战争设计工程中战法与装备集成分析方法研究
|
摘要
如何有效地应对战争系统研究中的复杂性挑战,是军事理论研究的核心问题,也是军事理论发展的重要推动力。为了获取战争的胜利,对抗各方都尽其所能创新干预策略,使得干预策略具有强烈的创新性和不确定性,继而造就了战争复杂系统的一个本质性特征——不可重复性。作为一种应对战争系统复杂性挑战的工程化方法,战争设计工程建立在战争复杂系统“不可重复性”这一本质特征的基础上,其基本思路在于:运用群体认知的螺旋式演化应对研究过程中复杂性,使得所设计的干预策略不断演化。
战争设计工程中,群体认知螺旋式演化的载体是战争复杂系统的干预策略,而干预策略可分为战法和装备两大类。由于个人认知能力的有限性和信息化时代战争系统的复杂性,战争系统的干预策略由不同部门分别制定,割裂了战法与装备之间相互促进的内在联系,其结果是战法和装备难以匹配。战争是“核心利益的零和博弈”,这要求战争局中人充分利用战法与装备之间的相互促进关系,对其干预策略进行统一设计与整合,使之成为有机整体。由此可见,战法分析与装备研究相互分离的现实和它们应该相协调的内在需求之间存在矛盾,战争设计工程中战法与装备集成分析就是针对这一矛盾而提出的解决方案。为了解决这一矛盾,论文从理论基础、方法框架、工程技术和应用示例四个层面进行分析讨论,具体而言,包括以下七个方面内容:
首先,分析与总结战法与装备集成分析的理论基础——战争设计工程理论。系统地分析战争系统研究过程中所面临的复杂性挑战,基于这些挑战,根据分布式认知理论以及复杂性问题研究中的“两重逻辑原则”与“回归环路原则”,归纳总结了战争设计工程方法四维框架——目标维、逻辑维、组织维和技术维,并且分析了各维度的含义及其关系,进一步丰富和完善了战争设计工程理论体系,为战法与装备集成分析提供了理论基础。
第二,研究战法与装备集成分析的内在机制——由“两重逻辑原则”和“回归环路原则”组合而成的三重循环迭代机制,并且运用微分对策模型对该机制进行形式化表述。在此基础上,提出了具有可操作性的战法与装备集成分析框架,该框架从逻辑上分为四个循环迭代的子过程:研讨未来情景约束、研讨干预策略、建立效果模型、基于效果反思,并且分析各个子过程主要任务及其关系、群体专家的协作模式、以及定性与定量分析的结合模式。
第三,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第一个子过程——研讨未来情景约束。借助于情景规划概念,提出了战法与装备集成分析中的未来情景构造方法;基于未来情景,分析如何确定问题求解的切入点;基于概念模型结构化描述方法,研究了未来情景的规范化描述方法。
第四,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第二个子过程——研讨干预策略。在对各类定性研讨方法总结归纳的基础上,研究该子过程中三大任务——研讨己方策略、研讨对方反制策略、定性评价与改进干预策略——的研讨组织形式及其专家的分工协作模式。
第五,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第三个子过程——建立效果模型。首先研究如何把第二个子过程的成果——战法与装备结合模式——转化为概念模型的方法。根据链式模型概念,提出干预策略效果链的概念和建模方法,该建模方法把干预策略效果链模型分为七个环节,并且分析了每一个环节中的信息对抗效果和火力对抗效果的转换表达式。
第六,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第四个子过程——基于效果反思。首先提出了确保反思广度和深度不断增加的“反思框架”,在此基础上,借鉴企业过程重组(BPR)概念,提出了作战过程重组(OPR)的概念;基于价值链和效果链模型,提出军事信息价值链(MIVC)的概念;借助OPR和MIVC使得反思能够突破干预策略参数量变范围的限制,从而构建出基于效果反思的完整规范。
第七,应用研究。以获取制空权的设计为例,在整体上展示战法与装备集成分析方法的基本过程;以潜舰导弹作战效果分析为例,展示链式效果建模和基于效果反思的基本方法。
How to deal with the challenges from researching on the war complex system isthe core problem of military research and an important impetus of the development ofmilitary theory. In order to win the victory players of the war system try their best tocreate strategies, so their strategies are creative and uncertain. These uncertainties oftheir strategies contribute to un-repeatability which is the essential character of warcomplex systems. As the theorythat gives voice to challenges of complexityof the warcomplexsystem,WarDesignEngineering(WDE)isbasedontheun-repeatabilityofthewar complex system. And its basic idea is that the spiral development of groupcognitionis applied to deal with the complex of war systems to make strategies spirallydevelop.
Thecarrierofgroupcognition’sspiraldevelopmentinWDEistheplay’sstrategieswhich are classified into two classes: tactics and weapon equipments. Because of oneperson’s limited cognitional ability and complexity of war system in the era ofinformation, the play’s strategies are drawn up and carried out bydifferent departmentsand people, which breaks the interactive relation between tactics and weaponequipments and tactics-weapons matching. On the other hand, because the war is a coreinterest zero-sum gaming, every player must take advantage of the tactics-weaponsrelationship, and design tactics and weapons simultaneously, and make the tactics andweapons become organic. From above analysis, it is a contradiction that tactics analysisandweaponsdevelopmentaredividedinpracticebuttheymustbeorganicintheory.Toresolve this contradiction, the method of Integratedly Analyzing Tactics and Equipment(IATE) in WDE is brought forward. The theoryfoundation, the method framework, theengineering technique and the application demonstrations of IATE are discussed toexpound how to solve the contradiction. The main contents and fruits of this paper areoutlinedasfollows:
Firstly, the theory of WDE which is the theoretical basis of IATE is analyzed andsummarized. The challenges from researching on the war complex system are studiessystematically. Basedon thesechallenges,accordingtodistributedcognitiontheorytwoprinciples of researching complex problems (dia-logical principle and iterativeprinciple), four-dimension framework of WDE is presented, i.e., objective dimension,logical dimension, organizational dimension and technique dimension. And verydimension’s means and relationships of dimensions are discussed. So the system ofWDEtheoryisenrichedanddeveloped.
Secondly, the mechanism of IATE is researched, which is composed of threeiterative processes that are constituted by the dia-logical principle and the iterativeprinciple, and described by differential game in detail. Based on the mechanism, the framework of IATE is put forward, which is composed of four sub-processes thatconstitute iterative relationships. Four sub-processes are discussing future scenariorestriction, discussing strategies, building the effect model and re-thinking based oneffects. Furthermore, the relationship of sub-processes, the pattern of group experts’cooperation,andthepatternofintegratingquantitativeanalysiswithqualitativeanalysisisstudied.
Thirdly, the first sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussing futurescenario restriction, is studied. The method of scenario plan in IATE is brought forthbased on the conception of scenario plan. Furthermore, the method of focusingproblemin the future scenario isstudied. And the normalizing description of future scenario inIATEisputforward.
Fourthly, the second sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussingstrategies, is studied. Three sub-task of this sub-process, i.e., discussing the player’sown strategies, discussing the counterworker’s rival strategies, evaluating qualitativelyand mending strategies, are studied based on summarizing main methods of discussion,including the organizational pattern of discussion and the cooperation pattern of groupexperts.
Fifthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., building the effectmodel, is studied. The method of building conception model based on the result of thesecond sub-process, i.e., the pattern of combining tactics with equipments,is discussed.According to the conception of chain model, the conception of strategies’effect chainmodel and the method of building an effect chain model are brought out based onconception models.The effect chain model is constituted byseven sectors, furthermorethe transform formulations of effects of information action and firepower action in verysectorisputforward.
Sixthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., re-thinking based oneffects, is studied. The re-thinking framework based on effects is present, which canmake the range of re-thinking and the depth of re-thinking increase constantly.According to the Business Process Reengineering (BPR), the conception of OperationProcess Reengineering (OPR) is brought out based on the request of re-thinkingframework. And according the Value Chain (VC), the conception of MilitaryInformation Value Chain (MIVC) is brought forth based on the effect chain model. Thecomplete Re-thinking rules is established, which make re-thinking beyond the range ofquantitativechangestheonthebasisofOPRandMIVC.
Seventhly, two application demonstrations are studied. The demonstration ofgaining mastery of the air is analyzed to demonstrate the basic process of IATA inWDE. Furthermore, the demonstration of analyzing the effects of the anti-ship missilefrom submarines isstudiedtodemonstratehow to buildtheeffect chainmodel andhowtore-thinkbasedonOPRandMIVC.
