人类活动对洪水预报影响分析及防洪调度研究
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摘要
我国不仅洪涝灾害频繁,洪灾损失严重,而且缺水问题突出。充分发挥水利工程特别是水库的作用,在确保防洪安全的前提下,开发利用洪水资源,减害增利,更好地促进人与自然和谐共存,是减少洪涝灾害、缓解水资源危机的重要措施。本文结合国家自然科学基金项目“水库汛限水位动态控制及其风险分析理论与方法研究”、“吉林省丰满水库流域小水库塘坝对水库来水的影响分析研究”课题、“大连市碧流河水库下游河道防洪能力分析研究”课题,重点研究人类活动影响下的水文效应,并将其引入概率洪水预报之中,提高了洪水预报精度;将水库下游河道过流能力变化的特性引入到水库防洪预报调度方式的制定中,使防洪预报调度方式更加贴近于实际;考虑洪灾损失指标,利用可变模糊优选模型分别选出了河道防洪工程措施最优方案和水库汛限水位动态控制最优方案,为河道防洪和水库实时调度提供了决策支持。
(1)人类活动对流域水循环影响不断加重,迫切需要量化人类活动对水文预报的影响程度。针对该问题,首先分析了碧流河水库流域和丰满水库流域受人类活动影响的程度,得出前者受人类活动影响较小,后者受影响较大的结论。然后通过对流域下垫面变化、水利工程建设运行情况的分析,获得人类活动对流域水循环影响的变点,并采用降雨径流趋势分析的方法对变点进行验证,利用数据挖掘方法分析变化后人类活动影响下的水文效应。以受人类活动影响显著,且多数水库运行资料短缺的丰满水库流域为研究背景,建立了基于决策树技术的场次洪水拦洪比推理模式,并利用T-S模糊推理方法对推理模式进行了验证。结果显示两种方法所建推理模式基本一致,利用决策树建立的推理模式可信度较高。应用该模式对流域场次洪水洪量预报修正的效果较好,其结果可用于指导实际洪水预报。
(2)提出了考虑人类活动影响的贝叶斯概率洪水预报模型,该模型通过人类活动影响下的水文效应推理模式推求获得场次洪水拦洪比及拦洪过程,利用场次洪水拦洪过程对原预报方案预报结果进行实时校正。模型利用贝叶斯分析对原预报方案预报结果的后验分布函数进行转换,利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法对高维分布函数进行吉布斯抽样模拟,通过大量迭代得到该分布函数的特征值与期望值,期望值即为概率预报的结果。抽样过程中分别考虑了人类活动影响的下限、上限和最可能实时校正作用。以丰满水库流域为例的验证结果表明,该模型可行而且实用,预报精度相对较高。人类活动水文效应对洪水峰值预报影响较大,而对洪水峰现时间预报影响相对较小。
(3)以碧流河水库下游河道及防护区城子坦镇为研究背景,针对缺乏实测流量资料的水库下游河道,利用一维河网水力计算软件MIKE11建模,模拟计算了多种工况(不同河床糙率系数、潮汐)条件下水库下游河道的过流能力,并利用HydroInfo水力计算软件进行了对比验证。分析了河床糙率系数和潮汐对河道过流能力的影响程度,得出河床糙率系数对于全河道过流能力较敏感,潮汐对于入海口河段影响较大的结论。水库下游过流能力研究成果是考虑下游河道过流能力的水库防洪调度研究的基础。利用一维、二维河网水力计算软件MIKE11、MIKE21建模,模拟分析了水库下游城镇在超标准洪水作用下的淹没状况。采用分类洪灾损失评估方法对淹没损失进行了评估,为水库汛期风险管理提供指标数据。基于B/S模式设计开发了水库下游防洪信息服务系统,为水库河道联合调度提供信息支持。
(4)针对下游有防护任务且防护目标距离入海口较近的水库,由于受堤防、河床糙率、潮汐的影响,其下游河道的过流能力较设计值(设计值偏安全地考虑了河床糙率、入海口潮汐变化影响)有较大的变化,而已有的预报调度方式大多是将其概化为定值进行设计的,并没有考虑河道过流能力变化特性的实际情况,以碧流河水库为研究背景,制定了基于下游河道过流能力分级的预报调度方式。该方式以考虑预报误差的累积净雨、入库流量和下游河道的过流能力为调度判别指标,将过流能力从以往大多采用的单纯约束提升到动态变化过程,更加贴近现实。随后的实例分析阐述了分级预报调度方式的制定过程,并通过对3场不同类型洪水的调节验证了该预报调度方式的可行性与合理性。
(5)以碧流河水库及其下游河道、防护区城子坦镇为研究背景,应用可变模糊优选模型分别对河道防洪工程措施方案与水库汛限水位动态控制方案进行了优选。从防护区淹没状况、社会、经济和生态多角度出发,将淹没面积、淹没最大水深、淹没经济损失、工程建设费用、社会和谐度和生态环境影响系数确定为工程措施方案优选指标。优选结果表明,加固险堤,疏浚防洪标准较低的部分河道,使下游防洪标准洪水达到18年一遇这一方案最符合当地的实际情况。在分析水库汛限水位动态控制影响因素的基础上,建立了汛限水位动态控制方案优选评价指标体系。分析计算了在水库汛限水位抬高的情况下,下游城镇发生超标准洪水时的淹没损失。结合水库防洪风险、年平均发电量、洪水资源利用率及供水保证率可靠度四项指标,确定了水库在实时调度阶段汛限水位动态控制的满意决策方案。
最后,对全文进行了总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
In China flood disaster happens continually and it often results enormous losses. However,water resource absence is one of outstanding problems in our country.Because the exploitation of flood resource can promote human and the nature harmoniously,utilizing hydraulic engineering fully(especially reservoir) is the important measure of lessening flood disaster and solving water resource crisis under the premise that the safety of flood control is insured.This paper combines the flood protection and disaster mitigation research projects of author affiliation.In this paper,firstly the hydrological effects with human activities are studied,and it is included in flood combined forecasting method which improves the precision of flood forecasting.Then the variational characteristic of flood protection ability of reservoir downstream river course is introduced to establish flood protection forecast operation,which result is more useful and rational.Finally the variable fuzzy optimization model is adopted to optimize the flood protection engineering schemes and the dynamic flood control limited water level schemes,which provides decision-making proofs for flood control of some basins and real-time operation of reservoirs.
