潜油电泵系统的安全评价
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摘要
随着油田采油进入高含水期,针对潜油电泵越来越广泛的应用以及减少其故障导致的停产和维修等经济损失的需要,全面地分析了历年来潜油电泵的发展及研究现状,着重从目前研究所未涉及的系统模糊故障树分析和安全评价方面入手。首先,对模糊数学理论的应用,主要是对模糊故障树理论进行了分析;其次,结合胜利油田5年间的检泵资料,对潜油电泵系统故障的原因进行了详细分类及分析,并提出了相应的改进措施;再次,由上述的分析,建立了较为详备的潜油电泵系统故障树,并分别使用常规和模糊的故障树分析法对简化的故障树定性分析和定量计算,分析了系统故障的关键因素及重点部位,得出了更科学和符合实际的故障概率,并对结果进行了分析,以便更好的掌握电泵系统故障的重点部位及机理;然后,应用所得的系统故障概率,进行了系统风险的概率评价,再考虑到安全评价中存在着许多模糊因素,建立了基于人-机-环境的安全评价体系,结合专家经验用层次分析法确定了评价指标,对潜油电泵系统进行了模糊综合安全评价,并对评价结果进行了分析。通过建立和分析系统故障树,可以更好的掌握导致系统故障的主要因素,以合理安排检修时间,并为今后技术改进和加强管理提供科学依据;通过系统安全评价,可以全面分析影响电泵故障的人、机、环境等各方面原因,以加强安全防范措施,并使潜油电泵的安全评价在采油生产方面有普遍性的意义。
As the high water cut stage is coming, ascribe to the electric submersible pump (ESP) widely used and beneficiate need, the research condition and developmental trend on the ESP system are completely summarized, and vacancy of the research, fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy comprehensive assessment are emphasized. First, applied with the fuzzy mathematics, the failure reasons of ESP system are especially generalized and detailed analysis. And, by studied with the 5 years ESP inspection data of Shengli Oilfield, the ESP system failure reasons are classified and analyzed, and also commensurable innovative approaches are proposed. Then, the detailed fault tree of ESP system is established, and qualitative analysis and quantitative calculate are studied by means of traditional and fuzzy fault tree analysis, and the results are analyzed, in order that the ESP system’s critical fault place and mechanism can be better handled. On the basis of these studies, the ESP system’s probabilistic risk assessment is calculated. In view of the fuzzy factors of the safety assessment are existed, based on the Man-Machine-Media, the ESP safety assessment system is established. And by used of the experts experience and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the ESP system’s fuzzy comprehensive assessment is analyzed. Through the system’s fault tree establish and analysis, main fault factors can be mastered and the repairing time can be justifiable economized, moreover scientific base is provided for future technique improvements and strengthen managements. And through the system’s safety assessment, various sides, including man, machine, management and media, are multi-analyzed, to decrease the system’s fault probability and strengthen safe countermeasures. These ESP study methods have universal sense in the oil mining productions.
As the high water cut stage is coming, ascribe to the electric submersible pump (ESP) widely used and beneficiate need, the research condition and developmental trend on the ESP system are completely summarized, and vacancy of the research, fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy comprehensive assessment are emphasized. First, applied with the fuzzy mathematics, the failure reasons of ESP system are especially generalized and detailed analysis. And, by studied with the 5 years ESP inspection data of Shengli Oilfield, the ESP system failure reasons are classified and analyzed, and also commensurable innovative approaches are proposed. Then, the detailed fault tree of ESP system is established, and qualitative analysis and quantitative calculate are studied by means of traditional and fuzzy fault tree analysis, and the results are analyzed, in order that the ESP system’s critical fault place and mechanism can be better handled. On the basis of these studies, the ESP system’s probabilistic risk assessment is calculated. In view of the fuzzy factors of the safety assessment are existed, based on the Man-Machine-Media, the ESP safety assessment system is established. And by used of the experts experience and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the ESP system’s fuzzy comprehensive assessment is analyzed. Through the system’s fault tree establish and analysis, main fault factors can be mastered and the repairing time can be justifiable economized, moreover scientific base is provided for future technique improvements and strengthen managements. And through the system’s safety assessment, various sides, including man, machine, management and media, are multi-analyzed, to decrease the system’s fault probability and strengthen safe countermeasures. These ESP study methods have universal sense in the oil mining productions.
