主权财富基金现象研究
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摘要
全球经济失衡的直接后果之一就是新兴国家外部资产迅速提高。20世纪以来,东亚出口经济模式虽然发生了区域性内部结构调整,但是与世界发达国家尤其是美国的经常项目顺差却持续扩大,东亚新兴经济体尤其是中国积累了大量的外汇储备资产。同时由于美元贬值和全球经济增长,石油价格在这十年来总体迅速飙升,石油出口国出口收入遽增,政府外部财富迅速积累。
由于外部财富积累规模迅速膨胀,对外部财富管理的财务性要求和战略性要求成为国家经济发展与国民财富管理的新课题。在原有的国家外部财富管理模式下,储备资产的资产配置以稳定为主,讲究安全性与流动性,以满足正常国家国际收支平衡或是财政收支稳定的需要,储备资产的投资配置也自然以国际金融市场的固定收益产品为主。但是,随着主要储备货币的贬值和发达国家的低利率,超额储备的国际投资收益过低甚至负收益的状况逐渐饱受国民诟病。同时,新兴国家巨大的外部资产在经济与金融全球化过程中的战略职能逐渐受到重视,采取积极管理策略来进行国家经济战略的外部安排,成为许多国家的选择。在这个背景下,被称为“主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund)”的特定财富管理机构也就应运而生了。
从主权财富基金的外部财富来源方式看,可以分为资源商品出口收入转化与加工商品出口收入转化者两种基本类型。资源出口国主权财富基金的形成源于资源发现采掘与资源价格上涨周期,外部财富盈余超出了基于平滑财政短期波动稳定基金以及基于跨期代际财富分配的储蓄基金的需求,转向全球高收益资产追逐或战略性投资,呈现主权财富基金特征。商品出口型主权财富基金的战略安排对资源出口国的经济结构调整有着积极的意义,有助于其内外部经济的再平衡。加工出口国主权财富基金主要产生于东亚新兴经济体,由其巨大的贸易顺差收入经过外汇冲销干预累积的外汇储备资产转化形成。由于东亚新兴经济体货币当局的外汇储备远远超出了一般意义下的安全性、流动性需求,对超额储备的保值增值管理以及对外部资产的战略化管理逐渐成为东亚新兴经济体的共识,主权财富基金承担了这一重要使命,通过对全球战略资产配置和资源整合,以期逐步改变全球产业分布不合理的局面,寻求全球经济再平衡。
本文从金融全球化下的全球经济失衡分析入手,阐述金融一体化进程在世界经济发展和经济关系中所占据的主导地位。鉴于国际货币体系的发展与国际资本流动已经凌驾于实体经济之上,原有的全球实体经济制衡与调节理论难以尽述全球经济失衡的新特征,本文认为应当从资本与金融视角对全球经济失衡下进行重新解读。全球经济失衡的金融表现的一个明显特征就是新兴经济体由于不断增长的国家贸易顺差,积累巨大的外部财富。如何合理并有效地管理这些主权财富,成为各国政府与全球金融市场关注的问题。通过对发达国家与发展中国家的全球经济竞争力与国际投资头寸分析,本文认为金融发展差异才是全球经济失衡的最根本原因,发达国家领先的市场化金融体系以及高度的金融一体化已经使之占领了“金融战略高地”,成为国际分工的驱动因素,并在国际货币体系安排之下形成强化与固化机制,造成全球经济失衡的必然。发展中国家只有通过金融深化以及积极参与金融一体化,利用主权财富基金进行全球金融资本的战略投资,从根本上改善全球金融分工格局,才能寻求金融发展与国际产业分工的福利均衡。
实体经济层面上的全球再平衡建议只是镜中花、水中月。一方面发展中国家调节经济结构恢复外部平衡路途遥远,另一方面期望发达国家放弃金融发展优势利益也势所不能。所以,对外部财富的积极管理战略是当前很迫切的选择,主权财富基金现象的产生,正是新兴经济体外部盈余管理的升华,是这些外部财富资本化、国际金融投资、经济发展模式升级的意识觉醒与战略部署。
本文以主权财富基金兴起动机与主权财富基金宏观战略为核心,研究其与全球经济失衡的互动关系,以期寻找全球再平衡的新思维与可行路径。通过从资本与金融角度对全球经济失衡进行深度分析,本文提出近十年来全球经济失衡加剧的重要原因是国际货币体系不均衡与金融全球化相结合的产物。主权财富基金是全球失衡资本与金融视角的重要现象,更是新兴国家外部财富管理的升级与升华,也是新兴发展中国家对全球失衡进行再平衡的新途径。主权财富基金的成立与积极管理,能够服务于新兴国家的内部经济结构调整,藉此从国际贸易盈余方减小失衡幅度。在国际金融市场,主权财富基金通过资产配置策略的实施,对国家资本流动格局产生重要影响,也同时促进国际货币体系恢复均衡,降低国际资本借方在国际货币特权下的融资便利,促使经常项目赤字方主动调衡国际收支,使全球经济发展走向再平衡。同时,主权财富基金的全球投资将加强发展中国家货币国际化与区域货币一体化,同时减少储备需求,对国际货币体系的再平衡也有着积极意义。
全球经济再平衡进程漫长,也充满着诸多不确定性,给主权财富基金的投资管理路径与未来命运带来挑战。主权财富基金的战略投资执行与再平衡之间的互动机制也是复杂的。从金融视角分析,主权财富基金的战略安排意在为本国金融发展和产业调整寻求战略资源,直接对西方国家的核心竞争力发起了挑战,必然受到国际保护主义的制约。为了主权财富基金的战略得以顺利执行,必须建立国际金融新秩序与国际监管与协调机制。
中国是全球经济失衡的主要盈余方,成立主权财富基金来履行外部财富积极管理,对中国经济内外部平衡有着重要的意义,是基于中国经济总体战略的重要布局。鉴于中国特殊的国际政治与经济地位,如何制定中国主权财富基金对外投资战略是值得深入探讨的问题。本文尝试给出中国外部财富管理战略思路以及中国外汇储备分流机制的初步建议,并尝试对现存的主权财富基金模式与管理进行评价与分析。
本文可能的创新之处:立足于金融角度对全球经济失衡进行分析与阐释,说明全球金融发展的落差是发展中国家与发达国家核心竞争力差异的产物,失衡是必然的并具有长期性。金融全球化已经在很大程度上控制了全球经济发展格局,而外部财富积极管理是新兴经济体金融一体化进程的重要战略,战略的实施有助于长期经济再平衡;采用国际投资头寸(IIP)结构分析框架,结合估值效应,来评价发达国家与新兴经济体外部财富的资产与负债结构与管理效率,评述国际货币体系中美元地位优势、美国长期形成的国际资本中介地位、美国对全球产业链的高端控制所形成的“三位一体”的核心竞争力,以及这种竞争力全球金融市场中的释放和影响,阐明主权财富基金所要面临的挑战与战略选择;本文对资源出口国家与东亚新兴国家的经济做了新角度解读,通过全球石油市场博弈状况,分析美国的美元政策、资源安全政策、跨国公司战略对新兴经济体的制约,说明国际货币体系中的美元特权效应机制,从而说明世界经济关系的金融主导型;对中国外部财富管理进行分析,对中国外汇储备的管理方略与改革方向进行客观评价,提出中国外汇储备分流机制与战略实施步骤。
This paper, focusing on the motives and macro-strategies of SWFs(sovereign wealth funds), makes a research on the interactive relationship between SWFs and GEI (global economic imbalance). Starting from GEI under the globalized financial context, this paper re-interpretes GEI from the perspectives of capital and finance. One obvious financial characteristic of GEI is that the emerging economies have accumulated huge external wealth because of their ever-growing trade surplus. How to manage the sovereign wealth reasonably and effectively has become a common concern for these countries and global financial