(1) With the increasing impact of human activities on the basin's hydrologic cycle,it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the influence of hydrological forecasting by human activities.Firstly the impact of human activities on Biliuhe reservoir basin and Fengman reservoir basin are analyzed respectively and the result is gained that the impact of human activities on Biliuhe reservoir basin is much smaller than Fengman reservoir basin.Then the change-point of the impact of human activities on basin's hydrologic cycle is gained with the analysis of basin's underlaying surface changes and hydraulic projects running conditions,and it is validated by analysis on rainfall runoff trend.And hydrological effects with human activities are stressed based on data mining method.Then the reservoir storage scales inference model is established based on decision tree with Fengman reservoir basin for example which has remarkable human activities impact and lacks for reservoir operation data.Finally the established inference model is validated by T-S fuzzy inference method and the results of both inference methods are coincident.It is verified that the precision of the established inference model is comparative high,the corrected effect of the flood volume forecasting results using the established model is good comparatively and the model is applied to practically supervise flood forecasting.
(2) Bayesian probability forecast method is introduced which takes human activities impact into account.The method calculates reservoirs storage scales and storage process on the basis of the established hydrological effect inference model,and the primary forecasting scheme is modified in real time by the storage process.Bayesian probability forecast method converts the prediction results of the primary forecasting scheme by the posteriori distribution function,and Gibbs sample is processed for high dimensional distribution function by MCMC. Then the eigenvalue and expectation of the distributed function are found by iterative operation,and the expectation is the result of probability forecast.The minimum,maximum and optimum real time emendation function of human activities impact is considered respectively in the sampling process.Finally the precision of the Bayesian probability forecast method is validated by taking the Fengman reservoir basin for instance.The result indicates the method is feasible and practical,and its precision overwhelms the primary forecasting scheme.The flood peak forecasting has a great impact on hydrological effect of human activities,and forecasting of the time flood peak appearing has a lesser impact on hydrological effect of human activities.
