我国农村资金供给的区域差异及其对农村经济增长影响的实证研究
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摘要
改革开放以来随着我国经济持续快速增长,各地区经济发展水平的差距逐渐拉大且有加速扩大的趋势,而区域农村经济发展水平的差距要远远大于区域经济的差距。在这一现实背景下,认识农村资金资源区域非均衡配置状况及其在区域农村经济增长中的作用,寻求促进区域农村经济协调增长的农村财政金融改革对策与措施,是现阶段建设社会主义新农村与“统筹区域发展“面临的难题。已有的关于农村资金问题的相关研究成果主要集中在从国家宏观层面进行探讨,无论是国内还是国外都很少涉及从区域层面进行研究。基于此,论文选择从长期被忽视的区域层面对农村资金供给及其对农村经济增长的影响进行比较研究,并据此提出协调区域农村资金供给的区域差异化制度安排与政策措施。
论文首先对经典的金融发展理论关于金融发展与经济增长关系的观点进行了梳理和总结,由此在理论上形成了本文研究的逻辑起点。在理论分析的基础上,论文基于大量的数据资料,运用描述性统计分析方法从多个角度对我国农村资金供给的区域差异进行了系统、全面地比较分析。研究表明：其一,农村商业性信贷资金供给规模区域差异明显,东部地区的绝对规模要远大于中西部地区,但西部地区的相对规模反而大于东中部地区；农村商业性信贷资金支农结构普遍不合理,资金配置效率普遍不高。其二,受长期以来对中国农业发展银行职能特殊定位的影响,农业政策性信贷规模主产区要远大于产销平衡区与主销区,但区域信贷结构雷同；农业发展银行政策性与商业性信贷业务的区域分布明显有悖于政策性金融逆市场配置的原则。其三,农村民间借贷规模呈东中西递减分布；经济发达地区民间借贷的组织化程度,民间借贷中有息借贷的比例、用于生产性用途的比例、采用抵押担保的比例均要高于欠发达地区。其四,省级财政支农资金规模区域差异明显,中部地区无论绝对规模与相对规模都小于东西部地区；东中西部地区财政支农资金结构均不尽合理,资金使用效率普遍不高,其中尤以西部地区为甚。
农村资金供给的区域差异必然对区域农村经济增长产生不同的影响。论文在分析农村资金供给区域差异的基础上,分别利用面板数据、混合数据或时间序列数据构建模型实证检验了这一影响。实证结论表明：其一,农村商业性信贷资金规模的扩大仅对中西部地区农村经济增长具有显著的推动作用,而资金供给结构的不合理则主要抑制了东部地区农村经济的增长,其可能原因在于东部地区农村资金供给结构与农村经济结构的严重错位；资金配置效率的低下对三大地区农村经济增长均具有十分显著的负向影响,表明农村资金的非农化已极大地制约了农村经济增长。其二,农业政策性信贷仅对粮食主产区农业经济增长具有较显著的推动作用,对主销区与产销平衡区农业经济增长作用不显著,说明我国农业政策性金融不考虑区域差异的功能定位严重影响了其作用的发挥。其三,无论在长期还是短期,三大地区农村民间借贷对农民增收都没有产生预期中的促进作用,反而在一定程度上抑制了农民收入的增长；格兰杰因果检验也表明三大地区农民收入增长都是农村民间借贷发展的格兰杰原因,但民间借贷并不是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因。其四,东中西部地区财政支农资金对农业经济增长均具有明显的促进作用,相对而言,经济塌陷且财政支农弱化的中部地区影响程度要低于东西部地区。
根据理论与实证研究结果,论文较系统地提出了促进农村资金供给区域协调的政策建议。鉴于农村金融供给模式决定着农村金融制度安排与具体的政策措施,论文分析了我国区域差异化农村金融供给模式的选择,认为发达地区、相对发达地区、欠发达地区可分别选择市场导向型、政府适度导向型、政府导向型农村金融供给模式。在此基础上,研究提出了构建区域差异化农村金融供给体系的建议,即应根据农村金融需求的区域差异设计区域农村金融组织架构,经济发展程度不同的农村地区民间金融、合作金融、商业性金融、政策性金融主次搭配应体现差异；农村金融机构的改革与发展,包括农村信用社的改革、新型农村金融机构的组建、民间金融合法化的引导方法均应体现区域差异；农村金融机构应提供并创新差异化的金融产品与服务以满足区域差异化的需求。与此同时,应采取区域差别化的财政金融政策促进区域农村经济的协调发展,并积极推动有利于农村资金形成的土地金融制度改革。
Since the reform and opening up, with China's sustained and rapid economic growth, the gap between the levels of economic development of different regions has been widening gradually, and the expansion is accelerating. However, the regional disparity between the levels of economic development in rural areas is much larger than that between regional economies. In the context of this reality, understanding the status of the regional non-equilibrium of rural financial resources and its role in the regional rural economic growth, and looking for countermeasures which can promote the coordinated growth of regional rural economy for fiscal and financial reforms in rural areas, are the challenges faced by the "new socialist countryside" program and the "unified regional development" program at the present stage. Existing research related to rural finance issues mainly discuss from the national macro-level perspective, whether at home or abroad. Few scholars study that from the regional level perspective. Nevertheless, this paper proposes institutional arrangements and policy measures against regional differentiation to coordinate the regional rural capital supply, based on a comparative study on the capital supply in different rural areas and its impact on rural economic growth from the regional perspective which has long been neglected.
