中国煤—电纵向价格双轨制问题研究
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摘要
中国是一个燃煤发电大国,煤炭和电力是唇齿相依的上、下游产业,两个产业是否协调关系着电力的稳定供应。但是近些年来这两个产业冲突不断,在每年的煤炭订货会上,煤-电双方都会因电煤交易发生争执,与此同时电力供应长期失衡,严重干扰了国民经济的正常运转,煤-电冲突问题已经成为剪不断、理还乱的难解之“谜”。对于电力供需失衡的原因一直存在很多说法,如装机容量不足、季节因素、天气因素还有电煤供应不足等等,但本文认为,煤-电之争表面上是两个产业的利益纷争,背后反映的却是煤-电价格体制的不顺,煤炭产业先于电力产业市场化和电力市场化改革不彻底是煤-电冲突的深层次体制原因。“纵向价格双轨制”是于立(1992)首先提出的一个概念,指的是在生产的不同阶段同时出现计划价和市场价两种价格形成机制,目前中国煤炭价格基本由市场形成,属于市场价,电力的价格受到严格行政控制,属于计划(规制)价,这是典型的“纵向价格双轨制”。煤-电之间的“纵向价格双轨制”应是引发煤电冲突的关键,围绕这一问题,本文运用博弈论构建了一个煤-电纵向关系的理论模型,同时使用经济计量学的方法对纵向价格双轨制进行了实证检验,具体而言本文的工作主要体现在以下四个方面：
一是根据中国煤炭、电力企业现实情况构建了一个煤-电纵向价格双轨制的博弈模型,对纵向价格双轨制的影响及其机理进行了理论分析,考察了纵向价格双轨制下的经济增长、煤炭市场集中度、资源税费等因素在煤-电关系中的影响,由理论模型得出的结论对于政策制定具有一定参考意义；二是使用中国历史数据对煤-电纵向价格双轨制进行了实证检验,连绵数年的电力短缺为考察纵向价格双轨制提供了生动的素材,本文通过搜集数据估计了各年度的电力缺口,探讨了电力缺口与煤炭价格、电力缺口与电力价格之间的互动,检验了电力短缺与纵向价格双轨制的关系；三是介绍了国外纵向价格双轨制的经验教训,美国加州和英国的电力体制改革过程中,都不同程度的存在纵向价格双轨制问题,总结它们的经验和教训对于中国的改革不无裨益；四是分析了纵向价格双轨制下的电力、煤炭消费模式,在估计了电力、煤炭消费模式的基础上,预测了经济发展对电力的需求以及对电煤的需求情况,对煤-电关系的未来进行了展望。
本文得出了五点研究结论：一是煤炭产业和电力产业之间存在纵向价格双轨制,纵向价格双轨制的存在引发了煤-电冲突和电力供需失衡；二是当存在纵向价格双轨制时,经济增长、煤炭企业的市场势力和资源税费水平均会影响电力供需均衡,但这些因素本身不会带来电力供需失衡,如果消除纵向价格双轨制,它们仅会使得均衡移动；三是煤-电价格联动存在实施上的困境,最优联动价格是一个两阶段博弈结果,实际中不可能计算出这一结果,价格规制者试错式制定价格可以使联动价格收敛于最优,但是代价和成本是高昂的；四是纵向价格双轨制具有不可持续性,它鼓励了企业浪费电力,造就了以高电耗为代价的粗放型经济增长,电力消耗又带动了煤炭消耗,加快了煤炭资源的过快耗竭,这对中国的能源承载力构成了严峻挑战；五是中国亟需消除纵向价格双轨制,加快电力体制改革步伐,同时辅以推出电煤期货的政策,最大限度的平抑煤炭价格波动,只有这样才能协调煤-电关系。
China is a country whose electricity is most generated from burning coal. Coal industry is closely linked with electricity industry, harmonization of the relation between them is critical to stable supplying of electricity. But recently the conflict between coal industry and electricity industry arises frequently. On the past coal trade conferences, coal firms and electricity firms often quarreled over coal price, which caused unbalance of electricity supplying and disturbed the national economy. The conflict between coal industry and electricity industry has been a paradox which is not easy to interpret. The outside reason for the conflict is profit snatching, but the real reason is the inconsistency on coal price and electricity price:the reform in coal industry in advance of the reform in electricity industry. From the point of vertical pricing, the paper analyzes the relation between coal industry and electricity industry. "Vertical Dual Pricing System" is a economic concept advanced by Yu Li(1992), which means two kinds of price forming mechanism coexist in different stages of producing. At the moment Chinese coal price is formed in marketing manner and Chinese electricity price is regulated rigorously by government, which is "Vertical Dual Pricing System(VDPS)" typically. VDPS is core concept in the paper. Based on VDPS this paper constructed a vertical relation model about coal industry and electricity industry, then empirically tested VDPS through econometric method. A detailed account of the paper constitutes the following four parts:
Firstly, according to the reality of the Coal and the power industry of China, the paper built a game model of the vertical relations of the coal and electricity in which the VDPS and coal-electricity linkage policy was evaluated. From two aspects, the impact of economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax fee reform on the coal-electricity vertical relations was investigated. The conclusions by theoretical models have a certain reference value for policy-makers. Secondly, the relationship between supply-demand imbalance and VDPS was empirically tested by using Chinese history data. The shortage of electricity remaining a few years provides a vivid two-track material for the study on VDPS. The