发展中国家银行业开放的福利效应研究
摘要
银行业开放及其效应是一个世界性的研究与实践课题,各国在银行业开放实践中的新问题层出不穷,特别是发展中国家银行业开放的特殊性和复杂性,对理论研究和实践操作都提出了新的挑战。本文将产业组织理论应用到银行业开放问题的研究之中,深化了对发展中国家银行业开放及其效应的认识,并为分析和解决其中出现的各种问题提供新的理论平台。
本文从银行产业组织结构的视角出发,以“银行业开放的福利效应研究”为主题,通过构建银行业竞争的理论模型,分别研究在完全垄断的市场结构下银行业的福利状况,银行业对国内开放条件下(国内银行的古诺竞争)的福利状况,在对外资开放条件下(国内银行业和外资银行古诺竞争)的福利状况。从三个理论模型的福利比较得出,即使在封闭市场条件下,随着国内银行市场竞争的加剧,也将有利于提高银行市场效率和社会福利水平,这也可以用于解释发展中国家的银行业首先对内开放以提高效率的举措。但是由于这些国家国内银行市场竞争的不充分,最终效率的提高通常是有限的。因此,银行业开放(允许外资进入)对于提高银行业福利来说具有重要意义。而外资银行进入的影响机制比较复杂,总的来说,在本文研究假设条件下(在成本效率和信用风险程度对称的前提下),外资银行进入可以增加消费者福利,但不一定有助于东道国整体福利的增进。如果国内银行体系相对无效率,并且预期不良贷款比率较高时,对外开放银行体系,引入效率更高和风险管理能力更强的外资银行,将有助于银行业总体福利的增进。之后运用中东欧11个发展中国家353家银行的数据验证理论假设,实证结果表明,外资银行确实要比国内银行更具效率,并且外资银行进入促进了这些国家银行整体效率的提升,银行业利差的缩小,国内银行盈利水平的降低以及总信贷供给的增加。因此,外资银行进入虽然会将降低国内银行的利润水平,但是对于整个国民经济来说仍具有正的福利效应。
在对银行业开放福利静态分析的基础上,本文还分析了银行业开放和金融稳定性的关系,这是银行业开放的动态影响机制。研究发现,外资银行进入对东道国银行体系稳定性既可能产生的负面效应,也存在正面的影响机制。而经验证据表明更多的外资银行进入会带来更稳定的银行体系和进一步降低信贷波动,但是这些证据依然有限。
最后讨论了中国银行业开放的历程和一些重大实践问题。从进入影响来看,外资银行的进入在一定程度上带动了中资银行经营理念的提升和管理水平的提高,对我国银行业效率的提高和银行业改革的深化产生了一定的示范和溢出效应。但受制于制度约束和市场份额低等因素,外资银行对国内银行的竞争压力有限,对中国银行业整体效率提高的贡献有限,也并没有导致利差缩小、国内银行利润下降。还在对中国银行业开放实践分析基础上提出了深化我国银行业改革的必要性和提高国内银行竞争力的路径。
Opening-up of banking and its effect is a worldwide academic and practical project. A host of new problems are emerging in an endless stream in lots of countries, especially the opening of developing countries' banking is a new challenge to the theoretic research and practice because of its particularity and complexity. This dissertation applies industrial organization theory to the research on this issue, deepening our understanding of the opening-up of developing countries' banking and its effect, and provides a new theoretic platform for analyzing and resolving problems in this process.
Starting with the vision of banking organization structure, focusing on the welfare effects of banking' opening up, this dissertation investigates the welfare of banking under the condition of complete monopoly, domestic opening up (Cournot Competition among domestic banks) and opening up to foreign capital (Cournot competition between domestic and foreign banks) respectively. By this comparison, I come to the conclusion that even in a closed banking market, the increasing competition will improve the efficiency of banking system and social welfare level. This can also explain why the banking in developing countries will firstly be opened to domestic capital. However, due to the insufficient competition of bank market in these countries, improvement of efficiency is usually limited. So the opening-up of banking to foreign investors is extremely meaningful. Under the assumption that foreign banks are more competitive than domestic banks, I deduce that even they have the same cost and credit risk, the former has an advantage in capital source, from which consumers can benefit a lot. After the entry of foreign banks, the effectiveness of host country's monetary policy has been decreasing. I also propose that foreign monetary policy will affect domestic economy through credit rate. At last, I find that the asymmetry of cost efficiency and credit risk between foreign and domestic banks might be a key factor to support the entry of foreign banks for developing countries. Using a sample composed by of 353 banks in 11 mid-and east European countries, my positive analysis proved that foreign banks actually are more efficient. Additionally, their entry can also accelerate the whole efficiency of the banking and lessening the margin, as well as reducing profitability of domestic banks and providing more credit. In summary, although the entry of foreign banks will reduce profit of domestic banks, there is positive effect for the whole economy.
Based on forward analysis of banking opening, I analyze the current research documents about the relationship between the competition of foreign banks and stability of banking system in host countries, finding that the entry of foreign banks might have both negative and positive effects on the stability of host countries' banking system. Some practical experiences have shown that the entry of more foreign banks can make the banking system more stable and decrease the fluctuation of credit, although these evidences are still limited.