market. An in-depth analysis on GEI from the perspectives of capital and finance has found that the main reason for the ever-worsening GEI is the mixture between the imbalanced international monetary system and financial globalization. SWF is the result of accumulating international reserves under context of the global imbalance, an important phenomenon of global imbalanced capital and finance, an upgrade and sublimation of how emerging countries manage their sovereign wealth, and a new channel for emerging developing countries to rebalance the global imbalances. The founding and positive management of SWFs can help the internal economic restructure for these emerging developing countries, therefore reduce the degree of imbalance from the international trade surplus side. In international financial markets, SWFs can, through asset allocation strategy, exert a great influence on the pattern of international capital flows, restore the balance of international monetary system, reducing the financing convenience of international capital debit under the international monetary privileges, force major current account deficit countries to adjust their balance of payments, therefore, promote a rebalance and coordinated development for the global economy. In the meantime, this paper analyses the relationship between the main strategy choices of a SWF and the overall national economic strategies, and the strategy choices of a SWF under various economic contexts.
This paper, through an analysis on global economic competitiveness between developed and developing countries and International Investment Position (IIP), argues that imbalance is inevitable given the fact that the financial integration of developed countries has already helped them occupy the financial strategy high grounds. Developing countries cannot change this imbalance and their weak financial position, unless they improve their participation in financial integration and make strategic management and disposition of their external wealth. From the perspective of global economic rebalance, the positive management of SWFs has a great influence on the direction and quantity of international capital flows, nevertheless promotes an optimal allocation of global resources and reduces economic imbalances. At the same time, the global investment of SWFs will also improve the currency internationalization of developing countries and regional monetary integration, reduce the need of international reserves, and help the rebalance of international monetary system. From the financial perspective, the strategic arrangements of a SWF intend to seek strategic resources for the country's financial development and industrial restructuring, thus directly challenge the core competitiveness of Western countries. As a result, it will inevitably be subject to the constraints of international protectionism. To implement smoothly the strategies of SWFs, it is necessary to establish a new international financial order and international supervision and coordination mechanism. China plays a major role in the global economic imbalances. Thus, it is fairly significant for internal and external balance of the Chinese economy that sovereign wealth funds are set up to actively manage the external wealth. Given China 's special international political and economic status, it is worthwhile to have an in-depth exploration on the issue of how to develop foreign investment strategies for China 's sovereign wealth funds.
