基于社会网络结构演化的产学研合作项目治理风险研究
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摘要
建立创新型国家是我国未来十年发展的核心战略。这决定了必须提高知识创新的效率和效益,产学研合作项目是促使上述目标实现的有效途径之一。在我国产学研合作项目中,由于产学研合作项目是跨组织的项目,各组织之间很难建立起高效的协调机制,这将导致资源无法有效协调和利用,造成产学研合作项目的失败率较高,其结果势必影响知识创新的速度和效果。上述问题已超出了项目管理的研究范畴,在这种情况下,产学研合作项目治理则是解决问题更有效的途径。因此,本文在对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行实证分析的基础上,采用仿真技术揭示项目社会网络结构演变对治理风险因素的演化规律,并以此提出管理策略和建议。这对于降低产学研合作项目治理风险,保证产学研合作项目成功具有重要意义。
本文从社会网络结构演化的视角,对产学研合作项目治理风险进行研究,主要内容分为以下三个部分：
第一部分,即论文第1章和第2章,对产学研合作项目相关研究进行回顾,通过文献评述,发现目前有关产学研合作项目治理风险的研究,忽视了产学研合作项目“嵌入”社会网络结构后,结构演变所造成的治理风险。基于以上分析,本文认为产学研合作项目是基于信任关系,由企业、高等院校或科研机构以及中介机构为核心的众多参与主体构成的社会网络,其治理风险主要来自产学研合作项目社会网络结构变化所引起的网络结构风险。因此,本文将研究问题界定为如何分析产学研合作项目社会网络结构风险。该部分还对产学研合作项目、项目治理以及社会网络分析等相关研究进行了梳理,为论文主体部分的研究提供理论支持。
第二部分,即论文的第3章,对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行实证分析。本部分从产学研合作参与方、合作过程以及合作环境三个方面,对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行了梳理,同时依据本文中产学研合作项目治理概念和已有研究成果对项目治理成功指标进行了提炼和界定,并依据上述结果进行实验设计。通过问卷调查方法和因子分析方法提取出产学研合作项目治理风险因素,并采用多元回归分析法对产学研合作项目治理风险因素与项目治理成功之间的相关性进行了检验。该部分的研究结论既是对第一部分所提出的研究问题进行的深入分析和科学论证,也是对第三部分研究内容的明确和界定,具有承上启下的作用。
第三部分,即论文的第4章、第5章和第6章,对产学研合作项目社会网络结构风险演化规律进行分析。本部分通过对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行理论分析的基础上,运用MATLAB软件仿真并分析了项目社会网络结构演变对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的影响过程和作用机理。通过对结果的分析,揭示出项目社会网络结构改变时,产学研合作项目治理风险因素的演化规律,并依据上述演化规律制定出产学研合作项目管理策略和建议,为降低产学研合作项目治理风险,保证产学研合作项目成功提供了理论支持和实践指导。
本文对产学研合作项目治理风险展开研究,关注项目社会网络结构演变对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的影响,本文采用实证方法和仿真技术分析了上述影响过程,主要的研究结论如下：
1.产学研合作项目治理风险主要来自信任机制、知识扩散过程、项目合作关系以及合作策略四个关键因素。
本文通过问卷调查方法对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行了分析,研究表明,产学研合作项目治理风险因素聚焦在信任机制、知识扩散过程、合作关系以及项目合作策略四个关键因素上；同时,本文采用多元回归分析法对信任机制因素、知识扩散过程因素、合作关系因素以及项目合作策略因素与项目治理成功之间的相关性进行了检验,从检验结果中可以看出,信任机制因素、合作关系因素和项目合作策略因素对微观治理成功、宏观治理成功以及项目治理成功产生正向影响；知识扩散过程因子对微观治理成功和项目治理成功产生正向影响,对宏观治理成功的影响较弱。从上述研究结果中可以得出,产学研合作项目治理成功不仅关注项目管理范畴,更加强调产学研合作项目治理环境的构建。
2.产学研合作项目治理风险因素中信任机制风险,随着产学研合作项目社会网络结构中个体关系属性的改变而表现出非线性的演化规律。
从仿真结果中可以得出,减少政府对企业、高校和科研单位、中介机构的直接行政干预,保持项目各参与方相对独立的运作方式,更能增进产学研合作项目中各参与主体之间的信任状态；随着高校和科研单位影响力的增强,产学研合作项目中各参与主体对政府的信任状态能够较迅速的达到稳定状态。需要特别指出的是,虽然高校和科研单位影响力较大,但其自身的信任状态并没有发生较大改变。这说明了产学研合作项目中对“研”的信任更多的来自制度信任和过程信任,知名专家或者科研机构并不能增强产学研合作项目中各参与方之间的信任水平,也不能确保产学研合作项目目标的实现,而真正能够实现项目价值的保证源于良好的项目治理环境；企业与高校和科研单位的目标差异,使得其他产学研合作项目参与个体对上述两个体的信任状态产生了分歧。这表明,在产学研合作项目中
一旦参与方之间对项目目标或价值存在认识和判断上的分歧时,很容易造成产学研合作项目中多个群体的产生,这些群体内部具有较高的信任状态,但群体间信任状态较低,随着目标差异的逐渐增大,可能导致相同价值理念群体的退出。
3.产学研合作项目参与个体间的信任、扩散意愿和影响力、以及扩散者地位对产学研合作项目治理风险中知识扩散过程因素具有显著影响。
从仿真结果中可以得出,在知识扩散过程中,产学研合作项目个体间信任、知识扩散者意愿及其影响力均与知识扩散平均速度之间具有正相关性。当产学研合作项目参与个体之间的信任程度和知识扩散者意愿越强,知识扩散者影响力越大时,越有利于促进项目参与个体间隐性知识的扩散：初始知识扩散者的位置对于知识扩散数量和速度具有较大影响。在产学研合作项目知识扩散过程中,知识扩散者越有可能成为产学研合作项目核心成员时,隐性知识被产学研合作项目参与个体接收的数量越大,同时,产学研合作项目知识扩散速度越快；当产学研合作项目知识水平达到一定规模以后,产学研合作项目知识扩散瞬时速度存在最大值,即存在产学研合作项目知识水平的最优扩散规模。随着产学研合作项目知识扩散瞬时速度达到最大值后,瞬时扩散速度开始下降,呈现出下降趋势。这表明产学研合作项目需要协同、培训等技术手段,使产学研合作项目知识水平达到一定的阀值,才能实现隐性知识的高速扩散,同时也表明,产学研合作项目的边界不利于项目外部隐性知识的吸收和利用。
4.产学研合作项目治理风险中的合作关系因素伴随着合作策略因素的改变,在不同的项目社会网络结构的复杂特征下表现出不同的动态演化规律。
在具有小世界特征的产学研合作项目社会网络中,随着网络平均节点度的不断增大,网络平均路径长度不断减少,而聚集系数却不断增加,这说明随着产学研合作项目参与个体之间合作关系数量的不断增加,产学研合作项目参与个体之间有形成内部小团体的趋势,同时,平均路径长度的降低,更有助于内部沟通和知识扩散的进行,尤其是有利于隐性知识的传播和扩散；在采取不同的博弈策略时,产学研合作项目合作关系表现出不同的变化规律,采取赢留输变策略时效率较高,在此策略下,不断增加项目参与个体之间的合作数量,可以促进合作关系比例的增加；采取以牙还牙策略时效率也较高,但在此策略下,产学研合作项目合作关系不断下降,不利于产学研合作项目合作关系的建立。
