地表水源热泵系统全寿命周期成本分析
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摘要
地表水源热泵技术在我国的应用日益增加,但该项技术的推广也面临着技术经济优化问题。目前的建设方主要考虑的是一次性投资,而对运行费的回收考虑不多,另一方面,由于影响地表水源热泵系统涉及的因素较多,这也影响了对后期运行费的评估。从外部环境看,随着能源价格的普遍上涨及环境问题的严峻性,能耗较高的空调系统迫使人们不得不关注全寿命周期成本理论(Life Cycle Cost,简称LCC)。全寿命周期成本分析引导决策者和设计人员自觉地、全面地考虑空调方案的建设成本和运行成本,在方案决策时,按照LCC最小化的原则选择最佳方案。本文应用全寿命周期成本的思想,对地表水源热泵系统进行LCC分析与评价,并分析影响其成本的关键因素。
论文引入了全寿命周期成本理论到地表水源热泵系统中,分析其LCC构成体系,并给出了LCC的计算方法。对LCC计算方法中的折现率、寿命周期和通货膨胀率等影响因素进行了定性和定量分析。以传统空调系统为参照对象,从地表水源热泵系统LCC构成体系的初投资和运行成本运用权衡分析法,分析得到了不同条件下地表水源热泵系统运行成本的限值以及地表水源热泵系统相对于传统空调系统的初投资的限值。
利用DOE能耗分析软件,对重庆市办公楼、商场和宾馆三类典型公共建筑全年空调动态负荷进行分析,以模拟得出的空调负荷时间频数为基础,建立了利用地表水源热泵系统能耗模型计算系统全年运行能耗的方法。
以水源热泵机组运行工况为基础,分别对三类典型公共建筑运用地表水源热泵系统进行LCC计算,并以传统空调系统为参照对象进行了比较分析,从地表水源热泵系统的取水温度、取水方式和水泵运行方式等方面对LCC的影响进行了分析,得到如下结论:夏季取水温度比冬季取水温度对LCC的影响更显著,并且在某特定的取水温度下,即使在某时间工况下相比传统空调系统节能,但从全寿命周期看,其LCC值却高于传统空调系统;以初投资较高的渗滤取水方式为例,以其不同的投资成本方案为研究对象,定量分析得到了适当的取水温度以及控制取水系统的初投资,其全寿命周期是合适的结论;论文对取水水泵变频运行和定频运行对地表水源热泵系统年运行能耗的影响进行了分析,并得到了其对LCC的影响度。
针对LCC分析中的不确定性因素引入敏感性分析,并运用单因素敏感性分析法对地表水源热泵系统的LCC进行了分析,寻求得到了敏感性最强的因素即电价和初投资,并得到了决策时这两个因素的变动对决策结果的影响度。
论文最后以重庆市某实际地表水源热泵工程为例,根据该项目取水工程回水的用途,按取水能耗的计算方式和传统空调系统进行了对比分析;并利用该工程地表水源热泵系统夏季运行情况的实测数据,对该地表水源热泵系统LCC进行估算,并与LCC理论计算值进行了对比分析。
本文将全寿命周期成本理论引入到地表水源热泵系统中,分析了影响LCC值的各种影响因素,并对各种因素影响条件下的LCC值进行了定量分析。以权衡分析等方法为基础建立了一套可行的LCC计算流程以及地表水源热泵系统的评价比较方法,能够为有序推广地表水源热泵系统的发展奠定一定的经济理论基础。
The surface water heat pump technology has been increasingly applied in China. However, the promotion of this technology also faces the difficulty of technology economy optimizing. The present construction party mainly concerns about the one-time investment but not much about reclaiming the operating cost. On the other hand, the varieties of factors which may influence the surface water heat pump system also influence the assessment of the later stage operating cost. See from the external environment, with universal rise of the energy price as well as the severity of the environmental problems, the high energy consumption make people obliged to consider the life cycle cost theory. The life cycle cost analysis leads the decision maker and designers to consider the capital costs and operating cost of air-conditioning system consciously and comprehensively. In the decision stage of the scheme, they can choose the best plan according to the principle of minimal LCC. This paper will apply the idea of LCC to analyze and evaluate the surface water heat pump system as well as analyze the critical factor influencing its costs.