(3) Taking the downstream river course of Biliuhe reservoir,protected area(Chengzitan Town) for instance,according to the situation of practical flux data absence for downstream river course of the reservoir,the one-dimensional river network model(MIKE11) is introduced to simulate its flood protection ability by controlling variables under various project-situation(such as different rough rate coefficients of riverbed,tide) and it is validated by HydroInfo hydraulic software.The impacts of rough rate coefficients of riverbed and tide for the flood protection ability,are analyzed respectively,and the conclusion is that the rough rate coefficients of riverbed is sensitive for the flood protection ability of all river course and the tide is sensitive for the flood protection ability of the entrance of the sea.Then the one-dimensional river network model(MIKE11) and the two-dimensional river network model(MIKE21) are introduced to calculate and analyze the flood inundation status for the downstream river town of the reservoir,and the flood inundation status are evaluated by zonal flood loss evaluation method which can offer the support data to risk management of reservoir in flood season.Finally the flood protection information system for downstream river course of reservoir is designed on the basis of B/S mode.which can provide decision-making proofs for joint operation system.
(4) To some reservoirs with the task of flood control and while near by the entrance of the sea,the flood protection ability of downstream river course shows great uncertainty, which varies with the following factors,bed roughness,tide,sea-wind and so on.However, the actual flood protection forecast operation modes are established by taking it into account as an invariant.If so,while the flood protection ability of downstream river course is lower, maybe we get losses if we undergo flood operation taking the old modes,whereas,we will bear economic loss because of releasing floodwater ahead of schedule.Aimed at those situations,with the background of Biliuhe reservoir,this paper develop a new flood protection forecast operation mode,which based on the classification of the flood protection ability of downstream river course.To further attest its feasibility,the new mode is adopted in operating three floods.The results show that the mode is useful and rational.
(5) Taking the Biliuhe reservoir and its downstream fiver course,protected area (Chengzitan Town) for instance,the variable fuzzy optimization model is adopted to optimize the flood protection engineering schemes and the dynamic flood control limited water level schemes.Proceed from the submerging state,society,economy and ecology angles,the submerging ares the deepest submerging depth,economic loss of flood disaster,the schema construction cost,social harmonious degree and ecological environment influence coefficient have been as optimization indices.The optimization results show that the schema "Reinforcing the dangerous banks and dredging some watercourses of lower flood standard and enhancing standard to 18-year flood" is suited for the local actual situation.Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the dynamic flood control limited water level of a reservoir, the evaluation index system on optimizing dynamic limited water level schemes is established. The flood disaster losses of Chengzitan town at the lower of the reservoir,the flood control risk of a reservoir,the mean annual generated energy,the utilization rate of water resource and the reliability of water-supply guaranteed rate after running up the limited water level are calculated.The satisfying schema obtained will provide an important reference and basis for dynamically controlling limited water level during real-time operation of a reservoir.
Finally,the conclusions are draw and the problems to be further studied are discussed.
(1)人类活动对流域水循环影响不断加重,迫切需要量化人类活动对水文预报的影响程度。针对该问题,首先分析了碧流河水库流域和丰满水库流域受人类活动影响的程度,得出前者受人类活动影响较小,后者受影响较大的结论。然后通过对流域下垫面变化、水利工程建设运行情况的分析,获得人类活动对流域水循环影响的变点,并采用降雨径流趋势分析的方法对变点进行验证,利用数据挖掘方法分析变化后人类活动影响下的水文效应。以受人类活动影响显著,且多数水库运行资料短缺的丰满水库流域为研究背景,建立了基于决策树技术的场次洪水拦洪比推理模式,并利用T-S模糊推理方法对推理模式进行了验证。结果显示两种方法所建推理模式基本一致,利用决策树建立的推理模式可信度较高。应用该模式对流域场次洪水洪量预报修正的效果较好,其结果可用于指导实际洪水预报。
