中国房地产金融风险判断及防范体系架构研究
摘要
房地产业是国民经济的重要部门,其兴衰直接关系到国民经济的兴衰;房地产业又是一个高投入、高风险、高收益的资本密集型产业,对金融资本的依赖度很高,离开适宜而充分的金融支持,房地产业很难有长足的发展。因此,房地产金融的发展对一国房地产经济乃至整个国民经济的发展具有重要作用。
在研究思路上,本研究以马克思主义的基本理论和分析方法为指导,吸收和借鉴西方房地产金融风险及其防范理论与政策措施的合理内核,分析世界各国房地产金融发展的历史与现状、前景和趋势,研究不同类型国家房地产金融模式及其风险形式的形成过程、特点以及对国民经济发展的影响,探讨房地产金融发展模式、房地产金融风险形式、房地产金融风险的防范体系及其内在关系形成发展的一般规律。在此基础上,立足中国房地产金融发展的实际,对中国房地产金融业的发展现状及其在国民经济发展中的贡献率作出合理的评价,对中国房地产金融风险作出科学判断,积极借鉴世界各国发展房地产金融、防范房地产金融风险、促进房地产经济发展的先进经验,提出现阶段中国房地产金融发展的目标模式和防范房地产金融风险的框架体系,力求提高中国房地产金融业抵御金融风险或危机的能力,推动中国房地产经济持续健康发展。
在基本结构上,本研究分为四个部分,共八章。
第一部分,房地产金融风险理论概述(第1—2章):解读房地产金融及其风险理论。本研究认为风险是指事物发展的不确定性及其导致的改变,当改变不利于事物的正常发展时,事物的受益者就承担了更多的损失,即风险损失。从一般意义上说,融资渠道单一、信息不对称、抵押物风险、投机行为、银行违规操作等是造成房地产金融风险损失的内部原因,而国家政策及法规的变化、国际经济动荡导致的汇率变动及本国利率变动等则是造成房地产金融风险损失的外部原因。那么,合理确定房地产金融发展模式、健全房地产金融风险控制体系,就成为规避内部风险和防范外部影响的基本途径。
第二部分,国外房地产金融发展概况(第3章、第6章):研究世界各国房地产金融发展模式及房地产金融风险的防范措施。本研究通过对各国房地产金融风险的考察以及对房地产金融风险的危害分析,总结出房地产金融风险的形成机理,即银行的过度参与、宽松的金融环境、政策控制力的薄弱、国际资本流动的影响等因素交互作用的结果,分析比较了国际房地产泡沫的形成框架,得到了有效的政策经验,即稳定汇率、合理应用利率工具、严格控制银行贷款、实行多头并举的管理措施等等
第三部分,中国房地产金融发展现状与风险判断(第4—5章):明析中国房地产金融发展的现状,对房地产金融风险作出判断。本研究认为,中国房地产金融发展经历了起步、停滞萎缩、恢复发展、调整发展四个时期以后,目前业已步入规范发展时期。尤其是2004年以来,与房地产开发建设增幅回落、房地产市场的供求关系得到改善、房屋销售价格上涨较快、住宅供应结构性问题凸现、投资性购房需求增长较快、境外资金进入热点地区房地产市场、已出让存量土地没有及时得到开发等房地产市场情况相适应,中国房地产金融发展呈现房地产投资到位资金增幅下降、房地产贷款增幅较大、开发商贷款增幅减缓、个人购房贷款维持高增长、个人购房贷款集中于少数重点城市和热点地区、政策性住房贷款快速增长等特点,存在房价大幅攀升,需求依然旺盛;融资渠道单一,风险相对集中;金融市场结构单一,金融市场体系残缺;市场监管不得力,调控机制不完善等问题。中国房地产金融出现了地区性风险的苗头,个人房贷风险不大,开发贷款风险已经释放,个别银行风险较大,政府土地储备开发风险最大。研究结论就是:中国房地产金融风险确实存在,但并未“挟持”国家金融和经济,是否转变为危机依赖于国民经济整体的运行状况。
第四部分,中国房地产金融发展目标模式与风险防范体系架构(第7—8章):探讨中国房地产金融发展的目标模式和风险防范体系。本研究认为,房地产投资信托基金(Real Estate Investment Trusts,简称REITs)是当今世界房地产金融发展的主流模式。该模式是一种以发行收益凭证的方式汇集特定多数投资者的资金,由专门投资机构进行投资经营管理,并将投资综合收益按比例分配给投资者的一种信托基金制度。在我国,发展房地产投资信托基金产品具有相当的可行性。一是REITs在国外交易所成功上市的经验可供借鉴;二是有50多家房地产上市公司的经营和监管经验可供借鉴,为REITs产品的设计提供参考依据;三是REITs的上市流程和交易规则与普通上市公司的规定基本一致,实施成本较低;四是目前从事房地产开发的企业已有29000多家,可以成为发展REITs产品的主要资源。由于我国目前的法律制度对发展公司型和信托型的REITs有难以突破的限制,本研究主张采取契约型投资基金的模式发展我国REITs产品,即上市房地产基金(Listed Property Funds-LPFs)。它可以为房地产业提供银行外的一个融资方式,有助降低因过份依赖银行贷款而带来的系统风险。
从中国房地产金融发展目标模式的要求出发,本研究提出了适应世界经济全球化发展趋势和中国房地产金融发展的风险防范体系。一是根据国际经验和我国的国情,构建新型房地产金融体系,包括十大系统:法律系统、监管系统金融机构系统、资金营运系统、担保或保险系统、个人征信系统、二级市场系统、证券系统、物业资金管理系统、政府补贴系统。二是变传统的银行防范房贷风险的控制机制(垂直型监控体系)为新型的银行防范房贷风险的控制机制(扁平型网络化监控体系)。三是建立保证房地产经济安全的政府控管体系,包括政府控管的目标系统和政府控管的工具系统。四是构建房地产金融风险控制体系:注重研究房地产市场发展趋势,防范系统性风险;深化金融体制改革,创新金融品种,开发避险工具;建立健全风险控制机制,严格控制操作性风险;加快法制建设进程,遏制房地产金融业务的外部风险。
论文的创新点,主要表现在以下四个方面:第一,论文试图对房地产金融风险理论做出新概括。通过对房地产金融及风险理论的回顾,理清了房地产金融与房地产经济发展的互动关系,深入分析了房地产金融风险的基本类型及其形成要素,进而概括总结了房地产金融风险形成的宏观机制和微观机制,为我国房地产金融风险的判断和防范奠定了理论基础。第二,论文试图对中国房地产金融发展的目标模式做出新概括。论文通过对房地产金融业发展的历史分析,从房地产金融业发展的国别角度,提出了房地产金融业发展的四种模式,即美国模式、德国模式、新加坡模式、韩国模式,揭示了房地产金融业发展的一般规律,为确立中国房地产金融发展的目标模式提供了国外的实践借鉴。第三,论文试图对中国当前房地产金融风险作出科学判断。论文运用西方房地产金融及风险决定理论,分析了中国房地产金融发展的历史、现状,在肯定房地产金融对中国房地产经济乃至国民经济发展作出重大贡献的基础上,指出了中国房地产金融发展中的主要问题及其形成的原因,并据此对中国房地产金融风险作出了科学判断。论文指出,中国房地产金融具有明显的脆弱性,历史上的金融风险对房地产经济的危害重大;现实的房地产金融泡沫成分巨大,存在明显的风险隐患,任由其累积,必然爆发严重危机。上述判断,对于认清中国房地产金融发展的现实具有一定的指导性意义,进而为房地产金融风险防范体系的架构提供理论依据。第四,论文试图对中国防范房地产金融风险的体系提出新架构。论文以中国当前房地产金融风险的科学判断为依据,从中国房地产金融发展的目标模式的要求出发,创见性地提出了适应世界经济全球化发展趋势和中国房地产金融发展的风险防范体系。该体系注重内在的逻辑性和系统性,体现了城乡互动、产业互动的原则,反映了国内经济发展与对外开放统筹兼顾的科学发展观的要求,在理论上有所创新,在实践上具有现实的可操作性。
Realty Industry is an important section of national economy. Its rise and fall effects national economy’s directly. Realty industry is a high-input, high-risk and high-yield capital intensive industry as well. It highly reckons on financial capital, if it departs from the support of appropriate and adequate financial capital, realty industry is difficult for rapid development. So the development of realty and finance industry plays an important role for realty economy and even for the development of whole national economy.