战争设计工程中,群体认知螺旋式演化的载体是战争复杂系统的干预策略,而干预策略可分为战法和装备两大类。由于个人认知能力的有限性和信息化时代战争系统的复杂性,战争系统的干预策略由不同部门分别制定,割裂了战法与装备之间相互促进的内在联系,其结果是战法和装备难以匹配。战争是“核心利益的零和博弈”,这要求战争局中人充分利用战法与装备之间的相互促进关系,对其干预策略进行统一设计与整合,使之成为有机整体。由此可见,战法分析与装备研究相互分离的现实和它们应该相协调的内在需求之间存在矛盾,战争设计工程中战法与装备集成分析就是针对这一矛盾而提出的解决方案。为了解决这一矛盾,论文从理论基础、方法框架、工程技术和应用示例四个层面进行分析讨论,具体而言,包括以下七个方面内容:
首先,分析与总结战法与装备集成分析的理论基础——战争设计工程理论。系统地分析战争系统研究过程中所面临的复杂性挑战,基于这些挑战,根据分布式认知理论以及复杂性问题研究中的“两重逻辑原则”与“回归环路原则”,归纳总结了战争设计工程方法四维框架——目标维、逻辑维、组织维和技术维,并且分析了各维度的含义及其关系,进一步丰富和完善了战争设计工程理论体系,为战法与装备集成分析提供了理论基础。
第二,研究战法与装备集成分析的内在机制——由“两重逻辑原则”和“回归环路原则”组合而成的三重循环迭代机制,并且运用微分对策模型对该机制进行形式化表述。在此基础上,提出了具有可操作性的战法与装备集成分析框架,该框架从逻辑上分为四个循环迭代的子过程:研讨未来情景约束、研讨干预策略、建立效果模型、基于效果反思,并且分析各个子过程主要任务及其关系、群体专家的协作模式、以及定性与定量分析的结合模式。
第三,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第一个子过程——研讨未来情景约束。借助于情景规划概念,提出了战法与装备集成分析中的未来情景构造方法;基于未来情景,分析如何确定问题求解的切入点;基于概念模型结构化描述方法,研究了未来情景的规范化描述方法。
第四,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第二个子过程——研讨干预策略。在对各类定性研讨方法总结归纳的基础上,研究该子过程中三大任务——研讨己方策略、研讨对方反制策略、定性评价与改进干预策略——的研讨组织形式及其专家的分工协作模式。
第五,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第三个子过程——建立效果模型。首先研究如何把第二个子过程的成果——战法与装备结合模式——转化为概念模型的方法。根据链式模型概念,提出干预策略效果链的概念和建模方法,该建模方法把干预策略效果链模型分为七个环节,并且分析了每一个环节中的信息对抗效果和火力对抗效果的转换表达式。
第六,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第四个子过程——基于效果反思。首先提出了确保反思广度和深度不断增加的“反思框架”,在此基础上,借鉴企业过程重组(BPR)概念,提出了作战过程重组(OPR)的概念;基于价值链和效果链模型,提出军事信息价值链(MIVC)的概念;借助OPR和MIVC使得反思能够突破干预策略参数量变范围的限制,从而构建出基于效果反思的完整规范。
第七,应用研究。以获取制空权的设计为例,在整体上展示战法与装备集成分析方法的基本过程;以潜舰导弹作战效果分析为例,展示链式效果建模和基于效果反思的基本方法。
How to deal with the challenges from researching on the war complex system isthe core problem of military research and an important impetus of the development ofmilitary theory. In order to win the victory players of the war system try their best tocreate strategies, so their strategies are creative and uncertain. These uncertainties oftheir strategies contribute to un-repeatability which is the essential character of warcomplex systems. As the theorythat gives voice to challenges of complexityof the warcomplexsystem,WarDesignEngineering(WDE)isbasedontheun-repeatabilityofthewar complex system. And its basic idea is that the spiral development of groupcognitionis applied to deal with the complex of war systems to make strategies spirallydevelop.
Thecarrierofgroupcognition’sspiraldevelopmentinWDEistheplay’sstrategieswhich are classified into two classes: tactics and weapon equipments. Because of oneperson’s limited cognitional ability and complexity of war system in the era ofinformation, the play’s strategies are drawn up and carried out bydifferent departmentsand people, which breaks the interactive relation between tactics and weaponequipments and tactics-weapons matching. On the other hand, because the war is a coreinterest zero-sum gaming, every player must take advantage of the tactics-weaponsrelationship, and design tactics and weapons simultaneously, and make the tactics andweapons become organic. From above analysis, it is a contradiction that tactics analysisandweaponsdevelopmentaredividedinpracticebuttheymustbeorganicintheory.Toresolve this contradiction, the method of Integratedly Analyzing Tactics and Equipment(IATE) in WDE is brought forward. The theoryfoundation, the method framework, theengineering technique and the application demonstrations of IATE are discussed toexpound how to solve the contradiction. The main contents and fruits of this paper areoutlinedasfollows:
Firstly, the theory of WDE which is the theoretical basis of IATE is analyzed andsummarized. The challenges from researching on the war complex system are studiessystematically. Basedon thesechallenges,accordingtodistributedcognitiontheorytwoprinciples of researching complex problems (dia-logical principle and iterativeprinciple), four-dimension framework of WDE is presented, i.e., objective dimension,logical dimension, organizational dimension and technique dimension. And verydimension’s means and relationships of dimensions are discussed. So the system ofWDEtheoryisenrichedanddeveloped.
Secondly, the mechanism of IATE is researched, which is composed of threeiterative processes that are constituted by the dia-logical principle and the iterativeprinciple, and described by differential game in detail. Based on the mechanism, the framework of IATE is put forward, which is composed of four sub-processes thatconstitute iterative relationships. Four sub-processes are discussing future scenariorestriction, discussing strategies, building the effect model and re-thinking based oneffects. Furthermore, the relationship of sub-processes, the pattern of group experts’cooperation,andthepatternofintegratingquantitativeanalysiswithqualitativeanalysisisstudied.
Thirdly, the first sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussing futurescenario restriction, is studied. The method of scenario plan in IATE is brought forthbased on the conception of scenario plan. Furthermore, the method of focusingproblemin the future scenario isstudied. And the normalizing description of future scenario inIATEisputforward.
Fourthly, the second sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussingstrategies, is studied. Three sub-task of this sub-process, i.e., discussing the player’sown strategies, discussing the counterworker’s rival strategies, evaluating qualitativelyand mending strategies, are studied based on summarizing main methods of discussion,including the organizational pattern of discussion and the cooperation pattern of groupexperts.
Fifthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., building the effectmodel, is studied. The method of building conception model based on the result of thesecond sub-process, i.e., the pattern of combining tactics with equipments,is discussed.According to the conception of chain model, the conception of strategies’effect chainmodel and the method of building an effect chain model are brought out based onconception models.The effect chain model is constituted byseven sectors, furthermorethe transform formulations of effects of information action and firepower action in verysectorisputforward.
Sixthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., re-thinking based oneffects, is studied. The re-thinking framework based on effects is present, which canmake the range of re-thinking and the depth of re-thinking increase constantly.According to the Business Process Reengineering (BPR), the conception of OperationProcess Reengineering (OPR) is brought out based on the request of re-thinkingframework. And according the Value Chain (VC), the conception of MilitaryInformation Value Chain (MIVC) is brought forth based on the effect chain model. Thecomplete Re-thinking rules is established, which make re-thinking beyond the range ofquantitativechangestheonthebasisofOPRandMIVC.
Seventhly, two application demonstrations are studied. The demonstration ofgaining mastery of the air is analyzed to demonstrate the basic process of IATA inWDE. Furthermore, the demonstration of analyzing the effects of the anti-ship missilefrom submarines isstudiedtodemonstratehow to buildtheeffect chainmodel andhowtore-thinkbasedonOPRandMIVC.
引文
[1]王成红,王飞跃.复杂系统研究中几个值得关注的问题[J].控制理论与应用,2005,22(4):604~605.
[2]张彩江.系统决策的复杂性及其方法论研究[D].华南理工大学博士学位论文,2003:12~16,73~79.
[3] Murrary P J. So What Is New About Complexity [J]. Systems Research andBehavioralScience,2003,20:409-417.
[4]张彩江,马庆国.复杂性的定义,对象与层次问题:一个综述[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(6):644-650.
[5] P.Cvitanovic.UniversalityinChaos[M].AdamHilger,1984.
[6] HaoBai-lin.Chaos[M].WordScientific,1990.
[7]赵松年.非线性科学——它的内容、方法和意义[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
[8] Cariani P. Emergence and Artificial life.in G. G. Langton ( ed ). Artificial LifeⅡ[ A].NewYork:AddisonWesley,1992:235-238.
[9] Holland,J.H.Emergence:FromChaostoOrder[M].NewYork:HelixBooks,1998.
[10] PeitgenH-O,JurgensH,SauapeD.ChaosandFractals[M].Springer-Verlag,1992.
[11] Barabasi A.L., Stanley H.E. Fractal Concepts in Surface Growth. Cambridge, UK:CambridgeUniversityPress,1995.
[12] Maj. Susan E. Durham. Chaos Theory for the Practical Military Mind[EB/OL].http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/acsc/97-0229.pd.
[13] Linda P. Beckerman. The Non-Linear Dynamics of War[EB/OL].http://www.calrcaesco.com/beckermn/nonlindy.htm,1999.
[14] Gustaaf Geeraerts. Non-linear Dynamics and the Prediction of War[EB/OL].http://poli.vub.ac.be/public/pole-papers/pole0401.htm,1998.
[15] Paul Darbyshire, Hussein Abbass, etc. A Prototype Design for Studying EmergentBattle field Behaviourh trough Multi-Agent Simulation.The Fourth Japan-AustraliaJoint Workshop on Intelligent and Evolutionary Systems, Hayama-machi, Japan,2000.
[16]马龙,柳少军.组织决策过程及其涌现性研究[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1687~1690.
[17] Michael K. Lauren. Characterizing Complexity on the Battlefield Using FractalStatistics[EB/OL].http://www.cna.org/isaac/on-line-papers.htm.
[18] Yaneer Bar-Yam. Complexity of Military Conflict: Multiscale Complex SystemsAnalysis of Littoral Warfare[EB/OL].http://necsi.edu/projects/yaneer/SSG_NECSI_3_Litt.pdf,2003.
[19] HollandJ H, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Bulids Complexity [M]. New York:Addison-Wesley,1995.
[20] Holland, J. H. Adaptation in Nature and Artificial Systems: An IntroductoryAnalysis with Application to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence. 2ndCambridge,MITPress,1992.
[21] A. Ilachinski, Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat (ISAAC): AnAritificial-LifeApproachtoLandWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.ena.org.
[22] A. Ilachinski, Enhanced ISAAC Neural Simulation Toolkit (Einstein): AnArtificial-Life Laboratory for Exploring Self-organized Emergence in LandCombat[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[23]西蒙著,武夷山译.人工科学:复杂性面面观.上海科技教育出版社,2004.
[24]沙基昌.复杂巨系统与战争设计工程[C].军事运筹学会’2005会议论文集“一体化联合作战与军事运筹研究”,2005年11月:3~11.
[25]王飞跃.关于复杂系统研究的计算理论与方法[J].中国基础科学,2004,5:3~10.
[26]王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统——关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2005,1(4):25-35.
[27]胡晓峰.战争模拟:复杂性的问题与思考[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1659~1666.
[28]军事科学院军事历史研究部著.海湾战争全史[M].北京:解放军出版社,2000.
[29]中国人民解放军总参军训部编著.科索沃战争研究[M].北京:解放军出版社,2000.
[30]王永明,刘小力,肖允华主编.伊拉克战争研究[M].北京:军事科学出版社,2003.
[31]章杨著.美国的战争:从阿富汗到伊拉克[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003.
[32]沙基昌,毛赤龙,吴永波,陈超.战争设计工程技术研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(6):66-70.
[33] Andrew P. Frits. Formulation of an Integrated Robust Design and TacticsOptimization Process for Undersea Weapon Systems[D]. School of AerospaceEngineering,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,December2004.
