城市地震次生灾害连锁演化机理及协同应急管理机制研究
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摘要
城市作为所属地区的政治、经济、文化中心,人口密集、工商业发达、生命线工程高度集中,一旦遭受地震,不仅会造成直接的巨大破坏,还会诱发多种次生灾害,其造成的损失有时甚至超过了地震造成的直接损失。因此,地震灾害演化机理研究和应急管理研究对于城市而言具有举足轻重的作用。但目前对于城市地震灾害的相关研究还存在以下缺点：一是侧重于单一次生灾害研究,对灾害间演化机理及相互关系的研究还很不足；二是即使研究涉及灾害发生、发展的规律,但都主要从定性上分析,缺乏定量分析灾害事件间的关联度。
本文在灾害系统理论、城市突发公共事件链、贝叶斯网络应用研究的基础上,结合贝叶斯网络工具箱对城市地震次灾害演化机理进行分析。首先,通过对国内外典型城市地震进行实证分析,统计分析收集到的16个震例数据作为本文研究的数据样本,确定灾害网络节点,并根据灾害节点间的因果关系建立网络结构。运用贝叶斯网络工具箱对灾害网络进行动态推理分析,得出在证据条件下,灾害事件发生的后验概率。然后,通过算例分析对上述方法进行说明和应用,证明该方法对城市地震次生灾害事件发生具有一定的预测性。接着,利用贝叶斯网络双向推理的功能,研究城市地震次生灾害演化网络的脆弱性,找出各个时刻灾害网络的薄弱环节,据此进行可能的人为干预,切断灾害发生路径。最后,在灾害事件演化机理和灾害演化网络脆弱性研究的基础上,分析了城市地震应急管理的特征,研究在城市地震次生灾害连锁演化条件下的应急管理决策目标、决策主体,并结合我国国情构建了考虑城市地震灾害连锁演化情形的城市应急管理机制,从而为我国城市应急管理体系的建立和完善提供参考。
本文研究对于城市地震应急管理工作有重要的意义,有助于城市决策者从统一的视角看待城市地震次生灾害事件。提出的基于贝叶斯网络理论的城市地震次生灾害演化网络模型在已知地震灾害情况和城市防震水平条件下,能够对震后灾害事件的发生发展进行预测,从而辅助应急救灾部门提前做好应急准备,对灾害演化网络中的薄弱环节,进行人为干预,提高救灾防灾的工作效率,进而减少地震灾害给人类社会带来的损失。
As the political, economical, and cultural center, the city is always densely populated, fully developed in industry and commerce and also has highly centralized urban lifeline engineering systems. Once an earthquake happens, various secondary disasters may be induced, which would be more destructive even than the earthquake itself. Therefore, the study of evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake disasters and emergency management mechanism plays a significant role in strengthening the urban anti-earthquake potentiality. Unfortunately, the available studies have the following shortcomings:first of all, they mainly focus on the single secondary disaster with inadequate research on the evolution mechanism and the relationship between different disasters; secondly, they are mainly based on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative analysis.
Based on the theory of hazard system, Bayesian network and the chain of urban public emergency, this research analyzes the evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake dynamically in the light of Bayesian Network toolbox. Firstly, data samples for the present research are obtained through statistical analysis on the sixteen examples which are accumulated by empirical analysis on the representative urban earthquakes at home and abroad. Secondly, networks are established based on the causalities between different disasters nodes. Thirdly, posterior probability is worked out through dynamic reasoning and analysis about the disaster nodes in the light of Bayesian network toolbox. Fourthly, a numerical study is done for the sake of the explanation and application of the previous method, of which the predictability on the secondary disasters of urban earthquake is testified and demonstrated. And then by taking advantage of the two-way inference capacity Bayesian network, the vulnerability of the urban earthquake is studied to find out the weakness of the disaster network in each time, so as to prevent disasters after the earthquake by manual intervention. Finally, based on the research on evolution mechanism of disasters and vulnerability of the network, the research examines the features of urban earthquake emergency management, studies the decision-making objective and subject under the condition of evolution of urban earthquake disaster chain, and constructs emergency management of social interaction mechanisms of Chinese characteristics, which all together provide reference for the establishment and improvement of Chinese urban emergency response system.