在具有无标度特征的产学研合作项目社会网络中,赢留输变策略对于促使产学研合作项目迅速达到稳定合作关系的作用效果较差,同时,产学研合作项目合作关系随着项目的实施,得到了不同程度的提高,但受到初始合作比例的影响,最终稳定的项目合作关系比值差别较大,较高的初始合作比例促使最终合作关系比值较高,相反较低的初始合作比例,最终得到的合作关系比值仍较低；采取以牙还牙策略的产学研合作项目合作关系比值呈现出迅速下降趋势。随着初始合作比例的增加,产学研合作项目合作关系比值下降的速度越快,但相对增加幅度并没有明显的提高。上述结果说明,在产学研合作项目启动阶段,项目核心利益相关方合作关系较弱时,积极采取有效的惩罚措施,能实现合作关系的快速建立,在之后随着项目规模的逐渐扩大,还应积极实施鼓励和刺激合作的管理策略,以加快产学研合作项目合作关系的建立,来保证产学研合作项目的合作效果,确保产学研合作项目目标的实现。
本文以产学研合作项目治理风险作为研究对象,认为目前对产学研合作项目风险的研究,忽视了产学研合作项目“嵌入”社会网络结构后,结构演变所造成的治理风险。为此,本文采用仿真技术模拟了上述影响过程,并依据演化规律提出了相应的管理策略和建议。主要的研究创新在于以下三个方面：
1.对产学研合作项目治理风险研究视角的拓展。
依据格兰诺维特的“嵌入性”理论,产学研合作项目需“嵌入”社会网络结构中才能实现其功能和价值。因此,产学研合作项目治理风险不仅仅存在于属性风险中,本文认为更应该从产学研合作项目关系风险视角展开研究。产学研合作项目是由项目利益相关方构成的社会网络,其治理风险是由产学研合作项目社会网络结构改变而产生的社会网络结构风险引起的,探究产学研合作项目社会网络结构演化对治理风险的影响和作用规律是本文的研究重点,也是本文依据关系风险视角对产学研合作项目治理风险研究所作出的尝试和探索。
2.对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的甄别。
产学研合作项目风险因素的研究作为产学研合作研究的核心内容之一,一直是产学研合作研究的热点。但有关产学研合作项目治理风险因素的研究却相对较少,仍处于探索阶段。但从已有的少数研究成果中不难发现,对于产学研合作项目治理的研究已形成了以统一分析过程迭代模型为主线的研究思路。依据上述思路,本文对当前亟待明晰的产学研合作项目治理风险因素问题进行了实证分析,提炼并概括出信任机制、知识扩散过程、合作关系以及项目合作策略四个治理风险关键因素,这为探究产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理提供了研究数据和基础,也是本文对产学研合作项目治理风险研究的重要成果之一。
3.对产学研合作项目社会网络结构动态演化规律的探析。
产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理一直是学者们研究的重要内容之一。由于当前研究较多的关注个体属性风险,使得目前的研究思路通常假设产学研合作关系总是处于相对稳定状态。本文认为产学研合作项目治理风险是由于产学研合作项目社会网络结构的变化而产生的。为此,本文运用仿真技术建立并模拟了产学研合作项目社会网络结构的动态演变过程,从中观察和度量了产学研合作项目治理风险的变化规律,揭示出产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理。仿真结果证明,仿真技术对于研究产学研合作项目社会网络结构的动态演化具有适用性和可行性。研究结论可以较好的揭示出产学研合作项目治理风险在项目社会网络结构演变中的动态变化规律及其作用机理。这弥补了当前仅注重对产学研合作项目治理风险作用机理静态研究的不足,为后续的相关研究提供了重要的研究思路和研究方法。
本文仅对产学研合作项目治理风险中的关系风险进行了研究,属性风险作为产学研合作项目治理风险的两类风险因素之一,其与关系风险之间存在一定程度的关联性,在后续研究中应系统的将上述两类风险作为一个有机的整体进行分析,这对于全面认识和降低产学研合作项目治理风险将起到积极的推动作用。与此同时也应看到,不同规模、行业和类型的产学研合作项目治理风险具有一定的差异性,今后的研究中,应针对上述产学研合作项目治理风险的差异性展开研究,以进一步从整体上提升我国产学研合作项目的知识创新效率和效益。
It is a core strategy of our country in the next ten years to establish an innovative country, in line with which to improve the efficiency and benefit of knowledge innovation is a must. Industry-University-Institute (IUI) cooperation project is one of the effective ways to achieve these goals. In China, as such projects are cross organizational, it is of great difficulty to establish a coordination mechanism of high efficiency among organizations involved, without which it is impossible to effectively coordinate and utilize resources. As a result, IUI cooperation projects are of high failure rate, and the speed and effect of knowledge innovation will inevitably be influenced. These problems are beyond the research range of project management. On this occasion, IUI cooperation project management is a more effective approach to solve the problem. Therefore, this thesis will figure out the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management through empirical analysis, disclose the evolution law of the social network structure of the project against management risk factors using simulation technique, and put forward the management strategy and advice accordingly, which is of great significance in reducing the management risk of a IUI cooperation project and ensuring its success.
This thesis conducts the research on the management risk of IUI cooperation project through the angle of the evolution of social network structure with its main part divided into three parts:
