中国锌循环及其折旧再生指数研究
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摘要
物质流分析是在一个国家或地区范围内,对特定的某种物质或者物质组合进行工业代谢研究的有效手段。物质流分析的目的是找到节省天然资源、改善环境的途径,以推动工业系统向可持续发展方向转化。物质流分析是制定物质工业政策的重要依据。
物质流分析方法有多种,本文选择了陆钟武院士提出的基于产品生命周期物流图的跟踪观察法研究中国金属锌的循环状况。其方法的突出特点是,物流跟踪过程从产品生命周期的起点——天然资源开始,跟踪到产品生命周期的终点——报废的产品,最后跟踪到第二个生命周期的起点——回收使用的报废产品资源。
金属锌是国民经济重要的物质基础。由于经济的快速发展,国内外已经出现了锌的资源危机。为分析清楚锌流情况,本文分析了中国锌制品的主要消费构成,计算了每类锌制品的平均使用寿命,即镀锌制品、黄铜制品、锌氧化物制品、锌电池、锌合金压铸件、锌材制品的平均使用寿命分别为21.2年、30年、5.3年、0.17年、11.1年、12年。从而计算出锌制品的加权平均使用寿命为16-18年,由于实际情况是仅有黄铜、锌材和压铸合金的报废制品得到回收利用,因此其折旧再生回收年限为20年。
为计算中国再生锌的有关数据,提出了折旧再生锌、加工再生锌资源量和产量的计算方法,特别提出了更精确计算金属折旧再生资源的正态分布概率法。考察每类金属制品报废概率分布是十分复杂的。分析发现,如果金属各类制品消费结构相对稳定,且金属消费量为线性变动时,采用平均使用寿命法计算金属制品的折旧再生资源量可以得到精确值；否则,可采用平均使用寿命法分别计算金属的各类制品的折旧再生资源量,然后求和计算,这样更接近精确值。
通过大量的调研,明确地描述了锌的生产、加工制造、使用及回收阶段的再生锌生成及回收途径。计算出2000-2004年中国再生锌资源量约为由122.1万t递增到170.03万t,再生锌产量约由21.26万t递增到35.6万t,综合再生利用率由17.4%递增到20.9%,并分析了中国金属锌综合再生利用率较低的主要原因是采选环节的散矿石、尾矿、镀锌制品、锌电池等折旧再生锌资源,以及锌氧化物制品产生的再生锌资源没有得到回收。
本文绘制了2004年的中国锌流图,并分析了2000-2004年中国锌循环主要指标,生产阶段的原料自给率由101.1%降低到88.6%,加工制造阶段的原料自给率由140.4%下降到93.6%,矿石指数由1.333t/t下降到1.275t/t,再生锌指数由0.118t/t上升到0.126t/t。
再生金属指数是描述金属工业中金属再生资源充足程度的指标,其中金属折旧再生指数是构成再生金属指数大小和变动的主要的指标。本文分析了影响金属折旧再生指数的重要影响因素——金属消费函数的四类基本特征和四种组合特征,并分析了各类金属消费函数与其折旧再生指数的变化关系。中国锌的折旧再生指数理论值和实际值都在1990年以前逐渐增加,之后逐渐降低,其理论值和实际值在1990年分别为0.566和0.054,到2003年分别降低到0.235和0.029。得出了中国国内再生锌资源必然不足的结论。如果中国锌工业按照目前消费趋势发展下去,预计折旧再生锌指数理论值在2010年左右降到最低0.233,然后开始缓慢升高,实际值则在2002左右年将达最低点,即中国再生锌资源将一直是缺乏的。
通过对比中国与发达国家推进锌循环的在经济、产业政策、管理等方面的差距,采用宏观经济学等方法,找出推进中国锌循环的政策缺陷,并提出政策建议,主要包括：建立完整的推进锌循环的政策体系,实施锌工业原料结构的战略调整,制定科学合理的经济政策,严格执行法律规章,促进产业重组,建立产业许可准入制度和统一有效的回收体系。
Material flow analysis was the effective method to make research about industrial metabolization of a specific material or combined material in a national or regional range.The purpose of material flow analysis was to find the way of saving natural resources, improving environment, in order to promote the transform of industrial system toward sustainable development. Material flow analysis was an important basis of making industrial policy of material.