Above all, the present research is of great significance for the urban earthquake emergency management, and is likely to lead the urban managers to view the mechanism of the urban earthquake secondary disasters from a systematical view. The modeling method proposed in this thesis can make prediction about the evolving process of secondary disasters when prior knowledge of the earthquake disaster and the protective level of the city is available, which thus make emergency agencies well prepared for the emergency and then intervene manually in the weakness of the disaster network so as to reduce the loss of human society by earthquake.
本文在灾害系统理论、城市突发公共事件链、贝叶斯网络应用研究的基础上,结合贝叶斯网络工具箱对城市地震次灾害演化机理进行分析。首先,通过对国内外典型城市地震进行实证分析,统计分析收集到的16个震例数据作为本文研究的数据样本,确定灾害网络节点,并根据灾害节点间的因果关系建立网络结构。运用贝叶斯网络工具箱对灾害网络进行动态推理分析,得出在证据条件下,灾害事件发生的后验概率。然后,通过算例分析对上述方法进行说明和应用,证明该方法对城市地震次生灾害事件发生具有一定的预测性。接着,利用贝叶斯网络双向推理的功能,研究城市地震次生灾害演化网络的脆弱性,找出各个时刻灾害网络的薄弱环节,据此进行可能的人为干预,切断灾害发生路径。最后,在灾害事件演化机理和灾害演化网络脆弱性研究的基础上,分析了城市地震应急管理的特征,研究在城市地震次生灾害连锁演化条件下的应急管理决策目标、决策主体,并结合我国国情构建了考虑城市地震灾害连锁演化情形的城市应急管理机制,从而为我国城市应急管理体系的建立和完善提供参考。
本文研究对于城市地震应急管理工作有重要的意义,有助于城市决策者从统一的视角看待城市地震次生灾害事件。提出的基于贝叶斯网络理论的城市地震次生灾害演化网络模型在已知地震灾害情况和城市防震水平条件下,能够对震后灾害事件的发生发展进行预测,从而辅助应急救灾部门提前做好应急准备,对灾害演化网络中的薄弱环节,进行人为干预,提高救灾防灾的工作效率,进而减少地震灾害给人类社会带来的损失。
As the political, economical, and cultural center, the city is always densely populated, fully developed in industry and commerce and also has highly centralized urban lifeline engineering systems. Once an earthquake happens, various secondary disasters may be induced, which would be more destructive even than the earthquake itself. Therefore, the study of evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake disasters and emergency management mechanism plays a significant role in strengthening the urban anti-earthquake potentiality. Unfortunately, the available studies have the following shortcomings:first of all, they mainly focus on the single secondary disaster with inadequate research on the evolution mechanism and the relationship between different disasters; secondly, they are mainly based on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative analysis.
Based on the theory of hazard system, Bayesian network and the chain of urban public emergency, this research analyzes the evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake dynamically in the light of Bayesian Network toolbox. Firstly, data samples for the present research are obtained through statistical analysis on the sixteen examples which are accumulated by empirical analysis on the representative urban earthquakes at home and abroad. Secondly, networks are established based on the causalities between different disasters nodes. Thirdly, posterior probability is worked out through dynamic reasoning and analysis about the disaster nodes in the light of Bayesian network toolbox. Fourthly, a numerical study is done for the sake of the explanation and application of the previous method, of which the predictability on the secondary disasters of urban earthquake is testified and demonstrated. And then by taking advantage of the two-way inference capacity Bayesian network, the vulnerability of the urban earthquake is studied to find out the weakness of the disaster network in each time, so as to prevent disasters after the earthquake by manual intervention. Finally, based on the research on evolution mechanism of disasters and vulnerability of the network, the research examines the features of urban earthquake emergency management, studies the decision-making objective and subject under the condition of evolution of urban earthquake disaster chain, and constructs emergency management of social interaction mechanisms of Chinese characteristics, which all together provide reference for the establishment and improvement of Chinese urban emergency response system.
