FDI的技术溢出及其门槛特征：来自中国省级数据的经验研究
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摘要
自1978年改革开放以来,中国在经济领域的巨大成就让世人为之瞩目和赞叹。但是,中国的经济增长模式还过多地依靠着要素大量投入和牺牲环境来加以推动,在国际环保呼声日益高涨和国内环境状况愈发恶化的情况下,过去的粗放式经济增长模式已经不可持续,新型的以“经济结构转型、技术创新和微观企业管理制度创新等”为特征的“熊彼特增长”模式注定成为历史潮流。如何才能更好地推动我国经济增长模式的转变,学者们普遍认同技术进步的重要作用。在开放的经济系统中,要想获得持续的技术水平提升,需要依赖于国内外力量,也就是需要国内技术研发和国际技术溢出的共同推动。
在国际技术溢出层面上,外商直接投资(FDI)的重要作用早已被学术界所关注,虽然能够有效弥补东道国的资金技术不足,并通过竞争效应、人员培训和流动效应、示范和模仿效应、前后向关联效应等渠道产生技术溢出效应,从而提升东道国企业的技术水平,但也有“市场窃取”和恶化环境等负向作用。如何趋利避害地从外资引入中获益,成为学者们热议的话题之一
现有文献在研究外商直接投资的技术溢出效应时,大多只是研究了外商直接投资对生产技术进步的溢出效应,忽略了外商直接投资对治污技术进步的溢出效应。并且,现有文献在研究外商直接投资技术溢出效应的门槛特征时,往往集中在技术差距等常规变量上,未能有新的拓展。
为了丰富已有文献,本文在刻画出外商直接投资省际格局差异的基础上,先结合使用随机前沿和数据包络方法估算出中国省际1995-2011年的传统技术进步(不考虑环境因素)和综合技术进步(考虑环境因素)水平,然后运用面板门槛技术,重点探讨了人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值对外商直接投资技术溢出效应的差异化影响,对FDI的技术进步溢出效应及其门槛特征进行分析,重点研究了以下几方面内容,并得出相应结论：
(1)基于泰尔指数的研究显示,外商直接投资在全国整体呈现了显著的收敛趋势,且东中西部的组间差异是引致总体差异的最大因素,也正是因为组间差异的迅速缩小,导致总体差异趋于收敛。同时,东部内部的差距趋于缩小,而中部和西部内部的差距则趋于扩大。
(2)在估算效率水平时,本文首先使用随机前沿方法剔除了产出中的随机因素,然后将调整后的数据使用数据包络方法来求出相应的技术进步水平。结果发现综合全要素生产率低于传统全要素生产率,初步表明我国近年来的经济增长是以牺牲环境,特别是大量消耗能源、大量排放二氧化碳来实现的；发现不论是传统框架还是综合全要素框架下的技术进步变化率和技术效率变化率之间均具备负相关关系,意味着随着技术水平的不断提高,技术效率反而呈现逐步降低趋势。
(3)本文不仅研究了外商直接投资对生产技术水平的溢出效应,而且将环境因素纳入分析框架,分析了外商直接投资对综合技术进步的影响,以期能够更为全面地对外商直接投资的作用进行评价。结果发现外商直接投资对传统技术进步上的溢出效应大于其对综合技术进步的溢出效应,说明我国当前引进的外商直接投资虽然技术水平较高,但在污染减排上则不占优势。同时,在东部的技术溢出效应均大于其在中部和西部的溢出效应,在2003-2011年间的技术溢出效应大于1995-2002年间。
(4)在门槛分析中,本文发现良好的人力资本水平和市场化程度不仅能够直接提高我国企业的技术水平,还能够通过加速外商直接投资的技术进步溢出效应来间接促进我国企业的技术水平。同时,本文还创新性地研究了工业服务业比值在促进技术进步中的直接与间接作用,从而体现了工业和服务业之间相互外部性的重要作用,并初步解释了中国“去工业化”和美国“再工业化”的悖论。不过,要想获得显著的技术进步溢出效应,需要人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值跨越一定的门槛取值,且东中西部和不同时期呈现了差异化的门槛特征。
本文的研究在理论上和实践上都蕴含着一定的政策涵义,其中,最重要的政策建议就是应当有针对性地改进中国各省份在人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值上的现状,从而保障他们能够直接和间接地促进我国企业的技术水平,以来推动中国经济绿色健康和持续稳定的发展。
Since the reform and opening in1978, China has obtained great achievements in the economic field which attracted worldwide attention and praise. However, China's economic growth model still relies on a large quantity of input factors at the expense of the environment. Considering international environmental voice is rising and domestic environment is getting worse, extensive economic growth mode in the past has not been sustainable. The Schumpeterian growth model, a new type which is characterized by economic restructuring, technological innovation and micro-enterprise management system innovation, is destined to become the historical trend. Scholars generally agree that technological progress is playing an important role in the transformation of the economic growth mode in China. In opening economic systems, continuous technology promotion needs domestic and foreign forces, including domestic technology research and international technology spillovers.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is playing an important role in the international technology spillover levels, which has long been a concern in academic circles. A large number of studies have pointed out that the introduction of foreign direct investment is like a double-edged sword. On the positive side, it can make up for lack of funds and technology of the host country, generate technology spillover effect through the competition effect, personnel training and flow effect, demonstration and imitation effect, forward and backward linkage effect and other channels or angles, thus raising the level of technology in the host country enterprise. But, it also has a negative effect by "stealing market" and causing the deterioration of the environment. How to benefit from the introduction of foreign capital while avoiding disadvantages has become one of the hot topics of scholars.
