区域房价差异与工业企业创新行为
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摘要
随着住房市场化制度改革的深入进行,1998年,国务院下发《关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革加快住房建设的通知》。其中明确提出在全国范围内全面停止住房实物分配,标志着在我国沿袭了40多年的福利分房制度宣告结束。1998年我国商品房销售面积为1.07亿平方米,2008年增加到5.55亿平方米,年均增长20%。除了旺盛的需求,房地产的供求关系还受到诸多因素的影响,并最终反映为这段时期房价的持续上涨。
房价的持续上涨使房地产行业在一段时期维持着较高的回报率。一般来讲,当某一行业出现超额收益率,就会对资本产生吸引力。近年来,可以看到大量工业企业进入房地产行业。从长期来看,资本流向房地产,实体经济则长期得不到资本投入。由于知识的积累具有连贯性,资本投入不足,创新能力下降,影响产业的竞争力,对经济长期发展产生不利影响。本文利用大中型工业企业数据库,通过手动搜集非房地产上市企业进入房地产数据和上市公司专利数据,系统研究了房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。具体来讲,我们分别从房价上涨对企业研发投入的抑制效应,房价上涨对企业房地产多元化以及房价上涨,企业房地产多元化对专利产出的抑制影响三个方面研究了房价上涨对企业创新行业的影响。
遵循观察经济现象,寻找因果关系,检验传导路径的思路,本文研究了我国房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。本文共6个章节,各章节主要内容安排如下：
第一章是导论。该部分详细介绍了本文的研究背景,通过对现象的总结,提出研究问题和研究内容。并指出本文研究创新及不足之处。
第二章是文献综述。文献综述包括三部份内容,第一,本文梳理了资产价格泡沫与投资和经济增长相关文献。由于国内对该领域研究较少,该部分文献以国外文献为主；第二,本文梳理了房地产与经济增长相关的国内外文献；第三,本文梳理了国内与房价相关的研究文献。
第三章研究了房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。根据第三章研究结果我们发现,房价上涨总体抑制了企业创新投入。一些不可观测的地区因素,例如地方政府的政策引导可能会同时造成房价上涨和企业研发投入下降。我们使用了动态面板模型来解决潜在的内生性问题。使用动态面板模型的回归结果与主要回归结果一致。进一步的研究结果还显示,房价上涨对外资企业的新产品开发及研发投入影响较小,对大规模企业的新产品开发和研发投入影响较大。本章最后,我们还使用2004年实施的土地招、拍、挂政策作为准自然实验,检验了该政策的实施对私有企业新产品开发的影响。结果表明,该政策实施后,由于私有企业进入房地产的可能性增加,房价上涨对私有企业的新产品开发和研发投入的抑制影响更加严重。
第四章,本文利用35个大中城市非房地产上市企业为样本,研究了房价上涨对非房地产企业进入房地产行业的影响。我们认为,房价上涨吸引工业企业将资本投入房地产行业,是导致新产品产出和研发投入下降的主要原因。但是由于数据限制,我们无法观测到大中型工业企业进入房地产的行为。实证结果表明,房价上涨较快的地区,非房地产企业进入房地产行业的可能性越大。为解决回归模型中潜在的内生性问题。我们使用工具变量并采用两阶段最小二乘法进行估计。结果显示,房价上涨对企业进入房地产的影响仍然显著为正。房价上涨吸引企业进入是利润驱动的结果。利润驱动假说意味着,收益水平较低企业为改善经营业绩更有可能进入房地产。研究结论也证实了这一假设。同时,在股市收益率较高的年份,企业进入房地产的可能性会显著降低。说明,投资股市和投资房地产存在替代关系。这些结果均支持了利润驱动假说。
第五章,本文利用上市公司的专利数据,研究了企业进入房地产对专利数量的影响。如果房价上涨导致企业将资金转投房地产,从而减少研发投入,我们可以预期,房价变动对进入房地产企业的研发投入的负面影响更加严重。由于上交所与深交所没有强制上市公司披露研发相关信息,上市公司研发信息披露质量参差不齐。我们使用上市公司的专利数据衡量企业创新水平。对专利数据的搜集是本章的难点,也是本文的另一重要贡献。利用上市公司专利数据和进入房地产数据,本文实证检验了房价变动对进入房地产企业专利产出的影响。与我们预期一致,进入房地产的企业,其专利产出受房价上涨的负面影响更加严重。至此,我们为房价上涨影响企业创新这一假说提供了完整的证据链条。
第六章对全文进行总结,阐明了本文研究的不足和缺陷,同时指出了进一步研究方向。
房价上涨对于企业投资决策的影响,无论从理论还是实证方面,在国外已有较多的研究。但是大多数研究主要是基于“房价上涨导致抵押品升值”的角度,探讨房价上涨对企业投资的促进作用。并且,多数研究是针对企业的资本投入。而关于企业研发投入的研究则较少。本文的贡献在于首次通过对企业微观数据的研究,提供了“房价上涨抑制企业创新”的证据,是对相关文献的重要补充。
虽然研究上市公司的研发活动具有很高的学术价值,但是,一直以来,我国A股上市公司的研发情况和创新能力都缺乏令人信服的量度。因此,相关的研究也乏善可陈。本文的另一个创新之处在于,我们将首次使用较为可靠的方法计算上市公司的专利申请数量,作为企业创新程度的量度来分析上市公司的创新活动。这也是目前国际上通行的研究企业创新的办法。
本文的研究也存在诸多不足之处。例如,由于数据限制,我们无法观测到进入房地产的企业在房地产行业的投资规模,只能采用是否进入房地产衡量企业投资决策。另外,企业进入房地产后是否会如预期获取高额回报,获取利润后是否会反哺主业等一系列问题都值得进一步的研究和探讨。
With the deepening of the housing reform, in1998the State Council of China issued the "Announcement on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Speeding up Housing Construction". This announcement put a full cessation of the welfare housing distribution, which had lasted for40years in China. Since then, the demand for housing surged. The square meters of new construction sold in1998were110million, surged to560million in2008, with an annual growth rate of20%. This surging demand, along with other factors, resulted in a persistent increase in housing price during this period.
