重庆市生态系统服务价值动态变化与预测研究
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摘要
生态系统服务是生态系统对人类生存和生活质量所贡献的产品和服务,是人类生存和发展的基本条件。自20世纪50年代以后,全球人口持续增长,消费增加,加上人们过分片面追求经济效益所带来的负面影响,全球环境严重恶化、水土流失严重、酸雨、温室效应等环境恶化所带来的一系列负面影响开始凸现出来,使人类的可持续发展受到影响,如何解决这一环境问题、如何改进生态环境成为当下环境学研究的热点问题。针对这一系列生态问题,全球开始了对于生态系统服务价值的研究,而且近年来对于生态系统服务价值的研究越来越受到重视。
重庆市地处四川盆地核心腹地,是长江上游最大的经济中心、西南工商业重镇和水陆交通枢纽。随着经济的发展和城市化进程的加快,重庆市这几年的环境问题突出,加之酸雨、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害频发、以及三峡工程的实施使得重庆市的生态环境形势不容乐观。
本文应用Costanza、以及谢高地等确定的生态系统服务单位价值系数,以重庆市1997-2009年的土地利用类型以及面积为基础数据,应用Costanza等的生态系统服务价值公式,计算了重庆市1997-2009年的生态系统服务价值;并运用灰色预测模型测算了重庆市未来六年的生态系统服务价值,为重庆市的生态环境恢复和保护以及经济的可持续发展提供参考。
研究表明:在1997-2009年间重庆市的土地利用类型发生了明显变化,林地面积持续增加,尤其是2002年以后增长速度加快,这13年间林地总共增加了29.03万公顷;耕地面积出现减少趋势,尤其是2002年以后减少的速度加快,这与国家实施的退耕还林以及重庆市“森林重庆”的提出和实施有关,林地面积的增加抵消了耕地的面积增长;草地在这13年间的增长幅度不明显,只增加了2.12万公顷,变化不大;未利用地的面积减少幅度很快,尤其是2001年以后重庆市城市化进程加快,越来越多的未利用地被开发利用,13年间大约减少了80.5万公顷,减少的量最大;建设用地的面积在增加;园地面积无显著变化;水域的面积也呈现增加趋势,但是增长幅度不明显。
在1997-2009年应用两种不同的单位价值系数计算得出的生态系统服务价值总量总体上全部呈上升趋势,生态系统服务价值与GDP比值呈现下降的趋势。应用两种不同的价值系数计算得出的生态系统服务价值差异较大,但总体趋势显示重庆市生态价值呈现增长趋势。不同的计算方法同时反映了生态系统服务价值对于土地利用变化的影响;单独来看各生态系统服务价值,林地的生态系统服务价值增长较快,出现持续增长的趋势;耕地的生态系统服务价值在下降;草地、水域以及园地的生态系统服务价值也在呈现增加的趋势。
1997-2009年各服务功能价值量总体上呈现持续增长的趋势,应用谢高地价值系数中可以看出:气候调节、水源涵养、土壤形成与保护、气体调节、生物多样性、原材料、娱乐文化、废物处理呈现持续增加的趋势,食物生产是唯一一个出现持续减少趋势的服务功能。应用Costanza价值系数可以看出:在这17种类型中养分循环所提供的生态系统价值最高,这与养分循环的主要提供者森林面积增长较快相关,其次为水分调节、原材料等。
灰色预测模型估算结果表明,重庆市未来六年的生态系统服务价值呈现增长的趋势。
Ecosystem services are ecosystem of products and services contribute to human survival and quality of life. Ecosystem services are essential to human survival and development. After the 50ths of the 20th century, global population continues to increase; consumption continues to grow, coupled with one-sided pursuit of economic benefits. Series deterioration of the environment such as the global environmental deterioration, serious soil erosion, acid rain, greenhouse effect caused by began to stand out, affect the sustainable development of human, how to solve this environmental problem and improve the ecological environment are become the hot topics of current environmental study .Faced with this series of ecological problems, the world began to research The value of ecosystem services ,and in recent years, more attention are paid to the research of ecosystem services value .
Chongqing is located in the heart of Sichuan Basin, is the largest economic center of Yangtze River, southwest industrial and commercial city and surface transport hub. With the economic development and accelerated urbanization process, in recent years, Chongqing is flooded with prominent environmental issues, combined with rain, mudslides, landslides and other secondary disasters, and the implementation of the Three Gorges Project, ecological situation is not optimistic in Chongqing.
This paper use Costanza and Xie Gaodi determined the units value coefficient of ecosystem services, land use type and area-based data of Chongqing in 1997-2009, calculated value of ecosystem services of Chongqing in 1997-2009 by Costanza formula, give the reference the restoration and protection of ecological environment of Chongqing and sustainable economic development.