Part one, namely Chapter1and Chapter2, gives a retrospect of relevant researches on IUI cooperation project, analyses the limitations and shortcomings of current researches, and finds out that relevant researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project at present have ignored the management risk caused by structure evolution after the project has been embedded in social network structure. Based on these viewpoints, this thesis regards IUI cooperation project as a social network formed by numerous participants with enterprises, institutions of higher learning or scientific research institutions and their intermediary organs as its core based on trust relationship, whose management risk mainly comes from the network structural risk caused by the change of the social network structure of the project. Therefore, the thesis defines the research problem as how to analyze the social network structural risk of IUI cooperation project. This part also gives an overview of relevant researches on IUI cooperation project, project management, social network analysis and etc. to lay a theoretical support for the research in the main body of the thesis.
Part2, namely Chapter3, gives an empirical analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management. On the basis of having a retrospect of relevant research literature, this part gives an overview of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management in three aspects, namely participants, cooperative process and cooperative environment of the project, extracts and defines the success indicators of the project management on the basis of the concept and research achievements of IUI cooperation project management, and makes the design of experiment in accordance with all the result. This part extracts the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management through questionnaire survey and factor analysis, and tests the relevance between risk factors of IUI cooperation project management and success of project management adopting the analysis method of multiple regressions. The research conclusions of this part, functioning as a connecting link between the preceding and the following, give a deep analysis and scientific verification of the research questions put forward in the first part, and clarify and define the research contents of Part3.
Part3, namely Chapter4, Chapter5and Chapter6, analyzes the evolution law of social network structural risk of the IUI cooperation project. On the basis of a theoretical analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management, this part emulates and analyzes the influence process and mechanism of action of the evolution of social network structure against the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management with MATLAB. By analyzing the result, this part demonstrates the evolution law of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management when the social network structure of the project changes, and put forward the IUI cooperation project management strategy and advice based on the evolution law, laying down theoretical support and practice guidelines for reducing the management risk of the IUI cooperation project and ensuring its success.