This housing boom is characterized by a higher-than-average ROR in the real estate industry.The high return of real estate is attractive to capital. Recently, we can observe a lot of manufacturing firms involving in the real estate. It is a rational reaction to the high return of real estate that manufacturing firms engaging in this industry while reducing their innovation investment. However, the individual rationality does not imply the overall efficienty of resource allocation, especially regarding to the long-time economic growth. This paper investgate the impact of the housing boom on firm innovation by examing the scaled industrial firms in35major cities in China. In detail, we test the impact of housing boom on firms' innovation propensities and firms'entry to real estate separately. Then, we test the interaction effect of growth rate of housing price and firms'entry to real estate on the patent of listed firms.
The thesis consists of six chapters, which are organized as follows.
The first chapter is introduction, which brings forward the background and the questions. We also point out the contribution and the shortage of the thesis.
Chapter two is literature review. We review and discuss the related literatures from three different dimensions. First, we review the researches about the effect of asset bubble on investment and economic growth. And then, we move to the studies of the relationship of real estate and economic growth. At last, we give a brief review of domestic studies, which focus on the housing price.
In chapter three, we study the effect of housing boom on firms' innovation. The estimation result indicates that the housing boom has a negative effect on manufacturing firms'innovative propensities. Some time-variant unobserved regional factors may affect the result. We use dynamic GMM to solve the problem. The result from the dynamic GMM is consistent with the basic result. A further studies show that the negative effect is less influential in foreign firms or small-sized firms. The innovation propensities of private firms become sensitive to the change of housing price after a listed auction (zhaopaigua) is required by the Central Government for any urban land transfer in2004.
In chapter four, we study the affect of housing boom on firms'entry to real estate. The results indicate that the manufacturing listed firms are more likely to engage in real estate in cities where housing price is surging. We use two-stage IV estimation to solve the endogenous problem. The results of IV estimation are consistent with the basic results. The profit driven hypothesis implies that firms with low ROA are more likely to engage in real estate. Meanwhile, in the year the stock market surging, the propensities of firms'entry to real estate decrease.
In chapter five, we study the interactiong effect of firms'entry to real estate and housing price on the patent of the listed firms using patent data. Since the listed firms are not forced the disclosure their R&D information, the qualities of R&D information of different firms are varies. We use the patent as the measurement of innovation capacity. The selection of patent data is the difficulty of theis chapter and it is also the main contribution of the thesis. The estimation results show that the firms which have engaged in real estate are more sensitive to the change of housing price. So far, we provide and complete chain of evidence for the hypothesis that the housing bomm has negative effect on manufacturing firms' innovation.
In chapter six, we summarize the main finding of the thesis. Possible extensions of the study are also discussed.
A lot of literatures have studied the effect of housing boom on firms' investment decisions, both theoretically and empirically. Most of the studies are based on the hypothesis that housing boom increases the value of mortgage. Also, most of the studies focus on the physical investment. Little researches pay attension to the innovation. This thesis provides the evidence that the housing bomm has negative effect on firms' innovation for the first time. This thesis is an important complementary to the related literature. This is the main contribution of our study.
Although the research about the R&D of listed firms has great academic value, the qualities of data measuring the listed firms'innovation capacity is poor. The other contribution of our study is that we find a convincible method to calculate the patent number of listed firms. Patent is and important measurement for firms' innovation capacity, which is commonly used in the related studies.