(2)提出了考虑人类活动影响的贝叶斯概率洪水预报模型,该模型通过人类活动影响下的水文效应推理模式推求获得场次洪水拦洪比及拦洪过程,利用场次洪水拦洪过程对原预报方案预报结果进行实时校正。模型利用贝叶斯分析对原预报方案预报结果的后验分布函数进行转换,利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法对高维分布函数进行吉布斯抽样模拟,通过大量迭代得到该分布函数的特征值与期望值,期望值即为概率预报的结果。抽样过程中分别考虑了人类活动影响的下限、上限和最可能实时校正作用。以丰满水库流域为例的验证结果表明,该模型可行而且实用,预报精度相对较高。人类活动水文效应对洪水峰值预报影响较大,而对洪水峰现时间预报影响相对较小。
(3)以碧流河水库下游河道及防护区城子坦镇为研究背景,针对缺乏实测流量资料的水库下游河道,利用一维河网水力计算软件MIKE11建模,模拟计算了多种工况(不同河床糙率系数、潮汐)条件下水库下游河道的过流能力,并利用HydroInfo水力计算软件进行了对比验证。分析了河床糙率系数和潮汐对河道过流能力的影响程度,得出河床糙率系数对于全河道过流能力较敏感,潮汐对于入海口河段影响较大的结论。水库下游过流能力研究成果是考虑下游河道过流能力的水库防洪调度研究的基础。利用一维、二维河网水力计算软件MIKE11、MIKE21建模,模拟分析了水库下游城镇在超标准洪水作用下的淹没状况。采用分类洪灾损失评估方法对淹没损失进行了评估,为水库汛期风险管理提供指标数据。基于B/S模式设计开发了水库下游防洪信息服务系统,为水库河道联合调度提供信息支持。
(4)针对下游有防护任务且防护目标距离入海口较近的水库,由于受堤防、河床糙率、潮汐的影响,其下游河道的过流能力较设计值(设计值偏安全地考虑了河床糙率、入海口潮汐变化影响)有较大的变化,而已有的预报调度方式大多是将其概化为定值进行设计的,并没有考虑河道过流能力变化特性的实际情况,以碧流河水库为研究背景,制定了基于下游河道过流能力分级的预报调度方式。该方式以考虑预报误差的累积净雨、入库流量和下游河道的过流能力为调度判别指标,将过流能力从以往大多采用的单纯约束提升到动态变化过程,更加贴近现实。随后的实例分析阐述了分级预报调度方式的制定过程,并通过对3场不同类型洪水的调节验证了该预报调度方式的可行性与合理性。
(5)以碧流河水库及其下游河道、防护区城子坦镇为研究背景,应用可变模糊优选模型分别对河道防洪工程措施方案与水库汛限水位动态控制方案进行了优选。从防护区淹没状况、社会、经济和生态多角度出发,将淹没面积、淹没最大水深、淹没经济损失、工程建设费用、社会和谐度和生态环境影响系数确定为工程措施方案优选指标。优选结果表明,加固险堤,疏浚防洪标准较低的部分河道,使下游防洪标准洪水达到18年一遇这一方案最符合当地的实际情况。在分析水库汛限水位动态控制影响因素的基础上,建立了汛限水位动态控制方案优选评价指标体系。分析计算了在水库汛限水位抬高的情况下,下游城镇发生超标准洪水时的淹没损失。结合水库防洪风险、年平均发电量、洪水资源利用率及供水保证率可靠度四项指标,确定了水库在实时调度阶段汛限水位动态控制的满意决策方案。
最后,对全文进行了总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
In China flood disaster happens continually and it often results enormous losses. However,water resource absence is one of outstanding problems in our country.Because the exploitation of flood resource can promote human and the nature harmoniously,utilizing hydraulic engineering fully(especially reservoir) is the important measure of lessening flood disaster and solving water resource crisis under the premise that the safety of flood control is insured.This paper combines the flood protection and disaster mitigation research projects of author affiliation.In this paper,firstly the hydrological effects with human activities are studied,and it is included in flood combined forecasting method which improves the precision of flood forecasting.Then the variational characteristic of flood protection ability of reservoir downstream river course is introduced to establish flood protection forecast operation,which result is more useful and rational.Finally the variable fuzzy optimization model is adopted to optimize the flood protection engineering schemes and the dynamic flood control limited water level schemes,which provides decision-making proofs for flood control of some basins and real-time operation of reservoirs.
(1) With the increasing impact of human activities on the basin's hydrologic cycle,it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the influence of hydrological forecasting by human activities.Firstly the impact of human activities on Biliuhe reservoir basin and Fengman reservoir basin are analyzed respectively and the result is gained that the impact of human activities on Biliuhe reservoir basin is much smaller than Fengman reservoir basin.Then the change-point of the impact of human activities on basin's hydrologic cycle is gained with the analysis of basin's underlaying surface changes and hydraulic projects running conditions,and it is validated by analysis on rainfall runoff trend.And hydrological effects with human activities are stressed based on data mining method.Then the reservoir storage scales inference model is established based on decision tree with Fengman reservoir basin for example which has remarkable human activities impact and lacks for reservoir operation data.Finally the established inference model is validated by T-S fuzzy inference method and the results of both inference methods are coincident.It is verified that the precision of the established inference model is comparative high,the corrected effect of the flood volume forecasting results using the established model is good comparatively and the model is applied to practically supervise flood forecasting.