This thesis mainly researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project focusing on the influence of the evolution of the social network structure of the project on the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management. This thesis analyzes the influence process utilizing empirical analysis and simulation technique. The main research conclusions are as follows:
1. The management risk of IUI cooperation project mainly comes from four key factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy.
This thesis has analyzed the risk factors of IUI cooperation project. The research demonstrates that the risk factors mainly focus on four key factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy. At the same time, the thesis has tested the relevance between these four factors and the success of project management through multiple regression analysis. The test result show that the four factors, except for knowledge diffusion process, have a positive influence on the success of micro management, macro management and project management, while the knowledge diffusion process also has a positive influence on the success of both micro management and project management but its influence on the success of macro management is weak. The above research results indicate that to ensure the success of IUI cooperation project management, more stress should be put on the construction of the environment of IUI cooperation project management besides the scope of project management.
2. Among the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management, the trust mechanism tend to conform with the non-linear evolution law with the change of the properties of personal relationship in the social network structure of IUI cooperation project.
The simulation result indicates that the trust state among the participants of IUI cooperation project get improved when the direct administrative intervention of the government on the enterprises, institutions of higher learning, scientific research institutions and their intermediary organs is reduced and the relatively independent operation mode of the project participants is maintained, and that with the influence of institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions enhanced, trust on the government of the project participants in the IUI cooperation project can rapidly arrive at a stable state. In particular, even though institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions have great influence, their own trust state has not changed much. This shows that the trust on research in IUI cooperation project mainly comes from institutional trust and process trust while well-known experts or scientific research institutions cannot help strengthen trust among the participants of IUI cooperation project nor ensure that the goal of the project is achieved; rather, the only guarantee that the value of the project is realized lies in a good project management environment. As enterprises and institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions hold different goals, the trust state of other participants of IUI cooperation project on them differ, which suggests that in a IUI cooperation project, once the participants hold different views towards the goal or value of the project on cognition and judgment, several groups may emerge in the project, which boast high trust state internally while the trust state between different groups is comparatively low, and with differences on goal gradually increase, groups with same values may retreat from the project.
3. Trust, intention of diffusion and influence of the participants of IUI cooperation project and the status of the diffuser have a great influence on the knowledge diffusion process in the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
The simulation result indicates that in the knowledge diffusion process, trust, intention of diffusion and influence of the participants of IUI cooperation project are in positive correlation with the mean velocity of knowledge diffusion. That is to say, when the trust among the participants of IUI cooperation project, and the intention and influence of knowledge diffusers increase, implicit knowledge diffuses more rapidly among the project participants. The status of the diffuser of initial knowledge has a great impact on the quantity and velocity of knowledge diffusion. In the knowledge diffusion process of IUI cooperation project, when the possibility for knowledge diffusers to become core members of the project is greater, the amount of implicit knowledge received by project participants is greater. At the same time, knowledge diffusion velocity of the project increases. When the knowledge level of IUI cooperation project reaches a certain scale, there exists a maximum value for the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion in the project, namely an optimal knowledge diffusion scale. With the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion in the project reaching the maximum value, the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion begins to decline in downtrend, which indicates that only with collaboration, training and other approaches can the knowledge level of IUI cooperation project reach a certain threshold value to realize high speed diffusion of implicit knowledge, and that the periphery of IUI cooperation project is to the disadvantage of the absorption and utilization of implicit knowledge outside the project.
4. The variation of the cooperative relationship factor in the management risk of IUI cooperation project with the change of the cooperative strategy under the complex features of the social network structure of different projects conforms with different dynamic evolution laws.
In the social network structure of IUI cooperation project featured WS small world, with the increasingly enlargement of degree of average network node and decrease of network'average path length, the clustering coefficient is continuously increasing. This shows that with an increasing number of cooperation among the participants of IUI cooperation project, internal cliques tend to form the participants. At the same time, the decrease of network'average path length contribute to proceeding of internal communication and knowledge diffusion, especially the spread and diffusion of tacit knowledge. The cooperation relationship of IUI cooperation project will show different changing regulations under different game strategies. If take WSLS strategy, the efficiency is high and the cooperation number of participants can be increased constantly, which could increase the proportion of cooperation relationship. Though taking TFT strategy can also achieve relevant high efficiency, it leads to opposite effects comparing with WSLS strategy.
In the social network of IUI cooperation project with BA scale-free characteristic, WSLS has a relevant bad effect on promoting the IUI cooperation project to achieve a stable cooperative relationship quickly. At the same time, the cooperation relationship of IUI cooperation project gets different degrees of improvement with the implement of the project. However, affected by the original cooperation proportion, the ratio difference of final stable project cooperation relationship is bigger. The higher original cooperation proportion leads to higher cooperation relationship ratio, while the lower causes lower ratio. Under TFT strategy, the ratio shows a rapidly decline trend. With the increase of the original cooperation proportion, the ratio of declines faster and faster, but the relative increase rate does not enhance obviously. The above results show that during the initialing phrase of IUI cooperation project, if the cooperation relationship of project stakeholders of core interests is weaker, taking active punishments can realize the establishment of cooperation relationship quickly. Later, with the gradual expanding of the project' scale, the management strategy that is encouraging and stimulating cooperation should be carried out actively in order to accelerate the building of cooperation relationship to guarantee the realization of the project'cooperative effects and goal.