The results show that: in 1997-2009, the land use type of Chongqing had Significant change, forest area continues to increase, particularly growth accelerated after 2002, these 13 years, forest land increased by 290,300 hectares in total; cultivatedarea appears to decrease. Especially ,after 2002 the rate of reduction accelerated , which is related with the implementation of the proposal the national implementation of the Forest and“forests Chongqing”, the increase in forest area offset the growth cultivated land area ; In 13 years the growth rate of the grass is not obvious,only increase 2.12 million hectares; the area of unused land decreased , especially after 2001 , urbanization of Chongqing , more and more development and utilizatio n of unused land is reduced , approximately 80.5 million hectares, the largest reduction; construction land area is increasing; garden area changed little; water area also showed an increasing trend but the growth is not obvious.
The results show that: in 1997-2009, the land use type of Chongqing had significant change, forest area continues to increase, particularly growth accelerated after 2002, these 13 years, forest land increased by 290,300 hectares in total; cultivated area appears to decrease. Especially ,after 2002 the rate of reduction accelerated , which is related with the implementation of the proposal the national implementation of the Forest and "forests Chongqing " , the increase in forest area offset the growth cultivated land area ; In 13 years the growth rate of the grass is not obvious,only increase 2.12 million hectares; the area of unused land decreased , especially after 2001 , urbanization of Chongqing , more and more development and utilization of unused land is reduced , approximately 80.5 million hectares, the largest reduction; construction land area is increasing; garden area changed little; water area also showed an increasing trend but the growth is not obvious.
In 1997-2009 we calculated the total value of ecosystem services in two different units of value coefficients, all of them rise in general; the ratio of ecosystem services value and GDP showed a downward trend. Application of three different coefficients calculated the value of ecosystem service value quite different, but the overall trend shows that the ecological value of Chongqing, showing growth trends, the three different methods reflect the impact of the value of ecosystem services and land use change; view the value of ecosystem services in a single way, the value of forest ecosystem services grew rapidly, a trend of sustained growth; value of land ecosystem services is declining; , and value of grass, water and garden ecosystem services also showed an increasing trend .
In 1997-2009 services value showed a sustained growth trend, use the value coefficients of Xie Gaodi: climate regulation, water conservation, soil formation and protection, gas regulation, biodiversity, raw materials, entertainment culture, waste Treatment continued to show an increasing trend, from 2002-2009, the curvature of the line changed greatly, which shows a greater change in the magnitude of value, increased by 471 million yuan, 6.28 billion yuan, 653 million yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 6.3 billion Yuan, 5.69 billion yuan, 286 million yuan, 4.18 billion yuan respectively; only food production showed sustained reduced trend. value coefficients of Costanza showed: the 17 types, nutrient cycling provides the highest value in the ecosystem, which is related with rapid growth forest area, followed by water regulation, and raw materials.
GM prediction model demonstrate that value of ecosystem services in Chongqing will show growing trends in the next six years.
重庆市地处四川盆地核心腹地,是长江上游最大的经济中心、西南工商业重镇和水陆交通枢纽。随着经济的发展和城市化进程的加快,重庆市这几年的环境问题突出,加之酸雨、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害频发、以及三峡工程的实施使得重庆市的生态环境形势不容乐观。
本文应用Costanza、以及谢高地等确定的生态系统服务单位价值系数,以重庆市1997-2009年的土地利用类型以及面积为基础数据,应用Costanza等的生态系统服务价值公式,计算了重庆市1997-2009年的生态系统服务价值;并运用灰色预测模型测算了重庆市未来六年的生态系统服务价值,为重庆市的生态环境恢复和保护以及经济的可持续发展提供参考。
研究表明:在1997-2009年间重庆市的土地利用类型发生了明显变化,林地面积持续增加,尤其是2002年以后增长速度加快,这13年间林地总共增加了29.03万公顷;耕地面积出现减少趋势,尤其是2002年以后减少的速度加快,这与国家实施的退耕还林以及重庆市“森林重庆”的提出和实施有关,林地面积的增加抵消了耕地的面积增长;草地在这13年间的增长幅度不明显,只增加了2.12万公顷,变化不大;未利用地的面积减少幅度很快,尤其是2001年以后重庆市城市化进程加快,越来越多的未利用地被开发利用,13年间大约减少了80.5万公顷,减少的量最大;建设用地的面积在增加;园地面积无显著变化;水域的面积也呈现增加趋势,但是增长幅度不明显。
在1997-2009年应用两种不同的单位价值系数计算得出的生态系统服务价值总量总体上全部呈上升趋势,生态系统服务价值与GDP比值呈现下降的趋势。应用两种不同的价值系数计算得出的生态系统服务价值差异较大,但总体趋势显示重庆市生态价值呈现增长趋势。不同的计算方法同时反映了生态系统服务价值对于土地利用变化的影响;单独来看各生态系统服务价值,林地的生态系统服务价值增长较快,出现持续增长的趋势;耕地的生态系统服务价值在下降;草地、水域以及园地的生态系统服务价值也在呈现增加的趋势。
1997-2009年各服务功能价值量总体上呈现持续增长的趋势,应用谢高地价值系数中可以看出:气候调节、水源涵养、土壤形成与保护、气体调节、生物多样性、原材料、娱乐文化、废物处理呈现持续增加的趋势,食物生产是唯一一个出现持续减少趋势的服务功能。应用Costanza价值系数可以看出:在这17种类型中养分循环所提供的生态系统价值最高,这与养分循环的主要提供者森林面积增长较快相关,其次为水分调节、原材料等。
灰色预测模型估算结果表明,重庆市未来六年的生态系统服务价值呈现增长的趋势。
Ecosystem services are ecosystem of products and services contribute to human survival and quality of life. Ecosystem services are essential to human survival and development. After the 50ths of the 20th century, global population continues to increase; consumption continues to grow, coupled with one-sided pursuit of economic benefits. Series deterioration of the environment such as the global environmental deterioration, serious soil erosion, acid rain, greenhouse effect caused by began to stand out, affect the sustainable development of human, how to solve this environmental problem and improve the ecological environment are become the hot topics of current environmental study .Faced with this series of ecological problems, the world began to research The value of ecosystem services ,and in recent years, more attention are paid to the research of ecosystem services value .