由于外部财富积累规模迅速膨胀,对外部财富管理的财务性要求和战略性要求成为国家经济发展与国民财富管理的新课题。在原有的国家外部财富管理模式下,储备资产的资产配置以稳定为主,讲究安全性与流动性,以满足正常国家国际收支平衡或是财政收支稳定的需要,储备资产的投资配置也自然以国际金融市场的固定收益产品为主。但是,随着主要储备货币的贬值和发达国家的低利率,超额储备的国际投资收益过低甚至负收益的状况逐渐饱受国民诟病。同时,新兴国家巨大的外部资产在经济与金融全球化过程中的战略职能逐渐受到重视,采取积极管理策略来进行国家经济战略的外部安排,成为许多国家的选择。在这个背景下,被称为“主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund)”的特定财富管理机构也就应运而生了。
从主权财富基金的外部财富来源方式看,可以分为资源商品出口收入转化与加工商品出口收入转化者两种基本类型。资源出口国主权财富基金的形成源于资源发现采掘与资源价格上涨周期,外部财富盈余超出了基于平滑财政短期波动稳定基金以及基于跨期代际财富分配的储蓄基金的需求,转向全球高收益资产追逐或战略性投资,呈现主权财富基金特征。商品出口型主权财富基金的战略安排对资源出口国的经济结构调整有着积极的意义,有助于其内外部经济的再平衡。加工出口国主权财富基金主要产生于东亚新兴经济体,由其巨大的贸易顺差收入经过外汇冲销干预累积的外汇储备资产转化形成。由于东亚新兴经济体货币当局的外汇储备远远超出了一般意义下的安全性、流动性需求,对超额储备的保值增值管理以及对外部资产的战略化管理逐渐成为东亚新兴经济体的共识,主权财富基金承担了这一重要使命,通过对全球战略资产配置和资源整合,以期逐步改变全球产业分布不合理的局面,寻求全球经济再平衡。
本文从金融全球化下的全球经济失衡分析入手,阐述金融一体化进程在世界经济发展和经济关系中所占据的主导地位。鉴于国际货币体系的发展与国际资本流动已经凌驾于实体经济之上,原有的全球实体经济制衡与调节理论难以尽述全球经济失衡的新特征,本文认为应当从资本与金融视角对全球经济失衡下进行重新解读。全球经济失衡的金融表现的一个明显特征就是新兴经济体由于不断增长的国家贸易顺差,积累巨大的外部财富。如何合理并有效地管理这些主权财富,成为各国政府与全球金融市场关注的问题。通过对发达国家与发展中国家的全球经济竞争力与国际投资头寸分析,本文认为金融发展差异才是全球经济失衡的最根本原因,发达国家领先的市场化金融体系以及高度的金融一体化已经使之占领了“金融战略高地”,成为国际分工的驱动因素,并在国际货币体系安排之下形成强化与固化机制,造成全球经济失衡的必然。发展中国家只有通过金融深化以及积极参与金融一体化,利用主权财富基金进行全球金融资本的战略投资,从根本上改善全球金融分工格局,才能寻求金融发展与国际产业分工的福利均衡。
实体经济层面上的全球再平衡建议只是镜中花、水中月。一方面发展中国家调节经济结构恢复外部平衡路途遥远,另一方面期望发达国家放弃金融发展优势利益也势所不能。所以,对外部财富的积极管理战略是当前很迫切的选择,主权财富基金现象的产生,正是新兴经济体外部盈余管理的升华,是这些外部财富资本化、国际金融投资、经济发展模式升级的意识觉醒与战略部署。
本文以主权财富基金兴起动机与主权财富基金宏观战略为核心,研究其与全球经济失衡的互动关系,以期寻找全球再平衡的新思维与可行路径。通过从资本与金融角度对全球经济失衡进行深度分析,本文提出近十年来全球经济失衡加剧的重要原因是国际货币体系不均衡与金融全球化相结合的产物。主权财富基金是全球失衡资本与金融视角的重要现象,更是新兴国家外部财富管理的升级与升华,也是新兴发展中国家对全球失衡进行再平衡的新途径。主权财富基金的成立与积极管理,能够服务于新兴国家的内部经济结构调整,藉此从国际贸易盈余方减小失衡幅度。在国际金融市场,主权财富基金通过资产配置策略的实施,对国家资本流动格局产生重要影响,也同时促进国际货币体系恢复均衡,降低国际资本借方在国际货币特权下的融资便利,促使经常项目赤字方主动调衡国际收支,使全球经济发展走向再平衡。同时,主权财富基金的全球投资将加强发展中国家货币国际化与区域货币一体化,同时减少储备需求,对国际货币体系的再平衡也有着积极意义。
全球经济再平衡进程漫长,也充满着诸多不确定性,给主权财富基金的投资管理路径与未来命运带来挑战。主权财富基金的战略投资执行与再平衡之间的互动机制也是复杂的。从金融视角分析,主权财富基金的战略安排意在为本国金融发展和产业调整寻求战略资源,直接对西方国家的核心竞争力发起了挑战,必然受到国际保护主义的制约。为了主权财富基金的战略得以顺利执行,必须建立国际金融新秩序与国际监管与协调机制。
中国是全球经济失衡的主要盈余方,成立主权财富基金来履行外部财富积极管理,对中国经济内外部平衡有着重要的意义,是基于中国经济总体战略的重要布局。鉴于中国特殊的国际政治与经济地位,如何制定中国主权财富基金对外投资战略是值得深入探讨的问题。本文尝试给出中国外部财富管理战略思路以及中国外汇储备分流机制的初步建议,并尝试对现存的主权财富基金模式与管理进行评价与分析。
本文可能的创新之处:立足于金融角度对全球经济失衡进行分析与阐释,说明全球金融发展的落差是发展中国家与发达国家核心竞争力差异的产物,失衡是必然的并具有长期性。金融全球化已经在很大程度上控制了全球经济发展格局,而外部财富积极管理是新兴经济体金融一体化进程的重要战略,战略的实施有助于长期经济再平衡;采用国际投资头寸(IIP)结构分析框架,结合估值效应,来评价发达国家与新兴经济体外部财富的资产与负债结构与管理效率,评述国际货币体系中美元地位优势、美国长期形成的国际资本中介地位、美国对全球产业链的高端控制所形成的“三位一体”的核心竞争力,以及这种竞争力全球金融市场中的释放和影响,阐明主权财富基金所要面临的挑战与战略选择;本文对资源出口国家与东亚新兴国家的经济做了新角度解读,通过全球石油市场博弈状况,分析美国的美元政策、资源安全政策、跨国公司战略对新兴经济体的制约,说明国际货币体系中的美元特权效应机制,从而说明世界经济关系的金融主导型;对中国外部财富管理进行分析,对中国外汇储备的管理方略与改革方向进行客观评价,提出中国外汇储备分流机制与战略实施步骤。
This paper, focusing on the motives and macro-strategies of SWFs(sovereign wealth funds), makes a research on the interactive relationship between SWFs and GEI (global economic imbalance). Starting from GEI under the globalized financial context, this paper re-interpretes GEI from the perspectives of capital and finance. One obvious financial characteristic of GEI is that the emerging economies have accumulated huge external wealth because of their ever-growing trade surplus. How to manage the sovereign wealth reasonably and effectively has become a common concern for these countries and global financial market. An in-depth analysis on GEI from the perspectives of capital and finance has found that the main reason