There were many kinds of material flow analysis methods. Following-observing method which was put forward by academician Mr.Wu, on the basis of life cycle chart of material, was selected to study circulation state of zinc in China. The outstanding characteristic of the method was that the course of following material began from natural resources, the starting point of life cycle of material products, to scrapped products, the terminal point of life cycle of material products, finally to regenerated scrap products resources, the another starting point of second life cycle of material products.
Metal zinc was important material base of national economy. Because of the fast development of economy, zinc resource crisis had already presented at home and abroad. In order to analyse the situation of zinc flow clearly, main consumption structure of zinc products in China had analysed, average life span of each kind of zinc products had calculated, namely zinc-plated products,21.2 years, brass products,30 years, zinc oxide products,5.3 years, the zinc battery,0.17 years, zinc alloy die casting,11.1 years, zinc material products, respectively. Thus the weighting average life span of zinc products was calculated out as 16-18years. Regeneration depreciation life span of zinc products is 20 years, because only brass scrapped products, zinc alloy die casting scrapped products, zinc material scrapped products were relcaimed and regenerated actually.
In order to calculate the relevant data of regenerated zinc in China, calculating methods of resource amount and output of depreciated regenerated zinc and processed regenerated zinc, especially normal distribution probability method, by which resource amount of depreciated regenerated zinc can be calculated more accurately, had proposed. It was very complicated to investigate scraped probability distribution of each kind of metal products. It was found that, if consumption structures of each kind of metal products were relatively stable, and volume of metal consumption was linear change with time, exact value can be got by adopting average life span method to calculate resources amount of depreciated regenerated metal. Otherwise Much more approximate exact value can be got by, firstly adopting average life span method to calculate resources amount of depreciated regenerated metal of each product respectively, then summing up those resources amount.
Forming and retrieving approaches of regenerated zinc during the stages of production, processing and manufacturing, using and retrieving were comparatively described, through a large amount of investigation and research. Resource amount of regenerated zinc were calculated out, increasing progressively from 1,221,000t to 1,700,300t, output of regenerated zinc, increasing progressively from 212,600t to 356,000t, comprehensive regenerated rate, increasing progressively from 17.4% to 20.9%, in China from 2000 to 2004. The main reason that the regenerated rate of zinc in China was low was that the usable depreciated regenerated zinc resource, such as scattered ore, tailing, zinc-plated products, etc, and the regenerated zinc resource of the zinc oxide products were not retrieved, was also analyzed.
Zinc flow chart of China in 2004 had been drawn. Major indicators of zinc cycle of China from 2000 to 2004 had been analyzed. Rate of self-sufficiency of raw materials of zinc produce stage reduced from 101.1% to 88.6%. Rate of self-sufficiency of raw materials of processing and fabrication stage dropped from 140.4% to 93.6%. The ore index dropped from 1.333t/t to 1.275t/t. Regeneration index of zinc rose from 0.118t/t to 0.126t/t.
Regenerattion index of metal was the index to describe sufficient degree of metal regenerated resources in metal industry, and regeneration index of depreciated metal was main index to induce the change and the magnitude of regenerated metal index. Important influence factor on regeneration index of depreciated metal, that is, four kinds of essential features of metal consumption function and four kinds of association of essential features, had, been analyzed. Relation between all kinds of metal consumption function and regeneration index of depreciated metal its recycled index of depreciation had been analyzed also. Both theory value and actual value of regeneration index of depreciated zinc of China increased gradually before 1990, then, reduced gradually. Theory value and actual value were 0.566 and 0.054 respectively in 1990, reduced to 0.235 and 0.029 respectively by 2003. Conclusion can be got that resources of regenerated zinc in China must be insufficient. If zinc industry developed according to the consumption trend at present in China, it was estimated that theory value of regeneration index of depreciated zinc would be the lowest, as 0.233 about in 2010, then would rise slowly, and actual value reached the minimum in 2002, namely resources of regenerated zinc in China would be scarce all the time.
Through comparing with the disparity in such aspects as economy, industrial policy, management to promote zinc cycle between China and developed countries, defects in the policies of promoting zinc cycle in China were found out, by macroeconomics method, etc. Policy recommendations were proposed, including mainly:setting up the intact policy system of promoting zinc circulation, implementing the strategical reajustment of raw materials structure of zinc industry, accelerating the research, development and popularization of key technology, making the scientific rational economic policy, carrying out the legal and rule strictly, promoting industrial combination, were put forward,setting up licence system of industry entering and effective and uniform recovery system.
