基于负荷预测的配电网络重构
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摘要
配电网络重构是提高电网运行的经济性、供电质量和安全性的重要手段。通过配电网络重构一方面可降低网损,改善电压质量;另一方面可以平衡系统负荷,使负荷在各个馈线和变压器之间合理分配,可以避免线路和变压器过载,改善系统的运行条件,提高系统运行的安全性。
配电网络重构主要有两个研究方向,一是配电网络实时重构,即根据电力负荷实时改变配电网络结构。如果配电网络实时重构依据的是实时上传的负荷数据,由于数据的获取与传输、程序的运行及远动设备的动作都需要花费时间,这就使得程序运行所获得配电网络重构的结果是针对获取数据那一时刻,而并非是针对当前的运行状态。二是按时间段进行配电网络重构,即按小时、日、周、月等进行配电网络重构。如果按时间段进行的配电网络重构依据的是已经上传的负荷数据,则配电网络重构的结果是针对历史的某一时间段,而并非是针对未来的某一时间段。因此,基于已上传的负荷数据进行配电网络重构,将影响配电网络重构的现实意义。
近年来负荷预测技术已趋于成熟,预测的精度和速度都有很大的提高。本文尝试着先对电力负荷进行预测,然后根据负荷预测数据进行配电网络重构,这样便可以预测未来某一时刻或某一时间段配电网络的最优运行结构。由于是对配电网络最优运行结构预判,可以降低对计算速度的要求,重构的结果可以作为计划部门和调度部门制定运行方式和调度的参考。电力负荷预测采用了遗传程序设计算法,并在负荷预测前对样本数据进行预处理,在预测的过程中对工作日和周末进行分类预测。配电网络重构采用了单亲遗传算法,并针对配电网络重构的特点对单亲遗传算法进行了改进。
本文针对配电网络的特点,提出适于程序设计解决环网问题、孤岛问题的实用的方法,给出实际程序设计中所遇到的负荷转移问题的实用解决方案。并给出基于GIS数据库的配电网络的拓扑搜索方法。
本文采用SQL Server 2000作为数据库管理系统,以Visual Studio.NET作为开发平台,采用可视化高级编程语言VC#.NET开发了基于负荷预测的配电网络重构系统。配电网络重构的结果可以通过GIS、主接线图进行图形显示。
Distribution network reconfiguration is an important method that can improve the economy of power system running, power supply quality and power supply safety. It not only can reduce the network loss, improve voltage quality but also can balance load of power system making the distribution of load among the feeders and transformers more reasonable, void lines and transformers overload. It can improve the operating condition and operating safety.
There are two main research directions of distribution network reconfiguration. One is distribution network real time reconfiguration that changes the configuration of distribution network according to the power load all the time. If the reconfiguration is according to power load data uploaded, the result of the reconfiguration of distribution network is according to historical conditions of the distribution network not the present running conditions because the obtaining and transmission of data, program running and action of remote device need time. So the result of distribution network reconfiguration got by the program is according to the running conditions of the time that the data got. The other is distribution network reconfiguration of time segment that reconfigures the distribution network hourly, daily or monthly etc. And if it is according the power load uploaded, the result of distribution network reconfiguration is for the historical time segment. All in a word, the distribution network reconfiguration based on power load uploaded will affect the realistic significance of reconfiguration.
In recent years, load forecasting technology has become mature, the forecast accuracy and speed are greatly improved. This article attempts to forecast the power load first, then reconfigure the distribution network based on the load forecasting data, so that we can predict the optimal operation structure of distribution network at a certain time or a time segment. The optimal operation structure of distribution network can be pre-judged. So the making of operation mode and the dispatching can refer to the result of the reconfiguration. The requirements of computing speed can also be lowered. The genetic programming algorithm was used in power load forecasting, and the sample data was pretreated before forecasting in this paper. The power load of working days and weekends was forecasted separately. The distribution network reconfiguration adopted partheno-genetic algorithm (PGA) and it was improved according to the characteristics of distribution network reconfiguration.
The useful methods that resolve circle network and isolated island was presented problem. And it is applicable for program design. The solution for load transfer problem was given which met during the program design. The approach for the search of distribution network based on GIS database was also given.