In the view of current situation of realty market, it appears a good state for supplement and demand; it is the market shape in the specific historical conditions, but not normal supply and demand situation in the condition of market, now it has appeared imbalance situation in surplus. If it is no guide and regulation in time, it is bound to exacerbate a state of disorder, blind development, consumer vacant and quantitative, structural and qualitative vacant. And it ultimately leads to consequences. In the view of construction of realty financial system, after 10 years of development, China financial system has basically taken shape in realty. But in the current operation, it still has some problems to block its rapid, persistent and healthy development. For example, insufficiency on principle parts, lack of market brokers, lack of market tools and single finance sources in realty financial system. From the perspective of risk management, investments in realty excessive rely on bank loans and it concentrates on risks sources. And there are different species in the risks of realty finance; the risks on lots of land reservation, large backlog of funds begin to be felt. The discrepancy between loan period of land reservation and cash realization from land reservation caused many unforeseen factors, which will cause tremendous risks. It is also difficult to estimate risks caused by imbalance between supplements and demands of commercial houses, and this imbalance caused“tear building”and bad loans in bank. Once there are problems on“false mortgages”of housing financing, all loans involved will become bad loans in very short time, then all risks will release together. This series of problems cause a lot of attention from our theorists and government practice sections. These need scientific answers from theories and practice.
In this report, it is guided by the basic Marxist theory and analysis methods, and learning from western financial risk of realty and the rational cores of prevention theories, studying realty finance development, including its history and current status, prospects and its trend; this report will also study different modes of realty finance in different countries and the risks formation, characteristics and impact on national economic development, and will discuss development mode, risk mode, prevention system of realty finance risk and general rules of inner relationships in realty finance. On the basis of the status in China realty finance development, this report will make a reasonable evaluation on the current status of its development and its contributions in national economics development; it will make a scientific evaluation on finance risks of China realty; use for reference of which advanced experience of world realty finance, preventing risks and boosting realty economic development. Apply for a system of current target mode and framework in China realty finance; to improve abilities of preventing risks and to drive a healthy development in China realty economics.
In theory, this study shows there are risks definitely in our national realty finance, because there are high risks with congenital in realty industry and it has natural link with finance. In practice, our national realty has already faced a lot of risks, which is mentioned as below. Some of the markets have risks due to overheating; and there are implied financial risks, which are caused by high liability of realty investment companies; there are moral hazards caused by“false mortgages”; there are operation risks for loans from banks; credit risks of loans from land investment; legal risks on realty loans. But these do not mean national finance and economy has been damaged by realty industry. Because realty finance is still a quality business for banks, and banks are also glad to share high-profit with investors, loans for housing are also a high-quality business. So we can not neglect the optimization role of housing loans just for the reasons of risks. At the mean time, if we want to measure the risks of realty finance, it is not only needed to compare with size of the current loans and market value of land, but also needed to compare with credit scope and market value of whole land recourses. Most of the realty in China, especially houses acquired through housing reform, do not apply for loans from banks. At present, the houses of which creditor’s rights in banks are newly developed and sold in recent year. Besides, whether realty financial risks will become hazards, it depends on operation status of national economy. So one of the most conclusions in this report is that we can not say“bubble to rupture in realty”and“realty economic collapse”easily, if only a steady and healthy development of national economy and no overheating in realty industry.