物质流分析方法有多种,本文选择了陆钟武院士提出的基于产品生命周期物流图的跟踪观察法研究中国金属锌的循环状况。其方法的突出特点是,物流跟踪过程从产品生命周期的起点——天然资源开始,跟踪到产品生命周期的终点——报废的产品,最后跟踪到第二个生命周期的起点——回收使用的报废产品资源。
金属锌是国民经济重要的物质基础。由于经济的快速发展,国内外已经出现了锌的资源危机。为分析清楚锌流情况,本文分析了中国锌制品的主要消费构成,计算了每类锌制品的平均使用寿命,即镀锌制品、黄铜制品、锌氧化物制品、锌电池、锌合金压铸件、锌材制品的平均使用寿命分别为21.2年、30年、5.3年、0.17年、11.1年、12年。从而计算出锌制品的加权平均使用寿命为16-18年,由于实际情况是仅有黄铜、锌材和压铸合金的报废制品得到回收利用,因此其折旧再生回收年限为20年。
为计算中国再生锌的有关数据,提出了折旧再生锌、加工再生锌资源量和产量的计算方法,特别提出了更精确计算金属折旧再生资源的正态分布概率法。考察每类金属制品报废概率分布是十分复杂的。分析发现,如果金属各类制品消费结构相对稳定,且金属消费量为线性变动时,采用平均使用寿命法计算金属制品的折旧再生资源量可以得到精确值；否则,可采用平均使用寿命法分别计算金属的各类制品的折旧再生资源量,然后求和计算,这样更接近精确值。
通过大量的调研,明确地描述了锌的生产、加工制造、使用及回收阶段的再生锌生成及回收途径。计算出2000-2004年中国再生锌资源量约为由122.1万t递增到170.03万t,再生锌产量约由21.26万t递增到35.6万t,综合再生利用率由17.4%递增到20.9%,并分析了中国金属锌综合再生利用率较低的主要原因是采选环节的散矿石、尾矿、镀锌制品、锌电池等折旧再生锌资源,以及锌氧化物制品产生的再生锌资源没有得到回收。
本文绘制了2004年的中国锌流图,并分析了2000-2004年中国锌循环主要指标,生产阶段的原料自给率由101.1%降低到88.6%,加工制造阶段的原料自给率由140.4%下降到93.6%,矿石指数由1.333t/t下降到1.275t/t,再生锌指数由0.118t/t上升到0.126t/t。
再生金属指数是描述金属工业中金属再生资源充足程度的指标,其中金属折旧再生指数是构成再生金属指数大小和变动的主要的指标。本文分析了影响金属折旧再生指数的重要影响因素——金属消费函数的四类基本特征和四种组合特征,并分析了各类金属消费函数与其折旧再生指数的变化关系。中国锌的折旧再生指数理论值和实际值都在1990年以前逐渐增加,之后逐渐降低,其理论值和实际值在1990年分别为0.566和0.054,到2003年分别降低到0.235和0.029。得出了中国国内再生锌资源必然不足的结论。如果中国锌工业按照目前消费趋势发展下去,预计折旧再生锌指数理论值在2010年左右降到最低0.233,然后开始缓慢升高,实际值则在2002左右年将达最低点,即中国再生锌资源将一直是缺乏的。
通过对比中国与发达国家推进锌循环的在经济、产业政策、管理等方面的差距,采用宏观经济学等方法,找出推进中国锌循环的政策缺陷,并提出政策建议,主要包括：建立完整的推进锌循环的政策体系,实施锌工业原料结构的战略调整,制定科学合理的经济政策,严格执行法律规章,促进产业重组,建立产业许可准入制度和统一有效的回收体系。
Material flow analysis was the effective method to make research about industrial metabolization of a specific material or combined material in a national or regional range.The purpose of material flow analysis was to find the way of saving natural resources, improving environment, in order to promote the transform of industrial system toward sustainable development. Material flow analysis was an important basis of making industrial policy of material.
There were many kinds of material flow analysis methods. Following-observing method which was put forward by academician Mr.Wu, on the basis of life cycle chart of material, was selected to study circulation state of zinc in China. The outstanding characteristic of the method was that the course of following material began from natural resources, the starting point of life cycle of material products, to scrapped products, the terminal point of life cycle of material products, finally to regenerated scrap products resources, the another starting point of second life cycle of material products.
