有序用电指标体系及其评价方法的研究
|
摘要
目前,中国电力市场处于改革的过程中,条件的欠缺使需求侧管理不能充分发挥其功效,不能有效的解决电力供需平衡问题。面对结构性、时段性的缺电,只有开展有序用电工作。本文在充分调研洛阳市用电市场的基础上,研究了有序用电编制工作中的影响因素,提出了有序用电综合评价的指标体系,运用改进的模糊层次分析法计算了指标体系的各部分权重及整体权重,以减少专家评分的不确定性;最终建立了有序用电的综合评价模型。选用了聚类技术中的K-均值法对影响有序用电的直接价值和间接价值两个维度进行聚类。建立了检验模型,从成本效益角度证明了指标的合理性和科学性。选取洛阳供电公司10家工业用户进行实证分析,验证了该指标体系,可以作为电力公司筛选客户压限负荷的依据。
Presently, the electricity market in the progress of reform, Demand-Side-Management can not play an important role and can not effectively resolve the problem of electricity supply-demand balance. In order to solve the problem of regional and phsic Power shortage, we need to carry out orderly power.Based on complete investigation in Luoyang, the Factors Influencing orderly power are researched, and an index system for evaluating the orderly power is established in this thesis. The part weight and the whole weight of the index system are calculated by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), in order to reduce the uncertainty of experts scoring. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation model is set up. K-means method in the clustering technology is employed in electricity customers clustering from two dimensions of current value and potential value. Empirical analysis is carried out to 10 industrial users in Luoyang, and the index system is verified. On the basis of the index system and the model, Power company can be better to choose users to limit the load.
Presently, the electricity market in the progress of reform, Demand-Side-Management can not play an important role and can not effectively resolve the problem of electricity supply-demand balance. In order to solve the problem of regional and phsic Power shortage, we need to carry out orderly power.Based on complete investigation in Luoyang, the Factors Influencing orderly power are researched, and an index system for evaluating the orderly power is established in this thesis. The part weight and the whole weight of the index system are calculated by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), in order to reduce the uncertainty of experts scoring. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation model is set up. K-means method in the clustering technology is employed in electricity customers clustering from two dimensions of current value and potential value. Empirical analysis is carried out to 10 industrial users in Luoyang, and the index system is verified. On the basis of the index system and the model, Power company can be better to choose users to limit the load.
引文
[1]国家电力公司电力需求侧管理指导中心.APEC地区电力需求侧管理手册.2005
[2]国家电力公司电力需求侧管理指导中心.美国节能服务行业回顾.2005
[3]Strbae,Kirsehen.Assessing the Competitiveness of demand side bidding.PowerSystems,IEEE Transaetionson,1999,14(1):32-35
[4]Berger P.D.,Nasr N.I.Customer lifetime value:Marketing models and applications.Journal of Interactive marketing,1998,12(1):17-30
[5]Sharma,D.Parameswara etc.Analytical search of problems and prospects of power sector through Delphi study:case study of Kerala State,India.Energy Policy 2003,31(9):1245- 1255
[6]Romeo Pacudan,Elaine de Guzman.Impact of energy efficiency policy to productive efficiency of electricity distribution industry in the Philippines.Energy Economics 2002,24(1):41-54