[34]周国梅,傅小兰.分布式认知——一种新的认知观点[J].心理科学进展,2002,10(2),147-153.
[35]卢明森何名申.创新思维学引论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[36]陈超.战争设计工程中的群体专家智慧集成研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2007年12月.
[37]约翰N·沃菲尔德著,曹庆仁,甘大力等译.复杂性的系统设计理论与方法.中国矿业大学出版社,2006.
[38] Beyerchen Alan. Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War [J].InternationalSecurity,winter,1992:59-90.
[39] DavidS,Alberts,ThomasJCzerwinski.Complexity,Global Politics,andNationalSecurity[EB/OL].Http://www.dodccrp.org.
[40] JulianPalmore.WarfareAnalysisandComplexity[R].MilitaryOperationsReserchSocietyMini-Symposium,1997.
[41] 269次香山科学会议组委会. 269次香山科学会议综述[EB/OL].http://www.xssc.ac.cn/Web/ListConfs/ConfBrief.asp?rno=861.
[42]战争复杂性与军事系统工程——军事系统工程专业委员会第十六届学术年会研讨成果综述[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2006,20(4):70-73.
[43] James Moffat. ComplexityTheory and Network Centric Warfare[M]. CCRP Press,20003.
[44]李如生.非平衡态热力学和耗散结构[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1986.
[45]普利高津与耗散结构理论[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,1982.
[46] Haken H. Information and Self-Organization: A macroscopic Approach toComplexSystems[M],Springer-Verlag,1988.
[47] Kauffman, S. A. The Origins of Order, Self-organization and SectioninEvolution[M].NewYork,OxfordUniversityPress,Inc.,1993.
[48] V.I.Arnold.CatastropheTheory[M].SpringerVelag,1986.
[49]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海交通大学出版社,1987.
[50]周涛柏文洁汪秉宏刘之景.复杂网络研究概述[J].物理,2005,34(1):31-36.
[51] Albert R, Barabasi A L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks [J]. Rev. Mod.Phys.,2002,74:47-97.
[52] NewmanME J,Barabsi A L, WattsDJ.TheStructureand DynamicsofNetworks[M].PrincetonUniversityPress,2006.
[53]张金春,翟景春,王杰.自组织理论在军校研究生教育中的应用[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(2):238-241.
[54]王荣辉.关于军事技术创新主体的思考[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2004,18(1):94-97.
[55]张金春,李彪,刘景权.自组织理论在军事系统中的应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(5):11-13.
[56]宋黎.战斗力系统自组织演化分析.南京政治学院学报,2005,21(6):86-89.
[57] Dockery, John; Chiatti, Stefano. Application of catastrophe theory to problems ofmilitaryanalysis.EuropeanJournal ofOperational Research.Volume,January1986,24(1):46-53.
[58]卜先锦,沙基昌.系统突变理论的战场描述终态条件及模型[J].火力与指挥控制,2005,30(5):5-11.
[59]段锁力,王曙钊,徐成果.采用混沌技术提高军事通信的保密性[J].电子技术应用,2007年第2期:132-134.
[60]袁晓凤,李永彬.混沌编码与保密通讯[J].计算机应用,2000年,20(6):8-10.
[61]方锦清,赵耿,罗晓曙.混沌保密通信应用研究的进展[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002,20(1):6-18.
[62]杨懿,刘涵,武昌,齐胜利.维修保障系统效能的分形评估算法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2006年,18(10),2925~2928.
[63]郑素文,杜峰.一类军事竞争系统的非线性分析[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2003,17(2):14~16.
[64]赵晓哲,郭锐.现代化战争的复杂性[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1659~1666.
[65] A. Ilachinski. Towards a Science of Experimental Complexity: An Artificial-lifeApproachtoModelingWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.cna.org/isaac.
[66]金伟新,肖田元,胡晓峰,马亚平.战争CAWSOM模型[J].系统仿真学报,2006年,15(增刊2),613~620.
[67]胡晓峰,司光亚,罗批,杨镜宇战争复杂系统与战争模拟研究[J].系统仿真学报,2005年,17(11),2769~2774.
[68]陶凤翔.军事复杂适应系统模型及应用研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院硕士学位论文,2003年11月.
[69]迟妍.基于复杂适应系统理论的作战模型研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2004年10月.
[70]吴俊,谭跃进.复杂网络抗毁性测度研究[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(2):128-131.
[71]谭东风.一种基于随机映射的战斗效能模型.国防科技大学学报,2006,28(6):102-107.
[72] Horne, Gary E., Maneuver Warfare Distillations: Essence notVerisimilitude[EB/OL].http://www.can.on.
[73] Horne, Gary, Capt Bates, Capt Bargeron. Quantitative Support to Decision MakersUsingAgentBasedModelingofConflicts[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[74] Ronald F. A. Woodsman, Agent Based Simulation of Military Operations OtherThanWarSmallUnitCombat[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[75] DaveTaylor.USMCGroundCombatStudy[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[76]胡晓峰.战争工程:信息时代的战争方法学[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2004,18(2):3~7.
[77]胡晓峰,杨镜宇.战争复杂系统的体系建模与分析仿真研究[C].香山科学会议第269次学术研讨会,2005年11月:141~155.
[78]董忠林,姜丁,罗批,司光亚.复杂适应系统理论在战争系统建模中的应用现状研究,2006年,17(5):5-9.
[79]胡晓峰,罗批,司光亚,章国春.战争复杂系统建模与仿真[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2005.
[80] Julian I. Palmore. Warfare Analysis and Complexity Mini-Symposium/Workshop[R].MilitaryOperationsResearchSocietyNo.0704-0188,1999.
[81] Randy J. Dean. Warfare Analysis Laboratory 2000[J]. JOHNS HORKINGS APLTECHNICALDIGEST,2000,21(2):231~237.
[82] DOD Regulation 5000.2-R, Change 4, 15 March 1996.“Mandatory Proceduresfor Major Defense Acquisition Programs(MDAPs) and Major AutomatedInformationSystem(MAIS)AcquisitionPrograms”.
[83] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction.Requirements GenerationSystem[R].CJCSI3170.01A,10,August,1999.
[84] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction. Operation of the JointCapabilities Integration and Development System[R]. CJCSM3170.01, 24, June,2003.
[85] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaffInstruction.JointCapabilitiesIntegrationandDevelopmentSystem[R].CJCSM3170.01C,24,June,2003.
[86] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaffInstruction.JointCapabilitiesIntegrationandDevelopmentSystem[R].CJCSM3170.01E,11,May,2005.
[87] Perry W L,et al.Measure of Effectiveness for the Information Age Navy:Theeffects of Network-centric Operations on Combat Outcomes [R].Santa Monica,RandMR-1449,2002.
[88]徐根初.关于军事决策科学化的思考[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:7~14.
[89]江敬灼.综合集成法在作战实验室中的应用[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:187~194.
[90]韩雁飞,江敬灼.综合集成理论技术发展分析[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2006,20(1):3~7.
[91]李忠民,汤淑春,陈邵峰,陈健.基于综合集成方法的武器装备采办风险管理[J].系统工程与电子技术,2005,27(10):1760~1763.
[92]李德华.“军事战略综合集成研讨厅”总体设计思想[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:113~146.
[93]司光亚,胡晓峰.一个面向战略决策的综合集成研讨环境[J].通信学报,1999,20(9):10~15.
[94]胡晓峰,司光亚.战略决策综合集成研讨环境SDE98的体系结构[J].小型微型计算机系统,1999,20(2):88~91.
[95]司光亚.战略决策综合集成研讨与模拟环境研究与实现[J].系统工程,2000,18(5):79~80.
[96]胡晓峰,司光亚,吴琳,黄谦.SDS2000:一个定性定量结合的战略决策综合集成研讨与模拟环境[J].系统仿真学报,2000,12(6):595~599.
[97]王立红,吴琳,司光亚,周庆龙.战略模拟中群决策方法管理平台的设计与实现[J].计算机仿真,2003,20(8):7~9.
[98]常显奇,李元左,刘曙云等.空间军事系统综合集成研讨厅内容体系的研究与建设[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,20(6):86~90.
[99]王斌,常显奇,李元左.空间军事系统综合集成研讨厅体系概念研究[J].装备指挥技术学院学报,2003,14(1):46~49.
[100]金鑫,李元左.空间军事复杂决策系统问题求解的综合集成方法[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2005,2(2):87~92.
[101]韩祥兰,吴慧中,陈圣磊,万建明.武器装备论证综合集成研讨厅系统[J].南京理工大学学报,2005,29(4):446~450.
[102]孙柏林.美军作战实验情况综述[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:41~66.
[103]熊新平.“千年挑战2002”启示[J].现代防御技术,2002,30(5):22-24.
[104] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Vision 2010,5123 Joint Staff,Pentagon, Washington,D.C.,1996.
[105] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Vision 2020,,5123 Joint Staff,Pentagon, Washington,D.C.,1999.
[106] US Department of Defense. The Defense Acquisition System. DoD Directive5000.2,2003May.
[107] US Department of Defense. The Defense Acquisition System. DoD Directive5000.2,2003May.
[108] Farkas K. & Thurston, P. Evolutionary Acquisition Strategies and SpiralDevelopment Processes: Developing Affordable, Sustainable Capability to theWarfighters[J].ProgramManager,2003,Jul/Aug,p.11.
[109] US Department of the Air Force. EvolutionaryAcquisition for C2 Systems[R].AirForceInstruction,2000, 63-123.
[110] Wade Henning. Spiral Development in Action: A Case Study of SpiralDevelopment in the Global Hawk Unmaned Aerial Vehicle[D]. US: NavalPostgraduateSchool,December2005.
[111]军事科学院世界军事研究部.俄联邦军事基本情况[M],北京:军事科学出版社,2004年版:198-209.
[112] Richard Darilek, Bruce Pirnie, Steve Drezner, Leland Joe. Issues and Insights fromtheArmyTechnologySeminarGame[R].SantaMonica:Rand,MR-1299-A,1997.
[113] Matsumura etc. Analytic Support to the Defense Science Board: Tactics andTechnology for the 21st Century Military Superiority. Documented Briefing. TheRANDCoporation,(DB-198-A).
[114] PLT/CO/TM Branch of DTDD. Exploiting Precision Maneuver: A Experiment toEvaluateM1A2Tactics,TechiquesandProcedures[R].September-October1998.
