银行业竞争对单个银行和银行体系稳定的影响
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摘要
银行业是一国金融体系的重要组成部分,银行稳定对于实现金融稳定至关重要。频频爆发的银行危机以其巨大的危害,一再提醒人们银行稳定的重要性。近年来,欧美国家纷纷采取措施促进本国单个银行之间的竞争,以应对所面临的挑战。为了改变银行业不发达的局面,监管当局采取多种措施以提高我国银行业的竞争。从2006年年底起,我国银行业必须直面外资银行的竞争。银行业作为国民经济中的一个独立行业,其竞争的变化显然会极大影响自身稳定。与实践的迫切需要相对照,从已有的银行稳定研究成果来看,从行业、尤其是行业竞争的角度展开分析的文献较少。因此,分析银行业竞争对银行稳定的影响具有相当的理论和现实意义。
本文把银行稳定分为单个银行稳定和银行体系稳定两个层面,基于产业组织理论,从银行业竞争出发,以单个银行为中介,分析竞争对银行体系稳定的影响。首先,论文分别衡量了文章的三大研究对象:中国银行业竞争、主要银行稳定和中国银行体系稳定。然后基于理论模型,确定了银行业竞争影响单个银行稳定的三个传导机制:利差、效率和差异化,并依次论述这三个传导机制如何影响单个银行稳定。在理论分析的基础上,本文刻画了我国主要银行的利差、效率和差异化,并运用计量方法和案例分析对中国银行业竞争影响主要银行稳定的传导机制进行实证检验。单个银行稳定受银行业竞争的作用发生变化,这会影响到银行体系的稳定。本研究对这种影响分别进行理论分析、数量分析和计量检验。经过从银行业竞争到单个银行稳定和从单个银行稳定到银行体系稳定这两个环节后,最后探讨了银行业竞争与中国银行体系稳定之间所表现出来的关系。
通过理论分析和实证检验,本文得到如下主要结论:(1)无论是赫芬达尔指数还是PR方法,两者都表明我国银行业竞争有了显著提高。将定量指标分析法和计量分析法相结合衡量主要银行和我国银行体系的稳定,结果证明整体而言两者都有了较大地改善。(2)随着银行业竞争的提高,利差缩小,效率和差异化水平提高。利差的缩小不利于单个银行稳定,而效率和一定范围内差异化水平的提高则有利于单个银行稳定。(3)实证检验结果表明,银行业竞争有利于我国主要银行稳定。在实际经济生活中,整体而言,利差这个传导机制最重要,宏观效率次之,微观效率的重要性最小,而差异化这个传导机制则几乎不起作用。(4)单个银行稳定通过传染的负外部性直接影响银行体系的稳定性。除了这一直接途径以外,大型银行的稳定性还能在一定程度上通过影响经济发展环境,从而间接影响银行体系的稳定性。单个银行的稳定性越高,银行体系越稳定。基于中国银行业数据所进行的实证检验表明,主要银行稳定有利于我国银行体系保持稳定。(5)银行业竞争与我国银行体系稳定存在着长期的正向关系,如果两者处于非均衡的状态,将会以一定的调整速率回到均衡之中。
围绕着“银行业竞争——单个银行稳定——银行体系稳定”这一分析框架,本文在以下三个方面进行了尝试性的创新:(1)把结构主义和新产业组织理论衡量方法有机结合,分别运用赫芬达尔指数和PR方法对中国银行业竞争状况的变化进行考察。(2)深入分析了银行业竞争影响单个银行稳定的传导机制,提出利差、效率和差异化是产生影响的三个传导机制,并基于中国银行业的数据对此进行检验。(3)探讨了单个银行稳定影响银行体系稳定的作用机理,认为单个银行保持稳定有利于银行体系的稳定,并对此进行实证检验。
当然,本研究仍然存在诸多不足之处。对此,本文最后部分提出了本研究的局限性以及未来还需要深入研究的若干问题。
The banking industry is an important component of one country's finance system. Banking stability is of great significance to realize finance stability. The repeatedly eruptive banking crises warn people the importance of banking stability again and again. To deal with the current challenge, European and American countries have taken measures to promote the competition among banks in recent years. In order to change the underdeveloped situation of banking industry, the government takes measures to improve banking industry competition of our country. The banking industry of our country has to confront the competition of foreign banks directly from the end of 2006. Obviously, as an independent industry of the national economy, the change of the banking industry competition will affect banking stability greatly. In contrast with the urgent need of the practice, the existing analysis about banking stability from the angle of the industry, especially the industry competition is relatively little. So, the analysis of the influence of the banking competition on banking stability has its theoretic and realistic significance.