Metal zinc was important material base of national economy. Because of the fast development of economy, zinc resource crisis had already presented at home and abroad. In order to analyse the situation of zinc flow clearly, main consumption structure of zinc products in China had analysed, average life span of each kind of zinc products had calculated, namely zinc-plated products,21.2 years, brass products,30 years, zinc oxide products,5.3 years, the zinc battery,0.17 years, zinc alloy die casting,11.1 years, zinc material products, respectively. Thus the weighting average life span of zinc products was calculated out as 16-18years. Regeneration depreciation life span of zinc products is 20 years, because only brass scrapped products, zinc alloy die casting scrapped products, zinc material scrapped products were relcaimed and regenerated actually.
In order to calculate the relevant data of regenerated zinc in China, calculating methods of resource amount and output of depreciated regenerated zinc and processed regenerated zinc, especially normal distribution probability method, by which resource amount of depreciated regenerated zinc can be calculated more accurately, had proposed. It was very complicated to investigate scraped probability distribution of each kind of metal products. It was found that, if consumption structures of each kind of metal products were relatively stable, and volume of metal consumption was linear change with time, exact value can be got by adopting average life span method to calculate resources amount of depreciated regenerated metal. Otherwise Much more approximate exact value can be got by, firstly adopting average life span method to calculate resources amount of depreciated regenerated metal of each product respectively, then summing up those resources amount.
Forming and retrieving approaches of regenerated zinc during the stages of production, processing and manufacturing, using and retrieving were comparatively described, through a large amount of investigation and research. Resource amount of regenerated zinc were calculated out, increasing progressively from 1,221,000t to 1,700,300t, output of regenerated zinc, increasing progressively from 212,600t to 356,000t, comprehensive regenerated rate, increasing progressively from 17.4% to 20.9%, in China from 2000 to 2004. The main reason that the regenerated rate of zinc in China was low was that the usable depreciated regenerated zinc resource, such as scattered ore, tailing, zinc-plated products, etc, and the regenerated zinc resource of the zinc oxide products were not retrieved, was also analyzed.
Zinc flow chart of China in 2004 had been drawn. Major indicators of zinc cycle of China from 2000 to 2004 had been analyzed. Rate of self-sufficiency of raw materials of zinc produce stage reduced from 101.1% to 88.6%. Rate of self-sufficiency of raw materials of processing and fabrication stage dropped from 140.4% to 93.6%. The ore index dropped from 1.333t/t to 1.275t/t. Regeneration index of zinc rose from 0.118t/t to 0.126t/t.
Regenerattion index of metal was the index to describe sufficient degree of metal regenerated resources in metal industry, and regeneration index of depreciated metal was main index to induce the change and the magnitude of regenerated metal index. Important influence factor on regeneration index of depreciated metal, that is, four kinds of essential features of metal consumption function and four kinds of association of essential features, had, been analyzed. Relation between all kinds of metal consumption function and regeneration index of depreciated metal its recycled index of depreciation had been analyzed also. Both theory value and actual value of regeneration index of depreciated zinc of China increased gradually before 1990, then, reduced gradually. Theory value and actual value were 0.566 and 0.054 respectively in 1990, reduced to 0.235 and 0.029 respectively by 2003. Conclusion can be got that resources of regenerated zinc in China must be insufficient. If zinc industry developed according to the consumption trend at present in China, it was estimated that theory value of regeneration index of depreciated zinc would be the lowest, as 0.233 about in 2010, then would rise slowly, and actual value reached the minimum in 2002, namely resources of regenerated zinc in China would be scarce all the time.
Through comparing with the disparity in such aspects as economy, industrial policy, management to promote zinc cycle between China and developed countries, defects in the policies of promoting zinc cycle in China were found out, by macroeconomics method, etc. Policy recommendations were proposed, including mainly:setting up the intact policy system of promoting zinc circulation, implementing the strategical reajustment of raw materials structure of zinc industry, accelerating the research, development and popularization of key technology, making the scientific rational economic policy, carrying out the legal and rule strictly, promoting industrial combination, were put forward,setting up licence system of industry entering and effective and uniform recovery system.
引文
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