[115] Lartigue Louise. Extending the Evaluation of Tactical Reconnaissance inSimulation Through the Demonstration of intent[D]. University of Central Florida,1998.
[116] Wilburn c. Evaluation of Land Reconnaissance Tactical Behaviors Early in thesystemes Development of A New Weapon System Using ConstructiveSimulation[D].UniversityofCentralFlorida,1999.
[117] Andrew P. Frits; Weston, N.; Pouchet C.; Kusmik, A. Examination of a TorpedoPerformance Space and its Relation to the System Design Space[CA] The 9thMulti-Disciplinary Analysis and OptimizationSymposium[C], AIAA, Atlanta.September4-6,2002,AIAA-2002-5634.
[118]孙家胜.创造发明技法[M].天津:天津人民出版社,1998:106-115.
[119]经理人培训项目组.人力资源工具箱[M].中国人民大学出版社,2006.3.
[120]甘华鸣等著.创新的策略:通用方法指南[M].北京:红旗出版社,2002:1,380-408.
[121]钱平吉.创新一点通——造性思维及发明法杂议[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社,1999:82-86.
[122]徐国祥.统计预测和决策(第二版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[123]李耀东.综合集成研讨厅设计与实现中的若干问题研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2003:82~86.
[124] Senge Peter M.The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The LearningOrganization[M].NewYork:CurrencyDoubledayPublishingGroup,1990.
[125]刘畅.《色戒》:故事与呈现[J].书屋,2008年第2期:33-35.
[126] Joseph Lampel, Jamal Shamsie, Theresa K Lant. The Business Of Culture:Strategic Perspectives On Entertainment and Media[M]. Lawrence ErlbaumAssociates, London,2006.
[127]丁志华.以网络智暴法为核心的群体创新理论及其关键技术研究.重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2003:7-9.
[128] Chuah J, Zhang J, Johnson T R. Distributed cognition of a navigational instrumentdisplaytask. In: Hahn M, Stoness S C. ed. Proceedings of the TwentyFirst AnnualConference of the Cognitive Science Society. Mahweh, New Jersey:Lawrence-Erlbaumm,1999.789.
[129] Cole M, Engestrom Y. A cultural-historical approach to distributed cognition. In:Salomon G. ed. Distributed cognitions: psychological and educationalconsiderations.USA:CambridgeUniversityPress,1993.
[130] Editor’s instruction. In: Salomon G. ed. Distributed cognitions: psychological andeducationalconsiderations.USA:CambridgeUniversityPress,1993.
[131]克劳塞维茨,军事科学院译.战争论[M].北京:解放军出版社,1964年:50-51.
[132]赫拉克利特著,罗宾森英译,楚荷中译.赫拉克利特著作残篇[M].广西师范大学出版社,2007.
[133] P. Cilliers. Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems[M].NewYork:Routledge,1998.9.
[134]卡尔·波普尔著,周昌忠,蒋弋为译.猜想与反驳[M].上海:上海译文出版社,2005.
[135]舒炜光,邱仁宗.当代西方科学哲学述评(第二版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007.
[136]邢润川,李侠.后现代主义消解科学主义的策略[A].见:郭贵春,潘屹东.科学大战与后现代主义.科学出版社,2006.
[137]埃德加·莫兰著,陈一壮译.复杂思想:自觉的科学.北京:北京大学出版社,2001.
[138]李少军.建设性后现代主义与复杂性探索[A].见:北京大学现代科学与哲学研究中心编著.复杂性新探.北京:人民出版社,2007:532-542.
[139]帕斯卡尔著,何兆武译.思想录[M].北京:商务印书馆,1985年:1-8,27-36.
[140]王飞跃.平行系统方法与复杂系统的管理和控制[J].控制与决策,2004,19(3):485-489.
[141]王寅.认知语言学与两代认知科学[J].外语学刊,2002年第1期:9-14.
[142]罗姆·哈瑞著,潘屹东译.认知科学哲学导论[M].上海科技教育出版社,2006.
[143] Callan,R.ArtificialIntelligence[M].PalgraveMacmillan,2003.
[144] Searle J.R. Is the Brains Mind a Computer Program? [J]. Scientific American,January,1990:20-25.
[145]朱志方.认知科学对现代哲学的挑战[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版),2002年第1期.
[146]熊十力.新唯识论[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006.
[147] http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/cognitive-science.
[148]周昊天,傅小兰.认知科学——新千年的前沿领域[J].心理科学进展2005,13(4):388-397.
[149]卢明森何名申.创新思维学引论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[150]戴汝为.钱学森论大成智慧工程[J].中国工程科学,2001,3(12):14-20.
[151]戴汝为.大成智慧工程[J].冶金自动化,2000年第1期:1-6.
[152]约翰.阿奎拉,戴维.伦菲尔德等著,宋正华等译,决战信息时代,长春:吉林人民出版社,2001.
[153] RobertO.Keohane,JosephS.Nye,PowerandInterdependenceintheinformationAge,ForeignAffairs,1998(September/October)
[154]迈克尔.奥汉隆,王振西主译,高科技与新军事革命,北京:新华出版社,2001.
[155]尹承魁等著,迎接新军事革命的挑战,北京:国防大学出版社,1998.
[156] Levchuk Y.N, Levchuk G.M, K.R. Pattipati. A Systematic Approach to OptimizeOrganizations Operating in Uncertain Environments: Design Methodology andApplications. Proceedings of the 7-th International Command & Control Research&TechnologySymposium,2002,QuébecCity,QC,Canada,Sept,2002.
[157] Levchuk, G.M., Y. N. Levchuk, Jie Luo, K.R. Pattipati, and D.L. Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part I: Mission Planning”, in IEEETransactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 32, No. 3, May 2002, pp.346-359.
[158] Levchuk, G.M., Y. N. Levchuk, Jie Luo, K.R. Pattipati, and D.L. Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part II: Organizational Structure”, in IEEETransactionsonSMC,Vol.32,No.3,May2002,pp.360-375.
[159] Levchuk,G.M.,Y.N.Levchuk,C.Meirina,andK.R.Pattipati,andD.L.Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part III: Modeling Congruent, RobustOrganizations”,submittedtoIEEESMC,2003.
[160]汉语大辞典编辑委员会.汉语大辞典(第五分册)[M].上海:汉语大辞典出版社,1990.
[161]姜椿芳,梅益.中国大百科全书(军事Ⅱ卷)[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2004年.
[162] Cochrane Charles B. Introduction to Defense Acquisition Management (SixthEdition)[M].DAU,Nov2003.
[163]铝建伟,陈霖,郭庆华.武器装备研制的风险分析与风险管理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:11,167-187.
[164]总装备部电子信息基础部.现代武器装备概论[M].北京:原子能出版社,2003:64.
[165]沙基昌.数理战术学[M].北京:科学出版社,2004年6月.
[166]余春.战争形态与武器特征[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2005年9月.
[167]迈克尔?奥汉隆著,王振西译.高科技与新军事革命[M].北京:新华出版社,2004:26-28.
[168]陈勇,姚有志.面向信息化战争的军事理论创新[M].北京:解放军出版社,2004:5-33.
[169]王保存.世界新军事变革新论[M].北京:解放军事出版社,2005:1-4.
[170]林建超,吉文明.世界新军事变革概论[M].北京:解放军事出版社,2005:47-51.
[171]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯军事文集(第1卷)[M].北京:战术出版社,1981:16-17.
[172] LCDR R. Bronson Armstrong. Proposed Communications ArchitectureRecommendationstoEnableJointVision2020[A].IEEEAerospaceConference[C],2003,vol.3:1187-1193.
[173]李学丽,解保军.马克思主义哲学新编[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004年:163-165.
[174]张洪钺,王青编著.最优控制理论与应用[M].高等教育出版社,2006.
[175] Wack, P. Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead[J]. Harvard Business Review,September-October,1985(5):72-89.
[176] Robbins, Gordon C. Scenario Planning [J], Public Management (US), March 95Vol.77Issue3,4-5.
[177] Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M]. Chichester:Wiley,1996.
[178] Christopher Zegras, Joseph Sussman, Christopher Conklin. Scenario Planning forStrategic Regional Transportation Planning [J]. ASCE Journal of Urban PlanningandDevelopment,March2004,pp.2-13.
[179] MichelGodet.CreatingFutures[M].London:Economica,2001:269.
[180]徐钰华.基于情景规划的项目不确定性管理研究[D].南京:东南大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[181]阚毓伟.情景规划理论与应用研究[D].上海:上海大学硕士学位论文,2001.
[182] O'Brien,FA.Scenarioplanning-lessonsforpracticefromteachingandlearning[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,FEB2004,152(3):709-722.
[183] Bent, RW; Van Hentenryck, P. Scenario-based planning for partially dynamicvehicle routing with stochastic customers[J]. Operations Research, NOV-DEC2004,52(6):977-987.
[184] Shiftan, Y; Kaplan, S; Hakkert, S. Scenario building as a tool for planning asustainable transportation system[J]. Transportation Research Part D -TransportandEnvironment,SEP20038,(5):323-342.
[185] Beraldi, P; Ghiani, G; Guerriero, E; Grieco, A. Scenario-based planning forlot-sizing and scheduling with uncertain processing times[J]. International JournalofProductionEconomics,2006MAY,101(1):140-149.
[186]王华亭,冯俊文,张松叶.基于情景规划的东营港区发展战略思考[J].经济研究参考,2006年82期.
[187] Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M]. Chichester:Wiley,1996.
[188] Wachs M. ForecastingVersus Envisioning: A New Window on the Future. JournaloftheAmecicanPlanningAssociation,200167(4):367-372.
[189] Wilkinson,L.HowToBuildScenarios.Wired(Scenarios:l.0l SpecialEdition),September,1995:74—81.
[190] Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an UncertainWorld[M].NewYork:CurrencyDoubleday.1996.
[191]任义广.信息质量对反舰导弹作战效果影响的分析方法研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2007年12月.
[192]吴永波.基于本体的任务空间概念建模研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2005年12月.
[193]吴永波,沙基昌,谭东风.基于本体的两阶段任务空间概念模型开发方法[J].国防科技大学学报,2005,27(6):120-125.
[194]黄俊领,谭东风,张向波.军事仿真概念模型开发研究[J].计算机仿真,2005,22(2):15-18.
