国际资本流入对我国房地产业的影响及应对措施
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摘要
随着我国经济的不断发展,城市化进程不断加快,加上人民币不断升值及国际房地产金融环境等多种因素影响,使得我国房地产业越来越成为国际资本投资偏好的主要领域,且呈现投资规模逐步扩大,投资区域向二三线城市扩张的特点。与此同时,我国房地产价格也随之不断追高,房地产市场出现了过热的迹象。在此种背景之下,研究国际资本流入对我国房地产业的影响已成金融管理的热点难点问题。
但由于我国幅员辽阔,区域特点不一,这也使得国际资本的流入对我国房地产业的影响程度不一,利弊作用不一。因此,本文在分析国际资本流入对我国经济社会宏观影响的同时,选取湖北荆州这样一个中部省份欠发达的地级市作为微观层面的研究对象,目的就在于当前我们不仅要研究其共性问题,更要探求其个性特征。国际资本流入到底对我国宏观与微观产生了哪些影响,影响程度有多深,应该如何应对,应该采取何种差异化对策等都是本文将要回答的问题。
鉴于此,本文首先论述了国际资本流动等相关基本概念,接着列述了国际资本流入的渠道与方式,然后通过实证研究和规范分析等方法,剖析了国际资本流入的主要动因。最后通过引用房地产价格决定模型,选取荆州作为案例,采集相关数据进行整理分析,客观地评价了国际资本流入的宏微观利弊,并提出了具体的措施建议,以期为政府决策提供参考,帮助市场主体进行理性投资。
With the continuous economic growth and the acceleration of the urbanization process in China, in addition the influence of various factors such as the RMB appreciation and the financial environment of international real estate market, the Chinese real estate industry, which characterized by more extended investment scale and the investment area expanding to rear line cities, has increasingly became a preferential area of international capital investment. At the same time, the price of the real estate in China has continuously risen; the real estate market has appeared an overheated indication. Under this circumstance, to investigate the influences of the international capital permeating the real estate industry in our country has become a hot spot and difficult issue within the area of financial management.
However, because our country has a vast territory and different regional peculiarities, the impact and pros and cons of the international capital inflow on Chinese real estate also vary considerably. Therefore, while analyzing the macroscopic impact of the international capital inflow on Chinese economy, we choose Jingzhou, Hubei, a regional level underdeveloped city in central China as a microcosmic model, in order to probe not only the general question but also specific issues. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following questions: what kind of influence, both macroscopic and microcosmic, of national capital inflow on Chinese economy; the degree of this influence; how to cope with it; if we should apply different strategies; what kind of the strategies, etc.
In view of this, the paper firstly discussed some relative basic concept on the flow of international capital and then elaborated the channels and methods of the international capital inflow. We also dissected the main reasons of the international capital inflow through the method of empirical study and standard analyze. Finally, by introducing the model of price determination,choosing Jingzhou city in as a microcosmic model and gathering relative data, we objectively evaluate the pros and cons of the international capital inflow on Chinese real estate and put forward the detailed suggestion and solution, in order to provide the references for government’s decision and help the market to make rational investment.
但由于我国幅员辽阔,区域特点不一,这也使得国际资本的流入对我国房地产业的影响程度不一,利弊作用不一。因此,本文在分析国际资本流入对我国经济社会宏观影响的同时,选取湖北荆州这样一个中部省份欠发达的地级市作为微观层面的研究对象,目的就在于当前我们不仅要研究其共性问题,更要探求其个性特征。国际资本流入到底对我国宏观与微观产生了哪些影响,影响程度有多深,应该如何应对,应该采取何种差异化对策等都是本文将要回答的问题。
鉴于此,本文首先论述了国际资本流动等相关基本概念,接着列述了国际资本流入的渠道与方式,然后通过实证研究和规范分析等方法,剖析了国际资本流入的主要动因。最后通过引用房地产价格决定模型,选取荆州作为案例,采集相关数据进行整理分析,客观地评价了国际资本流入的宏微观利弊,并提出了具体的措施建议,以期为政府决策提供参考,帮助市场主体进行理性投资。
With the continuous economic growth and the acceleration of the urbanization process in China, in addition the influence of various factors such as the RMB appreciation and the financial environment of international real estate market, the Chinese real estate industry, which characterized by more extended investment scale and the investment area expanding to rear line cities, has increasingly became a preferential area of international capital investment. At the same time, the price of the real estate in China has continuously risen; the real estate market has appeared an overheated indication. Under this circumstance, to investigate the influences of the international capital permeating the real estate industry in our country has become a hot spot and difficult issue within the area of financial management.