(2) Bayesian probability forecast method is introduced which takes human activities impact into account.The method calculates reservoirs storage scales and storage process on the basis of the established hydrological effect inference model,and the primary forecasting scheme is modified in real time by the storage process.Bayesian probability forecast method converts the prediction results of the primary forecasting scheme by the posteriori distribution function,and Gibbs sample is processed for high dimensional distribution function by MCMC. Then the eigenvalue and expectation of the distributed function are found by iterative operation,and the expectation is the result of probability forecast.The minimum,maximum and optimum real time emendation function of human activities impact is considered respectively in the sampling process.Finally the precision of the Bayesian probability forecast method is validated by taking the Fengman reservoir basin for instance.The result indicates the method is feasible and practical,and its precision overwhelms the primary forecasting scheme.The flood peak forecasting has a great impact on hydrological effect of human activities,and forecasting of the time flood peak appearing has a lesser impact on hydrological effect of human activities.
(3) Taking the downstream river course of Biliuhe reservoir,protected area(Chengzitan Town) for instance,according to the situation of practical flux data absence for downstream river course of the reservoir,the one-dimensional river network model(MIKE11) is introduced to simulate its flood protection ability by controlling variables under various project-situation(such as different rough rate coefficients of riverbed,tide) and it is validated by HydroInfo hydraulic software.The impacts of rough rate coefficients of riverbed and tide for the flood protection ability,are analyzed respectively,and the conclusion is that the rough rate coefficients of riverbed is sensitive for the flood protection ability of all river course and the tide is sensitive for the flood protection ability of the entrance of the sea.Then the one-dimensional river network model(MIKE11) and the two-dimensional river network model(MIKE21) are introduced to calculate and analyze the flood inundation status for the downstream river town of the reservoir,and the flood inundation status are evaluated by zonal flood loss evaluation method which can offer the support data to risk management of reservoir in flood season.Finally the flood protection information system for downstream river course of reservoir is designed on the basis of B/S mode.which can provide decision-making proofs for joint operation system.
(4) To some reservoirs with the task of flood control and while near by the entrance of the sea,the flood protection ability of downstream river course shows great uncertainty, which varies with the following factors,bed roughness,tide,sea-wind and so on.However, the actual flood protection forecast operation modes are established by taking it into account as an invariant.If so,while the flood protection ability of downstream river course is lower, maybe we get losses if we undergo flood operation taking the old modes,whereas,we will bear economic loss because of releasing floodwater ahead of schedule.Aimed at those situations,with the background of Biliuhe reservoir,this paper develop a new flood protection forecast operation mode,which based on the classification of the flood protection ability of downstream river course.To further attest its feasibility,the new mode is adopted in operating three floods.The results show that the mode is useful and rational.
(5) Taking the Biliuhe reservoir and its downstream fiver course,protected area (Chengzitan Town) for instance,the variable fuzzy optimization model is adopted to optimize the flood protection engineering schemes and the dynamic flood control limited water level schemes.Proceed from the submerging state,society,economy and ecology angles,the submerging ares the deepest submerging depth,economic loss of flood disaster,the schema construction cost,social harmonious degree and ecological environment influence coefficient have been as optimization indices.The optimization results show that the schema "Reinforcing the dangerous banks and dredging some watercourses of lower flood standard and enhancing standard to 18-year flood" is suited for the local actual situation.Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the dynamic flood control limited water level of a reservoir, the evaluation index system on optimizing dynamic limited water level schemes is established. The flood disaster losses of Chengzitan town at the lower of the reservoir,the flood control risk of a reservoir,the mean annual generated energy,the utilization rate of water resource and the reliability of water-supply guaranteed rate after running up the limited water level are calculated.The satisfying schema obtained will provide an important reference and basis for dynamically controlling limited water level during real-time operation of a reservoir.
Finally,the conclusions are draw and the problems to be further studied are discussed.
引文
[1]http://news.cyol.com/content/2008-09/02/content_2340907.htm
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