There are some deficiencies and flaws in our study. For example, since data limited we can not observe the scale of the investment on real estate of the firm which has engaged in real estate. We only use the dummy variable whether the firm entry the real estate as the measurement of investment decision. Another interesting question is whether manufacturing firm would back to feed their original busisness after making profit from real estate. All these are worth further studies.
房价的持续上涨使房地产行业在一段时期维持着较高的回报率。一般来讲,当某一行业出现超额收益率,就会对资本产生吸引力。近年来,可以看到大量工业企业进入房地产行业。从长期来看,资本流向房地产,实体经济则长期得不到资本投入。由于知识的积累具有连贯性,资本投入不足,创新能力下降,影响产业的竞争力,对经济长期发展产生不利影响。本文利用大中型工业企业数据库,通过手动搜集非房地产上市企业进入房地产数据和上市公司专利数据,系统研究了房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。具体来讲,我们分别从房价上涨对企业研发投入的抑制效应,房价上涨对企业房地产多元化以及房价上涨,企业房地产多元化对专利产出的抑制影响三个方面研究了房价上涨对企业创新行业的影响。
遵循观察经济现象,寻找因果关系,检验传导路径的思路,本文研究了我国房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。本文共6个章节,各章节主要内容安排如下：
第一章是导论。该部分详细介绍了本文的研究背景,通过对现象的总结,提出研究问题和研究内容。并指出本文研究创新及不足之处。
第二章是文献综述。文献综述包括三部份内容,第一,本文梳理了资产价格泡沫与投资和经济增长相关文献。由于国内对该领域研究较少,该部分文献以国外文献为主；第二,本文梳理了房地产与经济增长相关的国内外文献；第三,本文梳理了国内与房价相关的研究文献。
第三章研究了房价上涨对工业企业创新行为的影响。根据第三章研究结果我们发现,房价上涨总体抑制了企业创新投入。一些不可观测的地区因素,例如地方政府的政策引导可能会同时造成房价上涨和企业研发投入下降。我们使用了动态面板模型来解决潜在的内生性问题。使用动态面板模型的回归结果与主要回归结果一致。进一步的研究结果还显示,房价上涨对外资企业的新产品开发及研发投入影响较小,对大规模企业的新产品开发和研发投入影响较大。本章最后,我们还使用2004年实施的土地招、拍、挂政策作为准自然实验,检验了该政策的实施对私有企业新产品开发的影响。结果表明,该政策实施后,由于私有企业进入房地产的可能性增加,房价上涨对私有企业的新产品开发和研发投入的抑制影响更加严重。
第四章,本文利用35个大中城市非房地产上市企业为样本,研究了房价上涨对非房地产企业进入房地产行业的影响。我们认为,房价上涨吸引工业企业将资本投入房地产行业,是导致新产品产出和研发投入下降的主要原因。但是由于数据限制,我们无法观测到大中型工业企业进入房地产的行为。实证结果表明,房价上涨较快的地区,非房地产企业进入房地产行业的可能性越大。为解决回归模型中潜在的内生性问题。我们使用工具变量并采用两阶段最小二乘法进行估计。结果显示,房价上涨对企业进入房地产的影响仍然显著为正。房价上涨吸引企业进入是利润驱动的结果。利润驱动假说意味着,收益水平较低企业为改善经营业绩更有可能进入房地产。研究结论也证实了这一假设。同时,在股市收益率较高的年份,企业进入房地产的可能性会显著降低。说明,投资股市和投资房地产存在替代关系。这些结果均支持了利润驱动假说。
第五章,本文利用上市公司的专利数据,研究了企业进入房地产对专利数量的影响。如果房价上涨导致企业将资金转投房地产,从而减少研发投入,我们可以预期,房价变动对进入房地产企业的研发投入的负面影响更加严重。由于上交所与深交所没有强制上市公司披露研发相关信息,上市公司研发信息披露质量参差不齐。我们使用上市公司的专利数据衡量企业创新水平。对专利数据的搜集是本章的难点,也是本文的另一重要贡献。利用上市公司专利数据和进入房地产数据,本文实证检验了房价变动对进入房地产企业专利产出的影响。与我们预期一致,进入房地产的企业,其专利产出受房价上涨的负面影响更加严重。至此,我们为房价上涨影响企业创新这一假说提供了完整的证据链条。
第六章对全文进行总结,阐明了本文研究的不足和缺陷,同时指出了进一步研究方向。
房价上涨对于企业投资决策的影响,无论从理论还是实证方面,在国外已有较多的研究。但是大多数研究主要是基于“房价上涨导致抵押品升值”的角度,探讨房价上涨对企业投资的促进作用。并且,多数研究是针对企业的资本投入。而关于企业研发投入的研究则较少。本文的贡献在于首次通过对企业微观数据的研究,提供了“房价上涨抑制企业创新”的证据,是对相关文献的重要补充。
虽然研究上市公司的研发活动具有很高的学术价值,但是,一直以来,我国A股上市公司的研发情况和创新能力都缺乏令人信服的量度。因此,相关的研究也乏善可陈。本文的另一个创新之处在于,我们将首次使用较为可靠的方法计算上市公司的专利申请数量,作为企业创新程度的量度来分析上市公司的创新活动。这也是目前国际上通行的研究企业创新的办法。
本文的研究也存在诸多不足之处。例如,由于数据限制,我们无法观测到进入房地产的企业在房地产行业的投资规模,只能采用是否进入房地产衡量企业投资决策。另外,企业进入房地产后是否会如预期获取高额回报,获取利润后是否会反哺主业等一系列问题都值得进一步的研究和探讨。
With the deepening of the housing reform, in1998the State Council of China issued the "Announcement on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Speeding up Housing Construction". This announcement put a full cessation of the welfare housing distribution, which had lasted for40years in China. Since then, the demand for housing surged. The square meters of new construction sold in1998were110million, surged to560million in2008, with an annual growth rate of20%. This surging demand, along with other factors, resulted in a persistent increase in housing price during this period.