In accordance with the judgments of China realty financial risks, we learn prevention policies from other countries realty finance risks system, trends of financing structures, and experiences and practices of main mode of realty development; we combine market demand, current basis and inland legal policies in realty financial system, and we set up a target mode of our national realty financial development. Our target mode is to develop our REITs on the basis of contracted investment funds; this is also called Listed Property Funds (LPFs). There are many similarities between LPFs and REITs as follow: firstly, regarding to its structure and specification, the trustees of LPFs in our county manage companies and target on profit maximization for investors; independently perform its functions and achieve LPFs holders in the best interest of consumers. LPFs administrator to manage and use the funds rose to invest VIin realty, which can generate realty income, and to provide a more stable source of income in return for holders. LPFs on realty and funds are held by the fund trustees ; fund administrators and trustees will charge management fees and trustee fees respectively. Secondly, the building of the realty system in REITs should adopt Asian mode, and issue and list other regulatory provisions through special legislation on the establishment of LPFs. There are differences between LPFs and REITs: First, the structure of LPFs is decided by specific regulations, and it use the closed-end funds with a single structure; unlike the United Sates market which is driven by a variety of REITs. Second, the relationships in our LPFs between administrators, trustees and holders are trust commissioned in essence. However, the structure of the entity is not defined by“Trust Law”directly. But the structure of REITs in European and American and other Asian regions and countries is fixed directly by related legal definitions.
From financial risks of the realty development and realty finance model requirements, this report shows the ideas of risks prevention systems, which adapt to the globalization of the world economy and the development trend of Chinese realty finance. First to build a new type of realty financial systems; second, it is necessary to set up a mortgage flat-network monitoring system to guard against the risks, third, build and manage the government control system to ensure the economic security of the property; fourth, we need to build realty financial risk control systems.
In the basic structure of this report, it can be divided into 4 sections and total 8 chapters.
Section 1, Summary of Realty Financial Risks in Theories (Chapter 1-Chapter2): interpretation of realty finance and risks in theory. Thought the review of realty finance and risks in theory, analyze the operating mechanism of the development of realty finance, and study the inter-relationships between national economies, realty economy, realty finance and realty finance risks; explore the formation and development of realty financing micro-mechanism and macro-risk mechanism, and provide a theoretical basis for establishment of our realty financial and improving the system of risk prevention.
It is thought in this report; risks are changes in the development of things caused by uncertainty. When changes are not conducive to the normal development of things, beneficiaries have to bear the losses; we call those risks of losing. From the general sense, the financing channels for single, asymmetric information, collateral risk, speculative behavior, banks and other illegal operations, all these can be the internal reasons for realty financial risks. However, state policies and regulations change, international economic turbulence caused by exchange rate fluctuations, changes in domestic interest rates and other financial risks, all these can be the external factors for realty financial risks. Then reasonable realty financial development and improving risk control system are the basic ways to avoid internal risks and to prevent external influences.
Section 2, Summary of the Realty Finance Development Abroad (Chapter 3, Chapter 6): study the mode and prevention measures of world realty finance development. Compare and study the different types of realty finance development model in different developed and developing countries; clarify the similarities and differences between model and mechanism of its operations; analyze the general rules governing the development of realty financing; support further theoretical policy preparations.
In this report, it has been 200 years of development of realty finance in developed countries, they are rich in successful experiences: They have set up a complete system of financial institutions and the development is based on the market mechanism; a dominant force in the realty finance market is all the government financial instructions, housing loans and consumer loans are separated; Professional realty loans of financial institutions is in a dominant position in the housing market. The basic form of housing loans is mortgage loans, which its forms are more flexible and completed in housing loans market. Realty finance innovation grows rapidly, and the government also provides positive supports for its development and so on. Compared with developed countries’, the development of housing loans in developing countries is far below the economic level of developed countries, and they have not established a housing finance system yet, which is complete and be tied closely with each other. They have not established a completed mortgage loan market, and the form of mortgage loan is single. And also, they focus on re-financing of housing construction, but ignore re-financing of housing consumer; lack of innovations; the government is also less of support in realty finance. This study concluded that China is a backward country in economy; the realty finance development level is very low and it faces with the arduous task of the rapid development. It is very important for China to learn from the experience of developed countries of high level economic development in realty financing, and to learn from the lessons of low level of financial development in developing countries; so that a mode that will fit China will be formed.
This report concludes the mechanism of financial risks. It is carried out by the study of world realty financial risks and analysis against financial risks. The mechanism can be concluded as follows: banks involved in the excessive, relaxed financial environment, the week control policies, international capital flows and other factors affecting the outcome of the interaction. Analyze the international framework for the formation of the realty bubble and this has been an effective policy experience, which is a stable exchange rate, good use of interest tools, strict control of bank loans and the management measures etc.
Section 3, Current Status and Risk Judgment in China Realty Finance Development (Chapter 4-Chapter 5): Analyze the current status of China realty finance development, and make judgment of its risks. Analyze the current situation and problems and focus on historical and reality study of its mode, and make a scientific judgment on risks in current China realty finance, such as whether it has risks, how about its risks and so on. That will provide actual evidence for our national realty financial mode and the establishment of risk prevention system.