The theory of LCC to the surface water heat pump system will be introduced to analyze the constitutional system of its LCC and the formula of calculating LCC will be provided. Besides, this paper will do qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors such as discount rate, life cycle and rate of inflation which may influence the LCC. Furthermore, this paper will set the conventional air-conditioning system as the reference object. By applying the balance analytical process to initial cost and operating cost of the constitutional system of the surface water heat pump system, two conclusions will be reached: one is the limit value of its operating cost under different conditions, the other is the limit value of its initial cost with respect to the conventional air-conditioning system.
Through analyzing the annual air-conditioning dynamic load of three typical public buildings—office building, emporium and hotel in Chongqing by applying the DOE energy analytical software on the basis of the cooling load time frequency gained through simulation, the method of calculating the annual operating power consumption of the system will be established by using the energy consumption model of surface water heat pump system.
Through calculating the LCC of the three typical public buildings—office building, emporium and hotel in Chongqing respectively by applying the surface water heat pump system on the basis of the rated conditions of the specific heat pump unit, doing comparative analysis by using conventional air-conditioning system as a reference object, analyzing the influence of the water intake temperature, the water intake way and the pump’s operating mode of the surface water heat pump system on LCC, following conclusions are reached: the water intake in summer will have more obvious influence on LCC than intake in winter, and in a specific water intake temperature its LCC value is higher than the conventional air-conditioning system in the whole life cycle through it can save more energy than the conventional air-conditioning system in a specific operation condition; by setting infiltration water intake method as an example and different investment cost scheme as research object, and through quantitative analysis this paper reaches an conclusion that a proper water intake temperature and controlling the initial cost of water intake system can make a proper life cycle cost; the paper will also analyze the effect of the frequency conversion and steady frequency operation of the water-intake pump on the annual operating energy consumption of the surface water heat pump system, the extent of its influence on LCC will also be gained.
The sensitivity analysis will be introduced on account of the uncertainty factors in LCC analysis and through analyzing the LCC of the surface water heat pump system by applying the method of the single factor sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive factor—electricity price and initial cost will be gained as well as the extent of influence of the variation of these two factor on the result of decision when making decision.
At last, the paper set a practical surface water heat pump project as an example and make a comparative analysis to the conventional air-conditioning system by using the calculating method of water intake based on the purpose of the reclaimed water of the water intake project; Besides, the paper evaluate the LCC of its surface water heat pump system by making use of the actual data of its operating condition in summer and make a comparative analysis to the theoretical calculation value.
The paper introduce the theory of LCC to the surface water heat pump system to analyze variety of factors which may influence the value of LCC and do quantitative analysis of the LCC value under different conditions influenced by each factor. In addition, this paper will establish a set of feasible LCC calculating process, and evaluating and analyzing method of the surface water heat pump system based on the balance analysis methodology. All these will make a foundation of economic theory to gradually promote the development of the surface water heat pump system.
论文引入了全寿命周期成本理论到地表水源热泵系统中,分析其LCC构成体系,并给出了LCC的计算方法。对LCC计算方法中的折现率、寿命周期和通货膨胀率等影响因素进行了定性和定量分析。以传统空调系统为参照对象,从地表水源热泵系统LCC构成体系的初投资和运行成本运用权衡分析法,分析得到了不同条件下地表水源热泵系统运行成本的限值以及地表水源热泵系统相对于传统空调系统的初投资的限值。
利用DOE能耗分析软件,对重庆市办公楼、商场和宾馆三类典型公共建筑全年空调动态负荷进行分析,以模拟得出的空调负荷时间频数为基础,建立了利用地表水源热泵系统能耗模型计算系统全年运行能耗的方法。
以水源热泵机组运行工况为基础,分别对三类典型公共建筑运用地表水源热泵系统进行LCC计算,并以传统空调系统为参照对象进行了比较分析,从地表水源热泵系统的取水温度、取水方式和水泵运行方式等方面对LCC的影响进行了分析,得到如下结论:夏季取水温度比冬季取水温度对LCC的影响更显著,并且在某特定的取水温度下,即使在某时间工况下相比传统空调系统节能,但从全寿命周期看,其LCC值却高于传统空调系统;以初投资较高的渗滤取水方式为例,以其不同的投资成本方案为研究对象,定量分析得到了适当的取水温度以及控制取水系统的初投资,其全寿命周期是合适的结论;论文对取水水泵变频运行和定频运行对地表水源热泵系统年运行能耗的影响进行了分析,并得到了其对LCC的影响度。
针对LCC分析中的不确定性因素引入敏感性分析,并运用单因素敏感性分析法对地表水源热泵系统的LCC进行了分析,寻求得到了敏感性最强的因素即电价和初投资,并得到了决策时这两个因素的变动对决策结果的影响度。
论文最后以重庆市某实际地表水源热泵工程为例,根据该项目取水工程回水的用途,按取水能耗的计算方式和传统空调系统进行了对比分析;并利用该工程地表水源热泵系统夏季运行情况的实测数据,对该地表水源热泵系统LCC进行估算,并与LCC理论计算值进行了对比分析。
本文将全寿命周期成本理论引入到地表水源热泵系统中,分析了影响LCC值的各种影响因素,并对各种因素影响条件下的LCC值进行了定量分析。以权衡分析等方法为基础建立了一套可行的LCC计算流程以及地表水源热泵系统的评价比较方法,能够为有序推广地表水源热泵系统的发展奠定一定的经济理论基础。