However, because our country has a vast territory and different regional peculiarities, the impact and pros and cons of the international capital inflow on Chinese real estate also vary considerably. Therefore, while analyzing the macroscopic impact of the international capital inflow on Chinese economy, we choose Jingzhou, Hubei, a regional level underdeveloped city in central China as a microcosmic model, in order to probe not only the general question but also specific issues. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following questions: what kind of influence, both macroscopic and microcosmic, of national capital inflow on Chinese economy; the degree of this influence; how to cope with it; if we should apply different strategies; what kind of the strategies, etc.
In view of this, the paper firstly discussed some relative basic concept on the flow of international capital and then elaborated the channels and methods of the international capital inflow. We also dissected the main reasons of the international capital inflow through the method of empirical study and standard analyze. Finally, by introducing the model of price determination,choosing Jingzhou city in as a microcosmic model and gathering relative data, we objectively evaluate the pros and cons of the international capital inflow on Chinese real estate and put forward the detailed suggestion and solution, in order to provide the references for government’s decision and help the market to make rational investment.
引文
[1]田宝良.国际资本流动—分析、比较与监管.北京:中国金融出版社, 2004
[2]欧阳志刚.外商直接投资及其对经济增长的贡献.财经科学, 2004(6): 21-26
[3]刘莉亚.境外“热钱”是否推动了股市、房市的上涨? ----来自中国市场的证据.金融研究, 2008(10): 48-65
[4]张庭宾.反热钱战争.北京:中国经济出版社, 2008
[5]易宪容.房地产与金融市场.北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2007
[6]徐滇庆.房价与泡沫经济.北京:机械工业出版社, 2007
[7] Charles P. Kindleberger, Robert Aliber. Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. Fourth Edition, 2005
[8]刘洪玉,郑思齐,沈悦.中国房地产市场中的“泡沫”与“过热”问题分析.建筑经济, 2003(2): 36-37
[9]朱妍汐,唐焱.中国房价收入比实证研究及发展改进.中国发展, 2010(5): 37-38
[10] Joseph Eugene“Joe”Stiglitz, Carl E. Walsh. Principles of Macroeconomics, Fourth Edition, W. W. Norton & Company, December 2005
[11]陈全功.国际收支对货币供给的影响与汇率制度改革.北京:经济科学出版社, 2006
[12]温铁军,杨殿闯,刘健芝等.土地制度变迁与国家建设—尼泊尔土改与东亚经验的比较研究.见蔡继明,邝梅主编.论中国土地制度改革---中国土地制度改革国际研讨会论文集.北京, 2008.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2009: 621-629
[13]周霞,黄宇昕.我国房地产市场中内外资企业并购行为的比较研究.中国房地产, 2007, 318(6): 35-36
[14]江锦凡.外国直接投资在中国经济增长中的作用机制.世界经济, 2004, 1: 21-25
[15]刘鸿儒等.变革:中国金融体制发展六十年.北京:中国金融出版, 2009
[16]钱信松.外商直接投资对我国外溢效应的实证分析.商场现代化, 2010, 34: 247-248
[17]沈坤荣,耿强.外商直接投资的外溢效应分析.金融研究, 2000, 237(3): 103-106
[18]李利明.背水一战:中国国有商业银行股份制改革.北京:中信出版社, 2008
[19]邹至庄.中国经济转型.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2005
[20]鞠方.房地产泡沫研究(基于实体经济与虚拟经济的二元结构分析框架).北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2008
[21]建设部课题组.住房住房制度改革和房地产市场专题研究.北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2007
[22]魏丽华.外商直接投资技术外溢正、负效应的探讨.江西价格月刊, 2007, 3: 42-43
[23] Heitor Almeida, Murillo Campello, Crocker Liu. The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets. Review of Finance, 2006, 3
[24]易纲.中国金融改革思考录.北京:商务印书馆, 2009
[25]刘薇.房地产基本制度与政策.北京:化学出版社, 2010
[26]胡祖六.金融与现代化.北京:清华大学出版社, 2009
