基于环境风险的化工企业安全防护距离的确定
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摘要
石油化工企业的生产、储运和控制过程所涉及的原料和产品多属易燃易爆和有毒有害化学物质,一旦发生泄漏事故后果不堪设想。近年来城市化的迅猛发展,令当年规划较为合理的化工企业逐渐成为了显性障碍和隐形风险。世界环境史上发生的几起重大环境污染事件表明,未能与周边敏感区域保持一定的安全防护距离是导致事故后果扩大化的直接原因之一。然而,国内迄今为止尚无危险化学品安全防护距离的确定方法及相关标准。因此,如何科学合理的确定化工企业安全防护距离,从源头上预防重大事故的发生、减轻事故后果的严重性,是当前亟待解决的一个重要课题。
针对以上问题,本文对西太平洋石化有限公司150×104t/a加氢裂化装置及其配套项目进行重大风险源识别及特定气象条件下的最大可信事故情景模拟,同时以毒理学和二重积分的相关理论为基础,确定该事故下的安全防护距离,最后给出减少安全距离或增大等效距离的几点建议。本文具体研究内容和成果包括以下几个部分：
(1)总结了目前国内外针对安全防护距离研究的几种方法及其研究进展,概述了环境风险评价的相关概念及评价内容。
(2)简单介绍危险化学品的泄漏和蒸发及扩散模式,比较并确定本文选取SLABView模型进行最大可信事故的大气扩散模拟。
(3)详细阐述本文所研究的基于风险分析的安全防护距离的确定方法,给出该方法的技术路线,包括风险数据整合,人体健康损害曲线的确定,函数运算三个步骤。
(4)以大连西太平洋石化有限公司150×104t/a加氢裂化装置及其配套项目为研究案例,选取最易形成局部污染并对该区域人口造成毒性危害的气象条件,对选定的风险评价因子运用SLAB View软件预测其下风向扩散曲线及危害范围,并结合当地人口密度和该企业泄漏事故的发生概率,通过比较三种不同形式的函数拟合,最终得到安全防护距离值。
本文研究的方法克服了现实中确定安全防护距离的方法存在单一假设的缺陷,对城市化的发展和环境安全规划具有一定的参考意义。
The raw material and products of production, storage and some controlled processes in the petroleum chemical industry are flammable, explosive and poisonous chemical substances. Once the leakage accident happens the consequence will be disastrous. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization, the chemical industry which has a reasonable planning has become hidden risks. The major environmental pollution events in world environment history show that, failure to maintain a certain distance with the peripheral sensitive region is one of the immediate causes, leading to the accident consequences magnified. However, there is no determination method and related standard on hazardous chemical safe distance in our country. So how to get a scientific and reasonable method to prevent the occurrence of heavy accidents and reduce the seriousness of consequences from the source, is an important topic urgently to be solved currently.
Aiming at the above Problems, the environment risk accident under the specific meteorological condition was forecasted in this paper through the case analysis of 1.5 million hydrocracking project in the West Pacific Ocean petrochemical enterprise, and meanwhile theories of toxicology and double integral were taken as the theoretical principle and the method of safe distance and some suggestions were put forward at the end of the paper. The chief contents and conclusions are as followed:
(1) The several methods on safe distance determination and the development course and recent advance were discussed. The related concepts and assessment content were also outlined.
(2) The leakage, evaporation and diffusion model were introduced briefly. By comparing different models, Slab View was fixed up on as the optimal one in this paper.
(3) The method on safe distance determination based on risk analysis and technology map were elaborated in chapter 4.
(4) With the case analysis of 1.5 million hydrocracking project in the West Pacific Ocean petrochemical enterprise, the weather conditions which most likely caused local pollution and toxicity hazard in this region were chosen and SLAB View was used to predict the downwind diffusion curve and damaging range. Combined with the local population density and the leakage accident probability, three different forms of function fitting were compared and finally the safe distances was achieved.
The method could overcome the defect of single supposition in safe distance in reality, and the results of the study could provide guidance for the development of urbanization, as well as, the environment and safety planning for poisonous gaseous leakage.
