35):57-80.
[17]Korhnen,Tainio,Wallenius.Value Efficiency Analysis of Academic Research[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001(130):121-132.
[18]Abbott,Doucouliagos.A DEA of the Efficiency of Victorian TAFE Institutes[J].TheAustralian Economic Review.2002(35):55-69.
[19]东方高圣投资顾问有限公司,北京理工大学出版社,《上市公司收购管理办法》2002
[20]周邵妮,王东,《中国并购报告》2003
[21]远山。《并购之祸》。价值。2002
[22]吴晓求,陈共,周盛业,《公司并购原理与案例》。中国人民大学出版社,1998
[23]曲瑾。《小鱼吃大鱼》。软件世界,总期号;192
[24]罗小明。《国企改组渊源》。资本市场,2003
[25]世东名。《外资并购国企的双赢机制》。资本市场2003
[22]财政部统计评价司.企业绩效评价问答.北京:经济科学出版社,1999:3
[23]锦鳞波,《中国企业大并购》,北京,社会科学文献出版社2002
[24]刘文通,《公司兼并收购论》,北京,北京大学出版社,1997
[25]黄湘源,《担保黑洞20例》,资本市场,2001
[26]周到,公司间互保引发问题不少 担保缘何屡伤上市公司,证券日报,2002,9,13
[27]黄瑞荣,《兼并、收购与重组-过程北京》,机械工业出版社,2004:5
[28]张秋生,《企业兼并与收购》,北京,北方交通大学出版社,2001
[29]张剑,《一加一是否大于二》,建筑,2000(9)
[30]深万科(0002)被华润收购,中国并购交易网
[31]刘军,《实物期权在公司兼并与收购未来价值上升预测中的应用研究》,经济学硕士学位论文,成都,西南交通大学,2005:9
[32]陈新元,董华,《企业合并的会计方法选择》,会计研究,2002(4)
[33]郝净,《兼并与收购中的公司未来价值上升预测问题初探》,武汉市经济管理干部学院学报,2003(6):95
[34]张涛伟《期权与其它衍生产品》,北京,华夏出版社,2000:332-333
[35]张自强,《公司未来价值上升预测-有效测算与决策的工具》,北京,华夏出版社,2001:15
[36]周全名,企业并购案例研究,河北工业出版社,2001
[37]谷明玉,《浅谈实物期权》,价值工程,2003(5)
[38]杨屹,《实物期权估价理论综述及未来研究展望》,数量经济技术经济研究,2004(2):147
[39]任德平,《标的公司实物期权估价方法及应用研究》,管理学硕士学位论文,长沙,湖南大学,2003:12
[40]夏健明,《实物期权理论述评》,上海金融学院学报,2005(1):5
[41]张维,《实物期权:不确定环境下的战略投资管理》,北京,机械工业出版社,2001:8
[42]杨春鹏,《实物期权及其应用》,上海,复旦大学出版社,2003:4
[43]张志雄,《面对狗熊式的拥抱》,财经,2000(5)
[44]华润集团有限公司主页http://wwwCrCCmohk
[45].金融界个股档案华润生化,http://share.jrj.com.cn/cominfo/default_600893.htm