[7]M.S.Majid,F.M.Taha etc.Impact of demand-side retrofit on the energy savings at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting,2000.IEEE,Singapore 534-539
[8]S.M.Hasnain,S.H.Alawaji etc.Prospects of cool thermal storage utilization in Saudi Arabia.Energy Conversion and Management 2000,41(11):1829-1839
[9]Gehring Kay L.Can yesterday s demand-side management lessons become tomorrow's market solutions[J].The Electricity Journal,2002,15(5):63-69
[10]CovinoS.Demand side response 21st style[C].In:Proceedings of IEEE PES General Meeting,2003,4:2280-2284
[11]李永清.有序用电决策管理系统.[工程硕士论文].南京:东南大学.2005
[12]陆锦培.县级调度错峰指标分解方案.市场推介,2005,224-225
[13]刘健,王双虎,明正峰.需求侧负荷管理中最优错峰计划的生成.电力系统自动化,2006,30(8):47-50
[14]李扬,高立群,于宏涛,孔芝.一种基于非线性多目标群决策的错峰控制限电分配方法.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(7):945-948
[15]李辉珍,用电指标分配制度及其在有序用电中的应用.电力营销,2007,12:13-14
[16]窦霁虹,张东仓,张义宽.预测模型在指标化用电管理中的应用.西北大学学报(自然科学版),1999,29(4):285-288
[17]陆锦培.县级调度错峰指标分解方案.科技经济市场,2006,(08):224-225
[18]陈菲琼,朱云祥.企业超用用电指标的博弈分析.企业经济,2005,(2):85-86
[19]邵伟明.宁波中心城区应对缺电的有序用电.供用电,2004,21(6):36-40
[20]董博,张粒子,程瑜,王伟.电力市场初期供电公司优化错峰避峰计划的研究.继电器.2006,34(13):72-76
[21]杨颖.实施电力需求侧管理的效益分析.上海电力,2006,(4):56-58
[22]刘军.需求侧管理评价指标体系及评价模型.华北电力技术.2003,(7):13-15
[23]秦寿康等.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003,(11):65-67
[24]李红军.价值评价指标体系及评价模型.电网技术,2004,(7):43-45
[25]陈超仁,余岳峰,胡子珩等.DSM评估模型及新发展.电力需求侧管理,2004,(11):31-32
[26]齐佳音.企业客户价值研究:[博士学位论文].西安:西安交通大学,2002,(8):26-27
[27]董大海,汪涛.顾客价值屋模型:一种分析顾客价值要素的新方法.价值工程,2004,(4):24-27
[28]于全辉.基于价值分析的客户关系评价及其管理:[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2002,(3):85-87
[29]刘承水,乞建勋.基于价值的客户序位评价应用研究.管理科学,2005,(18)6:37-42
[30]王宏.基于粗糙集数据挖掘技术的客户价值分析:[博士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,2006,(8):33-35
[31]肖钰,李华.基于三角模糊数的判断矩阵的改进及其应用.模糊系统与数学,2003,17(2):59-64
[32]李永,胡向红,乔箭.改进的模糊层次分析法.西北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,35(1):11-12
[33]诸克军,张新兰,肖荔瑾.Fuzzy AHP方法及应用.系统工程理论与实践,1997,2(12):64-69
[34]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004,(7):161-178
[35]卢志刚,张炜,王新华,黄舒婷.多目标多层次模糊综合评价在电力企业运营状况评价中的应用.电网技术,2002,26(2):54-57
[36]郑柏杰.基于划分的聚类算法研究:[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2005
[37]Dipak Jain,Siddhartha S.Singh.Customer Lifetime Value Research In Marketing:A Review And Future Directions.Journal of Interactive Marketing,Voluml6,Number2,Spring 2002,16(2):34-46
[38]Tian-Shyug Leea,Chih-Chou Chiu,Yu-Chao Chou,Chi-Jie Lu.Mining the customer credit using classification and regression tree and multivariate adaptive regression splines.Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.2006,50:1113-1130.
[39]Masahiko Egami,Kian Esteghamat.An approximation method for analysis and valuation of credit correlation derivatives.Journal of Banking & Finance,2006,30:341 - 364
[40]Andre' Lucas,Pieter Klaassen.Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk.Journal of Banking & Finance,2006,(30):23-35
[41]唐会智,彭建春.基于模糊理论的电能质量综合量化指标研究.电网技术,2003,27(12):85-88
[42]张永娟,张志鸿,霍学喜.信用风险程度模糊综合评价模型.金融教学与研究,2004,(2):13-15
[43]袁闽杰.信用管理及其在电力企业中的应用.电力技术经济,2004,16(5):45-46
[2]国家电力公司电力需求侧管理指导中心.美国节能服务行业回顾.2005
[3]Strbae,Kirsehen.Assessing the Competitiveness of demand side bidding.PowerSystems,IEEE Transaetionson,1999,14(1):32-35
[4]Berger P.D.,Nasr N.I.Customer lifetime value:Marketing models and applications.Journal of Interactive marketing,1998,12(1):17-30