Chongqing is located in the heart of Sichuan Basin, is the largest economic center of Yangtze River, southwest industrial and commercial city and surface transport hub. With the economic development and accelerated urbanization process, in recent years, Chongqing is flooded with prominent environmental issues, combined with rain, mudslides, landslides and other secondary disasters, and the implementation of the Three Gorges Project, ecological situation is not optimistic in Chongqing.
This paper use Costanza and Xie Gaodi determined the units value coefficient of ecosystem services, land use type and area-based data of Chongqing in 1997-2009, calculated value of ecosystem services of Chongqing in 1997-2009 by Costanza formula, give the reference the restoration and protection of ecological environment of Chongqing and sustainable economic development.
The results show that: in 1997-2009, the land use type of Chongqing had Significant change, forest area continues to increase, particularly growth accelerated after 2002, these 13 years, forest land increased by 290,300 hectares in total; cultivatedarea appears to decrease. Especially ,after 2002 the rate of reduction accelerated , which is related with the implementation of the proposal the national implementation of the Forest and“forests Chongqing”, the increase in forest area offset the growth cultivated land area ; In 13 years the growth rate of the grass is not obvious,only increase 2.12 million hectares; the area of unused land decreased , especially after 2001 , urbanization of Chongqing , more and more development and utilizatio n of unused land is reduced , approximately 80.5 million hectares, the largest reduction; construction land area is increasing; garden area changed little; water area also showed an increasing trend but the growth is not obvious.
The results show that: in 1997-2009, the land use type of Chongqing had significant change, forest area continues to increase, particularly growth accelerated after 2002, these 13 years, forest land increased by 290,300 hectares in total; cultivated area appears to decrease. Especially ,after 2002 the rate of reduction accelerated , which is related with the implementation of the proposal the national implementation of the Forest and "forests Chongqing " , the increase in forest area offset the growth cultivated land area ; In 13 years the growth rate of the grass is not obvious,only increase 2.12 million hectares; the area of unused land decreased , especially after 2001 , urbanization of Chongqing , more and more development and utilization of unused land is reduced , approximately 80.5 million hectares, the largest reduction; construction land area is increasing; garden area changed little; water area also showed an increasing trend but the growth is not obvious.
In 1997-2009 we calculated the total value of ecosystem services in two different units of value coefficients, all of them rise in general; the ratio of ecosystem services value and GDP showed a downward trend. Application of three different coefficients calculated the value of ecosystem service value quite different, but the overall trend shows that the ecological value of Chongqing, showing growth trends, the three different methods reflect the impact of the value of ecosystem services and land use change; view the value of ecosystem services in a single way, the value of forest ecosystem services grew rapidly, a trend of sustained growth; value of land ecosystem services is declining; , and value of grass, water and garden ecosystem services also showed an increasing trend .
In 1997-2009 services value showed a sustained growth trend, use the value coefficients of Xie Gaodi: climate regulation, water conservation, soil formation and protection, gas regulation, biodiversity, raw materials, entertainment culture, waste Treatment continued to show an increasing trend, from 2002-2009, the curvature of the line changed greatly, which shows a greater change in the magnitude of value, increased by 471 million yuan, 6.28 billion yuan, 653 million yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 6.3 billion Yuan, 5.69 billion yuan, 286 million yuan, 4.18 billion yuan respectively; only food production showed sustained reduced trend. value coefficients of Costanza showed: the 17 types, nutrient cycling provides the highest value in the ecosystem, which is related with rapid growth forest area, followed by water regulation, and raw materials.
GM prediction model demonstrate that value of ecosystem services in Chongqing will show growing trends in the next six years.
引文
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