This thesis mainly researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project and regards that relevant researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project at present have ignored the management risk caused by structure evolution after the project has been embedded in social network structure. Therefore, this thesis imitates the above influence process using emulation technique and puts forward the management strategy and advice accordingly on the basis of evolution law. The main research creativity is the following three aspects.
1. Extending the research angle of the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
According to embedding theory of Mark Granovetter, IUI cooperation project can realize its function and value only when it is embedded in social network structure. Therefore, the management risk of the project lies not only in attribute risk. This thesis regards that research should be conducted from the relationship risk perspective. IUI cooperation project is a social network consisted of project stakeholders. The management risk results from the social network structural risk which comes from the project'social network structural changes. Researching on the influence and effect laws of social network evolution of the project on the management risk is this thesis' key point and new exploration from the relationship risk perspective.
2. Identifying the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
Analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management is one of core research elements and also a hot point. But this kind of research is relatively few and still remains at the exploratory stage. The minority research achievements show that the management research has formed an approach making unifying analysis process iterative model the main line. According to above thinking, utilizing empirical analysis, this thesis analyzes the management risk elements which need to be cleared nowadays, and refines and summarizes four critical management risk factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy. These provide research statistics and basis for exploring management risk' mechanism of action and are also this thesis main achievement in the management risk research of the project.
3. Probing into the dynamic evolution laws of the social network structural risk of IUI cooperation project.
Mechanism of action of IUI cooperation project's management risk has always been the main research content for scholars. As most of present researches concentrate on personal property risk, present research thinking assumes that university industry cooperation is always in a relatively stable state. This thesis regards that the IUI cooperation project's management risk is result from social network structural changes of the project. Therefore, this thesis builds and imitates the dynamic evolution process of the project's social network structure using emulation technique. From this observe and measure the changing regularity of management risk and reveal the project's mechanism of action. Imitation results show that emulation technique has adaptability and feasibility in the research on dynamic evolution of social network structure. Research results reveal the dynamic changing regularity and mechanism of action of the project' management risk under the social network structural evolution. This makes up the weakness of present static research on action mechanism of management risk, providing important research thinking and approach for later relative research.