Existing literature on the study of technology spillover effects of foreign direct investment is mostly focused on technological progress of production, while ignoring the spillover effects on technology progress of pollution control. Nevertheless, the study of threshold characteristics of foreign direct investment technology spillovers tends to focus on the technology gap and other conventional variables, but lacks attention on new expansion.
Therefore, this paper discusses the influence of the level of human capital, the degree of marketization and the industrial services ratio on the difference in spillover effect of FDI with the application of panel threshold technology, which is based on the depiction of foreign direct investment in the provincial pattern differences, using data envelopment and stochastic frontier approach to estimate the Chinese provincial traditional technical level (without considering environmental factors) and comprehensive technical level (considering environmental factors) in1995-2011, to reach the following conclusions.
Based on the Theil index, it shows that foreign direct investment has the significant trend of nationwide convergence, and the differences among eastern, central and western part of the country is the biggest factor that causes the overall difference. It is the difference between the two groups' rapid narrowing that lead to the overall difference tending to convergence. Meanwhile, the gap between the eastern interior tends to shrink, while the gap between the central and western interior tends to expand.
While estimating the level of efficiency, with the use of stochastic frontier approach that excludes the random factors of output, and then using data envelopment approach on adjusted data to determine appropriate level of technology advancement, this paper found that the total factor environment productivity is lower than traditional total factor productivity, which suggests that China's recent economic growth is at the expense of the environment, especially the large energy consumptions and emissions of carbon dioxide. There is a negative correlation between the rate of progress in technology and the change of technical efficiency, whether under the traditional or total factor productivity framework. It means that as the technology continues to improve, technical efficiency is showing a gradual decreasing trend.
This paper not only studies the spillover effect of FDI on the level of production technology, but also takes environmental factors into analysis framework, thus analyzing the impact of foreign direct investment on comprehensive technical progress, with the intent to evaluate the role of foreign direct investment fully. And this paper found that spillover effects of foreign direct investment in the traditional technical level is greater than that in the consolidated technology, showing that the current introduction of foreign direct investment in China is at a high technology level, but not dominant in pollution reduction. Simultaneously, in the eastern part of the country, the technology spillover effect is greater than in the central and western regions, and during2003-2011, it is larger than that between1995-2002.
In the threshold analysis, it is found that a good level of human capital and the degree of marketization are not only directly improving the technological level of enterprises in our country, but is also promoting the technological level of China's enterprises indirectly through accelerating the technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment. At the same time, this paper researches the service industry ratio's direct and indirect influence on technology progress, which reflected the important role of mutual externality between industry and services, and could initially explain the Chinese "de-industrialization" and the American "re-industrialization". However, in order to get technology spillover effect significantly, human capital, the degree of marketization and the ratio of industrial services should cross certain threshold values, and in different periods, with the eastern, central and western regions presenting different threshold characteristics.
This paper could raise many policy implications in theory and practice, of which the most important policy implication deduced from these conclusions is that implication should be targeted to improve China's present situation of human capital level, the degree of marketization and the industrial services ratio in all provinces to ensure that they can promote the technology of Chinese enterprises directly and indirectly, thus realizing green, healthy and steady development of China's economy.