for the ever-worsening GEI is the mixture between the imbalanced international monetary system and financial globalization. SWF is the result of accumulating international reserves under context of the global imbalance, an important phenomenon of global imbalanced capital and finance, an upgrade and sublimation of how emerging countries manage their sovereign wealth, and a new channel for emerging developing countries to rebalance the global imbalances. The founding and positive management of SWFs can help the internal economic restructure for these emerging developing countries, therefore reduce the degree of imbalance from the international trade surplus side. In international financial markets, SWFs can, through asset allocation strategy, exert a great influence on the pattern of international capital flows, restore the balance of international monetary system, reducing the financing convenience of international capital debit under the international monetary privileges, force major current account deficit countries to adjust their balance of payments, therefore, promote a rebalance and coordinated development for the global economy. In the meantime, this paper analyses the relationship between the main strategy choices of a SWF and the overall national economic strategies, and the strategy choices of a SWF under various economic contexts.
This paper, through an analysis on global economic competitiveness between developed and developing countries and International Investment Position (IIP), argues that imbalance is inevitable given the fact that the financial integration of developed countries has already helped them occupy the financial strategy high grounds. Developing countries cannot change this imbalance and their weak financial position, unless they improve their participation in financial integration and make strategic management and disposition of their external wealth. From the perspective of global economic rebalance, the positive management of SWFs has a great influence on the direction and quantity of international capital flows, nevertheless promotes an optimal allocation of global resources and reduces economic imbalances. At the same time, the global investment of SWFs will also improve the currency internationalization of developing countries and regional monetary integration, reduce the need of international reserves, and help the rebalance of international monetary system. From the financial perspective, the strategic arrangements of a SWF intend to seek strategic resources for the country's financial development and industrial restructuring, thus directly challenge the core competitiveness of Western countries. As a result, it will inevitably be subject to the constraints of international protectionism. To implement smoothly the strategies of SWFs, it is necessary to establish a new international financial order and international supervision and coordination mechanism. China plays a major role in the global economic imbalances. Thus, it is fairly significant for internal and external balance of the Chinese economy that sovereign wealth funds are set up to actively manage the external wealth. Given China 's special international political and economic status, it is worthwhile to have an in-depth exploration on the issue of how to develop foreign investment strategies for China 's sovereign wealth funds.