引文
[1] 梅思杰,邵永实,刘军等.潜油电泵技术(上、下册).北京:石油工业出版社,2004:43~51
[2] 无杆采油泵动态信息.胜利泵业技术服务站,2007;2:1~4
[3] A. Anderson. Integration of Intelligent Wells With Multi-Laterals, Sand Control, and Electric Submersible Pumps. International Petroleum Technology Conference,2005;27:21~23
[4] Galles D.J.,Larson J.B.. Optimized Electric Submersible Pumping to Extend Economic Oil Production in a High Water Cut Environment. Journal of Petroleum Technology,1999;48(1):56~62
[5] 高国良,宋衍,杨立昌等.新型电动潜油泵砂垢同防吸入口的研究与应用.石油机械,2006;34(6):64~65
[6] 刘新岩,李飞明,张祖良.高含砂油井液对电潜泵的破坏形式及改进措施.石油机械,2006;34(3):63~65
[7] 张学斌,徐学龙,吴金花.潜油电泵井个性化设计.大庆石油地质与开发,2005;24(5):64~65
[8] 钱钦,薛晶,郑勇等.提高电潜泵采油系统效率的优化设计.石油天然气学报,2006;28(4):134~135
[9] 尚健.数据传输系统在潜油电泵井的应用.化工之友,2006;02:55~56
[10] 张晓丽,杨建强,常春影.基于不确定性分析的模糊故障树的模糊数选择.重庆工学院学报,2005;19(5):19~22
[11] HanSuk Pan,WonYoung Yun. Fault Tree Analysis with Fuzzy Gates. Computers & Industrial Engineering,1997;33(3~4):569~572
[12] R.S.Chanda,P.K.Bhattachrjee. A reliability approach to transmissionexpansion planning using fuzzy fault-tree model. Electric Power Systems Research,1998;45:101~108
[13] 王小群,张兴容.模糊评价数学模型在企业安全评价中的应用.工业安全与环保,2002;28(12):29~32
[14] 宋开利,刘丙生,陈舜青等.模糊综合评价法在油井管杆偏磨分析中的应用.润滑与密封,2006;174(2):127~129
[15] 陈垚光.模糊灰色在安全评价中的应用.矿业安全与环保,2006;33(1):83~85
[16] 宋瑞,邓宝.神经元网络在安全评价中的应用.中国安全科学学报,2005;15(3):79~81
[17] W.J. Bailey,I.S. Weir,B. Cou?t. Survival Analysis: The Statistically Rigorous Method for Analyzing Electrical Submersible Pump System Performance. SPE Production & Operations,2006;21(4):492~504
[18] Ibrahim A. Metwally,Adel Gastli,Mohamed Al-Sheikh. Comparative investigation of lightning impulsetests on electricalsubmersiblepump motors. Electric Power Systems Research xxx,2006;2427:1~8
[19] Maston L..Mechanics of an Electric Submersible Pump Failure Mode. Production & Facilities,2002;17(1):62~67
[20] S.J. Sawaryn,K.N. Grames,O.P. Whelehan. The Analysis and Prediction of Electric Submersible Pump Failures in the Milne Point Field, Alaska. Production & Facilities,2002;17(1):53~61
[21] 张玉斌,于海春.潜油电泵机组可靠性研究.石油学报,2003;24(4):103~107
[22] 张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002;33~41
[23] Vesely W,Dugan J,Fragola J. Fault tree handbook with aerospaceapplications. National Aeronautics and Space Administration,2002;78~98
[24] 黄洪钟.机械系统故障树分析的一种新的模糊方法.机械科学与技术,1994;49:1~7
[25] 王永传,郁文贤,庄钊文.基于故障率为模糊数的故障树分析方法研究.系统工程理论与实践,2000;12:102~107
[26] 赵德孜,温卫东,段成美.故障树模糊分析方法的研究.机械设计与制造,2003;4:35~37
[27] Antonio C.F. Guimarees,Nelson F.F. Ebecken. FuzzyFTA:a fuzzy fault tree system for uncertainy analysis. Annals of Nuclear Energy,1999;26:523~532
[28] 孙瑜,李瑰贤,魏海军.圆柱正弦活齿减速器模糊故障树分析.大连海事大学学报,2004;30(3):77~80
[29] C.E. Kim,Y.J. Ju,M. Gens.Multilevel Fault Tree Analysis Using Fuzzy Nunbers. Computers Ops Res.,1996;23(7):695~703
[30] Dong Yuhua,Yu Datao. Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005;18:83~88
[31] 董玉革.机械模糊可靠性设计.北京:机械工业出版社,2001;23~45
[32] 聂廷哲,段常贵.天然气长输管道可靠性故障树模糊分析.油气储运,2003;22(6):44~46
[33] 李增亮,张来斌,房军.电潜泵潜油电动机转子弯曲振动临界转速分析.石油机械,2003;31(2):18~201
[34] Wilson B.L..ESP [Electric Submersible Pump] gas separators development and testing. 52nd Annual Southwestern Petroleum Short Course Meeting,2005;2:192~197
[35] B.A.Kotueaea,A.X.Шωьma.强化采油的新型潜油电泵设备.国外油田工程,2003;19(6):28~30
[36] New range of submersible electric pumps launched. World Pumps,2005;468:13