在国际技术溢出层面上,外商直接投资(FDI)的重要作用早已被学术界所关注,虽然能够有效弥补东道国的资金技术不足,并通过竞争效应、人员培训和流动效应、示范和模仿效应、前后向关联效应等渠道产生技术溢出效应,从而提升东道国企业的技术水平,但也有“市场窃取”和恶化环境等负向作用。如何趋利避害地从外资引入中获益,成为学者们热议的话题之一
现有文献在研究外商直接投资的技术溢出效应时,大多只是研究了外商直接投资对生产技术进步的溢出效应,忽略了外商直接投资对治污技术进步的溢出效应。并且,现有文献在研究外商直接投资技术溢出效应的门槛特征时,往往集中在技术差距等常规变量上,未能有新的拓展。
为了丰富已有文献,本文在刻画出外商直接投资省际格局差异的基础上,先结合使用随机前沿和数据包络方法估算出中国省际1995-2011年的传统技术进步(不考虑环境因素)和综合技术进步(考虑环境因素)水平,然后运用面板门槛技术,重点探讨了人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值对外商直接投资技术溢出效应的差异化影响,对FDI的技术进步溢出效应及其门槛特征进行分析,重点研究了以下几方面内容,并得出相应结论：
(1)基于泰尔指数的研究显示,外商直接投资在全国整体呈现了显著的收敛趋势,且东中西部的组间差异是引致总体差异的最大因素,也正是因为组间差异的迅速缩小,导致总体差异趋于收敛。同时,东部内部的差距趋于缩小,而中部和西部内部的差距则趋于扩大。
(2)在估算效率水平时,本文首先使用随机前沿方法剔除了产出中的随机因素,然后将调整后的数据使用数据包络方法来求出相应的技术进步水平。结果发现综合全要素生产率低于传统全要素生产率,初步表明我国近年来的经济增长是以牺牲环境,特别是大量消耗能源、大量排放二氧化碳来实现的；发现不论是传统框架还是综合全要素框架下的技术进步变化率和技术效率变化率之间均具备负相关关系,意味着随着技术水平的不断提高,技术效率反而呈现逐步降低趋势。
(3)本文不仅研究了外商直接投资对生产技术水平的溢出效应,而且将环境因素纳入分析框架,分析了外商直接投资对综合技术进步的影响,以期能够更为全面地对外商直接投资的作用进行评价。结果发现外商直接投资对传统技术进步上的溢出效应大于其对综合技术进步的溢出效应,说明我国当前引进的外商直接投资虽然技术水平较高,但在污染减排上则不占优势。同时,在东部的技术溢出效应均大于其在中部和西部的溢出效应,在2003-2011年间的技术溢出效应大于1995-2002年间。
(4)在门槛分析中,本文发现良好的人力资本水平和市场化程度不仅能够直接提高我国企业的技术水平,还能够通过加速外商直接投资的技术进步溢出效应来间接促进我国企业的技术水平。同时,本文还创新性地研究了工业服务业比值在促进技术进步中的直接与间接作用,从而体现了工业和服务业之间相互外部性的重要作用,并初步解释了中国“去工业化”和美国“再工业化”的悖论。不过,要想获得显著的技术进步溢出效应,需要人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值跨越一定的门槛取值,且东中西部和不同时期呈现了差异化的门槛特征。
本文的研究在理论上和实践上都蕴含着一定的政策涵义,其中,最重要的政策建议就是应当有针对性地改进中国各省份在人力资本水平、市场化程度和工业服务业比值上的现状,从而保障他们能够直接和间接地促进我国企业的技术水平,以来推动中国经济绿色健康和持续稳定的发展。
Since the reform and opening in1978, China has obtained great achievements in the economic field which attracted worldwide attention and praise. However, China's economic growth model still relies on a large quantity of input factors at the expense of the environment. Considering international environmental voice is rising and domestic environment is getting worse, extensive economic growth mode in the past has not been sustainable. The Schumpeterian growth model, a new type which is characterized by economic restructuring, technological innovation and micro-enterprise management system innovation, is destined to become the historical trend. Scholars generally agree that technological progress is playing an important role in the transformation of the economic growth mode in China. In opening economic systems, continuous technology promotion needs domestic and foreign forces, including domestic technology research and international technology spillovers.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is playing an important role in the international technology spillover levels, which has long been a concern in academic circles. A large number of studies have pointed out that the introduction of foreign direct investment is like a double-edged sword. On the positive side, it can make up for lack of funds and technology of the host country, generate technology spillover effect through the competition effect, personnel training and flow effect, demonstration and imitation effect, forward and backward linkage effect and other channels or angles, thus raising the level of technology in the host country enterprise. But, it also has a negative effect by "stealing market" and causing the deterioration of the environment. How to benefit from the introduction of foreign capital while avoiding disadvantages has become one of the hot topics of scholars.
