基于实物期权的房地产企业投资组合价值的分析与风险控制研究
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摘要
分析价值是一切投资活动的依据和前提,投资价值分析即评估投资目标对象的内在价值,从某一个角度讲既是一门科学,也是一门艺术。它需要综合运用经济学、财务会计、投资学等方面的知识,也要求对企业经营管理、实际运作有深入的了解。实物资产投资价值分析应该是一个理论研究和实践应用相结合的过程。
中国房地产业日益发展的进程中,房地产投资是为有房地产权益可进行房地产抵押贷款为主要形式,其具有实物资产使用属性的长期投资,追求稳定的收益和资产保值增值的特性,实物资产评价需建立一套具科学系统、动态的价值评价技术和管理手段。
房地产投资与绝大多数实物资产投资决策一样,不同程度地具有三个基本特征:投资不可逆性,当环境或条件发生改变时,投资所形成的资产不能在不产生任何损失的前提下即时变现;房地产投资的未来收益是不确定的,这包括物业的租金收益的不确定性和物业价格动态变化的不确定性;房地产投资存在明显的时机选择性,在一定程度上存在一定时间范围内可以自由选择投资决策的余地。上述不可逆性、不确定性和延期决策的可能性是实物期权存在的基础,在未来不确定性条件下,投资选择权作为一种机会成本等同于期权价值,是资产价值的重要组成部分。基于房地产价格不确定性,从房地产投资决策和资产管理的灵活性出发,分别对房地产价值发现和资产结构优化两问题展开研究。论文的篇章结构由具体资产的价值发现深入到组合资产的结构优化和整体资产的动态配置;问题研究的前提是以完全市场下的不确定性条件为主,同时对重要的非完全市场因素进行修正。
文章共分七章。论文运用了相关理论对以房地产为代表的实物投资价值进行分析,并提出房地产投资项目风险控制的策略,以上饶市龙潭湖片区综合开发为实例进行研究。龙潭湖片区开发项目是开发建设中心区的一个重点项目:通过龙潭湖整治及湖边林地景观改造,配以园林式酒店,造以龙潭湖为核心,集旅游、居住为一体的自然生态林闲中心。项目方江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司拟和政府全资的城投公司合资成立项目公司;城投公司以政府土地入股,项目方:江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司因同时具有市政、房建总承包施工和房地产开发资质,其运用自有资本加私募基金投资的资本以基础设施,施工同体结合带资型的BT模式、外加现金和政府全资城投公司合资入股的系列组合投资方式,按市场方式运作土地出让,项目方江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司房地产投资的资本将得到混生系列组合投资的博弈收益。本文案例是一项很有创意的投资组合。显然,本项目研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。
Value analysis is the basis or premise of all investment activities. Investment value analysis, namely the appraisal of inner value of investment objects, is a branch of science and an art from some point of view. It needs to comprehensively utilize many aspects of knowledge such as economics, financial accounting and investment science etc. and have a comprehension of enterprise management and practical operation. Analysis of real asset investment value should be a process of unifying fundamental research with practice application.
With the flourish of Chinese real estate industry, the investment in real estates is carried out in the main form of real estate mortgage loan on the basis of the real estate rights and interests, which has characteristics of long-term investment, pursuing stable income and value maintenance and appreciation with the application property of real assets. The real asset appraisal must establish a set of science system, dynamic value appraisal technology and management measures.
The investment in real estates, as the most real assets investment, has three essential features: investment irreversibility, when environment or condition has changed, the investment property will not be promptly liquidated with the premise of producing no loss; The future income of the real estate investment is uncertain including the uncertainty of property rental income and dynamic change of property price. Real estate investment has obvious opportunity selectivity, which has a leeway for decision of free selection of investment to some extent and within some time extension. The above-mentioned irreversibility, the uncertainty and the possibility of decision-making extension are the foundation of real option existence; and under the condition of future uncertainty, investment option as a kind of opportunity cost is equal to option value, which is an important component of the property value. On the basis of uncertainty of real estate price, starting from the flexibility of investment decision of real estate and asset management, the paper carries out the research on two issues as value discovery of real estates and asset structure optimization. The chapter structure of the paper is organized from the value discovery of concrete property to the structure optimization of combination investment and the dynamic disposition of overall property. The premise of the research is the uncertainty as the principal conditions at the complete market, and simultaneously carrying on amendment to the important non-complete market factor.
The article is composed of seven chapters. By relevant theories, the paper carries on the analysis of real investment value with real estate as a representative and puts forward a strategy of risk control of investment project of real estate, taking the example of comprehensive development of Shangrao Longtan Lake Area. The developmental project of Longtan Lake Area is a key project in the central area of exploitation and construction: after the renovation of Longtan Lake and reconstruction of lakeside forest view, a natural leisure center of ecological forest integrating tourism with residence is constructed with garden-like hotels and Longtan Lake as the core spot. The project executor Jiangxi Jinyang Municipal Comprehensive Construction Co., Ltd is planning to establish a project company together with city investment company enjoying the complete government investment; city investment company becomes a shareholder with government's land; with the qualifications for general contract of municipal building construction and real estate development, the project executor Jiangxi Jinyang Municipal Comprehensive Construction Co., Ltd will receive game benefits from the complex series of investment portfolio after utilizes self capital and fund investment of private placement in the portfolio investment of infrastructure, inner construction in combination of BT mode with own capital, besides cash and shares bought by city investment company with government's full investment, and carries out land remising with the market approach. This case in the article is an original investment portfolio. Obviously, this project research has certain theory significance and practical value.
