基于指标变动幅度的企业财务预警研究
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摘要
企业的生存和发展面临着各种风险和危机因素,任何危机都有一个蕴藏、生成、演化、临近、显现的过程,具有一定的先兆性和可预测性。防范和规避财务危机,对于促进企业的健康发展具有重要的现实意义。本文架构在企业预警理论之上,以企业财务报告及其他相关经营资料为依据,通过对财务指标变动幅度的分析,运用Logistic回归分析方法建立财务预警模型,及时发现和传递危机信号,督促企业管理当局采取有效措施,最大限度地避免或减少危机的破坏作用;帮助经营者及时找出导致财务危机的根源,弥补企业现有的经营管理缺陷,防范和化解风险,避免财务危机再度发生。
Enterprise's survival and development are facing kinds of risk and crisis factors, any crisis has implication, production, evolution, approaching, appearance process, has certain omen and predictability. Prevention and avoidance of financial crises, has vital practical significance for promoting enterprise's healthy development. This article construction on enterprise forewarns theory, take enterprise financial report and related manages material as basis, through analysis of financial indicators’changing extent, utilizes Logistic regression analysis method establishment finance early warning model, discover and transfer crisis signal in time, supervise and urge business administration authority takes effective measures, maximum limit avoids or reduced crisis's destructive effect; Helps operator to promptly find out root cause of financial crisis, to make up for defects in management,avoid financial crisis from happening again.
Enterprise's survival and development are facing kinds of risk and crisis factors, any crisis has implication, production, evolution, approaching, appearance process, has certain omen and predictability. Prevention and avoidance of financial crises, has vital practical significance for promoting enterprise's healthy development. This article construction on enterprise forewarns theory, take enterprise financial report and related manages material as basis, through analysis of financial indicators’changing extent, utilizes Logistic regression analysis method establishment finance early warning model, discover and transfer crisis signal in time, supervise and urge business administration authority takes effective measures, maximum limit avoids or reduced crisis's destructive effect; Helps operator to promptly find out root cause of financial crisis, to make up for defects in management,avoid financial crisis from happening again.
引文
[1]黄德忠.企业财务风险预警研究综述[J].财会通讯(学术版),2005,(9)
[2]吴世农,黄世忠.企业破产的分析指标和预测模型[J].中国经济问题, 1986,(6)
[3]Beaver W H. Financial ratios as predictors of failure [J]. Journal of Accounting research (Supplement), 1966: 77～111
[4]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999,(4)
[5]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究,2001,(6)
[6]Edward I Altman. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy [J].Journal of Finance, 1968 , 23(4):589～609
[7]Martin D. Early warning of bank failure: a logistic regression approach [J]. Journal of banking and finance, 1977, (1): 249～276
[8]James A Ohlson. Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy [J].Journal of Accounting Research,1980,spring: 109～131
[9]Halina Frydman,Edward I.Altman,Duen-Li Kao. Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress [J].Journal of Finance,1985,40(1):269～291
[10]周首华,杨济华.论财务危机的预警分析—F分数模式[J].会计研究,1996,(8)
[11]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(3)
[12]陈晓,陈治鸿.中国上市公司的财务困境预测[J].中国会计与财务研究,2000,(9)
[13]姜秀华,孙铮.治理弱化与财务危机:一个预测模型[J].南开管理评论,2001,(5)
[14]J. Aharony, Charles P. Jones, I. Swary. An Analysis of Risk and Return Characteristics of Corporate Bankruptcy Using Capital Market Data [J].Journal of Finance,1980,35:1001～1016
[15]杨保安,季海,徐晶,温金祥.BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用[J].预测,2001,(2)
[16]伊查克·麦迪思.企业生命周期[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1997.9～15
[17]李秉成.企业财务困境研究——上市公司财务困境实证分析[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004.21～24
[18]Marc Blum. Failing Company Discriminant Analysis[J] . Journal of Accounting Research,1974,12(1):1～25
[19]胡汝银.中国上市公司成败实证研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003
[20]Altman E, Haldeman R, Narayann P. Zeta analysis - a new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations [J].Journal of Banking and Finance,1977
[21]Myers, S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing [J]. Journal of Financial and Economics,1997:147～175
[22]周首华等.现代财务理论前沿专题[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000
[23]顾小安.公司财务预警系统的构建[J].财经论丛,2000,(4)
[24]余绪缨.企业理财学[M].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社,2002
[25]Mark E Zmijewski. Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models [J]. Journal of Accounting Research, Vol1 22,1984:59～86
[26]张鸣,张艳,陈涛.企业财务预警研究前沿[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
[27]谢科范.企业生存风险[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[28]Platt H D. Platt M B,Pedersen J G. Bankruptcy discriminant with real variables [J]. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1994, 21(4):491～508
[29]宋力等.会计信息、盈余质量与财务预警[M].沈阳:东北大学出版社,2004