This thesis just conducts a study on relationship risk of IUI cooperation project' management risk. As one of the management risk, property risk has some relevance with relationship risk to some extent. In the successive research, these two kinds of risk will be analyzed as a whole systematically, which will play a positive role in comprehensive understanding and lower management risk of IUI cooperation project. Meanwhile, the diversity of management risk in different scales, industries and types of IUI cooperation project should be noticed. In the following studies, the research should be directed at the diversity mentioned above to further improve the efficiency and benefit of knowledge innovation on the whole by perfecting IUI cooperation project
本文从社会网络结构演化的视角,对产学研合作项目治理风险进行研究,主要内容分为以下三个部分：
第一部分,即论文第1章和第2章,对产学研合作项目相关研究进行回顾,通过文献评述,发现目前有关产学研合作项目治理风险的研究,忽视了产学研合作项目“嵌入”社会网络结构后,结构演变所造成的治理风险。基于以上分析,本文认为产学研合作项目是基于信任关系,由企业、高等院校或科研机构以及中介机构为核心的众多参与主体构成的社会网络,其治理风险主要来自产学研合作项目社会网络结构变化所引起的网络结构风险。因此,本文将研究问题界定为如何分析产学研合作项目社会网络结构风险。该部分还对产学研合作项目、项目治理以及社会网络分析等相关研究进行了梳理,为论文主体部分的研究提供理论支持。
第二部分,即论文的第3章,对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行实证分析。本部分从产学研合作参与方、合作过程以及合作环境三个方面,对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行了梳理,同时依据本文中产学研合作项目治理概念和已有研究成果对项目治理成功指标进行了提炼和界定,并依据上述结果进行实验设计。通过问卷调查方法和因子分析方法提取出产学研合作项目治理风险因素,并采用多元回归分析法对产学研合作项目治理风险因素与项目治理成功之间的相关性进行了检验。该部分的研究结论既是对第一部分所提出的研究问题进行的深入分析和科学论证,也是对第三部分研究内容的明确和界定,具有承上启下的作用。
第三部分,即论文的第4章、第5章和第6章,对产学研合作项目社会网络结构风险演化规律进行分析。本部分通过对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行理论分析的基础上,运用MATLAB软件仿真并分析了项目社会网络结构演变对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的影响过程和作用机理。通过对结果的分析,揭示出项目社会网络结构改变时,产学研合作项目治理风险因素的演化规律,并依据上述演化规律制定出产学研合作项目管理策略和建议,为降低产学研合作项目治理风险,保证产学研合作项目成功提供了理论支持和实践指导。
本文对产学研合作项目治理风险展开研究,关注项目社会网络结构演变对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的影响,本文采用实证方法和仿真技术分析了上述影响过程,主要的研究结论如下：
1.产学研合作项目治理风险主要来自信任机制、知识扩散过程、项目合作关系以及合作策略四个关键因素。
本文通过问卷调查方法对产学研合作项目治理风险因素进行了分析,研究表明,产学研合作项目治理风险因素聚焦在信任机制、知识扩散过程、合作关系以及项目合作策略四个关键因素上；同时,本文采用多元回归分析法对信任机制因素、知识扩散过程因素、合作关系因素以及项目合作策略因素与项目治理成功之间的相关性进行了检验,从检验结果中可以看出,信任机制因素、合作关系因素和项目合作策略因素对微观治理成功、宏观治理成功以及项目治理成功产生正向影响；知识扩散过程因子对微观治理成功和项目治理成功产生正向影响,对宏观治理成功的影响较弱。从上述研究结果中可以得出,产学研合作项目治理成功不仅关注项目管理范畴,更加强调产学研合作项目治理环境的构建。
2.产学研合作项目治理风险因素中信任机制风险,随着产学研合作项目社会网络结构中个体关系属性的改变而表现出非线性的演化规律。
从仿真结果中可以得出,减少政府对企业、高校和科研单位、中介机构的直接行政干预,保持项目各参与方相对独立的运作方式,更能增进产学研合作项目中各参与主体之间的信任状态；随着高校和科研单位影响力的增强,产学研合作项目中各参与主体对政府的信任状态能够较迅速的达到稳定状态。需要特别指出的是,虽然高校和科研单位影响力较大,但其自身的信任状态并没有发生较大改变。这说明了产学研合作项目中对“研”的信任更多的来自制度信任和过程信任,知名专家或者科研机构并不能增强产学研合作项目中各参与方之间的信任水平,也不能确保产学研合作项目目标的实现,而真正能够实现项目价值的保证源于良好的项目治理环境；企业与高校和科研单位的目标差异,使得其他产学研合作项目参与个体对上述两个体的信任状态产生了分歧。这表明,在产学研合作项目中
一旦参与方之间对项目目标或价值存在认识和判断上的分歧时,很容易造成产学研合作项目中多个群体的产生,这些群体内部具有较高的信任状态,但群体间信任状态较低,随着目标差异的逐渐增大,可能导致相同价值理念群体的退出。
3.产学研合作项目参与个体间的信任、扩散意愿和影响力、以及扩散者地位对产学研合作项目治理风险中知识扩散过程因素具有显著影响。
从仿真结果中可以得出,在知识扩散过程中,产学研合作项目个体间信任、知识扩散者意愿及其影响力均与知识扩散平均速度之间具有正相关性。当产学研合作项目参与个体之间的信任程度和知识扩散者意愿越强,知识扩散者影响力越大时,越有利于促进项目参与个体间隐性知识的扩散：初始知识扩散者的位置对于知识扩散数量和速度具有较大影响。在产学研合作项目知识扩散过程中,知识扩散者越有可能成为产学研合作项目核心成员时,隐性知识被产学研合作项目参与个体接收的数量越大,同时,产学研合作项目知识扩散速度越快；当产学研合作项目知识水平达到一定规模以后,产学研合作项目知识扩散瞬时速度存在最大值,即存在产学研合作项目知识水平的最优扩散规模。随着产学研合作项目知识扩散瞬时速度达到最大值后,瞬时扩散速度开始下降,呈现出下降趋势。这表明产学研合作项目需要协同、培训等技术手段,使产学研合作项目知识水平达到一定的阀值,才能实现隐性知识的高速扩散,同时也表明,产学研合作项目的边界不利于项目外部隐性知识的吸收和利用。