[195]汪文元,沙基昌,谭东风.基于概念模型工程的工作流建模研究[J].计算机仿真,2006,28(1):139-142.
[196] Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. CMMS Representations[EB/OL].http://www.dmso.mil.
[197] Defense Modeling and Simulation Office.“Conceptual models of the MissionSpace(CMMS)TechnicalFramework”[EB/OL].http://www.dmso.mil.
[198] Lee W. Lacy, Wayne Randolph , Bruce Harris.“Developing a ConsensusPerspectiveonConceptual ModelsforSimulationSystems”.Proceedingsofthethe2001SpringSimulationInteroperabilityWorkshop[R],2001.
[199] Harvard Business School. SWOT Analysis I: Looking Outside for Threats andOpportunities[M]HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,Jun2005.
[200] Harvard Business School. SWOT Analysis II: Looking Inside for Strengths andWeaknesses[M]HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,Jun2005.
[201] Martin Helande. A Guide to the Ergonomics of Manufacturing[M]. London: Talor&Francis,1995.
[202]孙林岩.人因工程[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2004.
[203]胡晓峰,司光亚,吴琳,张过春.战争模拟引论[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2004.
[204]康凤举,杨惠珍,高立娥.现代仿真技术与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[205]迈克?波特著,陈小悦译.竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社.1997,2-32
[206]王田苗,胡耀光编著.基于信息价值链的企业流传再造与信息集成[M],清华大学出版社,2002.20-30
[207]赵耀文.核心能力评价的价值工程方法研究[J].价值工程,2006,5.54-56
[208]李康昱.试论价值工程在企业核心能力识别中的应用[J].价值工程,2005,1.54-57
[209]庄建芳.价值链会计研究综述[J].财会月刊,2005,11.54-56
[210]赵民杰,金萍,任晓娜.客户关系管理的价值链模型研究[J],现代管理科学,2005,2.29-31.
[211]李群明.供应链的建模与管理研究[D].中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所. 2001.20-30
[212]黄小原,李宝家.供应链集成化动态模型与控制[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(4).254-260.
[213]陈志祥,马士华,陈荣秋等.供应链管理与基于活动的成本控制策略[J].工业工程与管理,1999,(5):32-36.
[214] Simon Croom. Supply Chain Management: an analytical frame-work for criticalliterature review[J]. European J.of Purchasing & Supply Management,2000(6):67-83.
[215]蓝伯雄,郑小娜,徐心.电子商务时代的供应链管理[J].中国管理科学,2000,8(3):1-7.
[216]陈国权.供应链管理[J].中国软科学,1999:101-104.
[217]董安邦,廖志英.供应链管理的研究综述[J].工业工程,2002,5(5):16-20.
[218]徐学文,王寿云.现代作战模拟[M].北京:科学出版社,2001年:164-180.
[219] T. N. Dupuy. Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat[M].Trans-AtlanticPublications,1992.
[220]梁振兴.发展综合电子信息系统迎接信息化战争的挑战[J].电讯技术,第39卷第1期.
[221] EdmardWaltz著,吴汉平,等译.信息战原理与实践[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004(1).
[222] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff.《JointDoctrineforInformationOperation》[R].JointPub3-13,9October1998
[223]钟义信.信息科学原理.北京邮电大学出版社,北京,1996.
[224]沙基昌,陈超,毛赤龙等.信息化战争高级形态与高级信息武器装备的概念研究[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2004年18(4):3-6.
[225] Paul M. Parashak III. The Effects Of Quality And Timeliness Of TargetingInformation On Submarine Employment Of Long Range Anti-Ship CruiseMissiles[D].NavalPostgraduateSchool:Master’sThesis,2005
[226] David S. Alberts, John J. Garstka, Richard E. Hayes, et al. UnderstandingInformationAgeWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.dodccrp.org,2001.
[227] Walter Perry, David Signori, John Boon. Exploring Information Superiority: AMethodology for Measuring the Quality of Information and Its Impact on SharedAwareness[EB/OL],SantaMonica,CA:RAND,2003.
[228]刘千里,朱建冲.反舰导弹超视距攻击作战的计算机仿真研究[J].海军工程大学学报,2004,16(1):108-110.
[229]赵正业.潜艇火控原理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003,321-328.
[230]何文涛,王基组,张永刚.超视距反舰导弹捕捉能力[J].火力与指挥控制,2005,30(4):18-19.
[231] Hammer M. Reengineering work: Don't automate, obliterate. Harvard BusinessReview.1990:104-112.
[232] Hammer M., ChampyJ.. Reengineering the Corporation: A Minifesto for BusinessRevolution.HarperBusiness,1993.
[233] Hammer M. Beyong Reengineering: How the process s-centered Organization isChangingOurWorkandOurlives.HarperBusiness,1996.
[234]丙明杰.再造流程.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1997.
[235]涂智寿.实现供应链信息化的重要因素——BPR[J].商业研究,2003年18期:97-99.
[236]孔学峰.企业信息化过程中的“信息悖论”[J].企业活力,2004年第1期:50-51.
[237]周桂梅.对企业信息化中“黑洞”成因的分析及应对策略[J].2004年第4期:85-87.
[238]姚建荣.再论“IT黑洞”[J].中国管理信息化,2005年第12期:9-10.
[239]熊水华.BPR流程选择与再设计方法研究.广州:华南理工大学大学硕士学位论文,2004年2月:1-2.
[240]联想集团有限公司.联想ERP成功后的回忆[J].企业管理,2002年11月:83-85.
[241] Cho, C; Cho, NW. Design of a BPR-based information strategy planning (ISP)framework[C]. Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2005, PT3,3482:1297-1305.
[242] Wang CT; Wang, JY; Chu, TH; Chao, CC. A BPR support forComputer-Integrated Manufacturing management[J]. International Journal ofIndustrial Engineering Theory Applications and Practice, 2001 DEC, 8(4):319-328.
[243] Ng, J.K.C.; Ip, W.H.; Lee, T.C. Paradigm for ERP and BPR integration[J].InternationalJournalofProductionResearch,1999Jun.,37(9):2093-2108.
[244] Komiya, Fumio; Mitsukuni, Koshichiro; Komoda, Norihisa. Efficient method ofsetting BPR themes suitable for ERP package selection[C]. Proc IEEE Int ConfSystManCybern[A],3:2104-2109.
[245]桂良军,薛恒新,黄作明.BPR、ERP、SCM、CRM的集成研究[J].统计与决策,2004年11期:132-133.
[246]梅绍祖,冯建中BPR与信息技术系统工程理论与实践2003年第2期:45-50.
[247]陈京民,徐航.基于BPR的信息系统开发方法研究[J].中国管理信息化,2006,9(7):18-20.
[248]宋伟,王玉恒.关注流程:BPR、BPM与ERP管理思想的比较[J].商场现代化2006年7月(下旬刊):42.
[249] Davenport H T, Short J. The New Industrial Engineering: Information TechnologyandBusinessProcessRedesign[J].SloanManag.Rev.1990,Summer:7-13.
[250]步磊,王云峰,熊立华.企业价值·价值链·业务流程[J].价值工程,2002,5:14-16.
[251]李源,樊治平,李为.企业过程再造的价值工程方法[J].工业工程与管理.1999,2:39-42.
[252]何苏华.企业过程再造与价值工程的集成[J].工业工程与管理,2000,6:34-36.
[253]张向宏,王明明,李颖新.价值工程方法在业务流程重组实施中的运用[J].科学学研究,2002,20(4):420-422.
[254]武春友,戴大双.价值工程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1992.
[255]高鹏峰.电信运营企业BPR中的业绩评价研究[D]北京邮电大学硕士学位论文,2003,6:3-4.
[256]施纳斯著,陈工译.管理未来:动态财务管理[M].电子工业出版社,2004.
[257]特纳著,何烺译.管理者的管理工具(第二版)[M].企业管理出版社,2006.
[258]叶俊,赵衡秀.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005,92-96.
[259]徐建志,刘鼎臣.水面舰艇规避来袭导弹效果的建模计算与分析[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2003第4期:26-29.
[2]张彩江.系统决策的复杂性及其方法论研究[D].华南理工大学博士学位论文,2003:12~16,73~79.
[3] Murrary P J. So What Is New About Complexity [J]. Systems Research andBehavioralScience,2003,20:409-417.
[4]张彩江,马庆国.复杂性的定义,对象与层次问题:一个综述[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(6):644-650.
[5] P.Cvitanovic.UniversalityinChaos[M].AdamHilger,1984.
[6] HaoBai-lin.Chaos[M].WordScientific,1990.
[7]赵松年.非线性科学——它的内容、方法和意义[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
[8] Cariani P. Emergence and Artificial life.in G. G. Langton ( ed ). Artificial LifeⅡ[ A].NewYork:AddisonWesley,1992:235-238.
[9] Holland,J.H.Emergence:FromChaostoOrder[M].NewYork:HelixBooks,1998.
[10] PeitgenH-O,JurgensH,SauapeD.ChaosandFractals[M].Springer-Verlag,1992.
[11] Barabasi A.L., Stanley H.E. Fractal Concepts in Surface Growth. Cambridge, UK:CambridgeUniversityPress,1995.
[12] Maj. Susan E. Durham. Chaos Theory for the Practical Military Mind[EB/OL].http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/acsc/97-0229.pd.
[13] Linda P. Beckerman. The Non-Linear Dynamics of War[EB/OL].http://www.calrcaesco.com/beckermn/nonlindy.htm,1999.
[14] Gustaaf Geeraerts. Non-linear Dynamics and the Prediction of War[EB/OL].http://poli.vub.ac.be/public/pole-papers/pole0401.htm,1998.
[15] Paul Darbyshire, Hussein Abbass, etc. A Prototype Design for Studying EmergentBattle field Behaviourh trough Multi-Agent Simulation.The Fourth Japan-AustraliaJoint Workshop on Intelligent and Evolutionary Systems, Hayama-machi, Japan,2000.
[16]马龙,柳少军.组织决策过程及其涌现性研究[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1687~1690.
[17] Michael K. Lauren. Characterizing Complexity on the Battlefield Using FractalStatistics[EB/OL].http://www.cna.org/isaac/on-line-papers.htm.
[18] Yaneer Bar-Yam. Complexity of Military Conflict: Multiscale Complex SystemsAnalysis of Littoral Warfare[EB/OL].http://necsi.edu/projects/yaneer/SSG_NECSI_3_Litt.pdf,2003.