[5]Sharma,D.Parameswara etc.Analytical search of problems and prospects of power sector through Delphi study:case study of Kerala State,India.Energy Policy 2003,31(9):1245- 1255
[6]Romeo Pacudan,Elaine de Guzman.Impact of energy efficiency policy to productive efficiency of electricity distribution industry in the Philippines.Energy Economics 2002,24(1):41-54
[7]M.S.Majid,F.M.Taha etc.Impact of demand-side retrofit on the energy savings at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting,2000.IEEE,Singapore 534-539
[8]S.M.Hasnain,S.H.Alawaji etc.Prospects of cool thermal storage utilization in Saudi Arabia.Energy Conversion and Management 2000,41(11):1829-1839
[9]Gehring Kay L.Can yesterday s demand-side management lessons become tomorrow's market solutions[J].The Electricity Journal,2002,15(5):63-69
[10]CovinoS.Demand side response 21st style[C].In:Proceedings of IEEE PES General Meeting,2003,4:2280-2284
[11]李永清.有序用电决策管理系统.[工程硕士论文].南京:东南大学.2005
[12]陆锦培.县级调度错峰指标分解方案.市场推介,2005,224-225
[13]刘健,王双虎,明正峰.需求侧负荷管理中最优错峰计划的生成.电力系统自动化,2006,30(8):47-50
[14]李扬,高立群,于宏涛,孔芝.一种基于非线性多目标群决策的错峰控制限电分配方法.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(7):945-948
[15]李辉珍,用电指标分配制度及其在有序用电中的应用.电力营销,2007,12:13-14
[16]窦霁虹,张东仓,张义宽.预测模型在指标化用电管理中的应用.西北大学学报(自然科学版),1999,29(4):285-288
[17]陆锦培.县级调度错峰指标分解方案.科技经济市场,2006,(08):224-225
[18]陈菲琼,朱云祥.企业超用用电指标的博弈分析.企业经济,2005,(2):85-86
[19]邵伟明.宁波中心城区应对缺电的有序用电.供用电,2004,21(6):36-40
[20]董博,张粒子,程瑜,王伟.电力市场初期供电公司优化错峰避峰计划的研究.继电器.2006,34(13):72-76
[21]杨颖.实施电力需求侧管理的效益分析.上海电力,2006,(4):56-58
[22]刘军.需求侧管理评价指标体系及评价模型.华北电力技术.2003,(7):13-15
[23]秦寿康等.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003,(11):65-67
[24]李红军.价值评价指标体系及评价模型.电网技术,2004,(7):43-45
[25]陈超仁,余岳峰,胡子珩等.DSM评估模型及新发展.电力需求侧管理,2004,(11):31-32
[26]齐佳音.企业客户价值研究:[博士学位论文].西安:西安交通大学,2002,(8):26-27
[27]董大海,汪涛.顾客价值屋模型:一种分析顾客价值要素的新方法.价值工程,2004,(4):24-27
[28]于全辉.基于价值分析的客户关系评价及其管理:[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2002,(3):85-87
[29]刘承水,乞建勋.基于价值的客户序位评价应用研究.管理科学,2005,(18)6:37-42
[30]王宏.基于粗糙集数据挖掘技术的客户价值分析:[博士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,2006,(8):33-35
[31]肖钰,李华.基于三角模糊数的判断矩阵的改进及其应用.模糊系统与数学,2003,17(2):59-64
[32]李永,胡向红,乔箭.改进的模糊层次分析法.西北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,35(1):11-12
[33]诸克军,张新兰,肖荔瑾.Fuzzy AHP方法及应用.系统工程理论与实践,1997,2(12):64-69
[34]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004,(7):161-178
[35]卢志刚,张炜,王新华,黄舒婷.多目标多层次模糊综合评价在电力企业运营状况评价中的应用.电网技术,2002,26(2):54-57
[36]郑柏杰.基于划分的聚类算法研究:[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2005
[37]Dipak Jain,Siddhartha S.Singh.Customer Lifetime Value Research In Marketing:A Review And Future Directions.Journal of Interactive Marketing,Voluml6,Number2,Spring 2002,16(2):34-46
[38]Tian-Shyug Leea,Chih-Chou Chiu,Yu-Chao Chou,Chi-Jie Lu.Mining the customer credit using classification and regression tree and multivariate adaptive regression splines.Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.2006,50:1113-1130.
[39]Masahiko Egami,Kian Esteghamat.An approximation method for analysis and valuation of credit correlation derivatives.Journal of Banking & Finance,2006,30:341 - 364
[40]Andre' Lucas,Pieter Klaassen.Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk.Journal of Banking & Finance,2006,(30):23-35
[41]唐会智,彭建春.基于模糊理论的电能质量综合量化指标研究.电网技术,2003,27(12):85-88
[42]张永娟,张志鸿,霍学喜.信用风险程度模糊综合评价模型.金融教学与研究,2004,(2):13-15
[43]袁闽杰.信用管理及其在电力企业中的应用.电力技术经济,2004,16(5):45-46