At the beginning, this paper collates and summarizes the classical financial development theories related to the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and theoretically, this forms a logical starting point for this paper. On the basis of the theoretical analysis and extensive data, and from multiple angles, this paper does a systematic and comprehensive comparative analysis of the regional differentiation of capital supply in rural areas by descriptive statistical analysis method. Studies have shown that first, rural commercial credit supply scales between regions are obviously different. The absolute size of capital supply in the eastern regions is much larger than in the central and western regions, while the relative size of capital supply in the western regions is larger than that in the central and eastern regions. The structure of rural commercial credit funds is generally irrational and the efficiency of capital allocation is generally not high. Second, because of the long-term impact of the special position given to China Agricultural Development Bank's functions, the agricultural policy credit scale in the main producing areas is much larger than that in the main selling areas and the areas where production and sales are balanced, whereas regional credit structure is identical. For China's Agricultural Development Bank, the regional distributions of both policy and commercial credit operations are obviously inconsistent with the principle of the policy-oriented finance for non-market allocation. Third, the size of the rural private lending was decreasing from the eastern regions to central and western regions; the degree of organization of the private lending in the developed regions is higher than that of the underdeveloped areas; the proportion of interest-bearing borrowings, the proportion used for productive purposes, and the ratio of collateral in the developed regions, are higher than that of the underdeveloped areas. Lastly, the regional differentiation of the Provincial government expenditures in rural areas is significant; both the absolute and relative sizes of capital supply in the central regions are smaller than those in the eastern and western regions; in the central, eastern and western regions, the structure of government expenditure to support agriculture is generally irrational, and the efficiency in the use of funds is generally not high, especially in the western regions.
The regional differentiation of capital supply in rural areas is bound to produce different effects on rural regional economic growth. Through analyzing the regional differentiation of the rural capital supply, this paper builds model, and tests this effect empirically by Panel data, mixed data or time-series data respectively. Empirical findings show that first, expanding the scale of the rural commercial credit funds has a significant role in promoting rural economic growth only in central and western regions. The irrational structure of fund supply is largely inhibiting the growth of rural economy in the eastern regions, and its possible reason is that, the structure of rural capital supply in the eastern part is seriously uncoordinated with its rural economic structure. The low efficiency of capital allocation in these three major regions all has a very significant negative impact on their economic growth, which indicates that the rural capital's non-agricultural use has significantly restricted rural economic growth. Second, the agricultural policy has a significant role in promoting the rural economic growth in major grain producing areas only, whereas in the main selling areas and the areas where production and sales are balanced, its role is not significant. This phenomenon shows that China's agricultural policy finance doesn't take into account regional differences, which restricts its role play. Third, in the long run or short run, rural private lending in these three areas failed to produce the expected increase in farmers'income. On the contrary, to some extent, it has inhibited the growth of the farmers'income. Granger causality test also shows that the farmers'income growth in these three regions is the Granger reason for the development of rural private lending, but private loans is not the Granger reason for the growth of farmers'income. Fourth, the financial fund for agriculture in these three regions all has a significant role in promoting the agricultural economic growth. Comparatively speaking, such promoting effects in the central region where suffers an economic collapse and weakening financial support for agriculture is lower than that in the east and west.
According to the theoretical and empirical findings, the paper puts forward several policy recommendations to promote the regional coordination about the rural capital supply. Considering that, the rural financial supply model determines the arrangements of the rural financial system and specific policies and measures. This paper analyzes the choices about the national rural financial supply modes with regional differences, and believes that, for the developed regions, the relatively developed regions and less developed regions, choosing the market-oriented, the government moderate-oriented and the government-oriented of the rural finance supply models respectively is reasonable. On this basis, the paper proposes several recommendations to build the rural financial supply system with regional difference, that is, we should design the organizational structure of regional rural finance according to the regional differences of funding needs in rural areas. For rural regions where the levels of economic development are different, it should reflect the differences in arranging the choices of private banking, cooperative banking, commercial finance and policy-oriented finance. The reform and development of rural financial institutions, including the reform of rural credit cooperatives, the formation of new-type rural financial institutions and the guide methods of the private finance's legalization, should all reflect regional differences. Rural financial institutions should provide and innovate differentiated financial products and services to meet the needs of regional differences. At the same time, we should adopt fiscal and financial policies which are regionally different to promote the coordinated development of regional rural economy, and promote the institutional reform of land finance which is positively conducive to capital formation in rural areas.