[27]李扬,胡滨.金融危机背景下的全球金融监管改革.北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2010
[28]刘明康.中国银行业改革开放30年.北京:中国金融出版社, 2009
[29]吴晓灵.中国金融体制改革30年回顾与展望.北京:人民出版社, 2008
[30]姜波克,杨长江.国际金融学.高等教育社, 2008
[31]曹芳萍.对我国住房抵押贷款证券化若干问题的思考.北京林业大学学报, 2003, 1: 55-59
[32] John D. Benjamin, Peter Chinloy, G. Donald Jud. Real Estate Versus Financial Wealth in Consumption. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2004, 3
[33] Bertrand Renaud. The 1985 to 1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: An Overview. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 1997, 5(1)
[34] Hany S. Guirguis, Christos I. Giannikos, Randy I. Anderson. The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2005, 30(1)
[35]中南财经政法大学课题组,张东.房地产投机问题研究.见:银行与投资——中国投资学会2005—2006年度获奖科研课题选编.北京, 2005
[36]王元龙.人民币汇率走势回顾与展望.当代财经, 2007, 3: 31-33
[37]罗云毅.中国经济增长中投资贡献率的研究.宏观经济研究, 1999, 2: 26-30
[38]赵婷婷. FDI与中国产业结构优化升级研究: [硕士学位论文].南京:河海大学, 2006
[39]凌晨雪.浅析外资房企投资中国房地产市场的若干问题.中国集体经济, 2010, 25: 28-35
[40] Daniel Fernández-Kranz, Mark T. Hon. A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2006, 32(4)
[41] Suresh Radhakrishnan, Bin Srinidhi. Sharing Demand Information in a Value Chain: Implications for Pricing and Profitability. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2005, 24(1)
[42] Liu Hungyu, Yun W. Park, Zheng Siqi. The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China. International Real Estate Review, 2002, 5(1): 40-60
[43] Ivo De Wit, Ronald van Dijk. The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2003, 26(1)
[44] M. Davis, J. Heathcote. Housing and the Business Cycle. International Economic Review, 2001
[45] Michele Aghassi, Dimitris Bertsimas. Robust game theory. Mathematical Programming, 2006, 107: 1-2
[46] R. E. Miller, M. L. Lahr. A Taxonomy of Ex-traction. The 17th International Input-out-put Conference, 2001(4): 1-30
[47] Dvornak N., Kohler M. Housing Wealth, Stock MarketWealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2003, 2007
[48] Case K. E., Quigley J. M., Shiller R. J. Comparingwealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. National Bureau of Economic Research Working PaperSeries, No 8606, 2001
[49] Friedman, Milton. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957
[50]刘水杏.房地产业与相关产业关联度的国际比较.财贸经济, 2004, 4: 33-39
[51]高培勇.“十二五”时期的中国财税改革.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2010
[2]欧阳志刚.外商直接投资及其对经济增长的贡献.财经科学, 2004(6): 21-26
[3]刘莉亚.境外“热钱”是否推动了股市、房市的上涨? ----来自中国市场的证据.金融研究, 2008(10): 48-65
[4]张庭宾.反热钱战争.北京:中国经济出版社, 2008
[5]易宪容.房地产与金融市场.北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2007
[6]徐滇庆.房价与泡沫经济.北京:机械工业出版社, 2007
[7] Charles P. Kindleberger, Robert Aliber. Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. Fourth Edition, 2005
[8]刘洪玉,郑思齐,沈悦.中国房地产市场中的“泡沫”与“过热”问题分析.建筑经济, 2003(2): 36-37
[9]朱妍汐,唐焱.中国房价收入比实证研究及发展改进.中国发展, 2010(5): 37-38
[10] Joseph Eugene“Joe”Stiglitz, Carl E. Walsh. Principles of Macroeconomics, Fourth Edition, W. W. Norton & Company, December 2005
[11]陈全功.国际收支对货币供给的影响与汇率制度改革.北京:经济科学出版社, 2006
[12]温铁军,杨殿闯,刘健芝等.土地制度变迁与国家建设—尼泊尔土改与东亚经验的比较研究.见蔡继明,邝梅主编.论中国土地制度改革---中国土地制度改革国际研讨会论文集.北京, 2008.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2009: 621-629