The surface water heat pump technology has been increasingly applied in China. However, the promotion of this technology also faces the difficulty of technology economy optimizing. The present construction party mainly concerns about the one-time investment but not much about reclaiming the operating cost. On the other hand, the varieties of factors which may influence the surface water heat pump system also influence the assessment of the later stage operating cost. See from the external environment, with universal rise of the energy price as well as the severity of the environmental problems, the high energy consumption make people obliged to consider the life cycle cost theory. The life cycle cost analysis leads the decision maker and designers to consider the capital costs and operating cost of air-conditioning system consciously and comprehensively. In the decision stage of the scheme, they can choose the best plan according to the principle of minimal LCC. This paper will apply the idea of LCC to analyze and evaluate the surface water heat pump system as well as analyze the critical factor influencing its costs.
The theory of LCC to the surface water heat pump system will be introduced to analyze the constitutional system of its LCC and the formula of calculating LCC will be provided. Besides, this paper will do qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors such as discount rate, life cycle and rate of inflation which may influence the LCC. Furthermore, this paper will set the conventional air-conditioning system as the reference object. By applying the balance analytical process to initial cost and operating cost of the constitutional system of the surface water heat pump system, two conclusions will be reached: one is the limit value of its operating cost under different conditions, the other is the limit value of its initial cost with respect to the conventional air-conditioning system.
Through analyzing the annual air-conditioning dynamic load of three typical public buildings—office building, emporium and hotel in Chongqing by applying the DOE energy analytical software on the basis of the cooling load time frequency gained through simulation, the method of calculating the annual operating power consumption of the system will be established by using the energy consumption model of surface water heat pump system.
Through calculating the LCC of the three typical public buildings—office building, emporium and hotel in Chongqing respectively by applying the surface water heat pump system on the basis of the rated conditions of the specific heat pump unit, doing comparative analysis by using conventional air-conditioning system as a reference object, analyzing the influence of the water intake temperature, the water intake way and the pump’s operating mode of the surface water heat pump system on LCC, following conclusions are reached: the water intake in summer will have more obvious influence on LCC than intake in winter, and in a specific water intake temperature its LCC value is higher than the conventional air-conditioning system in the whole life cycle through it can save more energy than the conventional air-conditioning system in a specific operation condition; by setting infiltration water intake method as an example and different investment cost scheme as research object, and through quantitative analysis this paper reaches an conclusion that a proper water intake temperature and controlling the initial cost of water intake system can make a proper life cycle cost; the paper will also analyze the effect of the frequency conversion and steady frequency operation of the water-intake pump on the annual operating energy consumption of the surface water heat pump system, the extent of its influence on LCC will also be gained.
The sensitivity analysis will be introduced on account of the uncertainty factors in LCC analysis and through analyzing the LCC of the surface water heat pump system by applying the method of the single factor sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive factor—electricity price and initial cost will be gained as well as the extent of influence of the variation of these two factor on the result of decision when making decision.
At last, the paper set a practical surface water heat pump project as an example and make a comparative analysis to the conventional air-conditioning system by using the calculating method of water intake based on the purpose of the reclaimed water of the water intake project; Besides, the paper evaluate the LCC of its surface water heat pump system by making use of the actual data of its operating condition in summer and make a comparative analysis to the theoretical calculation value.
The paper introduce the theory of LCC to the surface water heat pump system to analyze variety of factors which may influence the value of LCC and do quantitative analysis of the LCC value under different conditions influenced by each factor. In addition, this paper will establish a set of feasible LCC calculating process, and evaluating and analyzing method of the surface water heat pump system based on the balance analysis methodology. All these will make a foundation of economic theory to gradually promote the development of the surface water heat pump system.
引文
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