Finally, the thesis focuses on the process and practice of opening-up of Chinese banking. By the welfare effect analysis, the author shows the necessity of deepening the reform of Chinese banking, ways to develop competence and improve the performance of Chinese banking.
本文从银行产业组织结构的视角出发,以“银行业开放的福利效应研究”为主题,通过构建银行业竞争的理论模型,分别研究在完全垄断的市场结构下银行业的福利状况,银行业对国内开放条件下(国内银行的古诺竞争)的福利状况,在对外资开放条件下(国内银行业和外资银行古诺竞争)的福利状况。从三个理论模型的福利比较得出,即使在封闭市场条件下,随着国内银行市场竞争的加剧,也将有利于提高银行市场效率和社会福利水平,这也可以用于解释发展中国家的银行业首先对内开放以提高效率的举措。但是由于这些国家国内银行市场竞争的不充分,最终效率的提高通常是有限的。因此,银行业开放(允许外资进入)对于提高银行业福利来说具有重要意义。而外资银行进入的影响机制比较复杂,总的来说,在本文研究假设条件下(在成本效率和信用风险程度对称的前提下),外资银行进入可以增加消费者福利,但不一定有助于东道国整体福利的增进。如果国内银行体系相对无效率,并且预期不良贷款比率较高时,对外开放银行体系,引入效率更高和风险管理能力更强的外资银行,将有助于银行业总体福利的增进。之后运用中东欧11个发展中国家353家银行的数据验证理论假设,实证结果表明,外资银行确实要比国内银行更具效率,并且外资银行进入促进了这些国家银行整体效率的提升,银行业利差的缩小,国内银行盈利水平的降低以及总信贷供给的增加。因此,外资银行进入虽然会将降低国内银行的利润水平,但是对于整个国民经济来说仍具有正的福利效应。
在对银行业开放福利静态分析的基础上,本文还分析了银行业开放和金融稳定性的关系,这是银行业开放的动态影响机制。研究发现,外资银行进入对东道国银行体系稳定性既可能产生的负面效应,也存在正面的影响机制。而经验证据表明更多的外资银行进入会带来更稳定的银行体系和进一步降低信贷波动,但是这些证据依然有限。
最后讨论了中国银行业开放的历程和一些重大实践问题。从进入影响来看,外资银行的进入在一定程度上带动了中资银行经营理念的提升和管理水平的提高,对我国银行业效率的提高和银行业改革的深化产生了一定的示范和溢出效应。但受制于制度约束和市场份额低等因素,外资银行对国内银行的竞争压力有限,对中国银行业整体效率提高的贡献有限,也并没有导致利差缩小、国内银行利润下降。还在对中国银行业开放实践分析基础上提出了深化我国银行业改革的必要性和提高国内银行竞争力的路径。
Opening-up of banking and its effect is a worldwide academic and practical project. A host of new problems are emerging in an endless stream in lots of countries, especially the opening of developing countries' banking is a new challenge to the theoretic research and practice because of its particularity and complexity. This dissertation applies industrial organization theory to the research on this issue, deepening our understanding of the opening-up of developing countries' banking and its effect, and provides a new theoretic platform for analyzing and resolving problems in this process.
Starting with the vision of banking organization structure, focusing on the welfare effects of banking' opening up, this dissertation investigates the welfare of banking under the condition of complete monopoly, domestic opening up (Cournot Competition among domestic banks) and opening up to foreign capital (Cournot competition between domestic and foreign banks) respectively. By this comparison, I come to the conclusion that even in a closed banking market, the increasing competition will improve the efficiency of banking system and social welfare level. This can also explain why the banking in developing countries will firstly be opened to domestic capital. However, due to the insufficient competition of bank market in these countries, improvement of efficiency is usually limited. So the opening-up of banking to foreign investors is extremely meaningful. Under the assumption that foreign banks are more competitive than domestic banks, I deduce that even they have the same cost and credit risk, the former has an advantage in capital source, from which consumers can benefit a lot. After the entry of foreign banks, the effectiveness of host country's monetary policy has been decreasing. I also propose that foreign monetary policy will affect domestic economy through credit rate. At last, I find that the asymmetry of cost efficiency and credit risk between foreign and domestic banks might be a key factor to support the entry of foreign banks for developing countries. Using a sample composed by of 353 banks in 11 mid-and east European countries, my positive analysis proved that foreign banks actually are more efficient. Additionally, their entry can also accelerate the whole efficiency of the banking and lessening the margin, as well as reducing profitability of domestic banks and providing more credit. In summary, although the entry of foreign banks will reduce profit of domestic banks, there is positive effect for the whole economy.
Based on forward analysis of banking opening, I analyze the current research documents about the relationship between the competition of foreign banks and stability of banking system in host countries, finding that the entry of foreign banks might have both negative and positive effects on the stability of host countries' banking system. Some practical experiences have shown that the entry of more foreign banks can make the banking system more stable and decrease the fluctuation of credit, although these evidences are still limited.
Finally, the thesis focuses on the process and practice of opening-up of Chinese banking. By the welfare effect analysis, the author shows the necessity of deepening the reform of Chinese banking, ways to develop competence and improve the performance of Chinese banking.
引文
[1]80年代美国的区域性金融业危机也是引发清除州际银行业务限制的一个原因(Gunther、1994)。
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