摘要
国民经济由多个部门构成,部门之间存在着密切的投入产出联系,而经济所受到的冲击大多数并不是同时均匀的作用于各个部门,而是首先作用于某个或某几个部门,再通过投入产出关系逐渐传导到国民经济的各个部门,并最终影响总产出。因此研究不同部门受到冲击时对其他部门产出和总产出的影响有什么不同,对更准确预测经济从而为经济政策的制定提供依据有着重要的现实意义。
本文在Long和Plosser建立的仅有中间投入和劳动投入作为生产投入的多部门RBC模型基础上,进一步引入资本建立了7部门DSGE模型,并利用中国投入产出数据所校准的参数进行了数值模拟,通过对模拟结果的观察发现,外生冲击沿部门传导是通过推动作用、拉动作用和替代作用三种作用机制共同作用于实际经济,推动作用和拉动作用是一个部门产出上升后带动其他部门产出上升的作用机制,而替代作用则可能导致其他部门产出下降。一个部门受到外生冲击对各部门产出的影响是推动作用、拉动作用和替代作用三种机制共同作用的结果。传统的投入产出分析由于只考虑了部门间的推动和拉动作用而有一定的局限性。而只有引入了微观经济主体一生效用最大化的DSGE模型分析框架才能够较好的刻画替代作用机制。
文章进一步建立了引入制造业资本与建筑业和房地产业资本不可替代、劳动投入不完全替代、并同时包含了部门冲击和整体冲击的7部门DSGE模型,这一模型更好的模拟了现实经济,为模拟冲击对经济的影响提供了一个实验平台。通过对比部门冲击和整体冲击对各部门产出的影响,发现经济波动中观察到的各部门产出呈现出共动性特点的一个主要原因是整体冲击的作用。
本文得到的政策建议主要包括,在制定产业刺激政策,或者预测某个部门冲击的经济影响时,需要考虑到替代作用机制;部门冲击与整体冲击对各部门产出的经济影响不同,进行经济预测时需要准确判断外生冲击的性质;此外,制造业受到1单位外生冲击时,对各部门产出和总产出的影响最大,在一定程度上说明了在经济萧条时期,政府通过刺激制造业的经济刺激政策会对整体经济有较大的拉动作用。
The economy is consistent of multiple sectors, and these sectors are connected byinput-output relationships. Shocks are usually the cause of business cycles, which inmany cases are sectoral shocks, not the aggregate shock. So study the effects of thesectoral shocks on sectoral output and overall output are very important to understandthe business cycle, and make economic policies.
This paper have introduced Long and Plosser’s model as a basic model, and thenintroduced capital into the basic model. Then the paper do some simulations usingChinese parameters calibrated from the Chinese input-output table. The simulationresults indicate that there are three transmission mechanisms of sectoral shock: pushingeffect, pulling effect and substituting effect. The first two effects will increase theoutput of each sector under positive sectoral shock, but the last effect may not. Thesuperiority of the DSGE model is that this model can reveal the substituting effect butothers cannot.
This paper have further established several7-sector DSGE models with theconstruction’s capital and manufacturing’s capital have constant input ratio, sectors’labor inputs have imperfect substitution, and introduced aggregate shock. Simulationresults show that the comovement in the business cycle is probably the result of theaggregate shock. These models better reflex the real economy, and offer a platform todo further economic experiments.
From the simulation results, we conclude that when making industrial policies, thepolicy makers should consider not only pushing effect and pulling effect, but alsoconsider substituting effect. Furthermore, the policy makers should distinguish sectoralshock from aggregate shock as the effects is different. We can also see thatmanufacturing sector’s positive exogenous shock will stimulate the economy most.
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