In this report, realty financial development has experienced four periods of start, shrinking stagnation, comeback development and adjustment, and now it has been to a steady period of development. Especially from 2004, to be adapt to current realty market situation, realty development construction began to shrink, the requirement and demand are improved, residential structural problems highlighted, investment housing demand is growing faster, foreign funds enter the hot realty market in the region, and no development for land which has been sold. There are following characteristics in China realty financial market: investment funds dropped in place, a larger increase in realty loans, slow increase in developer loans, personal housing loans concentrated in a handful of major cities and hot spots, and rapid growth in housing loans policy. All these cause a sharp rise in prices, strong demands, single channel concentration on risks, lack of financial market system, in-effective of market regulators, and problems such as control mechanisms. Regional financial risks in China’s realty signs, such as little risk of personal realty loans, development loans released risks of individual banks and risks on government land reservation. Conclusion of this study is: realty financial risks do exist, but not“hijacked”the country’s finance and economy, and whether it will become crisis, it will depend on the national economy as a whole.
Section 4, Target Mode of China Realty financial development and structures of risks prevention system (Chapter 7-Chapter 8): to discuss the target mode of China realty financial development and the structures of risks prevention system. Based on the development of the realty finance in China, and the analysis of its current situation, problems and risks, learn from the advanced development mode, and guard against and defuse financial risks, explore and establish the goal of the development of China’s realty finance, and improve a mechanism and systems to prevent financial risks. The event aims to promote the healthy development of China’s realty economy, thereby stimulate rapid development of the national economy.
This report thinks that REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is the main mode of world realty financial development. This mode is to collect more funds through a document issued by a qualified majority of investors, and to be managed by investment institutions. Comprehensive investment proceeds will be distributed pro rate to a trust fund for investors. In China, the investment trust funds are quite feasible. First, there are successful listings of REITs in foreign exchange of experience for reference. Secondly, there are more than 50 listed companies in the realty business and regulatory experience to be shared. REITs provide reference for the design of the products. Third, REITs listed processes and business rules which are basically the same as the ordinary listed companies, the implementation costs are lower. Fourth, it is currently engaged in more than 29,000 enterprises in realty development. These companies can become a main resource of REITs. Since REITs is hard to break restrictions in China’s current legal system for the development of corporate and trust-based, this report advocate the development of China REITs produces through the model of contractual investment funds, which is also called LPFs (Listed Property Funds). It can provide banks for realty finance; help reduce over-reliance on bank loans due to the systemic risk.
From the realty and financial development requirements of the target model, this report shows the development trend and risks prevention system, which adapt to the globalization of the world economy. First, in line with international experience and China’s national conditions, set up new financial systems in realty, including 10 systems: legal system, financial institutions supervision system, fund-raising system, guarantee or insurance system, property management system, the government subsidy system. Second, change the traditional bank mortgage which guard against the risk control mechanism (vertical control system) to a new type of control mechanisms which prevent mortgage bank risks (flat network monitor and control system). Third, ensure the economic security of government property and management system, including possession of the target system and management of the system tools. Forth, set up the realty financial risks control system: paying attention to realty market trend, preventing risks, deepening reform of the financial system, innovating financial services, and developing the hedging tools, to establish a sound risk control mechanism, to strictly control the operational risks, speeding up the legal process, guard against the external risks of realty finance business.
This study is to the basic Marxist theory and analysis as a guide, to the practice as a basis for the development of China realty finance, to regard realty finance development mode and its practice in representative world countries as comparison and reference, to take the methods of combinations of theoretical and empirical analysis, comparison and combination of longitudinal, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and combination of past and future. It use he method of empirical analysis, compare and study with the realty finance development in developed and developing countries, analyze its specific and general mode in development, and reveal the general rules of its development. Meanwhile, it is transition from a historical analysis to reality gradually, transition of analysis scope from developed countries to developing countries, and transition to China realty finance development ultimately. On the macro level, understand the changes in the general law, and then into microscopic analysis, and analyze the uniqueness of certain parts of the countries. We strive to make the study of theoretical research and high academic value, and also this study can be used as actual operation.
This study makes a scientific judgment with China realty financial risks, and confirms its target model, and establishes its structure of risks preventing system, tries to prevent financial risks, improves a healthy development in China realty finance, pulls the realty economy, accelerates urbanization process and achieves sustained rapid and sound economic development. All these above have theoretical and realistic significations.
But as we know, it is difficult to have any progress in theory. This report has overcome the obstacles, such as weakness of realty financing research, lag of data, and uniformity of statistical standards and so on. This report also tries to have breakthroughs and innovation on the research of risks.
There are 4 aspects of innovations in this report; they can be demonstrated in the following:
Firstly, this report tries to make a new summary of realty financial risks theory. It sorts out the interaction relationships between realty finance and realty economic development through the review of realty finance and its risks. It analyzes the basic type and its formation of realty financial risks, and then sum up macroeconomic and microeconomic mechanisms of the formation of the risks. It prepares a theoretic support to the judgment and prevention of realty financial risks.
Secondly, try to make a new conclusion on the target model of China realty finance development. This paper analyzes the history of the development of realty finance. Through the aspect of different counties, it provides three types of realty financial development. These are the United States model, the German model, Singapore and South Korea model. Make a summary of the general development rules of realty finance. This has reference value for theoretical research, and provides practice experience abroad.
Thirdly, try to make a scientific judgment on China current realty financial risks. Use the theory of western realty finance and risks; analyze the history and current status of China realty finance development. Affirmation of the realty finance makes a significant contribution to the development of national economy. Point out the major problems in realty finance development and its reasons. Based on the realty and financial risks, make a scientific judgment. The paper points out that China’s realty finance obviously vulnerability. There are huge risks in the historical economy of the property, and there are enormous financial bubbles in current realty. If piled up the obvious potential risks, serious crisis will happened. According to above judgment, it has certain financial significant guidance for a clear understanding of the reality of China realty development. Precede to the structure of realty financial risks prevention systems and provide a theoretical basis.
Fourthly, try to propose a new structure of China realty finance risks prevention system. Based on scientific judgments of current realty financial risks, from the requirements of target model in the development of China realty finance, this report propose a risk prevention system innovatory, which adapt to the development trend of economic globalization and development of China realty finance. This system focuses on its internal logic and systematic factors, and presents the principle of interaction between urban and rural areas, and the principle of interactive industry. It also reflects the requirements of national economy development. There are innovations in theory, and there are realistically feasibilities in practice.