[19] HollandJ H, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Bulids Complexity [M]. New York:Addison-Wesley,1995.
[20] Holland, J. H. Adaptation in Nature and Artificial Systems: An IntroductoryAnalysis with Application to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence. 2ndCambridge,MITPress,1992.
[21] A. Ilachinski, Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat (ISAAC): AnAritificial-LifeApproachtoLandWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.ena.org.
[22] A. Ilachinski, Enhanced ISAAC Neural Simulation Toolkit (Einstein): AnArtificial-Life Laboratory for Exploring Self-organized Emergence in LandCombat[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[23]西蒙著,武夷山译.人工科学:复杂性面面观.上海科技教育出版社,2004.
[24]沙基昌.复杂巨系统与战争设计工程[C].军事运筹学会’2005会议论文集“一体化联合作战与军事运筹研究”,2005年11月:3~11.
[25]王飞跃.关于复杂系统研究的计算理论与方法[J].中国基础科学,2004,5:3~10.
[26]王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统——关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2005,1(4):25-35.
[27]胡晓峰.战争模拟:复杂性的问题与思考[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1659~1666.
[28]军事科学院军事历史研究部著.海湾战争全史[M].北京:解放军出版社,2000.
[29]中国人民解放军总参军训部编著.科索沃战争研究[M].北京:解放军出版社,2000.
[30]王永明,刘小力,肖允华主编.伊拉克战争研究[M].北京:军事科学出版社,2003.
[31]章杨著.美国的战争:从阿富汗到伊拉克[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003.
[32]沙基昌,毛赤龙,吴永波,陈超.战争设计工程技术研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(6):66-70.
[33] Andrew P. Frits. Formulation of an Integrated Robust Design and TacticsOptimization Process for Undersea Weapon Systems[D]. School of AerospaceEngineering,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,December2004.
[34]周国梅,傅小兰.分布式认知——一种新的认知观点[J].心理科学进展,2002,10(2),147-153.
[35]卢明森何名申.创新思维学引论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[36]陈超.战争设计工程中的群体专家智慧集成研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2007年12月.
[37]约翰N·沃菲尔德著,曹庆仁,甘大力等译.复杂性的系统设计理论与方法.中国矿业大学出版社,2006.
[38] Beyerchen Alan. Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War [J].InternationalSecurity,winter,1992:59-90.
[39] DavidS,Alberts,ThomasJCzerwinski.Complexity,Global Politics,andNationalSecurity[EB/OL].Http://www.dodccrp.org.
[40] JulianPalmore.WarfareAnalysisandComplexity[R].MilitaryOperationsReserchSocietyMini-Symposium,1997.
[41] 269次香山科学会议组委会. 269次香山科学会议综述[EB/OL].http://www.xssc.ac.cn/Web/ListConfs/ConfBrief.asp?rno=861.
[42]战争复杂性与军事系统工程——军事系统工程专业委员会第十六届学术年会研讨成果综述[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2006,20(4):70-73.
[43] James Moffat. ComplexityTheory and Network Centric Warfare[M]. CCRP Press,20003.
[44]李如生.非平衡态热力学和耗散结构[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1986.
[45]普利高津与耗散结构理论[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,1982.
[46] Haken H. Information and Self-Organization: A macroscopic Approach toComplexSystems[M],Springer-Verlag,1988.
[47] Kauffman, S. A. The Origins of Order, Self-organization and SectioninEvolution[M].NewYork,OxfordUniversityPress,Inc.,1993.
[48] V.I.Arnold.CatastropheTheory[M].SpringerVelag,1986.
[49]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海交通大学出版社,1987.
[50]周涛柏文洁汪秉宏刘之景.复杂网络研究概述[J].物理,2005,34(1):31-36.
[51] Albert R, Barabasi A L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks [J]. Rev. Mod.Phys.,2002,74:47-97.
[52] NewmanME J,Barabsi A L, WattsDJ.TheStructureand DynamicsofNetworks[M].PrincetonUniversityPress,2006.
[53]张金春,翟景春,王杰.自组织理论在军校研究生教育中的应用[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(2):238-241.
[54]王荣辉.关于军事技术创新主体的思考[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2004,18(1):94-97.
[55]张金春,李彪,刘景权.自组织理论在军事系统中的应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(5):11-13.
[56]宋黎.战斗力系统自组织演化分析.南京政治学院学报,2005,21(6):86-89.
[57] Dockery, John; Chiatti, Stefano. Application of catastrophe theory to problems ofmilitaryanalysis.EuropeanJournal ofOperational Research.Volume,January1986,24(1):46-53.
[58]卜先锦,沙基昌.系统突变理论的战场描述终态条件及模型[J].火力与指挥控制,2005,30(5):5-11.
[59]段锁力,王曙钊,徐成果.采用混沌技术提高军事通信的保密性[J].电子技术应用,2007年第2期:132-134.
[60]袁晓凤,李永彬.混沌编码与保密通讯[J].计算机应用,2000年,20(6):8-10.
[61]方锦清,赵耿,罗晓曙.混沌保密通信应用研究的进展[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002,20(1):6-18.
[62]杨懿,刘涵,武昌,齐胜利.维修保障系统效能的分形评估算法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2006年,18(10),2925~2928.
[63]郑素文,杜峰.一类军事竞争系统的非线性分析[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2003,17(2):14~16.
[64]赵晓哲,郭锐.现代化战争的复杂性[J].系统仿真学报,2003年,15(12),1659~1666.
[65] A. Ilachinski. Towards a Science of Experimental Complexity: An Artificial-lifeApproachtoModelingWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.cna.org/isaac.
[66]金伟新,肖田元,胡晓峰,马亚平.战争CAWSOM模型[J].系统仿真学报,2006年,15(增刊2),613~620.
[67]胡晓峰,司光亚,罗批,杨镜宇战争复杂系统与战争模拟研究[J].系统仿真学报,2005年,17(11),2769~2774.
[68]陶凤翔.军事复杂适应系统模型及应用研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院硕士学位论文,2003年11月.
[69]迟妍.基于复杂适应系统理论的作战模型研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2004年10月.
[70]吴俊,谭跃进.复杂网络抗毁性测度研究[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(2):128-131.
[71]谭东风.一种基于随机映射的战斗效能模型.国防科技大学学报,2006,28(6):102-107.
[72] Horne, Gary E., Maneuver Warfare Distillations: Essence notVerisimilitude[EB/OL].http://www.can.on.
[73] Horne, Gary, Capt Bates, Capt Bargeron. Quantitative Support to Decision MakersUsingAgentBasedModelingofConflicts[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[74] Ronald F. A. Woodsman, Agent Based Simulation of Military Operations OtherThanWarSmallUnitCombat[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[75] DaveTaylor.USMCGroundCombatStudy[EB/OL].http://www.can.org.
[76]胡晓峰.战争工程:信息时代的战争方法学[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2004,18(2):3~7.
[77]胡晓峰,杨镜宇.战争复杂系统的体系建模与分析仿真研究[C].香山科学会议第269次学术研讨会,2005年11月:141~155.
[78]董忠林,姜丁,罗批,司光亚.复杂适应系统理论在战争系统建模中的应用现状研究,2006年,17(5):5-9.
[79]胡晓峰,罗批,司光亚,章国春.战争复杂系统建模与仿真[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2005.
[80] Julian I. Palmore. Warfare Analysis and Complexity Mini-Symposium/Workshop[R].MilitaryOperationsResearchSocietyNo.0704-0188,1999.
[81] Randy J. Dean. Warfare Analysis Laboratory 2000[J]. JOHNS HORKINGS APLTECHNICALDIGEST,2000,21(2):231~237.
[82] DOD Regulation 5000.2-R, Change 4, 15 March 1996.“Mandatory Proceduresfor Major Defense Acquisition Programs(MDAPs) and Major AutomatedInformationSystem(MAIS)AcquisitionPrograms”.
[83] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction.Requirements GenerationSystem[R].CJCSI3170.01A,10,August,1999.
[84] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction. Operation of the JointCapabilities Integration and Development System[R]. CJCSM3170.01, 24, June,2003.
[85] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaffInstruction.JointCapabilitiesIntegrationandDevelopmentSystem[R].CJCSM3170.01C,24,June,2003.
[86] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaffInstruction.JointCapabilitiesIntegrationandDevelopmentSystem[R].CJCSM3170.01E,11,May,2005.
[87] Perry W L,et al.Measure of Effectiveness for the Information Age Navy:Theeffects of Network-centric Operations on Combat Outcomes [R].Santa Monica,RandMR-1449,2002.
[88]徐根初.关于军事决策科学化的思考[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:7~14.
[89]江敬灼.综合集成法在作战实验室中的应用[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:187~194.
[90]韩雁飞,江敬灼.综合集成理论技术发展分析[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2006,20(1):3~7.
[91]李忠民,汤淑春,陈邵峰,陈健.基于综合集成方法的武器装备采办风险管理[J].系统工程与电子技术,2005,27(10):1760~1763.
[92]李德华.“军事战略综合集成研讨厅”总体设计思想[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:113~146.
[93]司光亚,胡晓峰.一个面向战略决策的综合集成研讨环境[J].通信学报,1999,20(9):10~15.
[94]胡晓峰,司光亚.战略决策综合集成研讨环境SDE98的体系结构[J].小型微型计算机系统,1999,20(2):88~91.
[95]司光亚.战略决策综合集成研讨与模拟环境研究与实现[J].系统工程,2000,18(5):79~80.
[96]胡晓峰,司光亚,吴琳,黄谦.SDS2000:一个定性定量结合的战略决策综合集成研讨与模拟环境[J].系统仿真学报,2000,12(6):595~599.
[97]王立红,吴琳,司光亚,周庆龙.战略模拟中群决策方法管理平台的设计与实现[J].计算机仿真,2003,20(8):7~9.
[98]常显奇,李元左,刘曙云等.空间军事系统综合集成研讨厅内容体系的研究与建设[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,20(6):86~90.
[99]王斌,常显奇,李元左.空间军事系统综合集成研讨厅体系概念研究[J].装备指挥技术学院学报,2003,14(1):46~49.
[100]金鑫,李元左.空间军事复杂决策系统问题求解的综合集成方法[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2005,2(2):87~92.