[37] 王志权.俄罗斯电潜泵装置的技术创新.石油机械,2000;10:62
[38] 申兴哲,孙宝泉,董社霞等.DBF-152 型电潜泵封隔器的研制与应用.石油机械,2003;31(2):28~30
[39] 彭惠芬.潜油电泵轴的可靠性分析与设计:[硕士学位论文],大庆石油学院,大庆:2006
[40] 卢运娇,冯定,余继华等.用故障树分析法研究潜油电机的故障.机械,2005;2:15~17
[41] F.M. Burdekin. General principles of the use of safety factors in design and assessment. Engineering Failure Analysis,2007;14:420~433
[42] Ibrahim M. Khadam,Jagath J. Kaluarachchi. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003;23:683~721
[43] 孙粤华,贾星兰.潜油电泵系统的安全评价方法研究.石油矿场机械,2003;32(5):15~17
[44] 李士勇.工程模糊数学及应用.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004;96~107
[45] K.A. Nigim,S. Suryanarayanan,R. Gorur. The application of analytical hierarchy process to analyze the impact of hidden failures in special protection schemes. Electric Power Systems Research,2003;67:191~196
[46] 赵焕臣,许树柏,和金生.层次分析法——一种新的决策方法.北京:科学出版社,1986;2~29
[47] S.G. Kariuki,K. Lowe. Integrating human factors into process hazard analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007;10:1~10
[48] Ibrahim M. Mahdi,Khaled Alreshaid. Decision support system for selecting the proper project delivery method using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). International Journal of Project Management,2005;23:564~572
[49] Yang Tao,Yang Xinmiao. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment, fuzzy clustering analysis and its application for urban traffic environment quality evaluation. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,1998;3(1):51~57
[50] 王乃举,金毓荪,裘怿楠等.中国油藏开发模式总论.北京:石油工业出版社,1999;1~16
[51] 别爱芳,王立荣,夏静等.“九五期间”PetroChina 老区原油产能建设成效分析.石油勘探与开发,2004;31(3):97~100
[52] 侯春华,肖武,周香翠等.胜利油区油藏分类研究.油气地质与采收率,2005;12(2):42~44
[2] 无杆采油泵动态信息.胜利泵业技术服务站,2007;2:1~4
[3] A. Anderson. Integration of Intelligent Wells With Multi-Laterals, Sand Control, and Electric Submersible Pumps. International Petroleum Technology Conference,2005;27:21~23
[4] Galles D.J.,Larson J.B.. Optimized Electric Submersible Pumping to Extend Economic Oil Production in a High Water Cut Environment. Journal of Petroleum Technology,1999;48(1):56~62
[5] 高国良,宋衍,杨立昌等.新型电动潜油泵砂垢同防吸入口的研究与应用.石油机械,2006;34(6):64~65
[6] 刘新岩,李飞明,张祖良.高含砂油井液对电潜泵的破坏形式及改进措施.石油机械,2006;34(3):63~65
[7] 张学斌,徐学龙,吴金花.潜油电泵井个性化设计.大庆石油地质与开发,2005;24(5):64~65
[8] 钱钦,薛晶,郑勇等.提高电潜泵采油系统效率的优化设计.石油天然气学报,2006;28(4):134~135
[9] 尚健.数据传输系统在潜油电泵井的应用.化工之友,2006;02:55~56
[10] 张晓丽,杨建强,常春影.基于不确定性分析的模糊故障树的模糊数选择.重庆工学院学报,2005;19(5):19~22
[11] HanSuk Pan,WonYoung Yun. Fault Tree Analysis with Fuzzy Gates. Computers & Industrial Engineering,1997;33(3~4):569~572
[12] R.S.Chanda,P.K.Bhattachrjee. A reliability approach to transmissionexpansion planning using fuzzy fault-tree model. Electric Power Systems Research,1998;45:101~108
[13] 王小群,张兴容.模糊评价数学模型在企业安全评价中的应用.工业安全与环保,2002;28(12):29~32
[14] 宋开利,刘丙生,陈舜青等.模糊综合评价法在油井管杆偏磨分析中的应用.润滑与密封,2006;174(2):127~129
[15] 陈垚光.模糊灰色在安全评价中的应用.矿业安全与环保,2006;33(1):83~85
[16] 宋瑞,邓宝.神经元网络在安全评价中的应用.中国安全科学学报,2005;15(3):79~81
[17] W.J. Bailey,I.S. Weir,B. Cou?t. Survival Analysis: The Statistically Rigorous Method for Analyzing Electrical Submersible Pump System Performance. SPE Production & Operations,2006;21(4):492~504
[18] Ibrahim A. Metwally,Adel Gastli,Mohamed Al-Sheikh. Comparative investigation of lightning impulsetests on electricalsubmersiblepump motors. Electric Power Systems Research xxx,2006;2427:1~8