引文
①DB Research,“Sovereign Wealth Funds:State Investment on the rise”,Sep 10th,2007
②Citibank Research,“Sovereign Wealth Fund:A Growing Global Force”,Oct 18th,2007
③Edwin M. Truman,“Sovereign Wealth Funds:Threat or Salvation”,September 2010
④卢卡斯在1990年对国际资本从富国流向穷国的倾向不足甚至倒流的现象进行分析,认为其违背了新古典经济理论中关于资本边际报酬递减的推断,并给出人力资本异质和溢出效应、发展中国家政治风险和资本市场不完全等解释。
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①Fred Weinberger & Bennett Golub,Asset allocation and risk management for sovereign wealth fund,Sovereign Wealth Management P71,Central Banking Publication Ltd
①2010《中国跨境资金流动检测报告》。
①国际铸币税主要是指长期流动在外的货币对发行国而言相当于无息贷款,利息节约以及通货膨胀引致的实际购买力损失构成铸币税收入。
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①Cooper,2005;宋玉华、陈哲,2002;黄燕君、陈鑫云,2005;毕吉耀,2006。
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①这种研究在2000年以前的美国实践中得到了较好的验证。
①按照BOP6,直接投资指与总股本占比达10%以上的投资,10%以下的计入组合投资中的股本投资。
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①指20世纪60年代之后的韩国、新加坡、中国台湾、中国香港等亚洲高速发展经济体,即“Newly Industrial Economics”。
①1960-1997年新加坡、香港外汇储备增长状况。
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①21世纪初,由于核问题谈判僵持,伊朗受到安理会的经济制裁以及美国主持的金融制裁,把原油出口贸易的结算币种从美元变为欧元与日元。
②2007年科威特宣布脱离美元采用一篮子货币加权汇率。
①26个成员国包括:澳大利亚、阿塞拜疆、巴林、博茨瓦纳、加拿大、智利、中国、赤道几内亚、伊朗、爱尔兰、韩国、科威特、利比亚、墨西哥、新西兰、挪威、卡塔尔、俄罗斯、新加坡、东帝汶、特立尼达和多巴哥、阿联酋、美国
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82肖莹莹、杨明:《欧美国家对主权财富基金态度冷热不一》,《经济参考报》,2007年8月13日第3版。
83谢平、陈超:《论主权财富基金的理论逻辑》,《经济研究》,2009年第2期。
84谢太峰:《辩证看待增加黄金储备》,《金融博览》,2009年第6期。
85杨博:《全球主权财富基金资产缩水20%》,《中国证券报》,2009年7月23日第A05版。
86杨博:《全球主权基金开始“抱团”投资》,《中国证券报》,2009年8月21日第A07版。
87叶楠:《挪威主权财富基金运作对我国的启示》,《新金融》,2008年第9期。
88袁朝晖:《SWFs得失榜》,《经济观察报》,2009年8月17日第8版。
89袁境、白煜:《“淡马锡”模式与中国国资管理机构的角色定位》,《经济体制改革》,2006年第5期。
90张光红、王坤、吴航:《中国投资有限责任公司海外投资案例分析》,《改革与战略》,2009年第1期。
91张明:《高外汇储备难以承受之重》,《第一财经日报》,2005年5月31日,第A02版。
92张明:《论次贷危机对中国主权财富基金带来的机遇与挑战》,《国际经济评论》,2008年第3期。
93张明:《面对指责,中投公司的策略》,《西部论丛》,2007年第11期。
94张明:《现在是参股国际金融机构好时机吗》,《第一财经日报》,2007年12月12日第A07版。
95张明:《主权财富基金与中投公司》,《经济社会体制比较》,2008年第2期。
96张世贤,徐雪:《我国主权财富基金的投资方向选择问题——基于国家利益原则的战略视角》,《中国工业经济》,2009年第7期。
97张晓声、朱战勇:《主权财富基金形成、演进及评价——兼论中国主权财富之完善》,《市场周刊》,2007年第12期。
98张毅、刘媛媛:《国外主权财富基金管理的做法及启示》,《经济纵横》,2008年第5期。
99张毅峣:《我国主权财富基金如何规避投资风险》,《金融时报》,2008年1月26日第8版。
100张占奎、王熙、刘戒骄:《新加坡淡马锡的治理及其启示》,《经济管理》,2007年第2期。
101张志华:《人民银行巨额外汇储备的经济性质及其出路》,《财经科学》,2009年第12期。
102章志平:《主权财富基金发展的原因与对策》,《北方经贸》,2009年第2期。
103赵小平:《主权财富基金开展对外投资所面临的外部投资环境和中国的对策》,《财贸经济》2009年第6期。