论文首先对经典的金融发展理论关于金融发展与经济增长关系的观点进行了梳理和总结,由此在理论上形成了本文研究的逻辑起点。在理论分析的基础上,论文基于大量的数据资料,运用描述性统计分析方法从多个角度对我国农村资金供给的区域差异进行了系统、全面地比较分析。研究表明：其一,农村商业性信贷资金供给规模区域差异明显,东部地区的绝对规模要远大于中西部地区,但西部地区的相对规模反而大于东中部地区；农村商业性信贷资金支农结构普遍不合理,资金配置效率普遍不高。其二,受长期以来对中国农业发展银行职能特殊定位的影响,农业政策性信贷规模主产区要远大于产销平衡区与主销区,但区域信贷结构雷同；农业发展银行政策性与商业性信贷业务的区域分布明显有悖于政策性金融逆市场配置的原则。其三,农村民间借贷规模呈东中西递减分布；经济发达地区民间借贷的组织化程度,民间借贷中有息借贷的比例、用于生产性用途的比例、采用抵押担保的比例均要高于欠发达地区。其四,省级财政支农资金规模区域差异明显,中部地区无论绝对规模与相对规模都小于东西部地区；东中西部地区财政支农资金结构均不尽合理,资金使用效率普遍不高,其中尤以西部地区为甚。
农村资金供给的区域差异必然对区域农村经济增长产生不同的影响。论文在分析农村资金供给区域差异的基础上,分别利用面板数据、混合数据或时间序列数据构建模型实证检验了这一影响。实证结论表明：其一,农村商业性信贷资金规模的扩大仅对中西部地区农村经济增长具有显著的推动作用,而资金供给结构的不合理则主要抑制了东部地区农村经济的增长,其可能原因在于东部地区农村资金供给结构与农村经济结构的严重错位；资金配置效率的低下对三大地区农村经济增长均具有十分显著的负向影响,表明农村资金的非农化已极大地制约了农村经济增长。其二,农业政策性信贷仅对粮食主产区农业经济增长具有较显著的推动作用,对主销区与产销平衡区农业经济增长作用不显著,说明我国农业政策性金融不考虑区域差异的功能定位严重影响了其作用的发挥。其三,无论在长期还是短期,三大地区农村民间借贷对农民增收都没有产生预期中的促进作用,反而在一定程度上抑制了农民收入的增长；格兰杰因果检验也表明三大地区农民收入增长都是农村民间借贷发展的格兰杰原因,但民间借贷并不是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因。其四,东中西部地区财政支农资金对农业经济增长均具有明显的促进作用,相对而言,经济塌陷且财政支农弱化的中部地区影响程度要低于东西部地区。
根据理论与实证研究结果,论文较系统地提出了促进农村资金供给区域协调的政策建议。鉴于农村金融供给模式决定着农村金融制度安排与具体的政策措施,论文分析了我国区域差异化农村金融供给模式的选择,认为发达地区、相对发达地区、欠发达地区可分别选择市场导向型、政府适度导向型、政府导向型农村金融供给模式。在此基础上,研究提出了构建区域差异化农村金融供给体系的建议,即应根据农村金融需求的区域差异设计区域农村金融组织架构,经济发展程度不同的农村地区民间金融、合作金融、商业性金融、政策性金融主次搭配应体现差异；农村金融机构的改革与发展,包括农村信用社的改革、新型农村金融机构的组建、民间金融合法化的引导方法均应体现区域差异；农村金融机构应提供并创新差异化的金融产品与服务以满足区域差异化的需求。与此同时,应采取区域差别化的财政金融政策促进区域农村经济的协调发展,并积极推动有利于农村资金形成的土地金融制度改革。
Since the reform and opening up, with China's sustained and rapid economic growth, the gap between the levels of economic development of different regions has been widening gradually, and the expansion is accelerating. However, the regional disparity between the levels of economic development in rural areas is much larger than that between regional economies. In the context of this reality, understanding the status of the regional non-equilibrium of rural financial resources and its role in the regional rural economic growth, and looking for countermeasures which can promote the coordinated growth of regional rural economy for fiscal and financial reforms in rural areas, are the challenges faced by the "new socialist countryside" program and the "unified regional development" program at the present stage. Existing research related to rural finance issues mainly discuss from the national macro-level perspective, whether at home or abroad. Few scholars study that from the regional level perspective. Nevertheless, this paper proposes institutional arrangements and policy measures against regional differentiation to coordinate the regional rural capital supply, based on a comparative study on the capital supply in different rural areas and its impact on rural economic growth from the regional perspective which has long been neglected.