[101]韩祥兰,吴慧中,陈圣磊,万建明.武器装备论证综合集成研讨厅系统[J].南京理工大学学报,2005,29(4):446~450.
[102]孙柏林.美军作战实验情况综述[C].香山科学会议第262次学术研讨会,2005年9月:41~66.
[103]熊新平.“千年挑战2002”启示[J].现代防御技术,2002,30(5):22-24.
[104] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Vision 2010,5123 Joint Staff,Pentagon, Washington,D.C.,1996.
[105] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Vision 2020,,5123 Joint Staff,Pentagon, Washington,D.C.,1999.
[106] US Department of Defense. The Defense Acquisition System. DoD Directive5000.2,2003May.
[107] US Department of Defense. The Defense Acquisition System. DoD Directive5000.2,2003May.
[108] Farkas K. & Thurston, P. Evolutionary Acquisition Strategies and SpiralDevelopment Processes: Developing Affordable, Sustainable Capability to theWarfighters[J].ProgramManager,2003,Jul/Aug,p.11.
[109] US Department of the Air Force. EvolutionaryAcquisition for C2 Systems[R].AirForceInstruction,2000, 63-123.
[110] Wade Henning. Spiral Development in Action: A Case Study of SpiralDevelopment in the Global Hawk Unmaned Aerial Vehicle[D]. US: NavalPostgraduateSchool,December2005.
[111]军事科学院世界军事研究部.俄联邦军事基本情况[M],北京:军事科学出版社,2004年版:198-209.
[112] Richard Darilek, Bruce Pirnie, Steve Drezner, Leland Joe. Issues and Insights fromtheArmyTechnologySeminarGame[R].SantaMonica:Rand,MR-1299-A,1997.
[113] Matsumura etc. Analytic Support to the Defense Science Board: Tactics andTechnology for the 21st Century Military Superiority. Documented Briefing. TheRANDCoporation,(DB-198-A).
[114] PLT/CO/TM Branch of DTDD. Exploiting Precision Maneuver: A Experiment toEvaluateM1A2Tactics,TechiquesandProcedures[R].September-October1998.
[115] Lartigue Louise. Extending the Evaluation of Tactical Reconnaissance inSimulation Through the Demonstration of intent[D]. University of Central Florida,1998.
[116] Wilburn c. Evaluation of Land Reconnaissance Tactical Behaviors Early in thesystemes Development of A New Weapon System Using ConstructiveSimulation[D].UniversityofCentralFlorida,1999.
[117] Andrew P. Frits; Weston, N.; Pouchet C.; Kusmik, A. Examination of a TorpedoPerformance Space and its Relation to the System Design Space[CA] The 9thMulti-Disciplinary Analysis and OptimizationSymposium[C], AIAA, Atlanta.September4-6,2002,AIAA-2002-5634.
[118]孙家胜.创造发明技法[M].天津:天津人民出版社,1998:106-115.
[119]经理人培训项目组.人力资源工具箱[M].中国人民大学出版社,2006.3.
[120]甘华鸣等著.创新的策略:通用方法指南[M].北京:红旗出版社,2002:1,380-408.
[121]钱平吉.创新一点通——造性思维及发明法杂议[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社,1999:82-86.
[122]徐国祥.统计预测和决策(第二版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[123]李耀东.综合集成研讨厅设计与实现中的若干问题研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2003:82~86.
[124] Senge Peter M.The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The LearningOrganization[M].NewYork:CurrencyDoubledayPublishingGroup,1990.
[125]刘畅.《色戒》:故事与呈现[J].书屋,2008年第2期:33-35.
[126] Joseph Lampel, Jamal Shamsie, Theresa K Lant. The Business Of Culture:Strategic Perspectives On Entertainment and Media[M]. Lawrence ErlbaumAssociates, London,2006.
[127]丁志华.以网络智暴法为核心的群体创新理论及其关键技术研究.重庆:重庆大学硕士学位论文,2003:7-9.
[128] Chuah J, Zhang J, Johnson T R. Distributed cognition of a navigational instrumentdisplaytask. In: Hahn M, Stoness S C. ed. Proceedings of the TwentyFirst AnnualConference of the Cognitive Science Society. Mahweh, New Jersey:Lawrence-Erlbaumm,1999.789.
[129] Cole M, Engestrom Y. A cultural-historical approach to distributed cognition. In:Salomon G. ed. Distributed cognitions: psychological and educationalconsiderations.USA:CambridgeUniversityPress,1993.
[130] Editor’s instruction. In: Salomon G. ed. Distributed cognitions: psychological andeducationalconsiderations.USA:CambridgeUniversityPress,1993.
[131]克劳塞维茨,军事科学院译.战争论[M].北京:解放军出版社,1964年:50-51.
[132]赫拉克利特著,罗宾森英译,楚荷中译.赫拉克利特著作残篇[M].广西师范大学出版社,2007.
[133] P. Cilliers. Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems[M].NewYork:Routledge,1998.9.
[134]卡尔·波普尔著,周昌忠,蒋弋为译.猜想与反驳[M].上海:上海译文出版社,2005.
[135]舒炜光,邱仁宗.当代西方科学哲学述评(第二版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007.
[136]邢润川,李侠.后现代主义消解科学主义的策略[A].见:郭贵春,潘屹东.科学大战与后现代主义.科学出版社,2006.
[137]埃德加·莫兰著,陈一壮译.复杂思想:自觉的科学.北京:北京大学出版社,2001.
[138]李少军.建设性后现代主义与复杂性探索[A].见:北京大学现代科学与哲学研究中心编著.复杂性新探.北京:人民出版社,2007:532-542.
[139]帕斯卡尔著,何兆武译.思想录[M].北京:商务印书馆,1985年:1-8,27-36.
[140]王飞跃.平行系统方法与复杂系统的管理和控制[J].控制与决策,2004,19(3):485-489.
[141]王寅.认知语言学与两代认知科学[J].外语学刊,2002年第1期:9-14.
[142]罗姆·哈瑞著,潘屹东译.认知科学哲学导论[M].上海科技教育出版社,2006.
[143] Callan,R.ArtificialIntelligence[M].PalgraveMacmillan,2003.
[144] Searle J.R. Is the Brains Mind a Computer Program? [J]. Scientific American,January,1990:20-25.
[145]朱志方.认知科学对现代哲学的挑战[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版),2002年第1期.
[146]熊十力.新唯识论[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006.
[147] http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/cognitive-science.
[148]周昊天,傅小兰.认知科学——新千年的前沿领域[J].心理科学进展2005,13(4):388-397.
[149]卢明森何名申.创新思维学引论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[150]戴汝为.钱学森论大成智慧工程[J].中国工程科学,2001,3(12):14-20.
[151]戴汝为.大成智慧工程[J].冶金自动化,2000年第1期:1-6.
[152]约翰.阿奎拉,戴维.伦菲尔德等著,宋正华等译,决战信息时代,长春:吉林人民出版社,2001.
[153] RobertO.Keohane,JosephS.Nye,PowerandInterdependenceintheinformationAge,ForeignAffairs,1998(September/October)
[154]迈克尔.奥汉隆,王振西主译,高科技与新军事革命,北京:新华出版社,2001.
[155]尹承魁等著,迎接新军事革命的挑战,北京:国防大学出版社,1998.
[156] Levchuk Y.N, Levchuk G.M, K.R. Pattipati. A Systematic Approach to OptimizeOrganizations Operating in Uncertain Environments: Design Methodology andApplications. Proceedings of the 7-th International Command & Control Research&TechnologySymposium,2002,QuébecCity,QC,Canada,Sept,2002.
[157] Levchuk, G.M., Y. N. Levchuk, Jie Luo, K.R. Pattipati, and D.L. Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part I: Mission Planning”, in IEEETransactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 32, No. 3, May 2002, pp.346-359.
[158] Levchuk, G.M., Y. N. Levchuk, Jie Luo, K.R. Pattipati, and D.L. Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part II: Organizational Structure”, in IEEETransactionsonSMC,Vol.32,No.3,May2002,pp.360-375.
[159] Levchuk,G.M.,Y.N.Levchuk,C.Meirina,andK.R.Pattipati,andD.L.Kleinman,“Normative Design of Organizations - Part III: Modeling Congruent, RobustOrganizations”,submittedtoIEEESMC,2003.
[160]汉语大辞典编辑委员会.汉语大辞典(第五分册)[M].上海:汉语大辞典出版社,1990.
[161]姜椿芳,梅益.中国大百科全书(军事Ⅱ卷)[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2004年.
[162] Cochrane Charles B. Introduction to Defense Acquisition Management (SixthEdition)[M].DAU,Nov2003.
[163]铝建伟,陈霖,郭庆华.武器装备研制的风险分析与风险管理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:11,167-187.
[164]总装备部电子信息基础部.现代武器装备概论[M].北京:原子能出版社,2003:64.
[165]沙基昌.数理战术学[M].北京:科学出版社,2004年6月.
[166]余春.战争形态与武器特征[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2005年9月.
[167]迈克尔?奥汉隆著,王振西译.高科技与新军事革命[M].北京:新华出版社,2004:26-28.
[168]陈勇,姚有志.面向信息化战争的军事理论创新[M].北京:解放军出版社,2004:5-33.
[169]王保存.世界新军事变革新论[M].北京:解放军事出版社,2005:1-4.
[170]林建超,吉文明.世界新军事变革概论[M].北京:解放军事出版社,2005:47-51.
[171]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯军事文集(第1卷)[M].北京:战术出版社,1981:16-17.
[172] LCDR R. Bronson Armstrong. Proposed Communications ArchitectureRecommendationstoEnableJointVision2020[A].IEEEAerospaceConference[C],2003,vol.3:1187-1193.
[173]李学丽,解保军.马克思主义哲学新编[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2004年:163-165.
[174]张洪钺,王青编著.最优控制理论与应用[M].高等教育出版社,2006.
[175] Wack, P. Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead[J]. Harvard Business Review,September-October,1985(5):72-89.
[176] Robbins, Gordon C. Scenario Planning [J], Public Management (US), March 95Vol.77Issue3,4-5.
[177] Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M]. Chichester:Wiley,1996.
[178] Christopher Zegras, Joseph Sussman, Christopher Conklin. Scenario Planning forStrategic Regional Transportation Planning [J]. ASCE Journal of Urban PlanningandDevelopment,March2004,pp.2-13.