Banking stability consists of banks stability and banking industry stability in this dissertation. Based on the Industry Organization theory, this dissertation, from the banking industry compete-tion and with the link of the single bank, analyzes the influence of the competition on banking system stability. Firstly, three research objects--China's banking industry competition, main banksstability and banking system stability are measureed respectively. Secondly, the mechanisms of banking industry competition's influence on banks stability are defined based on theory model and how the mechanism influences banks stability is studied respectively. The mechanisms are spread, efficiency and differentiation. After theory analysis, the spread, efficiency and differentiation of our country' main banks are measured and the mechanisms of the influence of China's banking industry competition on main banks stability are tested empirically by the econometric method and case analysis. Banks stability is changed by banking industry competition which will influence banking system stability. This influence is probed by the theory analysis, quantitative analysis and econometric test. Finally, after analyzing two links: from banking industry competition to banks stability and from banks stability to banking system stability, the relationship between the banking industry competition and China's banking system stability is probed.
Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test, some conclusions are drawn in the dissertation. (1) The results of Herfindahl index and PR method both show that the banking industry competition improves evi-dently. The results of the means of combining the quantitative index analysis method with the econometric analysis method prove that both main banks stability and banking system stability have improved on the whole. (2) The improvement of banking industry competition will decrease banks' spread and ameliorates banks' efficiency and differenttiation. The decrease of the spread is harmful to banks stability, while the increase of the efficiency and the differentiation within some scope is useful to banks stability. (3) The result of the empirical test shows that banking industry competition is useful to main banks stability in our country. In practice, spread is the most important and macro-efficiency is the second. The micro-efficiency is the least important while differentiation doesn't function wholly. (4) Banking system stability is influenced by banks stability through negative externalities of the infection directly. Besides this direct route, large banks stability can influence banking system stability indirectly through affecting the economy development environment in some extent. Banking system is more stable with the improvement of banks stability. According to the empirical test based on the data of China's banking industry, the main banks stability is useful to banking system stability in our country. (5) There is a positive correlation in long term between banking industry competition and banking system stability. If they are in disequilibrium, they will return to equilibrium at a certain rate.
In the framework of banking industry competition, banks stability and banking system stability, this dissertation's innovative contributions can be classified into three points. (1) The evolution of China's banking industry competition is inspected by Herfindahl index and PR method respectively, combining the structuralism and New Industry Organization theory measurement methods. (2) The mechanism of the influence of banking industry competition on banks stability is analyzed deeply. This dissertation argues that the spread, efficiency and differentiation are the mechanisms and this conclusion is tested based on the data of China's banking industry. (3) The functional principle of the influence of banks stability on banking system stability is probed. This dissertation argues that banks stability is useful to banking system stability and this conclusion is tested empirically.
Despites the author's endeavor, there are still some defects in this dissertation. Therefore, some limits of this dissertation are discussed in the end of the dissertation and the gap will be met in the further detailed study.
本文把银行稳定分为单个银行稳定和银行体系稳定两个层面,基于产业组织理论,从银行业竞争出发,以单个银行为中介,分析竞争对银行体系稳定的影响。首先,论文分别衡量了文章的三大研究对象:中国银行业竞争、主要银行稳定和中国银行体系稳定。然后基于理论模型,确定了银行业竞争影响单个银行稳定的三个传导机制:利差、效率和差异化,并依次论述这三个传导机制如何影响单个银行稳定。在理论分析的基础上,本文刻画了我国主要银行的利差、效率和差异化,并运用计量方法和案例分析对中国银行业竞争影响主要银行稳定的传导机制进行实证检验。单个银行稳定受银行业竞争的作用发生变化,这会影响到银行体系的稳定。本研究对这种影响分别进行理论分析、数量分析和计量检验。经过从银行业竞争到单个银行稳定和从单个银行稳定到银行体系稳定这两个环节后,最后探讨了银行业竞争与中国银行体系稳定之间所表现出来的关系。
通过理论分析和实证检验,本文得到如下主要结论:(1)无论是赫芬达尔指数还是PR方法,两者都表明我国银行业竞争有了显著提高。将定量指标分析法和计量分析法相结合衡量主要银行和我国银行体系的稳定,结果证明整体而言两者都有了较大地改善。(2)随着银行业竞争的提高,利差缩小,效率和差异化水平提高。利差的缩小不利于单个银行稳定,而效率和一定范围内差异化水平的提高则有利于单个银行稳定。(3)实证检验结果表明,银行业竞争有利于我国主要银行稳定。在实际经济生活中,整体而言,利差这个传导机制最重要,宏观效率次之,微观效率的重要性最小,而差异化这个传导机制则几乎不起作用。(4)单个银行稳定通过传染的负外部性直接影响银行体系的稳定性。除了这一直接途径以外,大型银行的稳定性还能在一定程度上通过影响经济发展环境,从而间接影响银行体系的稳定性。单个银行的稳定性越高,银行体系越稳定。基于中国银行业数据所进行的实证检验表明,主要银行稳定有利于我国银行体系保持稳定。(5)银行业竞争与我国银行体系稳定存在着长期的正向关系,如果两者处于非均衡的状态,将会以一定的调整速率回到均衡之中。
围绕着“银行业竞争——单个银行稳定——银行体系稳定”这一分析框架,本文在以下三个方面进行了尝试性的创新:(1)把结构主义和新产业组织理论衡量方法有机结合,分别运用赫芬达尔指数和PR方法对中国银行业竞争状况的变化进行考察。(2)深入分析了银行业竞争影响单个银行稳定的传导机制,提出利差、效率和差异化是产生影响的三个传导机制,并基于中国银行业的数据对此进行检验。(3)探讨了单个银行稳定影响银行体系稳定的作用机理,认为单个银行保持稳定有利于银行体系的稳定,并对此进行实证检验。
当然,本研究仍然存在诸多不足之处。对此,本文最后部分提出了本研究的局限性以及未来还需要深入研究的若干问题。