4.产学研合作项目治理风险中的合作关系因素伴随着合作策略因素的改变,在不同的项目社会网络结构的复杂特征下表现出不同的动态演化规律。
在具有小世界特征的产学研合作项目社会网络中,随着网络平均节点度的不断增大,网络平均路径长度不断减少,而聚集系数却不断增加,这说明随着产学研合作项目参与个体之间合作关系数量的不断增加,产学研合作项目参与个体之间有形成内部小团体的趋势,同时,平均路径长度的降低,更有助于内部沟通和知识扩散的进行,尤其是有利于隐性知识的传播和扩散；在采取不同的博弈策略时,产学研合作项目合作关系表现出不同的变化规律,采取赢留输变策略时效率较高,在此策略下,不断增加项目参与个体之间的合作数量,可以促进合作关系比例的增加；采取以牙还牙策略时效率也较高,但在此策略下,产学研合作项目合作关系不断下降,不利于产学研合作项目合作关系的建立。
在具有无标度特征的产学研合作项目社会网络中,赢留输变策略对于促使产学研合作项目迅速达到稳定合作关系的作用效果较差,同时,产学研合作项目合作关系随着项目的实施,得到了不同程度的提高,但受到初始合作比例的影响,最终稳定的项目合作关系比值差别较大,较高的初始合作比例促使最终合作关系比值较高,相反较低的初始合作比例,最终得到的合作关系比值仍较低；采取以牙还牙策略的产学研合作项目合作关系比值呈现出迅速下降趋势。随着初始合作比例的增加,产学研合作项目合作关系比值下降的速度越快,但相对增加幅度并没有明显的提高。上述结果说明,在产学研合作项目启动阶段,项目核心利益相关方合作关系较弱时,积极采取有效的惩罚措施,能实现合作关系的快速建立,在之后随着项目规模的逐渐扩大,还应积极实施鼓励和刺激合作的管理策略,以加快产学研合作项目合作关系的建立,来保证产学研合作项目的合作效果,确保产学研合作项目目标的实现。
本文以产学研合作项目治理风险作为研究对象,认为目前对产学研合作项目风险的研究,忽视了产学研合作项目“嵌入”社会网络结构后,结构演变所造成的治理风险。为此,本文采用仿真技术模拟了上述影响过程,并依据演化规律提出了相应的管理策略和建议。主要的研究创新在于以下三个方面：
1.对产学研合作项目治理风险研究视角的拓展。
依据格兰诺维特的“嵌入性”理论,产学研合作项目需“嵌入”社会网络结构中才能实现其功能和价值。因此,产学研合作项目治理风险不仅仅存在于属性风险中,本文认为更应该从产学研合作项目关系风险视角展开研究。产学研合作项目是由项目利益相关方构成的社会网络,其治理风险是由产学研合作项目社会网络结构改变而产生的社会网络结构风险引起的,探究产学研合作项目社会网络结构演化对治理风险的影响和作用规律是本文的研究重点,也是本文依据关系风险视角对产学研合作项目治理风险研究所作出的尝试和探索。
2.对产学研合作项目治理风险因素的甄别。
产学研合作项目风险因素的研究作为产学研合作研究的核心内容之一,一直是产学研合作研究的热点。但有关产学研合作项目治理风险因素的研究却相对较少,仍处于探索阶段。但从已有的少数研究成果中不难发现,对于产学研合作项目治理的研究已形成了以统一分析过程迭代模型为主线的研究思路。依据上述思路,本文对当前亟待明晰的产学研合作项目治理风险因素问题进行了实证分析,提炼并概括出信任机制、知识扩散过程、合作关系以及项目合作策略四个治理风险关键因素,这为探究产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理提供了研究数据和基础,也是本文对产学研合作项目治理风险研究的重要成果之一。
3.对产学研合作项目社会网络结构动态演化规律的探析。
产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理一直是学者们研究的重要内容之一。由于当前研究较多的关注个体属性风险,使得目前的研究思路通常假设产学研合作关系总是处于相对稳定状态。本文认为产学研合作项目治理风险是由于产学研合作项目社会网络结构的变化而产生的。为此,本文运用仿真技术建立并模拟了产学研合作项目社会网络结构的动态演变过程,从中观察和度量了产学研合作项目治理风险的变化规律,揭示出产学研合作项目治理风险的作用机理。仿真结果证明,仿真技术对于研究产学研合作项目社会网络结构的动态演化具有适用性和可行性。研究结论可以较好的揭示出产学研合作项目治理风险在项目社会网络结构演变中的动态变化规律及其作用机理。这弥补了当前仅注重对产学研合作项目治理风险作用机理静态研究的不足,为后续的相关研究提供了重要的研究思路和研究方法。
本文仅对产学研合作项目治理风险中的关系风险进行了研究,属性风险作为产学研合作项目治理风险的两类风险因素之一,其与关系风险之间存在一定程度的关联性,在后续研究中应系统的将上述两类风险作为一个有机的整体进行分析,这对于全面认识和降低产学研合作项目治理风险将起到积极的推动作用。与此同时也应看到,不同规模、行业和类型的产学研合作项目治理风险具有一定的差异性,今后的研究中,应针对上述产学研合作项目治理风险的差异性展开研究,以进一步从整体上提升我国产学研合作项目的知识创新效率和效益。
It is a core strategy of our country in the next ten years to establish an innovative country, in line with which to improve the efficiency and benefit of knowledge innovation is a must. Industry-University-Institute (IUI) cooperation project is one of the effective ways to achieve these goals. In China, as such projects are cross organizational, it is of great difficulty to establish a coordination mechanism of high efficiency among organizations involved, without which it is impossible to effectively coordinate and utilize resources. As a result, IUI cooperation projects are of high failure rate, and the speed and effect of knowledge innovation will inevitably be influenced. These problems are beyond the research range of project management. On this occasion, IUI cooperation project management is a more effective approach to solve the problem. Therefore, this thesis will figure out the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management through empirical analysis, disclose the evolution law of the social network structure of the project against management risk factors using simulation technique, and put forward the management strategy and advice accordingly, which is of great significance in reducing the management risk of a IUI cooperation project and ensuring its success.