在研究思路上,本研究以马克思主义的基本理论和分析方法为指导,吸收和借鉴西方房地产金融风险及其防范理论与政策措施的合理内核,分析世界各国房地产金融发展的历史与现状、前景和趋势,研究不同类型国家房地产金融模式及其风险形式的形成过程、特点以及对国民经济发展的影响,探讨房地产金融发展模式、房地产金融风险形式、房地产金融风险的防范体系及其内在关系形成发展的一般规律。在此基础上,立足中国房地产金融发展的实际,对中国房地产金融业的发展现状及其在国民经济发展中的贡献率作出合理的评价,对中国房地产金融风险作出科学判断,积极借鉴世界各国发展房地产金融、防范房地产金融风险、促进房地产经济发展的先进经验,提出现阶段中国房地产金融发展的目标模式和防范房地产金融风险的框架体系,力求提高中国房地产金融业抵御金融风险或危机的能力,推动中国房地产经济持续健康发展。
在基本结构上,本研究分为四个部分,共八章。
第一部分,房地产金融风险理论概述(第1—2章):解读房地产金融及其风险理论。本研究认为风险是指事物发展的不确定性及其导致的改变,当改变不利于事物的正常发展时,事物的受益者就承担了更多的损失,即风险损失。从一般意义上说,融资渠道单一、信息不对称、抵押物风险、投机行为、银行违规操作等是造成房地产金融风险损失的内部原因,而国家政策及法规的变化、国际经济动荡导致的汇率变动及本国利率变动等则是造成房地产金融风险损失的外部原因。那么,合理确定房地产金融发展模式、健全房地产金融风险控制体系,就成为规避内部风险和防范外部影响的基本途径。
第二部分,国外房地产金融发展概况(第3章、第6章):研究世界各国房地产金融发展模式及房地产金融风险的防范措施。本研究通过对各国房地产金融风险的考察以及对房地产金融风险的危害分析,总结出房地产金融风险的形成机理,即银行的过度参与、宽松的金融环境、政策控制力的薄弱、国际资本流动的影响等因素交互作用的结果,分析比较了国际房地产泡沫的形成框架,得到了有效的政策经验,即稳定汇率、合理应用利率工具、严格控制银行贷款、实行多头并举的管理措施等等
第三部分,中国房地产金融发展现状与风险判断(第4—5章):明析中国房地产金融发展的现状,对房地产金融风险作出判断。本研究认为,中国房地产金融发展经历了起步、停滞萎缩、恢复发展、调整发展四个时期以后,目前业已步入规范发展时期。尤其是2004年以来,与房地产开发建设增幅回落、房地产市场的供求关系得到改善、房屋销售价格上涨较快、住宅供应结构性问题凸现、投资性购房需求增长较快、境外资金进入热点地区房地产市场、已出让存量土地没有及时得到开发等房地产市场情况相适应,中国房地产金融发展呈现房地产投资到位资金增幅下降、房地产贷款增幅较大、开发商贷款增幅减缓、个人购房贷款维持高增长、个人购房贷款集中于少数重点城市和热点地区、政策性住房贷款快速增长等特点,存在房价大幅攀升,需求依然旺盛;融资渠道单一,风险相对集中;金融市场结构单一,金融市场体系残缺;市场监管不得力,调控机制不完善等问题。中国房地产金融出现了地区性风险的苗头,个人房贷风险不大,开发贷款风险已经释放,个别银行风险较大,政府土地储备开发风险最大。研究结论就是:中国房地产金融风险确实存在,但并未“挟持”国家金融和经济,是否转变为危机依赖于国民经济整体的运行状况。
第四部分,中国房地产金融发展目标模式与风险防范体系架构(第7—8章):探讨中国房地产金融发展的目标模式和风险防范体系。本研究认为,房地产投资信托基金(Real Estate Investment Trusts,简称REITs)是当今世界房地产金融发展的主流模式。该模式是一种以发行收益凭证的方式汇集特定多数投资者的资金,由专门投资机构进行投资经营管理,并将投资综合收益按比例分配给投资者的一种信托基金制度。在我国,发展房地产投资信托基金产品具有相当的可行性。一是REITs在国外交易所成功上市的经验可供借鉴;二是有50多家房地产上市公司的经营和监管经验可供借鉴,为REITs产品的设计提供参考依据;三是REITs的上市流程和交易规则与普通上市公司的规定基本一致,实施成本较低;四是目前从事房地产开发的企业已有29000多家,可以成为发展REITs产品的主要资源。由于我国目前的法律制度对发展公司型和信托型的REITs有难以突破的限制,本研究主张采取契约型投资基金的模式发展我国REITs产品,即上市房地产基金(Listed Property Funds-LPFs)。它可以为房地产业提供银行外的一个融资方式,有助降低因过份依赖银行贷款而带来的系统风险。
从中国房地产金融发展目标模式的要求出发,本研究提出了适应世界经济全球化发展趋势和中国房地产金融发展的风险防范体系。一是根据国际经验和我国的国情,构建新型房地产金融体系,包括十大系统:法律系统、监管系统金融机构系统、资金营运系统、担保或保险系统、个人征信系统、二级市场系统、证券系统、物业资金管理系统、政府补贴系统。二是变传统的银行防范房贷风险的控制机制(垂直型监控体系)为新型的银行防范房贷风险的控制机制(扁平型网络化监控体系)。三是建立保证房地产经济安全的政府控管体系,包括政府控管的目标系统和政府控管的工具系统。四是构建房地产金融风险控制体系:注重研究房地产市场发展趋势,防范系统性风险;深化金融体制改革,创新金融品种,开发避险工具;建立健全风险控制机制,严格控制操作性风险;加快法制建设进程,遏制房地产金融业务的外部风险。
论文的创新点,主要表现在以下四个方面:第一,论文试图对房地产金融风险理论做出新概括。通过对房地产金融及风险理论的回顾,理清了房地产金融与房地产经济发展的互动关系,深入分析了房地产金融风险的基本类型及其形成要素,进而概括总结了房地产金融风险形成的宏观机制和微观机制,为我国房地产金融风险的判断和防范奠定了理论基础。第二,论文试图对中国房地产金融发展的目标模式做出新概括。论文通过对房地产金融业发展的历史分析,从房地产金融业发展的国别角度,提出了房地产金融业发展的四种模式,即美国模式、德国模式、新加坡模式、韩国模式,揭示了房地产金融业发展的一般规律,为确立中国房地产金融发展的目标模式提供了国外的实践借鉴。第三,论文试图对中国当前房地产金融风险作出科学判断。论文运用西方房地产金融及风险决定理论,分析了中国房地产金融发展的历史、现状,在肯定房地产金融对中国房地产经济乃至国民经济发展作出重大贡献的基础上,指出了中国房地产金融发展中的主要问题及其形成的原因,并据此对中国房地产金融风险作出了科学判断。论文指出,中国房地产金融具有明显的脆弱性,历史上的金融风险对房地产经济的危害重大;现实的房地产金融泡沫成分巨大,存在明显的风险隐患,任由其累积,必然爆发严重危机。上述判断,对于认清中国房地产金融发展的现实具有一定的指导性意义,进而为房地产金融风险防范体系的架构提供理论依据。第四,论文试图对中国防范房地产金融风险的体系提出新架构。论文以中国当前房地产金融风险的科学判断为依据,从中国房地产金融发展的目标模式的要求出发,创见性地提出了适应世界经济全球化发展趋势和中国房地产金融发展的风险防范体系。该体系注重内在的逻辑性和系统性,体现了城乡互动、产业互动的原则,反映了国内经济发展与对外开放统筹兼顾的科学发展观的要求,在理论上有所创新,在实践上具有现实的可操作性。
Realty Industry is an important section of national economy. Its rise and fall effects national economy’s directly. Realty industry is a high-input, high-risk and high-yield capital intensive industry as well. It highly reckons on financial capital, if it departs from the support of appropriate and adequate financial capital, realty industry is difficult for rapid development. So the development of realty and finance industry plays an important role for realty economy and even for the development of whole national economy.