The banking industry is an important component of one country's finance system. Banking stability is of great significance to realize finance stability. The repeatedly eruptive banking crises warn people the importance of banking stability again and again. To deal with the current challenge, European and American countries have taken measures to promote the competition among banks in recent years. In order to change the underdeveloped situation of banking industry, the government takes measures to improve banking industry competition of our country. The banking industry of our country has to confront the competition of foreign banks directly from the end of 2006. Obviously, as an independent industry of the national economy, the change of the banking industry competition will affect banking stability greatly. In contrast with the urgent need of the practice, the existing analysis about banking stability from the angle of the industry, especially the industry competition is relatively little. So, the analysis of the influence of the banking competition on banking stability has its theoretic and realistic significance.
Banking stability consists of banks stability and banking industry stability in this dissertation. Based on the Industry Organization theory, this dissertation, from the banking industry compete-tion and with the link of the single bank, analyzes the influence of the competition on banking system stability. Firstly, three research objects--China's banking industry competition, main banksstability and banking system stability are measureed respectively. Secondly, the mechanisms of banking industry competition's influence on banks stability are defined based on theory model and how the mechanism influences banks stability is studied respectively. The mechanisms are spread, efficiency and differentiation. After theory analysis, the spread, efficiency and differentiation of our country' main banks are measured and the mechanisms of the influence of China's banking industry competition on main banks stability are tested empirically by the econometric method and case analysis. Banks stability is changed by banking industry competition which will influence banking system stability. This influence is probed by the theory analysis, quantitative analysis and econometric test. Finally, after analyzing two links: from banking industry competition to banks stability and from banks stability to banking system stability, the relationship between the banking industry competition and China's banking system stability is probed.
Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test, some conclusions are drawn in the dissertation. (1) The results of Herfindahl index and PR method both show that the banking industry competition improves evi-dently. The results of the means of combining the quantitative index analysis method with the econometric analysis method prove that both main banks stability and banking system stability have improved on the whole. (2) The improvement of banking industry competition will decrease banks' spread and ameliorates banks' efficiency and differenttiation. The decrease of the spread is harmful to banks stability, while the increase of the efficiency and the differentiation within some scope is useful to banks stability. (3) The result of the empirical test shows that banking industry competition is useful to main banks stability in our country. In practice, spread is the most important and macro-efficiency is the second. The micro-efficiency is the least important while differentiation doesn't function wholly. (4) Banking system stability is influenced by banks stability through negative externalities of the infection directly. Besides this direct route, large banks stability can influence banking system stability indirectly through affecting the economy development environment in some extent. Banking system is more stable with the improvement of banks stability. According to the empirical test based on the data of China's banking industry, the main banks stability is useful to banking system stability in our country. (5) There is a positive correlation in long term between banking industry competition and banking system stability. If they are in disequilibrium, they will return to equilibrium at a certain rate.
In the framework of banking industry competition, banks stability and banking system stability, this dissertation's innovative contributions can be classified into three points. (1) The evolution of China's banking industry competition is inspected by Herfindahl index and PR method respectively, combining the structuralism and New Industry Organization theory measurement methods. (2) The mechanism of the influence of banking industry competition on banks stability is analyzed deeply. This dissertation argues that the spread, efficiency and differentiation are the mechanisms and this conclusion is tested based on the data of China's banking industry. (3) The functional principle of the influence of banks stability on banking system stability is probed. This dissertation argues that banks stability is useful to banking system stability and this conclusion is tested empirically.
Despites the author's endeavor, there are still some defects in this dissertation. Therefore, some limits of this dissertation are discussed in the end of the dissertation and the gap will be met in the further detailed study.
引文
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