104郑秉文:《俄罗斯创建“国家福利基金”的启示》,《中国证券报》,2008年1月30日第A05版。
105郑凌云:《2007年主权财富基金境外投资概况及2008年展望》,《国际金融研究》,2008年第6期。
106智恩:《中投25亿购世界知名酒商股权》,《中国工业报》,2009年8月5日第B02版。
107钟伟:《从SWF看中国国家外汇投资公司的定位》,《中国发展观察》,2007年第9期。
108周昌松:《主权财富基金管理8点建议》,《中国投资》,2008年第10期。
109周学海:《主权财富基金的兴起与争论》,《国际论坛》,2008年第1期。
110朱颖,徐丽芳:《全球主权财富基金的兴起和西方主要国家的反应》,《金融教学与研究》,2008年第3期。
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②Citibank Research,“Sovereign Wealth Fund:A Growing Global Force”,Oct 18th,2007
③Edwin M. Truman,“Sovereign Wealth Funds:Threat or Salvation”,September 2010
④卢卡斯在1990年对国际资本从富国流向穷国的倾向不足甚至倒流的现象进行分析,认为其违背了新古典经济理论中关于资本边际报酬递减的推断,并给出人力资本异质和溢出效应、发展中国家政治风险和资本市场不完全等解释。
①《Asset-liability Management in Emerging Economic》,英国中央银行出版局,2007。
①“Sovereign Wealth Fund:Stylized Facts About Their Determinant and Governnace”,NBER Working Paper 14562,2008”
①Fred Weinberger & Bennett Golub,Asset allocation and risk management for sovereign wealth fund,Sovereign Wealth Management P71,Central Banking Publication Ltd
①2010《中国跨境资金流动检测报告》。
①国际铸币税主要是指长期流动在外的货币对发行国而言相当于无息贷款,利息节约以及通货膨胀引致的实际购买力损失构成铸币税收入。
①马先仙:《美国经常项目逆差研究》,西南财经大学出版社,2010年5月。
①Cooper,2005;宋玉华、陈哲,2002;黄燕君、陈鑫云,2005;毕吉耀,2006。
②Roubini和Setser,2004;施建淮,2006;姚枝仲,2003。
①陈红、何德旭,《全球经济失衡、主权财富基金与金融稳定》,环球金融2009年第10期。
①这种研究在2000年以前的美国实践中得到了较好的验证。
①按照BOP6,直接投资指与总股本占比达10%以上的投资,10%以下的计入组合投资中的股本投资。
①《主权财富基金:金融危机冲击下的新发展与监管运作新框架》,河北经贸大学学报,2009年第9期
①指20世纪60年代之后的韩国、新加坡、中国台湾、中国香港等亚洲高速发展经济体,即“Newly Industrial Economics”。
①1960-1997年新加坡、香港外汇储备增长状况。
①许少强，《美元霸权:生存基础、影响和我国的对策》，复旦学报社科版，2005年第4期
①殷剑锋:美国居民低储蓄率之谜和美元的信用危机,金融评论,2009创刊号
①Susan Strange,国家与市场,上海世纪出版集团,2006
①Robert Triffin,the International Role and Fate of the Dollar,Foreign Affairs,1978
①21世纪初,由于核问题谈判僵持,伊朗受到安理会的经济制裁以及美国主持的金融制裁,把原油出口贸易的结算币种从美元变为欧元与日元。
②2007年科威特宣布脱离美元采用一篮子货币加权汇率。
①26个成员国包括:澳大利亚、阿塞拜疆、巴林、博茨瓦纳、加拿大、智利、中国、赤道几内亚、伊朗、爱尔兰、韩国、科威特、利比亚、墨西哥、新西兰、挪威、卡塔尔、俄罗斯、新加坡、东帝汶、特立尼达和多巴哥、阿联酋、美国
②GAPP中译本,IMF主权财富基金国际工作组,2008年10月。
1 [英]李籁思,《全球主权财富基金逆势扩容》,《商务周刊》,巫晓丹、杨岩春译,2009年09期。
2巴曙松:《巨额外汇储备需要更多投资渠道》,《中国证券报》,2005年10月25日。
3包颉,侯建明:《中国主权财富基金的挑战与对策》,《上海金融》,2009年第2期。
4曹红辉:《人民币国际化图景》,《瞭望新闻周刊》,2007年第47期。
5曹伊:《中投公司面临的挑战及对策》,《辽宁工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2008年第4期。
6陈超:《主权财富基金未来发展面临五大挑战》,《上海证券报》,2008年5月8日第A08版。
7陈红,何德旭:《全球经济失衡,主权财富基金与金融稳定》,《国际金融研究》,2009年第12期。
8陈佳:《SWFs的发展争议及对中国的启示》,《现代商业》,2008年第14期。
9陈竞:《中投公司投资策略分析》,《金融视点》,2008年第10期。