In the view of current situation of realty market, it appears a good state for supplement and demand; it is the market shape in the specific historical conditions, but not normal supply and demand situation in the condition of market, now it has appeared imbalance situation in surplus. If it is no guide and regulation in time, it is bound to exacerbate a state of disorder, blind development, consumer vacant and quantitative, structural and qualitative vacant. And it ultimately leads to consequences. In the view of construction of realty financial system, after 10 years of development, China financial system has basically taken shape in realty. But in the current operation, it still has some problems to block its rapid, persistent and healthy development. For example, insufficiency on principle parts, lack of market brokers, lack of market tools and single finance sources in realty financial system. From the perspective of risk management, investments in realty excessive rely on bank loans and it concentrates on risks sources. And there are different species in the risks of realty finance; the risks on lots of land reservation, large backlog of funds begin to be felt. The discrepancy between loan period of land reservation and cash realization from land reservation caused many unforeseen factors, which will cause tremendous risks. It is also difficult to estimate risks caused by imbalance between supplements and demands of commercial houses, and this imbalance caused“tear building”and bad loans in bank. Once there are problems on“false mortgages”of housing financing, all loans involved will become bad loans in very short time, then all risks will release together. This series of problems cause a lot of attention from our theorists and government practice sections. These need scientific answers from theories and practice.
In this report, it is guided by the basic Marxist theory and analysis methods, and learning from western financial risk of realty and the rational cores of prevention theories, studying realty finance development, including its history and current status, prospects and its trend; this report will also study different modes of realty finance in different countries and the risks formation, characteristics and impact on national economic development, and will discuss development mode, risk mode, prevention system of realty finance risk and general rules of inner relationships in realty finance. On the basis of the status in China realty finance development, this report will make a reasonable evaluation on the current status of its development and its contributions in national economics development; it will make a scientific evaluation on finance risks of China realty; use for reference of which advanced experience of world realty finance, preventing risks and boosting realty economic development. Apply for a system of current target mode and framework in China realty finance; to improve abilities of preventing risks and to drive a healthy development in China realty economics.
In theory, this study shows there are risks definitely in our national realty finance, because there are high risks with congenital in realty industry and it has natural link with finance. In practice, our national realty has already faced a lot of risks, which is mentioned as below. Some of the markets have risks due to overheating; and there are implied financial risks, which are caused by high liability of realty investment companies; there are moral hazards caused by“false mortgages”; there are operation risks for loans from banks; credit risks of loans from land investment; legal risks on realty loans. But these do not mean national finance and economy has been damaged by realty industry. Because realty finance is still a quality business for banks, and banks are also glad to share high-profit with investors, loans for housing are also a high-quality business. So we can not neglect the optimization role of housing loans just for the reasons of risks. At the mean time, if we want to measure the risks of realty finance, it is not only needed to compare with size of the current loans and market value of land, but also needed to compare with credit scope and market value of whole land recourses. Most of the realty in China, especially houses acquired through housing reform, do not apply for loans from banks. At present, the houses of which creditor’s rights in banks are newly developed and sold in recent year. Besides, whether realty financial risks will become hazards, it depends on operation status of national economy. So one of the most conclusions in this report is that we can not say“bubble to rupture in realty”and“realty economic collapse”easily, if only a steady and healthy development of national economy and no overheating in realty industry.
