太原市住宅类房地产预期评估研究
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摘要
城市住宅类房地产价的合理评估与否，是关系到居民能否居者有其屋的关键问题，房地产价格的预期评估能促进相关的引致需求的发展，为解决居民的自住需求提供帮助。张所地教授主持的国家自然科学基金研究项目《城市不动产动态与预期评估模型研究》，将城市不动产的市场价分别从历史和预期的角度考虑，能够在不动产评估的同时，对未来一定时期内的不动产价进行预期评估。本文选择太原市住宅类房地产进行实际应用，具体工作如下：
1.提出了心理预期的概率向量函数的权重加成法。
本文提出了概率向量函数的权重加成法，经过对评估模型中的预期因素的计算，对原有模型参数进行了补充，给出了人们的心理预期数据选择的确定方法，并综合主客观预期两方面考虑预期因素的度量。
2.动态分析了个人预期受周围人预期的影响程度。
本文使用了进化博弈的方法，对t期第i个人预期因素受周围人预期影响的大小进行了动态分析：发现短期内人们会依据自身不同的资产状况和预期成本进行动态的预期反应，长期内预期独立。
3．构建了太原市住宅类房地产数据库系统。
本文运用mapinfo软件，结合具有不同功能的图层,运用地理编码功能，构建了太原市住宅类房地产数据库系统。
4.构建了太原市住宅类房地产的预期评估模型。
本文构建了太原市住宅类房地产的预期评估模型，对当期太原市住宅类房地产价格进行拟合，提取出了客观预期因子。结合太原十二五规划的相关变化，用随机抽样的方法，选取14个楼盘进行了跨期的主客观的综合预期评估。
太原市不动产价的预期评估，为政府部门的土地定价，房地产开发商的楼盘定价以及房屋的转手者提供参考。
Whether accuracy or not of the city's residential real estate price is a crucial problem，which people whoneeds to reside in a house whether finding one or not.The assessing of the real estate's price can lead to thedevelop of relative derived demand,so as to supply assistence to people's residential demand of theirown.Professor Zhang Suodi proposed the project of National Natural Science Fund《dynamic and expectedevaluation model study of the city's real estate》, the model can be consider of city's real estate market priceseparately from the historical and the expected point of view, in the appraisal of the real estate at the sametime, and maked expected assessment in a certain time of future's real estate price evaluation. This paperselected residential real estate of TaiYuan for practical application, the specific work is as follows:
1.The integration of weighted fuction in the probability vector is proposed from psychological expectation.
This paper presented a method called integration of weighted fuction in the probability vector.through thecalculation of expected factors in the prine model,it supplied with parameter to the prime one,presented thedefinite procedure to the data selection of people's psychological expectation. Furthermore,we gived themeasurement of expection from subjective and objective aspects.
2.Analyzed effects extent of personal expectation from among people dynamically.
This paper used the approach of evolutionary game, on the dynamic analysis of i people’s expectationfrom among,in the period of t.We found that people would react dynamically depengding on their own assetscondition and expectation cost,in long term,the expectation is independent.
3.The system of the database system of residential real estate in TaiYuan is constructed.
This paper used the software of mapinfo,combining with distinct functional layer,using the geocodefunction to construct the database system of residential real estate in TaiYuan.
4.The model of expectation assessing of the residential real estate in TaiYuan is constructed.
This paper constructed the model of city's real estate price dynamics and expected evaluation model,fittingto the current Taiyuan city's residential real estate prices, extracting the objective expectationfactors.combining with Taiyuan's12th five-year plan changes, using random sampling method, selected14flats making the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation.
Taiyuan's real estate price anticipation assessment, can provide with land pricing for government,realestate developers' and the housing market's pricing reference.
1.提出了心理预期的概率向量函数的权重加成法。
本文提出了概率向量函数的权重加成法，经过对评估模型中的预期因素的计算，对原有模型参数进行了补充，给出了人们的心理预期数据选择的确定方法，并综合主客观预期两方面考虑预期因素的度量。
2.动态分析了个人预期受周围人预期的影响程度。
本文使用了进化博弈的方法，对t期第i个人预期因素受周围人预期影响的大小进行了动态分析：发现短期内人们会依据自身不同的资产状况和预期成本进行动态的预期反应，长期内预期独立。
3．构建了太原市住宅类房地产数据库系统。
本文运用mapinfo软件，结合具有不同功能的图层,运用地理编码功能，构建了太原市住宅类房地产数据库系统。
4.构建了太原市住宅类房地产的预期评估模型。
本文构建了太原市住宅类房地产的预期评估模型，对当期太原市住宅类房地产价格进行拟合，提取出了客观预期因子。结合太原十二五规划的相关变化，用随机抽样的方法，选取14个楼盘进行了跨期的主客观的综合预期评估。
太原市不动产价的预期评估，为政府部门的土地定价，房地产开发商的楼盘定价以及房屋的转手者提供参考。
Whether accuracy or not of the city's residential real estate price is a crucial problem，which people whoneeds to reside in a house whether finding one or not.The assessing of the real estate's price can lead to thedevelop of relative derived demand,so as to supply assistence to people's residential demand of theirown.Professor Zhang Suodi proposed the project of National Natural Science Fund《dynamic and expectedevaluation model study of the city's real estate》, the model can be consider of city's real estate market priceseparately from the historical and the expected point of view, in the appraisal of the real estate at the sametime, and maked expected assessment in a certain time of future's real estate price evaluation. This paperselected residential real estate of TaiYuan for practical application, the specific work is as follows:
1.The integration of weighted fuction in the probability vector is proposed from psychological expectation.
This paper presented a method called integration of weighted fuction in the probability vector.through thecalculation of expected factors in the prine model,it supplied with parameter to the prime one,presented thedefinite procedure to the data selection of people's psychological expectation. Furthermore,we gived themeasurement of expection from subjective and objective aspects.
2.Analyzed effects extent of personal expectation from among people dynamically.
This paper used the approach of evolutionary game, on the dynamic analysis of i people’s expectationfrom among,in the period of t.We found that people would react dynamically depengding on their own assetscondition and expectation cost,in long term,the expectation is independent.
3.The system of the database system of residential real estate in TaiYuan is constructed.
This paper used the software of mapinfo,combining with distinct functional layer,using the geocodefunction to construct the database system of residential real estate in TaiYuan.
4.The model of expectation assessing of the residential real estate in TaiYuan is constructed.
This paper constructed the model of city's real estate price dynamics and expected evaluation model,fittingto the current Taiyuan city's residential real estate prices, extracting the objective expectationfactors.combining with Taiyuan's12th five-year plan changes, using random sampling method, selected14flats making the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation.
Taiyuan's real estate price anticipation assessment, can provide with land pricing for government,realestate developers' and the housing market's pricing reference.
引文
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