长期低利率政策的经济影响
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摘要
利率在经济系统中是一个重要的变量,目前世界各国频繁运用利率杠杆实施宏观调控,利率政策已成为各国中央银行调控经济的主要手段。目前,面对严重的金融危机,各主要经济体都有实行长期低利率政策的倾向,其中日本的长期低利率政策实行时间更长,也更严格。因此本文以日本为例研究长期低利率政策对经济造成的影响。本文认为日本利率管制下长期低利率政策是确实存在的,并且系统研究了长期低利率政策对经济各方面造成的影响。包括对储蓄、投资、产出、和房地产行业的影响。在此基础上,提出了长期低利率政策不会提高储蓄率、会降低投资效率、会促使以房地产为代表的资产价格上升等结论与启示,并据此提出了政策建议。
论文共分为五个部分：第一部分为导论,包括文章的研究背景与选题意义,论文的主要思路、研究的创新点与难点等问题。第二部分是理论综述,介绍国内外关于利率和长期低利率理论的文献综述。第三部分是关于长期低利率政策经济影响的理论研究,采用新古典可贷资金利率理论分析出低利率政策会造成资本供应不足与信贷配给,使用IS-LM模型分析出低利率政策将会使产出大于均衡水平并造成货币供给不足,还使用房地产四象限模型分析出利率管制条件下地产价格将高于均衡水平。第四部分通过分析日本近50年来的利率状况并与美国进行对比证明了长期低利率政策的存在,然后介绍低利率政策在日本的经济影响。从长期低利率政策对日本储蓄、投资、产出以及资本价格等几个方面进行研究,得出利率政策对储蓄率无明显影响,会促进投资,对产出有促进作用但会受消费制约,会提高资本价格等结论。第五部分是对长期低利率政策经济影响的启示与政策建议,包括注意保持利率政策的灵活性、要注意经济政策对银行系统的影响、要防止泡沫经济的产生等。在此基础上提出了作者的政策建议,即要保持利率政策的灵活性、要注意利率政策对银行系统的影响、要注意长期低利率政策对产出与消费的影响,要防止经济泡沫的产生等。
本文认为日本1965～1985年间存在利率管制并且整体上低于均衡利率水平,这与以郝尔曼为代表的学者看法不同,他们认为日本在泡沫经济之前的利率水平始终未显著低于国际水平,却忽视了美国也通过Q字条款进行了利率管制的现实。就日本而言,长期低利率政策对储蓄率无明显影响但会造成投资大于储蓄,同时会导致产出大于均衡水平和较高的土地价格。这些结论给包括中国在内的世界主要国家实施低利率政策提供了重要参考。
Interest rate is an important variable in the economic system. As countries around the world often use the current interest rate policy to control economy, the interest rate policy has become the primary means of central banks to regulate the economy. At present, to fight serious economic crisis, the major economies have the tendency of adopting long-term low interest rate policy. Among these countries, Japan's long-term low interest rate policy was longer and stricter. Therefore, this article studies the long-term low interest rate policy's impact on the economy, with Japan as an example.
This paper believes that long-term low interest rate policy really existed in Japan under interest rate controls, and reseaches the impact of long-term low interest rate policy on all aspects of the economy, including the impact on savings, investment, output, and real estate industry. On this basis, Author proposes that long-term low interest rate policies will not increase the savings rate, will reduce the efficiency of investment, and will raise the price of assets represented by real estate,etc.And this artice proposes some suggestion.