10陈克宁:《论主权财富基金的监管及对中国的借鉴》,《上海金融》,2008年第7期。
11陈平:《新加坡外汇储备积极管理的启示》,《大连海事大学学报》,2006年第4期。
12陈双庆:《海湾国家主权财富基金的发展现状及趋势》,《国际资料信息》,2008年第8期。
13陈支农:《主权基金重塑国际投资版图》,《百姓》,2008年第1期。
14褚臻:《浅析我国主权财富基金发展策略问题》,《财经论坛》,2008年第7期。
15崔梦婷,陈良:《主权财富基金研究综述》,《金融发展研究》,2010年第5期。
16都父:《主权财富基金的暗战》,《国际融资》,2008年第1期。
17高健:《巴克莱遭遇主权基金“战略撤退”》,《中国证券报》,2009年6月6日第A11版。
18高进水、张燕燕:《我国当前外汇储备规模的适度性判断》,《经济研究参考》,2006年第91期。
19高焰辉:《中国外汇储备超常增长的剖析》,《中国证券期货》,2008年第1期。
20戈登斯坦、特纳:《货币错配》,李扬,曾刚译,社会科学文献出版社2005年版。
21谷源洋:《从动态视角关注南北差距的变化》,《中国社会科学院院报》,2008年7月8日第2版。
22关雪凌、刘西:《全球主权财富基金:现状,原因与影响》,《中国人民大学学报》,2008年第5期。
23韩继云:《加强外汇资源资合利用,缓解外汇储备高增长局面》,《宏观经济管理》,2006年第5期。
24何帆:《外汇储备的积极管理:新加坡、挪威的经验与启示》,《国际金融研究》,2006年第6期。
25何小锋、毕成、窦尔翔:《国家主权财富基金的风险分析及对策》,《长白学刊》,2009年第1期。
26黄梅波、熊爱宗:《全球主权财富基金的发展经验与启示》,《国际论坛》,2008年第3期。
27解正山:《主权财富基金投资法律环境新变化——评IMF“圣地亚哥原则”》,《江西财经大学学报》,2009年第3期。
28可小锋、窦尔翔、孔祥鑫:《全球主权财富基金的现状与未来》,《资本市场》,2009年第5期。
29黎兵:《试析中国主权财富基金》,《上海金融》,2007年第10期。
30李华:《活在通货膨胀时代》,《杂文月刊(选刊版)》,2008年第6期。
31李建民:《俄罗斯主权财富基金管理评析》,《国际经济评论》,2008年第2期。
32李俊江、范硕:《论主权财富基金的兴起及其对国际金融体系的影响》,《当代亚太》,2008年第4期。
33李素琴:《中国外汇储备过剩的原因、负效应及其对策》,《新金融》,2006年第12期。
34李祥为:《主权财富基金的发展与国家权力建设》,《世界经济研究》,2009年第11期。
35李笑峰、王澎:《从淡马锡模式谈中国国有投资战略》,《产权导刊》,2008年第2期。
36李笑峰、王澎:《从淡马锡模式谈中国国有投资战略》,《产权导刊》,2008年第2期。
37李娅、赵俊燕:《主权基金———中投公司运营模式选择》,《金融与保险》,2009年第1期。
38李运达、洪功翔:《1.55万亿特别国债的宏观经济效应简论》,《长江论坛》,2008年第1期。
39李振勤:《外汇储备剧增之后的问题与对策》,《中国经济周刊》,2005年第18期。
40刘昊虹:《我国主权财富基金投资的发展对策》,《经济导刊》,2008年第4期。
41刘新英:《主权财富基金的兴起及对我国的启示》,《宏观经济研究》,2008年第8期。
42楼继伟:《操盘国家主权财富基金》,《银行家》,2008年第1期。
43卢锋:《中国国际收支双顺差现象研究:对中国外汇储备突破万亿美元的理论思考》,《世界经济》,2006年第11期。
44罗勇:《关注主权财富基金的影响》,《中国金融》,2009年第11期。
45吕明、叶眉:《主权财富基金信息透明度问题研究》,《广东金融学院学报》,2008年第5期。
46马冰:《主权财富基金的发展与中国的应对策略》,《福建金融》,2009年第4期。
47美国财政部:《“华盛顿约定”为SWFs投资松绑?》,《中国对外贸易》,2008年第4期。
48苗迎春:《主权财富基金的对外投资与中国海外利益的维护》,《中国发展观察》,2009年第2期。
49潘广云:《俄罗斯主权财富基金改组及其国际比较》,《国际论坛》,2008年第5期。
50裴平:《国际金融学(第三版)》,南京大学出版社2006年版。
51戚苏宁:《淡马锡的启示》,《决策》,2010年第1期。
52秦永法:《淡马锡公司治理及启示》,《董事会》,2008年第5期。
53任飞:《浅析我国外汇储备的规模及管理对策》,《黑龙江对外经贸》,2008年第8期。
54任熹真、刘永芝:《我国国家主权财富基金运营的困难与对策分析》,《中国流通经济》,2009年第10期。
55史蒂芬?科恩:《主权财富基金及其对外投资政策的最新情况》,《德意志银行研究报告》,国务院发展研究中心信息网编译,2008年12月1日。
56史美霖:《经济全球化下跨国资本流动的新趋势与对策》,《商业研究》,2007年第3期。
57史美霖:《经济全球化下跨国资本流动的新趋势与对策》,《商业研究》,2007年第3期。
58宋国友:《主权财富基金的兴起与美国金融霸权》,《现代国际关系》,2007年第9期。
59宋玉华、李锋:《主权财富基金的发展及对21世纪初世界经济的影响》,《经济理论与经济管理》,2008年第1期。
60苏俊:《论IMF圣地亚哥原则对我国主权财富基金立法的借鉴》,《中国外资》,2008年第12期。
61陶冬:《为外汇储备找个“好婆家”》,《金融博览》,2006年第5期。