[19] Maston L..Mechanics of an Electric Submersible Pump Failure Mode. Production & Facilities,2002;17(1):62~67
[20] S.J. Sawaryn,K.N. Grames,O.P. Whelehan. The Analysis and Prediction of Electric Submersible Pump Failures in the Milne Point Field, Alaska. Production & Facilities,2002;17(1):53~61
[21] 张玉斌,于海春.潜油电泵机组可靠性研究.石油学报,2003;24(4):103~107
[22] 张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002;33~41
[23] Vesely W,Dugan J,Fragola J. Fault tree handbook with aerospaceapplications. National Aeronautics and Space Administration,2002;78~98
[24] 黄洪钟.机械系统故障树分析的一种新的模糊方法.机械科学与技术,1994;49:1~7
[25] 王永传,郁文贤,庄钊文.基于故障率为模糊数的故障树分析方法研究.系统工程理论与实践,2000;12:102~107
[26] 赵德孜,温卫东,段成美.故障树模糊分析方法的研究.机械设计与制造,2003;4:35~37
[27] Antonio C.F. Guimarees,Nelson F.F. Ebecken. FuzzyFTA:a fuzzy fault tree system for uncertainy analysis. Annals of Nuclear Energy,1999;26:523~532
[28] 孙瑜,李瑰贤,魏海军.圆柱正弦活齿减速器模糊故障树分析.大连海事大学学报,2004;30(3):77~80
[29] C.E. Kim,Y.J. Ju,M. Gens.Multilevel Fault Tree Analysis Using Fuzzy Nunbers. Computers Ops Res.,1996;23(7):695~703
[30] Dong Yuhua,Yu Datao. Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2005;18:83~88
[31] 董玉革.机械模糊可靠性设计.北京:机械工业出版社,2001;23~45
[32] 聂廷哲,段常贵.天然气长输管道可靠性故障树模糊分析.油气储运,2003;22(6):44~46
[33] 李增亮,张来斌,房军.电潜泵潜油电动机转子弯曲振动临界转速分析.石油机械,2003;31(2):18~201
[34] Wilson B.L..ESP [Electric Submersible Pump] gas separators development and testing. 52nd Annual Southwestern Petroleum Short Course Meeting,2005;2:192~197
[35] B.A.Kotueaea,A.X.Шωьma.强化采油的新型潜油电泵设备.国外油田工程,2003;19(6):28~30
[36] New range of submersible electric pumps launched. World Pumps,2005;468:13
[37] 王志权.俄罗斯电潜泵装置的技术创新.石油机械,2000;10:62
[38] 申兴哲,孙宝泉,董社霞等.DBF-152 型电潜泵封隔器的研制与应用.石油机械,2003;31(2):28~30
[39] 彭惠芬.潜油电泵轴的可靠性分析与设计:[硕士学位论文],大庆石油学院,大庆:2006
[40] 卢运娇,冯定,余继华等.用故障树分析法研究潜油电机的故障.机械,2005;2:15~17
[41] F.M. Burdekin. General principles of the use of safety factors in design and assessment. Engineering Failure Analysis,2007;14:420~433
[42] Ibrahim M. Khadam,Jagath J. Kaluarachchi. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2003;23:683~721
[43] 孙粤华,贾星兰.潜油电泵系统的安全评价方法研究.石油矿场机械,2003;32(5):15~17
[44] 李士勇.工程模糊数学及应用.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004;96~107
[45] K.A. Nigim,S. Suryanarayanan,R. Gorur. The application of analytical hierarchy process to analyze the impact of hidden failures in special protection schemes. Electric Power Systems Research,2003;67:191~196
[46] 赵焕臣,许树柏,和金生.层次分析法——一种新的决策方法.北京:科学出版社,1986;2~29
[47] S.G. Kariuki,K. Lowe. Integrating human factors into process hazard analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007;10:1~10
[48] Ibrahim M. Mahdi,Khaled Alreshaid. Decision support system for selecting the proper project delivery method using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). International Journal of Project Management,2005;23:564~572
[49] Yang Tao,Yang Xinmiao. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment, fuzzy clustering analysis and its application for urban traffic environment quality evaluation. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,1998;3(1):51~57
[50] 王乃举,金毓荪,裘怿楠等.中国油藏开发模式总论.北京:石油工业出版社,1999;1~16
[51] 别爱芳,王立荣,夏静等.“九五期间”PetroChina 老区原油产能建设成效分析.石油勘探与开发,2004;31(3):97~100
[52] 侯春华,肖武,周香翠等.胜利油区油藏分类研究.油气地质与采收率,2005;12(2):42~44