This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the Introduction, including the article's background and significance, paper's main ideas, innovation points and difficulties, and so on. The second part is the overview of the theory, giving an overview of domestic and international long-term low interest theory. The third part is about the theoretical study of impact of low interest rate policy on economy. It concludes that low interest rate policy will result in inadequate supply of capital and credit.The fourth part proves the existence of long-term low interest rate policy through the analysis of Japanese interest rates for nearly 50 years, and comparation with the United States. Then, It introduces the influence of the low interest rate policy in Japan, and finds that the rate policy has no significant effect on the savings rate, will promote investment and production restricted by consumption, and raise the price of assest, from the study on the impact of the long-term low interest rate policy on Japanese savings, investment, output and capital prices, and so on. Part V is the enlightenment and political advice of economic impact of the long-term low interest rate policy, including the reservation of the flexibility of interest rate policy, the attention to the economic policies' effect on banking system, and prevention of the bubble economy, and so on. The author puts forward her policy recommendations, that is, keeping the flexibility of interest rate policy, paying attention to the impact of long-term low rate policy on output and consumption, and preventing the emergence of economic bubble and so on.
This article believes that there was rate control in Japan from 1965 to 1985,and the rate was overall lower than the equilibrium rate. This is different from some Scholars'point represented by Herman. They thought the rate before the bubble economy was obviously lower than the international rate, but they had ignored the reality of rate control through the Q Terms. With Japan as an example, the long-term low rate policy had no significant effect on savings, but it had made investment higher than savings, and led the output higher than the equilibrium and higher price of real estate. All these conclusions provide reference of adopting low rate policy to many main contries in the world, including China.
论文共分为五个部分：第一部分为导论,包括文章的研究背景与选题意义,论文的主要思路、研究的创新点与难点等问题。第二部分是理论综述,介绍国内外关于利率和长期低利率理论的文献综述。第三部分是关于长期低利率政策经济影响的理论研究,采用新古典可贷资金利率理论分析出低利率政策会造成资本供应不足与信贷配给,使用IS-LM模型分析出低利率政策将会使产出大于均衡水平并造成货币供给不足,还使用房地产四象限模型分析出利率管制条件下地产价格将高于均衡水平。第四部分通过分析日本近50年来的利率状况并与美国进行对比证明了长期低利率政策的存在,然后介绍低利率政策在日本的经济影响。从长期低利率政策对日本储蓄、投资、产出以及资本价格等几个方面进行研究,得出利率政策对储蓄率无明显影响,会促进投资,对产出有促进作用但会受消费制约,会提高资本价格等结论。第五部分是对长期低利率政策经济影响的启示与政策建议,包括注意保持利率政策的灵活性、要注意经济政策对银行系统的影响、要防止泡沫经济的产生等。在此基础上提出了作者的政策建议,即要保持利率政策的灵活性、要注意利率政策对银行系统的影响、要注意长期低利率政策对产出与消费的影响,要防止经济泡沫的产生等。
本文认为日本1965～1985年间存在利率管制并且整体上低于均衡利率水平,这与以郝尔曼为代表的学者看法不同,他们认为日本在泡沫经济之前的利率水平始终未显著低于国际水平,却忽视了美国也通过Q字条款进行了利率管制的现实。就日本而言,长期低利率政策对储蓄率无明显影响但会造成投资大于储蓄,同时会导致产出大于均衡水平和较高的土地价格。这些结论给包括中国在内的世界主要国家实施低利率政策提供了重要参考。
Interest rate is an important variable in the economic system. As countries around the world often use the current interest rate policy to control economy, the interest rate policy has become the primary means of central banks to regulate the economy. At present, to fight serious economic crisis, the major economies have the tendency of adopting long-term low interest rate policy. Among these countries, Japan's long-term low interest rate policy was longer and stricter. Therefore, this article studies the long-term low interest rate policy's impact on the economy, with Japan as an example.
This paper believes that long-term low interest rate policy really existed in Japan under interest rate controls, and reseaches the impact of long-term low interest rate policy on all aspects of the economy, including the impact on savings, investment, output, and real estate industry. On this basis, Author proposes that long-term low interest rate policies will not increase the savings rate, will reduce the efficiency of investment, and will raise the price of assets represented by real estate,etc.And this artice proposes some suggestion.