[30]张建平.预警转折[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
[31]Erkki KLaitinen,Teija Laitinen. Cash management behavior and failure prediction [J].Journal of Business Finance &Accounting, Vol125 Sep/Oct, 1998:893～919
[32]张晓峰,尹薇瑛.财务预警研究综述[J].财会通讯(理财版),2007,(12)
[33]张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动态视角[J].财经研究,2005,(1)
[34]李秉成.企业财务困境概念内涵的探讨[J].山西财经大学学报,2003,(12)
[35]Tim Olper,Lee Pinkowitz,Rene Stulz. The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings [J]. Journal of Financial and Economics,52,1999:2～46
[36]赵爱玲.企业财务危机的识别与分析[J].财经理论与实践,2000,(6)
[37]谷祺,刘淑莲.财务危机企业投资行为分析与对策[J].会计研究,1999,(10)
[38]Pamela K. Coats, L. Franklin Fant. A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Financial Distress [J]. The Journal of Business Forecasting.1991.Winter
[39]王克敏,姬美光.基于财务与非财务指标的亏损公司财务预警研究——以公司ST为例[J].财经研究,2006,(7)
[40]黄岩,李元旭.上市公司财务失败预测实证研究[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2000,(1)
[41]王志坚,曹扬.企业财务失败的预测模型[J].上海会计,1999,(3)
[42]吴小萍.企业失败的财务识别[J].财会通讯(综合版),2006,(7)
[43]闫哲.基于logistic模型的上市公司财务危机预测的实证研究[硕士学位论文].东北财经大学,2007
[44]吴涛.上市公司财务预警系统的研究和实证分析[硕士学位论文].华中科技大学,2006
[45]谢永堎.财务困境预警研究[硕士学位论文].厦门大学,2007
[2]吴世农,黄世忠.企业破产的分析指标和预测模型[J].中国经济问题, 1986,(6)
[3]Beaver W H. Financial ratios as predictors of failure [J]. Journal of Accounting research (Supplement), 1966: 77～111
[4]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999,(4)
[5]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究,2001,(6)
[6]Edward I Altman. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy [J].Journal of Finance, 1968 , 23(4):589～609
[7]Martin D. Early warning of bank failure: a logistic regression approach [J]. Journal of banking and finance, 1977, (1): 249～276
[8]James A Ohlson. Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy [J].Journal of Accounting Research,1980,spring: 109～131
[9]Halina Frydman,Edward I.Altman,Duen-Li Kao. Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress [J].Journal of Finance,1985,40(1):269～291
[10]周首华,杨济华.论财务危机的预警分析—F分数模式[J].会计研究,1996,(8)
[11]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(3)
[12]陈晓,陈治鸿.中国上市公司的财务困境预测[J].中国会计与财务研究,2000,(9)
[13]姜秀华,孙铮.治理弱化与财务危机:一个预测模型[J].南开管理评论,2001,(5)
[14]J. Aharony, Charles P. Jones, I. Swary. An Analysis of Risk and Return Characteristics of Corporate Bankruptcy Using Capital Market Data [J].Journal of Finance,1980,35:1001～1016
[15]杨保安,季海,徐晶,温金祥.BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用[J].预测,2001,(2)
[16]伊查克·麦迪思.企业生命周期[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1997.9～15
[17]李秉成.企业财务困境研究——上市公司财务困境实证分析[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004.21～24
[18]Marc Blum. Failing Company Discriminant Analysis[J] . Journal of Accounting Research,1974,12(1):1～25
[19]胡汝银.中国上市公司成败实证研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003
[20]Altman E, Haldeman R, Narayann P. Zeta analysis - a new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations [J].Journal of Banking and Finance,1977
[21]Myers, S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing [J]. Journal of Financial and Economics,1997:147～175
[22]周首华等.现代财务理论前沿专题[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000
[23]顾小安.公司财务预警系统的构建[J].财经论丛,2000,(4)
[24]余绪缨.企业理财学[M].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社,2002
[25]Mark E Zmijewski. Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models [J]. Journal of Accounting Research, Vol1 22,1984:59～86
[26]张鸣,张艳,陈涛.企业财务预警研究前沿[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
[27]谢科范.企业生存风险[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[28]Platt H D. Platt M B,Pedersen J G. Bankruptcy discriminant with real variables [J]. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1994, 21(4):491～508
[29]宋力等.会计信息、盈余质量与财务预警[M].沈阳:东北大学出版社,2004
[30]张建平.预警转折[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004
[31]Erkki KLaitinen,Teija Laitinen. Cash management behavior and failure prediction [J].Journal of Business Finance &Accounting, Vol125 Sep/Oct, 1998:893～919
[32]张晓峰,尹薇瑛.财务预警研究综述[J].财会通讯(理财版),2007,(12)
[33]张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动态视角[J].财经研究,2005,(1)
[34]李秉成.企业财务困境概念内涵的探讨[J].山西财经大学学报,2003,(12)
[35]Tim Olper,Lee Pinkowitz,Rene Stulz. The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings [J]. Journal of Financial and Economics,52,1999:2～46
[36]赵爱玲.企业财务危机的识别与分析[J].财经理论与实践,2000,(6)
[37]谷祺,刘淑莲.财务危机企业投资行为分析与对策[J].会计研究,1999,(10)
[38]Pamela K. Coats, L. Franklin Fant. A Neural Network Approach to Forecasting Financial Distress [J]. The Journal of Business Forecasting.1991.Winter
[39]王克敏,姬美光.基于财务与非财务指标的亏损公司财务预警研究——以公司ST为例[J].财经研究,2006,(7)
[40]黄岩,李元旭.上市公司财务失败预测实证研究[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2000,(1)
[41]王志坚,曹扬.企业财务失败的预测模型[J].上海会计,1999,(3)
[42]吴小萍.企业失败的财务识别[J].财会通讯(综合版),2006,(7)
[43]闫哲.基于logistic模型的上市公司财务危机预测的实证研究[硕士学位论文].东北财经大学,2007
[44]吴涛.上市公司财务预警系统的研究和实证分析[硕士学位论文].华中科技大学,2006
[45]谢永堎.财务困境预警研究[硕士学位论文].厦门大学,2007