[13]周霞,黄宇昕.我国房地产市场中内外资企业并购行为的比较研究.中国房地产, 2007, 318(6): 35-36
[14]江锦凡.外国直接投资在中国经济增长中的作用机制.世界经济, 2004, 1: 21-25
[15]刘鸿儒等.变革:中国金融体制发展六十年.北京:中国金融出版, 2009
[16]钱信松.外商直接投资对我国外溢效应的实证分析.商场现代化, 2010, 34: 247-248
[17]沈坤荣,耿强.外商直接投资的外溢效应分析.金融研究, 2000, 237(3): 103-106
[18]李利明.背水一战:中国国有商业银行股份制改革.北京:中信出版社, 2008
[19]邹至庄.中国经济转型.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2005
[20]鞠方.房地产泡沫研究(基于实体经济与虚拟经济的二元结构分析框架).北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2008
[21]建设部课题组.住房住房制度改革和房地产市场专题研究.北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2007
[22]魏丽华.外商直接投资技术外溢正、负效应的探讨.江西价格月刊, 2007, 3: 42-43
[23] Heitor Almeida, Murillo Campello, Crocker Liu. The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets. Review of Finance, 2006, 3
[24]易纲.中国金融改革思考录.北京:商务印书馆, 2009
[25]刘薇.房地产基本制度与政策.北京:化学出版社, 2010
[26]胡祖六.金融与现代化.北京:清华大学出版社, 2009
[27]李扬,胡滨.金融危机背景下的全球金融监管改革.北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2010
[28]刘明康.中国银行业改革开放30年.北京:中国金融出版社, 2009
[29]吴晓灵.中国金融体制改革30年回顾与展望.北京:人民出版社, 2008
[30]姜波克,杨长江.国际金融学.高等教育社, 2008
[31]曹芳萍.对我国住房抵押贷款证券化若干问题的思考.北京林业大学学报, 2003, 1: 55-59
[32] John D. Benjamin, Peter Chinloy, G. Donald Jud. Real Estate Versus Financial Wealth in Consumption. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2004, 3
[33] Bertrand Renaud. The 1985 to 1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: An Overview. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 1997, 5(1)
[34] Hany S. Guirguis, Christos I. Giannikos, Randy I. Anderson. The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2005, 30(1)
[35]中南财经政法大学课题组,张东.房地产投机问题研究.见:银行与投资——中国投资学会2005—2006年度获奖科研课题选编.北京, 2005
[36]王元龙.人民币汇率走势回顾与展望.当代财经, 2007, 3: 31-33
[37]罗云毅.中国经济增长中投资贡献率的研究.宏观经济研究, 1999, 2: 26-30
[38]赵婷婷. FDI与中国产业结构优化升级研究: [硕士学位论文].南京:河海大学, 2006
[39]凌晨雪.浅析外资房企投资中国房地产市场的若干问题.中国集体经济, 2010, 25: 28-35
[40] Daniel Fernández-Kranz, Mark T. Hon. A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2006, 32(4)
[41] Suresh Radhakrishnan, Bin Srinidhi. Sharing Demand Information in a Value Chain: Implications for Pricing and Profitability. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2005, 24(1)
[42] Liu Hungyu, Yun W. Park, Zheng Siqi. The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China. International Real Estate Review, 2002, 5(1): 40-60
[43] Ivo De Wit, Ronald van Dijk. The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2003, 26(1)
[44] M. Davis, J. Heathcote. Housing and the Business Cycle. International Economic Review, 2001
[45] Michele Aghassi, Dimitris Bertsimas. Robust game theory. Mathematical Programming, 2006, 107: 1-2
[46] R. E. Miller, M. L. Lahr. A Taxonomy of Ex-traction. The 17th International Input-out-put Conference, 2001(4): 1-30
[47] Dvornak N., Kohler M. Housing Wealth, Stock MarketWealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2003, 2007
[48] Case K. E., Quigley J. M., Shiller R. J. Comparingwealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. National Bureau of Economic Research Working PaperSeries, No 8606, 2001
[49] Friedman, Milton. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957
[50]刘水杏.房地产业与相关产业关联度的国际比较.财贸经济, 2004, 4: 33-39
[51]高培勇.“十二五”时期的中国财税改革.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2010