Existing literature on the study of technology spillover effects of foreign direct investment is mostly focused on technological progress of production, while ignoring the spillover effects on technology progress of pollution control. Nevertheless, the study of threshold characteristics of foreign direct investment technology spillovers tends to focus on the technology gap and other conventional variables, but lacks attention on new expansion.
Therefore, this paper discusses the influence of the level of human capital, the degree of marketization and the industrial services ratio on the difference in spillover effect of FDI with the application of panel threshold technology, which is based on the depiction of foreign direct investment in the provincial pattern differences, using data envelopment and stochastic frontier approach to estimate the Chinese provincial traditional technical level (without considering environmental factors) and comprehensive technical level (considering environmental factors) in1995-2011, to reach the following conclusions.
Based on the Theil index, it shows that foreign direct investment has the significant trend of nationwide convergence, and the differences among eastern, central and western part of the country is the biggest factor that causes the overall difference. It is the difference between the two groups' rapid narrowing that lead to the overall difference tending to convergence. Meanwhile, the gap between the eastern interior tends to shrink, while the gap between the central and western interior tends to expand.
While estimating the level of efficiency, with the use of stochastic frontier approach that excludes the random factors of output, and then using data envelopment approach on adjusted data to determine appropriate level of technology advancement, this paper found that the total factor environment productivity is lower than traditional total factor productivity, which suggests that China's recent economic growth is at the expense of the environment, especially the large energy consumptions and emissions of carbon dioxide. There is a negative correlation between the rate of progress in technology and the change of technical efficiency, whether under the traditional or total factor productivity framework. It means that as the technology continues to improve, technical efficiency is showing a gradual decreasing trend.
This paper not only studies the spillover effect of FDI on the level of production technology, but also takes environmental factors into analysis framework, thus analyzing the impact of foreign direct investment on comprehensive technical progress, with the intent to evaluate the role of foreign direct investment fully. And this paper found that spillover effects of foreign direct investment in the traditional technical level is greater than that in the consolidated technology, showing that the current introduction of foreign direct investment in China is at a high technology level, but not dominant in pollution reduction. Simultaneously, in the eastern part of the country, the technology spillover effect is greater than in the central and western regions, and during2003-2011, it is larger than that between1995-2002.
In the threshold analysis, it is found that a good level of human capital and the degree of marketization are not only directly improving the technological level of enterprises in our country, but is also promoting the technological level of China's enterprises indirectly through accelerating the technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment. At the same time, this paper researches the service industry ratio's direct and indirect influence on technology progress, which reflected the important role of mutual externality between industry and services, and could initially explain the Chinese "de-industrialization" and the American "re-industrialization". However, in order to get technology spillover effect significantly, human capital, the degree of marketization and the ratio of industrial services should cross certain threshold values, and in different periods, with the eastern, central and western regions presenting different threshold characteristics.
This paper could raise many policy implications in theory and practice, of which the most important policy implication deduced from these conclusions is that implication should be targeted to improve China's present situation of human capital level, the degree of marketization and the industrial services ratio in all provinces to ensure that they can promote the technology of Chinese enterprises directly and indirectly, thus realizing green, healthy and steady development of China's economy.
引文
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① 虽然有大量研究认为在估算时应当采用超越对数生产函数,但超越对数生产函数是严格均衡状态下生产函数的泰勒级数展开,而我国的要素价格与均衡状态水平长期趋于偏离,硬生套用的结果往往导致不可信的结果。
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② 在运用SFA方法求出剔除随机因素之后的正常产出水平yit后,在使用DEA方法计算效率水平时,使用的产出就是yit。
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③ CO2计算时采用的能源为煤炭、焦炭、原油、汽油、煤气、柴油、燃料油和天然气8种,基于此计算出的CO2排放系数分别为1.96、2.85、3.05、2.93、3.05、3.09、3.19、21.65(单位为：万吨CO2/万吨或万吨CO2/亿立方米)。 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算：1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10)：35-44.