electricity shortages every year was estimated using collected data, then the interaction between electricity prices and electricity shortages, the interaction between coal prices and electricity shortages is explored, the relationship between electricity prices and VDPS was tested. Thirdly, the experiences and lessons of VDPS in foreign countries were introduced. VDPS also appeared in California and the United Kingdom reform process and summarizing their experience and lessons will be of great benefit to China. Fourthly, the electricity consumption and coal consumption patterns under VDPS are analyzed. Based on the electricity consumption patterns and coal consumption patterns which were estimated previously, the demand for electricity as well as the demand for electricity was evaluated in order to forecast the future.
The paper draws five research conclusions. First, there is VDPS between coal industry and electricity industry. It is the VDPS that leaded the conflict between coal industry and electricity industry, which also caused the unbalance of supply-demand. Second, under VDPS economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax and fee reform will affect the unbalance of supply-demand. But these factors itself don't lead the unbalance of supply-demand. If the VDPS is canceled, economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax and fee reform will remove the equilibrium only. Third, there are many difficulties in coal electricity price allied move policy. The optimal allied move price is the outcome of two stages game. It is impossible to get the outcome in reality except try and try whose cost is huge. Fourth, VDPS is impossible maintain a long time. VDPS encourage enterprise to waste electricity and electricity consuming leads coal exhausting, so VDPS threats the energy carrying Capacity in China. Fifth, VDPS should be canceled quickly. The proper solution about conflict between coal industry and electricity industry is to accelerate the pace of electricity and introduce coal futures in order to stabilize the fluctuation coal prices.
一是根据中国煤炭、电力企业现实情况构建了一个煤-电纵向价格双轨制的博弈模型,对纵向价格双轨制的影响及其机理进行了理论分析,考察了纵向价格双轨制下的经济增长、煤炭市场集中度、资源税费等因素在煤-电关系中的影响,由理论模型得出的结论对于政策制定具有一定参考意义；二是使用中国历史数据对煤-电纵向价格双轨制进行了实证检验,连绵数年的电力短缺为考察纵向价格双轨制提供了生动的素材,本文通过搜集数据估计了各年度的电力缺口,探讨了电力缺口与煤炭价格、电力缺口与电力价格之间的互动,检验了电力短缺与纵向价格双轨制的关系；三是介绍了国外纵向价格双轨制的经验教训,美国加州和英国的电力体制改革过程中,都不同程度的存在纵向价格双轨制问题,总结它们的经验和教训对于中国的改革不无裨益；四是分析了纵向价格双轨制下的电力、煤炭消费模式,在估计了电力、煤炭消费模式的基础上,预测了经济发展对电力的需求以及对电煤的需求情况,对煤-电关系的未来进行了展望。
本文得出了五点研究结论：一是煤炭产业和电力产业之间存在纵向价格双轨制,纵向价格双轨制的存在引发了煤-电冲突和电力供需失衡；二是当存在纵向价格双轨制时,经济增长、煤炭企业的市场势力和资源税费水平均会影响电力供需均衡,但这些因素本身不会带来电力供需失衡,如果消除纵向价格双轨制,它们仅会使得均衡移动；三是煤-电价格联动存在实施上的困境,最优联动价格是一个两阶段博弈结果,实际中不可能计算出这一结果,价格规制者试错式制定价格可以使联动价格收敛于最优,但是代价和成本是高昂的；四是纵向价格双轨制具有不可持续性,它鼓励了企业浪费电力,造就了以高电耗为代价的粗放型经济增长,电力消耗又带动了煤炭消耗,加快了煤炭资源的过快耗竭,这对中国的能源承载力构成了严峻挑战；五是中国亟需消除纵向价格双轨制,加快电力体制改革步伐,同时辅以推出电煤期货的政策,最大限度的平抑煤炭价格波动,只有这样才能协调煤-电关系。
China is a country whose electricity is most generated from burning coal. Coal industry is closely linked with electricity industry, harmonization of the relation between them is critical to stable supplying of electricity. But recently the conflict between coal industry and electricity industry arises frequently. On the past coal trade conferences, coal firms and electricity firms often quarreled over coal price, which caused unbalance of electricity supplying and disturbed the national economy. The conflict between coal industry and electricity industry has been a paradox which is not easy to interpret. The outside reason for the conflict is profit snatching, but the real reason is the inconsistency on coal price and electricity price:the reform in coal industry