[179] MichelGodet.CreatingFutures[M].London:Economica,2001:269.
[180]徐钰华.基于情景规划的项目不确定性管理研究[D].南京:东南大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[181]阚毓伟.情景规划理论与应用研究[D].上海:上海大学硕士学位论文,2001.
[182] O'Brien,FA.Scenarioplanning-lessonsforpracticefromteachingandlearning[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,FEB2004,152(3):709-722.
[183] Bent, RW; Van Hentenryck, P. Scenario-based planning for partially dynamicvehicle routing with stochastic customers[J]. Operations Research, NOV-DEC2004,52(6):977-987.
[184] Shiftan, Y; Kaplan, S; Hakkert, S. Scenario building as a tool for planning asustainable transportation system[J]. Transportation Research Part D -TransportandEnvironment,SEP20038,(5):323-342.
[185] Beraldi, P; Ghiani, G; Guerriero, E; Grieco, A. Scenario-based planning forlot-sizing and scheduling with uncertain processing times[J]. International JournalofProductionEconomics,2006MAY,101(1):140-149.
[186]王华亭,冯俊文,张松叶.基于情景规划的东营港区发展战略思考[J].经济研究参考,2006年82期.
[187] Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M]. Chichester:Wiley,1996.
[188] Wachs M. ForecastingVersus Envisioning: A New Window on the Future. JournaloftheAmecicanPlanningAssociation,200167(4):367-372.
[189] Wilkinson,L.HowToBuildScenarios.Wired(Scenarios:l.0l SpecialEdition),September,1995:74—81.
[190] Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an UncertainWorld[M].NewYork:CurrencyDoubleday.1996.
[191]任义广.信息质量对反舰导弹作战效果影响的分析方法研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2007年12月.
[192]吴永波.基于本体的任务空间概念建模研究[D].长沙:国防科技大学研究生院博士学位论文,2005年12月.
[193]吴永波,沙基昌,谭东风.基于本体的两阶段任务空间概念模型开发方法[J].国防科技大学学报,2005,27(6):120-125.
[194]黄俊领,谭东风,张向波.军事仿真概念模型开发研究[J].计算机仿真,2005,22(2):15-18.
[195]汪文元,沙基昌,谭东风.基于概念模型工程的工作流建模研究[J].计算机仿真,2006,28(1):139-142.
[196] Defense Modeling and Simulation Office. CMMS Representations[EB/OL].http://www.dmso.mil.
[197] Defense Modeling and Simulation Office.“Conceptual models of the MissionSpace(CMMS)TechnicalFramework”[EB/OL].http://www.dmso.mil.
[198] Lee W. Lacy, Wayne Randolph , Bruce Harris.“Developing a ConsensusPerspectiveonConceptual ModelsforSimulationSystems”.Proceedingsofthethe2001SpringSimulationInteroperabilityWorkshop[R],2001.
[199] Harvard Business School. SWOT Analysis I: Looking Outside for Threats andOpportunities[M]HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,Jun2005.
[200] Harvard Business School. SWOT Analysis II: Looking Inside for Strengths andWeaknesses[M]HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,Jun2005.
[201] Martin Helande. A Guide to the Ergonomics of Manufacturing[M]. London: Talor&Francis,1995.
[202]孙林岩.人因工程[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2004.
[203]胡晓峰,司光亚,吴琳,张过春.战争模拟引论[M].北京:国防大学出版社,2004.
[204]康凤举,杨惠珍,高立娥.现代仿真技术与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[205]迈克?波特著,陈小悦译.竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社.1997,2-32
[206]王田苗,胡耀光编著.基于信息价值链的企业流传再造与信息集成[M],清华大学出版社,2002.20-30
[207]赵耀文.核心能力评价的价值工程方法研究[J].价值工程,2006,5.54-56
[208]李康昱.试论价值工程在企业核心能力识别中的应用[J].价值工程,2005,1.54-57
[209]庄建芳.价值链会计研究综述[J].财会月刊,2005,11.54-56
[210]赵民杰,金萍,任晓娜.客户关系管理的价值链模型研究[J],现代管理科学,2005,2.29-31.
[211]李群明.供应链的建模与管理研究[D].中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所. 2001.20-30
[212]黄小原,李宝家.供应链集成化动态模型与控制[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(4).254-260.
[213]陈志祥,马士华,陈荣秋等.供应链管理与基于活动的成本控制策略[J].工业工程与管理,1999,(5):32-36.
[214] Simon Croom. Supply Chain Management: an analytical frame-work for criticalliterature review[J]. European J.of Purchasing & Supply Management,2000(6):67-83.
[215]蓝伯雄,郑小娜,徐心.电子商务时代的供应链管理[J].中国管理科学,2000,8(3):1-7.
[216]陈国权.供应链管理[J].中国软科学,1999:101-104.
[217]董安邦,廖志英.供应链管理的研究综述[J].工业工程,2002,5(5):16-20.
[218]徐学文,王寿云.现代作战模拟[M].北京:科学出版社,2001年:164-180.
[219] T. N. Dupuy. Understanding War: History and Theory of Combat[M].Trans-AtlanticPublications,1992.
[220]梁振兴.发展综合电子信息系统迎接信息化战争的挑战[J].电讯技术,第39卷第1期.
[221] EdmardWaltz著,吴汉平,等译.信息战原理与实践[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004(1).
[222] ChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff.《JointDoctrineforInformationOperation》[R].JointPub3-13,9October1998
[223]钟义信.信息科学原理.北京邮电大学出版社,北京,1996.
[224]沙基昌,陈超,毛赤龙等.信息化战争高级形态与高级信息武器装备的概念研究[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2004年18(4):3-6.
[225] Paul M. Parashak III. The Effects Of Quality And Timeliness Of TargetingInformation On Submarine Employment Of Long Range Anti-Ship CruiseMissiles[D].NavalPostgraduateSchool:Master’sThesis,2005
[226] David S. Alberts, John J. Garstka, Richard E. Hayes, et al. UnderstandingInformationAgeWarfare[EB/OL].http://www.dodccrp.org,2001.
[227] Walter Perry, David Signori, John Boon. Exploring Information Superiority: AMethodology for Measuring the Quality of Information and Its Impact on SharedAwareness[EB/OL],SantaMonica,CA:RAND,2003.
[228]刘千里,朱建冲.反舰导弹超视距攻击作战的计算机仿真研究[J].海军工程大学学报,2004,16(1):108-110.
[229]赵正业.潜艇火控原理[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003,321-328.
[230]何文涛,王基组,张永刚.超视距反舰导弹捕捉能力[J].火力与指挥控制,2005,30(4):18-19.
[231] Hammer M. Reengineering work: Don't automate, obliterate. Harvard BusinessReview.1990:104-112.
[232] Hammer M., ChampyJ.. Reengineering the Corporation: A Minifesto for BusinessRevolution.HarperBusiness,1993.
[233] Hammer M. Beyong Reengineering: How the process s-centered Organization isChangingOurWorkandOurlives.HarperBusiness,1996.
[234]丙明杰.再造流程.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1997.
[235]涂智寿.实现供应链信息化的重要因素——BPR[J].商业研究,2003年18期:97-99.
[236]孔学峰.企业信息化过程中的“信息悖论”[J].企业活力,2004年第1期:50-51.
[237]周桂梅.对企业信息化中“黑洞”成因的分析及应对策略[J].2004年第4期:85-87.
[238]姚建荣.再论“IT黑洞”[J].中国管理信息化,2005年第12期:9-10.
[239]熊水华.BPR流程选择与再设计方法研究.广州:华南理工大学大学硕士学位论文,2004年2月:1-2.
[240]联想集团有限公司.联想ERP成功后的回忆[J].企业管理,2002年11月:83-85.
[241] Cho, C; Cho, NW. Design of a BPR-based information strategy planning (ISP)framework[C]. Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2005, PT3,3482:1297-1305.
[242] Wang CT; Wang, JY; Chu, TH; Chao, CC. A BPR support forComputer-Integrated Manufacturing management[J]. International Journal ofIndustrial Engineering Theory Applications and Practice, 2001 DEC, 8(4):319-328.
[243] Ng, J.K.C.; Ip, W.H.; Lee, T.C. Paradigm for ERP and BPR integration[J].InternationalJournalofProductionResearch,1999Jun.,37(9):2093-2108.
[244] Komiya, Fumio; Mitsukuni, Koshichiro; Komoda, Norihisa. Efficient method ofsetting BPR themes suitable for ERP package selection[C]. Proc IEEE Int ConfSystManCybern[A],3:2104-2109.
[245]桂良军,薛恒新,黄作明.BPR、ERP、SCM、CRM的集成研究[J].统计与决策,2004年11期:132-133.
[246]梅绍祖,冯建中BPR与信息技术系统工程理论与实践2003年第2期:45-50.
[247]陈京民,徐航.基于BPR的信息系统开发方法研究[J].中国管理信息化,2006,9(7):18-20.
[248]宋伟,王玉恒.关注流程:BPR、BPM与ERP管理思想的比较[J].商场现代化2006年7月(下旬刊):42.
[249] Davenport H T, Short J. The New Industrial Engineering: Information TechnologyandBusinessProcessRedesign[J].SloanManag.Rev.1990,Summer:7-13.
[250]步磊,王云峰,熊立华.企业价值·价值链·业务流程[J].价值工程,2002,5:14-16.
[251]李源,樊治平,李为.企业过程再造的价值工程方法[J].工业工程与管理.1999,2:39-42.
[252]何苏华.企业过程再造与价值工程的集成[J].工业工程与管理,2000,6:34-36.
[253]张向宏,王明明,李颖新.价值工程方法在业务流程重组实施中的运用[J].科学学研究,2002,20(4):420-422.
[254]武春友,戴大双.价值工程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1992.
[255]高鹏峰.电信运营企业BPR中的业绩评价研究[D]北京邮电大学硕士学位论文,2003,6:3-4.
[256]施纳斯著,陈工译.管理未来:动态财务管理[M].电子工业出版社,2004.
[257]特纳著,何烺译.管理者的管理工具(第二版)[M].企业管理出版社,2006.
[258]叶俊,赵衡秀.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005,92-96.
[259]徐建志,刘鼎臣.水面舰艇规避来袭导弹效果的建模计算与分析[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2003第4期:26-29.