At the beginning, this paper collates and summarizes the classical financial development theories related to the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and theoretically, this forms a logical starting point for this paper. On the basis of the theoretical analysis and extensive data, and from multiple angles, this paper does a systematic and comprehensive comparative analysis of the regional differentiation of capital supply in rural areas by descriptive statistical analysis method. Studies have shown that first, rural commercial credit supply scales between regions are obviously different. The absolute size of capital supply in the eastern regions is much larger than in the central and western regions, while the relative size of capital supply in the western regions is larger than that in the central and eastern regions. The structure of rural commercial credit funds is generally irrational and the efficiency of capital allocation is generally not high. Second, because of the long-term impact of the special position given to China Agricultural Development Bank's functions, the agricultural policy credit scale in the main producing areas is much larger than that in the main selling areas and the areas where production and sales are balanced, whereas regional credit structure is identical. For China's Agricultural Development Bank, the regional distributions of both policy and commercial credit operations are obviously inconsistent with the principle of the policy-oriented finance for non-market allocation. Third, the size of the rural private lending was decreasing from the eastern regions to central and western regions; the degree of organization of the private lending in the developed regions is higher than that of the underdeveloped areas; the proportion of interest-bearing borrowings, the proportion used for productive purposes, and the ratio of collateral in the developed regions, are higher than that of the underdeveloped areas. Lastly, the regional differentiation of the Provincial government expenditures in rural areas is significant; both the absolute and relative sizes of capital supply in the central regions are smaller than those in the eastern and western regions; in the central, eastern and western regions, the structure of government expenditure to support agriculture is generally irrational, and the efficiency in the use of funds is generally not high, especially in the western regions.
The regional differentiation of capital supply in rural areas is bound to produce different effects on rural regional economic growth. Through analyzing the regional differentiation of the rural capital supply, this paper builds model, and tests this effect empirically by Panel data, mixed data or time-series data respectively. Empirical findings show that first, expanding the scale of the rural commercial credit funds has a significant role in promoting rural economic growth only in central and western regions. The irrational structure of fund supply is largely inhibiting the growth of rural economy in the eastern regions, and its possible reason is that, the structure of rural capital supply in the eastern part is seriously uncoordinated with its rural economic structure. The low efficiency of capital allocation in these three major regions all has a very significant negative impact on their economic growth, which indicates that the rural capital's non-agricultural use has significantly restricted rural economic growth. Second, the agricultural policy has a significant role in promoting the rural economic growth in major grain producing areas only, whereas in the main selling areas and the areas where production and sales are balanced, its role is not significant. This phenomenon shows that China's agricultural policy finance doesn't take into account regional differences, which restricts its role play. Third, in the long run or short run, rural private lending in these three areas failed to produce the expected increase in farmers'income. On the contrary, to some extent, it has inhibited the growth of the farmers'income. Granger causality test also shows that the farmers'income growth in these three regions is the Granger reason for the development of rural private lending, but private loans is not the Granger reason for the growth of farmers'income. Fourth, the financial fund for agriculture in these three regions all has a significant role in promoting the agricultural economic growth. Comparatively speaking, such promoting effects in the central region where suffers an economic collapse and weakening financial support for agriculture is lower than that in the east and west.
According to the theoretical and empirical findings, the paper puts forward several policy recommendations to promote the regional coordination about the rural capital supply. Considering that, the rural financial supply model determines the arrangements of the rural financial system and specific policies and measures. This paper analyzes the choices about the national rural financial supply modes with regional differences, and believes that, for the developed regions, the relatively developed regions and less developed regions, choosing the market-oriented, the government moderate-oriented and the government-oriented of the rural finance supply models respectively is reasonable. On this basis, the paper proposes several recommendations to build the rural financial supply system with regional difference, that is, we should design the organizational structure of regional rural finance according to the regional differences of funding needs in rural areas. For rural regions where the levels of economic development are different, it should reflect the differences in arranging the choices of private banking, cooperative banking, commercial finance and policy-oriented finance. The reform and development of rural financial institutions, including the reform of rural credit cooperatives, the formation of new-type rural financial institutions and the guide methods of the private finance's legalization, should all reflect regional differences. Rural financial institutions should provide and innovate differentiated financial products and services to meet the needs of regional differences. At the same time, we should adopt fiscal and financial policies which are regionally different to promote the coordinated development of regional rural economy, and promote the institutional reform of land finance which is positively conducive to capital formation in rural areas.
引文
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