SQL Server 2000 was adopted as database management system. Visual Studio.NET was taken as development platform. The distribution network reconfiguration based on load forecasting was developed. The programming language adopted VC#.NET which is advanced and object-oriented. The result of distribution network reconfiguration can be displayed by the GIS or by main wiring graph.
配电网络重构主要有两个研究方向,一是配电网络实时重构,即根据电力负荷实时改变配电网络结构。如果配电网络实时重构依据的是实时上传的负荷数据,由于数据的获取与传输、程序的运行及远动设备的动作都需要花费时间,这就使得程序运行所获得配电网络重构的结果是针对获取数据那一时刻,而并非是针对当前的运行状态。二是按时间段进行配电网络重构,即按小时、日、周、月等进行配电网络重构。如果按时间段进行的配电网络重构依据的是已经上传的负荷数据,则配电网络重构的结果是针对历史的某一时间段,而并非是针对未来的某一时间段。因此,基于已上传的负荷数据进行配电网络重构,将影响配电网络重构的现实意义。
近年来负荷预测技术已趋于成熟,预测的精度和速度都有很大的提高。本文尝试着先对电力负荷进行预测,然后根据负荷预测数据进行配电网络重构,这样便可以预测未来某一时刻或某一时间段配电网络的最优运行结构。由于是对配电网络最优运行结构预判,可以降低对计算速度的要求,重构的结果可以作为计划部门和调度部门制定运行方式和调度的参考。电力负荷预测采用了遗传程序设计算法,并在负荷预测前对样本数据进行预处理,在预测的过程中对工作日和周末进行分类预测。配电网络重构采用了单亲遗传算法,并针对配电网络重构的特点对单亲遗传算法进行了改进。
本文针对配电网络的特点,提出适于程序设计解决环网问题、孤岛问题的实用的方法,给出实际程序设计中所遇到的负荷转移问题的实用解决方案。并给出基于GIS数据库的配电网络的拓扑搜索方法。
本文采用SQL Server 2000作为数据库管理系统,以Visual Studio.NET作为开发平台,采用可视化高级编程语言VC#.NET开发了基于负荷预测的配电网络重构系统。配电网络重构的结果可以通过GIS、主接线图进行图形显示。
Distribution network reconfiguration is an important method that can improve the economy of power system running, power supply quality and power supply safety. It not only can reduce the network loss, improve voltage quality but also can balance load of power system making the distribution of load among the feeders and transformers more reasonable, void lines and transformers overload. It can improve the operating condition and operating safety.
There are two main research directions of distribution network reconfiguration. One is distribution network real time reconfiguration that changes the configuration of distribution network according to the power load all the time. If the reconfiguration is according to power load data uploaded, the result of the reconfiguration of distribution network is according to historical conditions of the distribution network not the present running conditions because the obtaining and transmission of data, program running and action of remote device need time. So the result of distribution network reconfiguration got by the program is according to the running conditions of the time that the data got. The other is distribution network reconfiguration of time segment that reconfigures the distribution network hourly, daily or monthly etc. And if it is according the power load uploaded, the result of distribution network reconfiguration is for the historical time segment. All in a word, the distribution network reconfiguration based on power load uploaded will affect the realistic significance of reconfiguration.
In recent years, load forecasting technology has become mature, the forecast accuracy and speed are greatly improved. This article attempts to forecast the power load first, then reconfigure the distribution network based on the load forecasting data, so that we can predict the optimal operation structure of distribution network at a certain time or a time segment. The optimal operation structure of distribution network can be pre-judged. So the making of operation mode and the dispatching can refer to the result of the reconfiguration. The requirements of computing speed can also be lowered. The genetic programming algorithm was used in power load forecasting, and the sample data was pretreated before forecasting in this paper. The power load of working days and weekends was forecasted separately. The distribution network reconfiguration adopted partheno-genetic algorithm (PGA) and it was improved according to the characteristics of distribution network reconfiguration.
The useful methods that resolve circle network and isolated island was presented problem. And it is applicable for program design. The solution for load transfer problem was given which met during the program design. The approach for the search of distribution network based on GIS database was also given.
SQL Server 2000 was adopted as database management system. Visual Studio.NET was taken as development platform. The distribution network reconfiguration based on load forecasting was developed. The programming language adopted VC#.NET which is advanced and object-oriented. The result of distribution network reconfiguration can be displayed by the GIS or by main wiring graph.
引文
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