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② 之所以考虑二氧化碳,是鉴于其在全球经济发展中、我国在哥本哈根会议及国民经济十二五规划中的重要地位。二氧化硫和化学需氧量在我国政府报告中的地位亦十分重要,但前者的数据主要集中在工业领域,其他经济领域的排放量数据不可得,后者的数据则始于2003年,可用的数据年份较短。至于固废排放量的相关数据,其数据质量更是由于数据跨度段、数据缺漏严重而难以合理使用。
③ 为了便于区分,我们姑且将全要素框架下的产出调整值命名为正常产出(调整1),将综合全要素框架下的产出调整值命名为正常产出(调整2)。
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② 之所以没有选择COD是因为COD的数据始于2003年。
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① 对于“染避难所假说”,张成(2011)认为有必要将其进一步划分为“相对污染避难所假说”和“绝对污染避难所假说”。当某个产业在发达国家A属于污染密集型产业,在本国严格环境规制政策的作用下,被迫转移到了落后国家B,A国转出的污染密集型产业因生产技术和治污技术远远领先于B国,在B国反而成为相对清洁的产业,此种情况属于“相对污染避难所假说”；但如果A国转移出的污染密集型产业在B国也属于污染相对严重的产业之列,进一步恶化了B国的生态环境,则此种情况则属于“绝对污染避难所假说”。从本次实证结果来看,外资在资本、劳动和二氧化碳三种要素投入上的综合技术效率普遍优于内资,即使存在污染避难所假说,也普遍仅属于相对污染避难所假说。不过,我们也必须注意到,外资在环境污染减排技术上对我国的领先优势可能不如生产技术上的领先优势大,从而导致一旦纳入环境要素,使得相应的技术水平溢出效应有所降低。张成.内资和外资：谁更有利于环境保护—来自我国工业部门面板数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(2)：98-106.
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① 虽然有大量研究认为在估算时应当采用超越对数生产函数,但超越对数生产函数是严格均衡状态下生产函数的泰勒级数展开,而我国的要素价格与均衡状态水平长期趋于偏离,硬生套用的结果往往导致不可信的结果。
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② 在运用SFA方法求出剔除随机因素之后的正常产出水平yit后,在使用DEA方法计算效率水平时,使用的产出就是yit。
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③ CO2计算时采用的能源为煤炭、焦炭、原油、汽油、煤气、柴油、燃料油和天然气8种,基于此计算出的CO2排放系数分别为1.96、2.85、3.05、2.93、3.05、3.09、3.19、21.65(单位为：万吨CO2/万吨或万吨CO2/亿立方米)。 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算：1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004(10)：35-44.
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② 之所以考虑二氧化碳,是鉴于其在全球经济发展中、我国在哥本哈根会议及国民经济十二五规划中的重要地位。二氧化硫和化学需氧量在我国政府报告中的地位亦十分重要,但前者的数据主要集中在工业领域,其他经济领域的排放量数据不可得,后者的数据则始于2003年,可用的数据年份较短。至于固废排放量的相关数据,其数据质量更是由于数据跨度段、数据缺漏严重而难以合理使用。
③ 为了便于区分,我们姑且将全要素框架下的产出调整值命名为正常产出(调整1),将综合全要素框架下的产出调整值命名为正常产出(调整2)。
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② 之所以没有选择COD是因为COD的数据始于2003年。
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① 对于“染避难所假说”,张成(2011)认为有必要将其进一步划分为“相对污染避难所假说”和“绝对污染避难所假说”。当某个产业在发达国家A属于污染密集型产业,在本国严格环境规制政策的作用下,被迫转移到了落后国家B,A国转出的污染密集型产业因生产技术和治污技术远远领先于B国,在B国反而成为相对清洁的产业,此种情况属于“相对污染避难所假说”；但如果A国转移出的污染密集型产业在B国也属于污染相对严重的产业之列,进一步恶化了B国的生态环境,则此种情况则属于“绝对污染避难所假说”。从本次实证结果来看,外资在资本、劳动和二氧化碳三种要素投入上的综合技术效率普遍优于内资,即使存在污染避难所假说,也普遍仅属于相对污染避难所假说。不过,我们也必须注意到,外资在环境污染减排技术上对我国的领先优势可能不如生产技术上的领先优势大,从而导致一旦纳入环境要素,使得相应的技术水平溢出效应有所降低。张成.内资和外资：谁更有利于环境保护—来自我国工业部门面板数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(2)：98-106.
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