in advance of the reform in electricity industry. From the point of vertical pricing, the paper analyzes the relation between coal industry and electricity industry. "Vertical Dual Pricing System" is a economic concept advanced by Yu Li(1992), which means two kinds of price forming mechanism coexist in different stages of producing. At the moment Chinese coal price is formed in marketing manner and Chinese electricity price is regulated rigorously by government, which is "Vertical Dual Pricing System(VDPS)" typically. VDPS is core concept in the paper. Based on VDPS this paper constructed a vertical relation model about coal industry and electricity industry, then empirically tested VDPS through econometric method. A detailed account of the paper constitutes the following four parts:
Firstly, according to the reality of the Coal and the power industry of China, the paper built a game model of the vertical relations of the coal and electricity in which the VDPS and coal-electricity linkage policy was evaluated. From two aspects, the impact of economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax fee reform on the coal-electricity vertical relations was investigated. The conclusions by theoretical models have a certain reference value for policy-makers. Secondly, the relationship between supply-demand imbalance and VDPS was empirically tested by using Chinese history data. The shortage of electricity remaining a few years provides a vivid two-track material for the study on VDPS. The electricity shortages every year was estimated using collected data, then the interaction between electricity prices and electricity shortages, the interaction between coal prices and electricity shortages is explored, the relationship between electricity prices and VDPS was tested. Thirdly, the experiences and lessons of VDPS in foreign countries were introduced. VDPS also appeared in California and the United Kingdom reform process and summarizing their experience and lessons will be of great benefit to China. Fourthly, the electricity consumption and coal consumption patterns under VDPS are analyzed. Based on the electricity consumption patterns and coal consumption patterns which were estimated previously, the demand for electricity as well as the demand for electricity was evaluated in order to forecast the future.
The paper draws five research conclusions. First, there is VDPS between coal industry and electricity industry. It is the VDPS that leaded the conflict between coal industry and electricity industry, which also caused the unbalance of supply-demand. Second, under VDPS economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax and fee reform will affect the unbalance of supply-demand. But these factors itself don't lead the unbalance of supply-demand. If the VDPS is canceled, economic growth, concentration of the coal industrial, resource tax and fee reform will remove the equilibrium only. Third, there are many difficulties in coal electricity price allied move policy. The optimal allied move price is the outcome of two stages game. It is impossible to get the outcome in reality except try and try whose cost is huge. Fourth, VDPS is impossible maintain a long time. VDPS encourage enterprise to waste electricity and electricity consuming leads coal exhausting, so VDPS threats the energy carrying Capacity in China. Fifth, VDPS should be canceled quickly. The proper solution about conflict between coal industry and electricity industry is to accelerate the pace of electricity and introduce coal futures in order to stabilize the fluctuation coal prices.
引文
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