In accordance with the judgments of China realty financial risks, we learn prevention policies from other countries realty finance risks system, trends of financing structures, and experiences and practices of main mode of realty development; we combine market demand, current basis and inland legal policies in realty financial system, and we set up a target mode of our national realty financial development. Our target mode is to develop our REITs on the basis of contracted investment funds; this is also called Listed Property Funds (LPFs). There are many similarities between LPFs and REITs as follow: firstly, regarding to its structure and specification, the trustees of LPFs in our county manage companies and target on profit maximization for investors; independently perform its functions and achieve LPFs holders in the best interest of consumers. LPFs administrator to manage and use the funds rose to invest VIin realty, which can generate realty income, and to provide a more stable source of income in return for holders. LPFs on realty and funds are held by the fund trustees ; fund administrators and trustees will charge management fees and trustee fees respectively. Secondly, the building of the realty system in REITs should adopt Asian mode, and issue and list other regulatory provisions through special legislation on the establishment of LPFs. There are differences between LPFs and REITs: First, the structure of LPFs is decided by specific regulations, and it use the closed-end funds with a single structure; unlike the United Sates market which is driven by a variety of REITs. Second, the relationships in our LPFs between administrators, trustees and holders are trust commissioned in essence. However, the structure of the entity is not defined by“Trust Law”directly. But the structure of REITs in European and American and other Asian regions and countries is fixed directly by related legal definitions.
From financial risks of the realty development and realty finance model requirements, this report shows the ideas of risks prevention systems, which adapt to the globalization of the world economy and the development trend of Chinese realty finance. First to build a new type of realty financial systems; second, it is necessary to set up a mortgage flat-network monitoring system to guard against the risks, third, build and manage the government control system to ensure the economic security of the property; fourth, we need to build realty financial risk control systems.
In the basic structure of this report, it can be divided into 4 sections and total 8 chapters.
Section 1, Summary of Realty Financial Risks in Theories (Chapter 1-Chapter2): interpretation of realty finance and risks in theory. Thought the review of realty finance and risks in theory, analyze the operating mechanism of the development of realty finance, and study the inter-relationships between national economies, realty economy, realty finance and realty finance risks; explore the formation and development of realty financing micro-mechanism and macro-risk mechanism, and provide a theoretical basis for establishment of our realty financial and improving the system of risk prevention.
It is thought in this report; risks are changes in the development of things caused by uncertainty. When changes are not conducive to the normal development of things, beneficiaries have to bear the losses; we call those risks of losing. From the general sense, the financing channels for single, asymmetric information, collateral risk, speculative behavior, banks and other illegal operations, all these can be the internal reasons for realty financial risks. However, state policies and regulations change, international economic turbulence caused by exchange rate fluctuations, changes in domestic interest rates and other financial risks, all these can be the external factors for realty financial risks. Then reasonable realty financial development and improving risk control system are the basic ways to avoid internal risks and to prevent external influences.
Section 2, Summary of the Realty Finance Development Abroad (Chapter 3, Chapter 6): study the mode and prevention measures of world realty finance development. Compare and study the different types of realty finance development model in different developed and developing countries; clarify the similarities and differences between model and mechanism of its operations; analyze the general rules governing the development of realty financing; support further theoretical policy preparations.
In this report, it has been 200 years of development of realty finance in developed countries, they are rich in successful experiences: They have set up a complete system of financial institutions and the development is based on the market mechanism; a dominant force in the realty finance market is all the government financial instructions, housing loans and consumer loans are separated; Professional realty loans of financial institutions is in a dominant position in the housing market. The basic form of housing loans is mortgage loans, which its forms are more flexible and completed in housing loans market. Realty finance innovation grows rapidly, and the government also provides positive supports for its development and so on. Compared with developed countries’, the development of housing loans in developing countries is far below the economic level of developed countries, and they have not established a housing finance system yet, which is complete and be tied closely with each other. They have not established a completed mortgage loan market, and the form of mortgage loan is single. And also, they focus on re-financing of housing construction, but ignore re-financing of housing consumer; lack of innovations; the government is also less of support in realty finance. This study concluded that China is a backward country in economy; the realty finance development level is very low and it faces with the arduous task of the rapid development. It is very important for China to learn from the experience of developed countries of high level economic development in realty financing, and to learn from the lessons of low level of financial development in developing countries; so that a mode that will fit China will be formed.
This report concludes the mechanism of financial risks. It is carried out by the study of world realty financial risks and analysis against financial risks. The mechanism can be concluded as follows: banks involved in the excessive, relaxed financial environment, the week control policies, international capital flows and other factors affecting the outcome of the interaction. Analyze the international framework for the formation of the realty bubble and this has been an effective policy experience, which is a stable exchange rate, good use of interest tools, strict control of bank loans and the management measures etc.
Section 3, Current Status and Risk Judgment in China Realty Finance Development (Chapter 4-Chapter 5): Analyze the current status of China realty finance development, and make judgment of its risks. Analyze the current situation and problems and focus on historical and reality study of its mode, and make a scientific judgment on risks in current China realty finance, such as whether it has risks, how about its risks and so on. That will provide actual evidence for our national realty financial mode and the establishment of risk prevention system.
In this report, realty financial development has experienced four periods of start, shrinking stagnation, comeback development and adjustment, and now it has been to a steady period of development. Especially from 2004, to be adapt to current realty market situation, realty development construction began to shrink, the requirement and demand are improved, residential structural problems highlighted, investment housing demand is growing faster, foreign funds enter the hot realty market in the region, and no development for land which has been sold. There are following characteristics in China realty financial market: investment funds dropped in place, a larger increase in realty loans, slow increase in developer loans, personal housing loans concentrated in a handful of major cities and hot spots, and rapid growth in housing loans policy. All these cause a sharp rise in prices, strong demands, single channel concentration on risks, lack of financial market system, in-effective of market regulators, and problems such as control mechanisms. Regional financial risks in China’s realty signs, such as little risk of personal realty loans, development loans released risks of individual banks and risks on government land reservation. Conclusion of this study is: realty financial risks do exist, but not“hijacked”the country’s finance and economy, and whether it will become crisis, it will depend on the national economy as a whole.