中国房地产业日益发展的进程中,房地产投资是为有房地产权益可进行房地产抵押贷款为主要形式,其具有实物资产使用属性的长期投资,追求稳定的收益和资产保值增值的特性,实物资产评价需建立一套具科学系统、动态的价值评价技术和管理手段。
房地产投资与绝大多数实物资产投资决策一样,不同程度地具有三个基本特征:投资不可逆性,当环境或条件发生改变时,投资所形成的资产不能在不产生任何损失的前提下即时变现;房地产投资的未来收益是不确定的,这包括物业的租金收益的不确定性和物业价格动态变化的不确定性;房地产投资存在明显的时机选择性,在一定程度上存在一定时间范围内可以自由选择投资决策的余地。上述不可逆性、不确定性和延期决策的可能性是实物期权存在的基础,在未来不确定性条件下,投资选择权作为一种机会成本等同于期权价值,是资产价值的重要组成部分。基于房地产价格不确定性,从房地产投资决策和资产管理的灵活性出发,分别对房地产价值发现和资产结构优化两问题展开研究。论文的篇章结构由具体资产的价值发现深入到组合资产的结构优化和整体资产的动态配置;问题研究的前提是以完全市场下的不确定性条件为主,同时对重要的非完全市场因素进行修正。
文章共分七章。论文运用了相关理论对以房地产为代表的实物投资价值进行分析,并提出房地产投资项目风险控制的策略,以上饶市龙潭湖片区综合开发为实例进行研究。龙潭湖片区开发项目是开发建设中心区的一个重点项目:通过龙潭湖整治及湖边林地景观改造,配以园林式酒店,造以龙潭湖为核心,集旅游、居住为一体的自然生态林闲中心。项目方江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司拟和政府全资的城投公司合资成立项目公司;城投公司以政府土地入股,项目方:江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司因同时具有市政、房建总承包施工和房地产开发资质,其运用自有资本加私募基金投资的资本以基础设施,施工同体结合带资型的BT模式、外加现金和政府全资城投公司合资入股的系列组合投资方式,按市场方式运作土地出让,项目方江西金阳市政综合建设有限公司房地产投资的资本将得到混生系列组合投资的博弈收益。本文案例是一项很有创意的投资组合。显然,本项目研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。
Value analysis is the basis or premise of all investment activities. Investment value analysis, namely the appraisal of inner value of investment objects, is a branch of science and an art from some point of view. It needs to comprehensively utilize many aspects of knowledge such as economics, financial accounting and investment science etc. and have a comprehension of enterprise management and practical operation. Analysis of real asset investment value should be a process of unifying fundamental research with practice application.
With the flourish of Chinese real estate industry, the investment in real estates is carried out in the main form of real estate mortgage loan on the basis of the real estate rights and interests, which has characteristics of long-term investment, pursuing stable income and value maintenance and appreciation with the application property of real assets. The real asset appraisal must establish a set of science system, dynamic value appraisal technology and management measures.
The investment in real estates, as the most real assets investment, has three essential features: investment irreversibility, when environment or condition has changed, the investment property will not be promptly liquidated with the premise of producing no loss; The future income of the real estate investment is uncertain including the uncertainty of property rental income and dynamic change of property price. Real estate investment has obvious opportunity selectivity, which has a leeway for decision of free selection of investment to some extent and within some time extension. The above-mentioned irreversibility, the uncertainty and the possibility of decision-making extension are the foundation of real option existence; and under the condition of future uncertainty, investment option as a kind of opportunity cost is equal to option value, which is an important component of the property value. On the basis of uncertainty of real estate price, starting from the flexibility of investment decision of real estate and asset management, the paper carries out the research on two issues as value discovery of real estates and asset structure optimization. The chapter structure of the paper is organized from the value discovery of concrete property to the structure optimization of combination investment and the dynamic disposition of overall property. The premise of the research is the uncertainty as the principal conditions at the complete market, and simultaneously carrying on amendment to the important non-complete market factor.
The article is composed of seven chapters. By relevant theories, the paper carries on the analysis of real investment value with real estate as a representative and puts forward a strategy of risk control of investment project of real estate, taking the example of comprehensive development of Shangrao Longtan Lake Area. The developmental project of Longtan Lake Area is a key project in the central area of exploitation and construction: after the renovation of Longtan Lake and reconstruction of lakeside forest view, a natural leisure center of ecological forest integrating tourism with residence is constructed with garden-like hotels and Longtan Lake as the core spot. The project executor Jiangxi Jinyang Municipal Comprehensive Construction Co., Ltd is planning to establish a project company together with city investment company enjoying the complete government investment; city investment company becomes a shareholder with government's land; with the qualifications for general contract of municipal building construction and real estate development, the project executor Jiangxi Jinyang Municipal Comprehensive Construction Co., Ltd will receive game benefits from the complex series of investment portfolio after utilizes self capital and fund investment of private placement in the portfolio investment of infrastructure, inner construction in combination of BT mode with own capital, besides cash and shares bought by city investment company with government's full investment, and carries out land remising with the market approach. This case in the article is an original investment portfolio. Obviously, this project research has certain theory significance and practical value.
引文
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