Above all, the present research is of great significance for the urban earthquake emergency management, and is likely to lead the urban managers to view the mechanism of the urban earthquake secondary disasters from a systematical view. The modeling method proposed in this thesis can make prediction about the evolving process of secondary disasters when prior knowledge of the earthquake disaster and the protective level of the city is available, which thus make emergency agencies well prepared for the emergency and then intervene manually in the weakness of the disaster network so as to reduce the loss of human society by earthquake.
引文
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[2]Helene Denis. Scientists and disaster management J].Disaster Prevention and Management,1995,4:2-14.
[3]Ibrahim M Shaluf, Fakllarul-razi Ahmadum, Sa'ari Mustapha. Technological disaster's criteria and models[J].Disaster Prevention and Management,2003,12(4):305-311.
[4]Turner,B.A.The organizational and interorganizational development of disasters [J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1976,21(3):378-397.
[5]Burkholder, Brent T, Toole, Michael J. Evolution of complex disasters [J]. The Lancet London,1995,346(8981):1012-1015.
[6]Ibrahim M Shaluf, Fakllarul-razi Ahmadum, AiniMat Said, Rashid Sharif, Sa'ari. Technological man-made disaster precondition phase model for major accidents [J]. Disaster Prevention and Management,2002.
[7]刘哲民.灾害演化探析[J].水土保持研究,2003(6)：64-66.
[8]祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006(5)：710-713.
[9]吴国斌.突发公共事件扩散机理研究—以三峡坝区为例[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文,2006.
[10]方志耕,杨保华,陆志鹏,刘思峰,陈哗,陈伟,姚国章.基于Bayes推理的灾害演化GERT网络模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2009(2)：102-107.
[11]刘更才,王国荣,梅名庆.城市恐震心理分析与对策[J].灾害学,1994(1)：84-88.
[12]陆建浩.台中市都市防灾系统动态模拟模式之研究[D].台湾朝阳科技大学硕士学位论文,2002.
[13]李听.供水系统地震可靠性分析[D].大连理工大学博士学位论文,2000.
[14]王志涛,田杰,苏经宇,马东辉,郭小东,王威.汶川地震建筑物震害浅析[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2008(6)：13-18.
[15]余世舟,赵振东,钟江荣.地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散数值模拟的参数分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2002(12)：150-155.
[16]陈晓敏,刘林飞,姚海波.运动毒源泄漏事故中毒区域定量预测[J].职业与健康,2008(5)：829-830.
[17]马玉宏,谢礼立.我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001(8)：56-73.
[18]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000(9)：84-90.
[19]Dilley M, Chen R S, Deichmann U,et al.Natural disaster hotspots:A global risk analysis[J].Washington DC:Hazard Management Unit,World Bank,2005:1-132.
[20]Chvatal.Tough graphs and Hamiltonian circuits [J]. Discrete Mathematics, 1973:215-228.
[21]H A Jung. On a class of posets and the corresponding comparability graphs [J] Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series B,1978(2):125-133.
[22]Erik Jenelius, Tom Petersen, Lars-Goran Mattsson. Importance and exposure in road network vnlnerability analysis [J]. Transportation Research Part A 40,2006:537-560.
[23]Pamela Murray-Tuite. Identification of vulnerable transportation infrastructure and household decision making under emergency conditions[D]. The University of Texas at Austin,2003.
[24]Husdal J. Transport network vulnerability-which terminology and metrics' should we ues[C]. NECTAR Cluster 1 Seminar, Molde, Norway,2006:12-13.
[25]Katja Berdica. An introduction to road vulnerability:what has been done, is done and should be done [J]. Transport Policy,2002(9):117-127.
[26]White G F. Natural Hazards[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1974.
[27]Cutter S L.Living with risk:The Geography of Technological Hazards[M].London: Edward Arnold,1993.
[28]Burton I, Kates R W, White G F. The environment as hazard [M].Second Edition, New York:The Guilford Press,1993.
[29]Kenneth Hewitt. Regions of risk [M].Production by Longman Singapore Publish (Pte) Ltd. Printed in Singapore,1997.
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