Section 4, Target Mode of China Realty financial development and structures of risks prevention system (Chapter 7-Chapter 8): to discuss the target mode of China realty financial development and the structures of risks prevention system. Based on the development of the realty finance in China, and the analysis of its current situation, problems and risks, learn from the advanced development mode, and guard against and defuse financial risks, explore and establish the goal of the development of China’s realty finance, and improve a mechanism and systems to prevent financial risks. The event aims to promote the healthy development of China’s realty economy, thereby stimulate rapid development of the national economy.
This report thinks that REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is the main mode of world realty financial development. This mode is to collect more funds through a document issued by a qualified majority of investors, and to be managed by investment institutions. Comprehensive investment proceeds will be distributed pro rate to a trust fund for investors. In China, the investment trust funds are quite feasible. First, there are successful listings of REITs in foreign exchange of experience for reference. Secondly, there are more than 50 listed companies in the realty business and regulatory experience to be shared. REITs provide reference for the design of the products. Third, REITs listed processes and business rules which are basically the same as the ordinary listed companies, the implementation costs are lower. Fourth, it is currently engaged in more than 29,000 enterprises in realty development. These companies can become a main resource of REITs. Since REITs is hard to break restrictions in China’s current legal system for the development of corporate and trust-based, this report advocate the development of China REITs produces through the model of contractual investment funds, which is also called LPFs (Listed Property Funds). It can provide banks for realty finance; help reduce over-reliance on bank loans due to the systemic risk.
From the realty and financial development requirements of the target model, this report shows the development trend and risks prevention system, which adapt to the globalization of the world economy. First, in line with international experience and China’s national conditions, set up new financial systems in realty, including 10 systems: legal system, financial institutions supervision system, fund-raising system, guarantee or insurance system, property management system, the government subsidy system. Second, change the traditional bank mortgage which guard against the risk control mechanism (vertical control system) to a new type of control mechanisms which prevent mortgage bank risks (flat network monitor and control system). Third, ensure the economic security of government property and management system, including possession of the target system and management of the system tools. Forth, set up the realty financial risks control system: paying attention to realty market trend, preventing risks, deepening reform of the financial system, innovating financial services, and developing the hedging tools, to establish a sound risk control mechanism, to strictly control the operational risks, speeding up the legal process, guard against the external risks of realty finance business.
This study is to the basic Marxist theory and analysis as a guide, to the practice as a basis for the development of China realty finance, to regard realty finance development mode and its practice in representative world countries as comparison and reference, to take the methods of combinations of theoretical and empirical analysis, comparison and combination of longitudinal, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and combination of past and future. It use he method of empirical analysis, compare and study with the realty finance development in developed and developing countries, analyze its specific and general mode in development, and reveal the general rules of its development. Meanwhile, it is transition from a historical analysis to reality gradually, transition of analysis scope from developed countries to developing countries, and transition to China realty finance development ultimately. On the macro level, understand the changes in the general law, and then into microscopic analysis, and analyze the uniqueness of certain parts of the countries. We strive to make the study of theoretical research and high academic value, and also this study can be used as actual operation.
This study makes a scientific judgment with China realty financial risks, and confirms its target model, and establishes its structure of risks preventing system, tries to prevent financial risks, improves a healthy development in China realty finance, pulls the realty economy, accelerates urbanization process and achieves sustained rapid and sound economic development. All these above have theoretical and realistic significations.
But as we know, it is difficult to have any progress in theory. This report has overcome the obstacles, such as weakness of realty financing research, lag of data, and uniformity of statistical standards and so on. This report also tries to have breakthroughs and innovation on the research of risks.
There are 4 aspects of innovations in this report; they can be demonstrated in the following:
Firstly, this report tries to make a new summary of realty financial risks theory. It sorts out the interaction relationships between realty finance and realty economic development through the review of realty finance and its risks. It analyzes the basic type and its formation of realty financial risks, and then sum up macroeconomic and microeconomic mechanisms of the formation of the risks. It prepares a theoretic support to the judgment and prevention of realty financial risks.
Secondly, try to make a new conclusion on the target model of China realty finance development. This paper analyzes the history of the development of realty finance. Through the aspect of different counties, it provides three types of realty financial development. These are the United States model, the German model, Singapore and South Korea model. Make a summary of the general development rules of realty finance. This has reference value for theoretical research, and provides practice experience abroad.
Thirdly, try to make a scientific judgment on China current realty financial risks. Use the theory of western realty finance and risks; analyze the history and current status of China realty finance development. Affirmation of the realty finance makes a significant contribution to the development of national economy. Point out the major problems in realty finance development and its reasons. Based on the realty and financial risks, make a scientific judgment. The paper points out that China’s realty finance obviously vulnerability. There are huge risks in the historical economy of the property, and there are enormous financial bubbles in current realty. If piled up the obvious potential risks, serious crisis will happened. According to above judgment, it has certain financial significant guidance for a clear understanding of the reality of China realty development. Precede to the structure of realty financial risks prevention systems and provide a theoretical basis.
Fourthly, try to propose a new structure of China realty finance risks prevention system. Based on scientific judgments of current realty financial risks, from the requirements of target model in the development of China realty finance, this report propose a risk prevention system innovatory, which adapt to the development trend of economic globalization and development of China realty finance. This system focuses on its internal logic and systematic factors, and presents the principle of interaction between urban and rural areas, and the principle of interactive industry. It also reflects the requirements of national economy development. There are innovations in theory, and there are realistically feasibilities in practice.
引文
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