This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the Introduction, including the article's background and significance, paper's main ideas, innovation points and difficulties, and so on. The second part is the overview of the theory, giving an overview of domestic and international long-term low interest theory. The third part is about the theoretical study of impact of low interest rate policy on economy. It concludes that low interest rate policy will result in inadequate supply of capital and credit.The fourth part proves the existence of long-term low interest rate policy through the analysis of Japanese interest rates for nearly 50 years, and comparation with the United States. Then, It introduces the influence of the low interest rate policy in Japan, and finds that the rate policy has no significant effect on the savings rate, will promote investment and production restricted by consumption, and raise the price of assest, from the study on the impact of the long-term low interest rate policy on Japanese savings, investment, output and capital prices, and so on. Part V is the enlightenment and political advice of economic impact of the long-term low interest rate policy, including the reservation of the flexibility of interest rate policy, the attention to the economic policies' effect on banking system, and prevention of the bubble economy, and so on. The author puts forward her policy recommendations, that is, keeping the flexibility of interest rate policy, paying attention to the impact of long-term low rate policy on output and consumption, and preventing the emergence of economic bubble and so on.
This article believes that there was rate control in Japan from 1965 to 1985,and the rate was overall lower than the equilibrium rate. This is different from some Scholars'point represented by Herman. They thought the rate before the bubble economy was obviously lower than the international rate, but they had ignored the reality of rate control through the Q Terms. With Japan as an example, the long-term low rate policy had no significant effect on savings, but it had made investment higher than savings, and led the output higher than the equilibrium and higher price of real estate. All these conclusions provide reference of adopting low rate policy to many main contries in the world, including China.
引文
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②流动性,就是指各种资产在不损害其原有价值的条件下,变换为货币的难易程度。
③牛建高,金融学[M].东南大学出版社,2005.
①托玛斯·赫尔曼,凯文·穆尔多克,约瑟夫、斯蒂格利茨.金融约束：一个新的分析框架[J].经济导刊.1997年05期.
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②流动性,就是指各种资产在不损害其原有价值的条件下,变换为货币的难易程度。
③牛建高,金融学[M].东南大学出版社,2005.
①托玛斯·赫尔曼,凯文·穆尔多克,约瑟夫、斯蒂格利茨.金融约束：一个新的分析框架[J].经济导刊.1997年05期.
[1]M.Aoki,H.Kim and M.Okuno-Fujiwara. The Role of Government in East Asian Economic Development [J]. Oxford,1997.
[2]Stiglitz, Weiss.A. Credit Rationing in Market with Imperfect Information[J], American Economic Review,71 (June),1981.
[3]Borio, Claudio E.V. The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Industrial Countries:A Survey[J]. Economic Paper no47, Bank for International Settlements, 1997.
[4]Alessndro Vercelli. The Evolution of IS-LM Model:Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Presupposition[J]. Journal of Economic Methodology, Feb.1999.
[5]Andrew B. Albel and Olivier Blanchard. An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment[J], Mar.1983.
[6]Bennett T. Mccallum and Edward Nelson. An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis. Journal of money, credit and banking, Aug.1999.
[7]Abraham-L and.Patrice-P.General.Equilibrium Realand Nominal Interest Rates[J]. Journal of Banking&Finance,2004,28(7).
[8]Campell,johny and N-gregory mankiw. Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence[M].NBER Macroeconomics Annual,1989(4).
[9]Clarida-Richard and Mark Gertker. How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy,in Reducing Inflation:Motivation and Strategy [M].Chicago:University of ChicagoPress,1997.
[10]David·Romer. Keynesian Macroeconomics Without The LM Curve[M].NBER Macroeconomics Annual,2000(3).
[11]Keynes·john M.The General Theory of Employment, Interest[M].New York,1936.
[12]Brock,P.L. Reserve requirements and the inflation tax[J]. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, vol.21(February),1989.
[13]Giovannini A. and De Melo, M.. Government revenue from financial repression[J], American Economic Review, vol.83 (September),1993.
[14]Maxwell J. Fry. In favour of financial liberalization, The Economic Journal, Vol.107, No.442.(May).1997
[15]McKinnon,R.I. Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.1973.
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