针对以上问题,本文对西太平洋石化有限公司150×104t/a加氢裂化装置及其配套项目进行重大风险源识别及特定气象条件下的最大可信事故情景模拟,同时以毒理学和二重积分的相关理论为基础,确定该事故下的安全防护距离,最后给出减少安全距离或增大等效距离的几点建议。本文具体研究内容和成果包括以下几个部分：
(1)总结了目前国内外针对安全防护距离研究的几种方法及其研究进展,概述了环境风险评价的相关概念及评价内容。
(2)简单介绍危险化学品的泄漏和蒸发及扩散模式,比较并确定本文选取SLABView模型进行最大可信事故的大气扩散模拟。
(3)详细阐述本文所研究的基于风险分析的安全防护距离的确定方法,给出该方法的技术路线,包括风险数据整合,人体健康损害曲线的确定,函数运算三个步骤。
(4)以大连西太平洋石化有限公司150×104t/a加氢裂化装置及其配套项目为研究案例,选取最易形成局部污染并对该区域人口造成毒性危害的气象条件,对选定的风险评价因子运用SLAB View软件预测其下风向扩散曲线及危害范围,并结合当地人口密度和该企业泄漏事故的发生概率,通过比较三种不同形式的函数拟合,最终得到安全防护距离值。
本文研究的方法克服了现实中确定安全防护距离的方法存在单一假设的缺陷,对城市化的发展和环境安全规划具有一定的参考意义。
The raw material and products of production, storage and some controlled processes in the petroleum chemical industry are flammable, explosive and poisonous chemical substances. Once the leakage accident happens the consequence will be disastrous. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization, the chemical industry which has a reasonable planning has become hidden risks. The major environmental pollution events in world environment history show that, failure to maintain a certain distance with the peripheral sensitive region is one of the immediate causes, leading to the accident consequences magnified. However, there is no determination method and related standard on hazardous chemical safe distance in our country. So how to get a scientific and reasonable method to prevent the occurrence of heavy accidents and reduce the seriousness of consequences from the source, is an important topic urgently to be solved currently.
Aiming at the above Problems, the environment risk accident under the specific meteorological condition was forecasted in this paper through the case analysis of 1.5 million hydrocracking project in the West Pacific Ocean petrochemical enterprise, and meanwhile theories of toxicology and double integral were taken as the theoretical principle and the method of safe distance and some suggestions were put forward at the end of the paper. The chief contents and conclusions are as followed:
(1) The several methods on safe distance determination and the development course and recent advance were discussed. The related concepts and assessment content were also outlined.
(2) The leakage, evaporation and diffusion model were introduced briefly. By comparing different models, Slab View was fixed up on as the optimal one in this paper.
(3) The method on safe distance determination based on risk analysis and technology map were elaborated in chapter 4.
(4) With the case analysis of 1.5 million hydrocracking project in the West Pacific Ocean petrochemical enterprise, the weather conditions which most likely caused local pollution and toxicity hazard in this region were chosen and SLAB View was used to predict the downwind diffusion curve and damaging range. Combined with the local population density and the leakage accident probability, three different forms of function fitting were compared and finally the safe distances was achieved.
The method could overcome the defect of single supposition in safe distance in reality, and the results of the study could provide guidance for the development of urbanization, as well as, the environment and safety planning for poisonous gaseous leakage.
引文
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[3]国家安全生产监督管理局安全科学技术研究中心[R].“十五”国家科技攻关计划“城市公共安全规划技术、方法与程序研究”专题总结报告,2004.
[4]师立晨,高建明,吴斌.危险化学品企业外部安全防护距离标准制定探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010-6(6)：24-29.
[5]樊晶光,高娜,路念明等.我国危险化学品企业搬迁面临的问题及对策探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(3)：26-29.
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[7]B.J.M. Ale. Risk assessment practices in The Netherlands [J]. Safety Science 2002(40):105-126.
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[9]William Keller, Mohammad Modarres. A historical overview of probabilistic risk assessment development and its use in the nuclear power industry:a tribute to the late Professor Norman Carl Rasmussen [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2005(89):271-285.
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