This housing boom is characterized by a higher-than-average ROR in the real estate industry.The high return of real estate is attractive to capital. Recently, we can observe a lot of manufacturing firms involving in the real estate. It is a rational reaction to the high return of real estate that manufacturing firms engaging in this industry while reducing their innovation investment. However, the individual rationality does not imply the overall efficienty of resource allocation, especially regarding to the long-time economic growth. This paper investgate the impact of the housing boom on firm innovation by examing the scaled industrial firms in35major cities in China. In detail, we test the impact of housing boom on firms' innovation propensities and firms'entry to real estate separately. Then, we test the interaction effect of growth rate of housing price and firms'entry to real estate on the patent of listed firms.
The thesis consists of six chapters, which are organized as follows.
The first chapter is introduction, which brings forward the background and the questions. We also point out the contribution and the shortage of the thesis.
Chapter two is literature review. We review and discuss the related literatures from three different dimensions. First, we review the researches about the effect of asset bubble on investment and economic growth. And then, we move to the studies of the relationship of real estate and economic growth. At last, we give a brief review of domestic studies, which focus on the housing price.
In chapter three, we study the effect of housing boom on firms' innovation. The estimation result indicates that the housing boom has a negative effect on manufacturing firms'innovative propensities. Some time-variant unobserved regional factors may affect the result. We use dynamic GMM to solve the problem. The result from the dynamic GMM is consistent with the basic result. A further studies show that the negative effect is less influential in foreign firms or small-sized firms. The innovation propensities of private firms become sensitive to the change of housing price after a listed auction (zhaopaigua) is required by the Central Government for any urban land transfer in2004.
In chapter four, we study the affect of housing boom on firms'entry to real estate. The results indicate that the manufacturing listed firms are more likely to engage in real estate in cities where housing price is surging. We use two-stage IV estimation to solve the endogenous problem. The results of IV estimation are consistent with the basic results. The profit driven hypothesis implies that firms with low ROA are more likely to engage in real estate. Meanwhile, in the year the stock market surging, the propensities of firms'entry to real estate decrease.
In chapter five, we study the interactiong effect of firms'entry to real estate and housing price on the patent of the listed firms using patent data. Since the listed firms are not forced the disclosure their R&D information, the qualities of R&D information of different firms are varies. We use the patent as the measurement of innovation capacity. The selection of patent data is the difficulty of theis chapter and it is also the main contribution of the thesis. The estimation results show that the firms which have engaged in real estate are more sensitive to the change of housing price. So far, we provide and complete chain of evidence for the hypothesis that the housing bomm has negative effect on manufacturing firms' innovation.
In chapter six, we summarize the main finding of the thesis. Possible extensions of the study are also discussed.
A lot of literatures have studied the effect of housing boom on firms' investment decisions, both theoretically and empirically. Most of the studies are based on the hypothesis that housing boom increases the value of mortgage. Also, most of the studies focus on the physical investment. Little researches pay attension to the innovation. This thesis provides the evidence that the housing bomm has negative effect on firms' innovation for the first time. This thesis is an important complementary to the related literature. This is the main contribution of our study.
Although the research about the R&D of listed firms has great academic value, the qualities of data measuring the listed firms'innovation capacity is poor. The other contribution of our study is that we find a convincible method to calculate the patent number of listed firms. Patent is and important measurement for firms' innovation capacity, which is commonly used in the related studies.
There are some deficiencies and flaws in our study. For example, since data limited we can not observe the scale of the investment on real estate of the firm which has engaged in real estate. We only use the dummy variable whether the firm entry the real estate as the measurement of investment decision. Another interesting question is whether manufacturing firm would back to feed their original busisness after making profit from real estate. All these are worth further studies.
引文
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