62陶士贵:《人民币对外币的“货币反替代”问题探讨》,《广东金融学院学报》,2007年第6期。
63汪时锋:《希望能坚持OECD一贯倡导的自由市场原则》,《第一财经日报》,2008年3月31日第A08版。
64汪时锋:《主权财富基金:国家财富增值新路径》,《金融博览》,2007年第12期。
65王翠:《外汇储备过多蕴藏多少风险》,《经济论坛》,2005年第4期。
66王光宇:《外汇储备:难以承受之重》,《银行家》,2007年第2期。
67王宏玮、熊平安:《IMF双边监督新<决定>的影响》,《银行家》,2008年第1期。
68王宏玮、熊平安:《IMF双边监督新<决定>的影响》,《银行家》,2008年第1期。
69王慧卿:《主权财富基金引发欧美“收购恐惧症”》,《第一财经日报》,2007年7月13日第A06版。
70王健君:《主权财富基金中国“入场”》,《瞭望》,2007年第28期。
71王敬花,何铁林:《从中国投资公司的成立看对外汇储备认识的误区》,《哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2008年第3期。
72王水林:《理解主权财富基金》,《财经》,2009年第7期。
73王铁山、郭根龙、冯宗宪:《主权财富基金的兴起及我国的对策》,《经济纵横》,2007年第15期。
74王谢勇、孙毅:《证券投资基金的风险分析及控制》,《大连大学学报》2001年第1期。
75王宇:《金融危机冲击下国际资本流动的分析和预测》,《中国经济时报》,2009年6月9日,第11版。
76王志刚:《主权财富基金法律问题研究》,《江西金融职工大学学报》,2008年第4期。
77威廉·米拉奇:《主权财富基金与风险共舞》,《财经》,2008年第8期。
78魏本华:《对主权财富基金不应有歧视性待遇》,《第一财经日报》,2008年1月7日第A06版。
79殷剑锋:《美国居民低储蓄率之谜和美元的信用危机》,《金融评论》,2009年12月10日创刊号
80魏本华:《全球外汇市场、储备管理与主权财富基金》,《财经界》,2008年第1期。
81吴瑞超:《主权财富基金的发展趋势及我国的对策》,《中国商界》,2009年第10期。
82肖莹莹、杨明:《欧美国家对主权财富基金态度冷热不一》,《经济参考报》,2007年8月13日第3版。
83谢平、陈超:《论主权财富基金的理论逻辑》,《经济研究》,2009年第2期。
84谢太峰:《辩证看待增加黄金储备》,《金融博览》,2009年第6期。
85杨博:《全球主权财富基金资产缩水20%》,《中国证券报》,2009年7月23日第A05版。
86杨博:《全球主权基金开始“抱团”投资》,《中国证券报》,2009年8月21日第A07版。
87叶楠:《挪威主权财富基金运作对我国的启示》,《新金融》,2008年第9期。
88袁朝晖:《SWFs得失榜》,《经济观察报》,2009年8月17日第8版。
89袁境、白煜:《“淡马锡”模式与中国国资管理机构的角色定位》,《经济体制改革》,2006年第5期。
90张光红、王坤、吴航:《中国投资有限责任公司海外投资案例分析》,《改革与战略》,2009年第1期。
91张明:《高外汇储备难以承受之重》,《第一财经日报》,2005年5月31日,第A02版。
92张明:《论次贷危机对中国主权财富基金带来的机遇与挑战》,《国际经济评论》,2008年第3期。
93张明:《面对指责,中投公司的策略》,《西部论丛》,2007年第11期。
94张明:《现在是参股国际金融机构好时机吗》,《第一财经日报》,2007年12月12日第A07版。
95张明:《主权财富基金与中投公司》,《经济社会体制比较》,2008年第2期。
96张世贤,徐雪:《我国主权财富基金的投资方向选择问题——基于国家利益原则的战略视角》,《中国工业经济》,2009年第7期。
97张晓声、朱战勇:《主权财富基金形成、演进及评价——兼论中国主权财富之完善》,《市场周刊》,2007年第12期。
98张毅、刘媛媛:《国外主权财富基金管理的做法及启示》,《经济纵横》,2008年第5期。
99张毅峣:《我国主权财富基金如何规避投资风险》,《金融时报》,2008年1月26日第8版。
100张占奎、王熙、刘戒骄:《新加坡淡马锡的治理及其启示》,《经济管理》,2007年第2期。
101张志华:《人民银行巨额外汇储备的经济性质及其出路》,《财经科学》,2009年第12期。
102章志平:《主权财富基金发展的原因与对策》,《北方经贸》,2009年第2期。
103赵小平:《主权财富基金开展对外投资所面临的外部投资环境和中国的对策》,《财贸经济》2009年第6期。
104郑秉文:《俄罗斯创建“国家福利基金”的启示》,《中国证券报》,2008年1月30日第A05版。
105郑凌云:《2007年主权财富基金境外投资概况及2008年展望》,《国际金融研究》,2008年第6期。
106智恩:《中投25亿购世界知名酒商股权》,《中国工业报》,2009年8月5日第B02版。
107钟伟:《从SWF看中国国家外汇投资公司的定位》,《中国发展观察》,2007年第9期。
108周昌松:《主权财富基金管理8点建议》,《中国投资》,2008年第10期。
109周学海:《主权财富基金的兴起与争论》,《国际论坛》,2008年第1期。
110朱颖,徐丽芳:《全球主权财富基金的兴起和西方主要国家的反应》,《金融教学与研究》,2008年第3期。
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