This thesis conducts the research on the management risk of IUI cooperation project through the angle of the evolution of social network structure with its main part divided into three parts:
Part one, namely Chapter1and Chapter2, gives a retrospect of relevant researches on IUI cooperation project, analyses the limitations and shortcomings of current researches, and finds out that relevant researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project at present have ignored the management risk caused by structure evolution after the project has been embedded in social network structure. Based on these viewpoints, this thesis regards IUI cooperation project as a social network formed by numerous participants with enterprises, institutions of higher learning or scientific research institutions and their intermediary organs as its core based on trust relationship, whose management risk mainly comes from the network structural risk caused by the change of the social network structure of the project. Therefore, the thesis defines the research problem as how to analyze the social network structural risk of IUI cooperation project. This part also gives an overview of relevant researches on IUI cooperation project, project management, social network analysis and etc. to lay a theoretical support for the research in the main body of the thesis.
Part2, namely Chapter3, gives an empirical analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management. On the basis of having a retrospect of relevant research literature, this part gives an overview of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management in three aspects, namely participants, cooperative process and cooperative environment of the project, extracts and defines the success indicators of the project management on the basis of the concept and research achievements of IUI cooperation project management, and makes the design of experiment in accordance with all the result. This part extracts the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management through questionnaire survey and factor analysis, and tests the relevance between risk factors of IUI cooperation project management and success of project management adopting the analysis method of multiple regressions. The research conclusions of this part, functioning as a connecting link between the preceding and the following, give a deep analysis and scientific verification of the research questions put forward in the first part, and clarify and define the research contents of Part3.
Part3, namely Chapter4, Chapter5and Chapter6, analyzes the evolution law of social network structural risk of the IUI cooperation project. On the basis of a theoretical analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management, this part emulates and analyzes the influence process and mechanism of action of the evolution of social network structure against the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management with MATLAB. By analyzing the result, this part demonstrates the evolution law of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management when the social network structure of the project changes, and put forward the IUI cooperation project management strategy and advice based on the evolution law, laying down theoretical support and practice guidelines for reducing the management risk of the IUI cooperation project and ensuring its success.
This thesis mainly researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project focusing on the influence of the evolution of the social network structure of the project on the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management. This thesis analyzes the influence process utilizing empirical analysis and simulation technique. The main research conclusions are as follows:
1. The management risk of IUI cooperation project mainly comes from four key factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy.
This thesis has analyzed the risk factors of IUI cooperation project. The research demonstrates that the risk factors mainly focus on four key factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy. At the same time, the thesis has tested the relevance between these four factors and the success of project management through multiple regression analysis. The test result show that the four factors, except for knowledge diffusion process, have a positive influence on the success of micro management, macro management and project management, while the knowledge diffusion process also has a positive influence on the success of both micro management and project management but its influence on the success of macro management is weak. The above research results indicate that to ensure the success of IUI cooperation project management, more stress should be put on the construction of the environment of IUI cooperation project management besides the scope of project management.
2. Among the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management, the trust mechanism tend to conform with the non-linear evolution law with the change of the properties of personal relationship in the social network structure of IUI cooperation project.
The simulation result indicates that the trust state among the participants of IUI cooperation project get improved when the direct administrative intervention of the government on the enterprises, institutions of higher learning, scientific research institutions and their intermediary organs is reduced and the relatively independent operation mode of the project participants is maintained, and that with the influence of institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions enhanced, trust on the government of the project participants in the IUI cooperation project can rapidly arrive at a stable state. In particular, even though institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions have great influence, their own trust state has not changed much. This shows that the trust on research in IUI cooperation project mainly comes from institutional trust and process trust while well-known experts or scientific research institutions cannot help strengthen trust among the participants of IUI cooperation project nor ensure that the goal of the project is achieved; rather, the only guarantee that the value of the project is realized lies in a good project management environment. As enterprises and institutions of higher learning and scientific research institutions hold different goals, the trust state of other participants of IUI cooperation project on them differ, which suggests that in a IUI cooperation project, once the participants hold different views towards the goal or value of the project on cognition and judgment, several groups may emerge in the project, which boast high trust state internally while the trust state between different groups is comparatively low, and with differences on goal gradually increase, groups with same values may retreat from the project.
3. Trust, intention of diffusion and influence of the participants of IUI cooperation project and the status of the diffuser have a great influence on the knowledge diffusion process in the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
The simulation result indicates that in the knowledge diffusion process, trust, intention of diffusion and influence of the participants of IUI cooperation project are in positive correlation with the mean velocity of knowledge diffusion. That is to say, when the trust among the participants of IUI cooperation project, and the intention and influence of knowledge diffusers increase, implicit knowledge diffuses more rapidly among the project participants. The status of the diffuser of initial knowledge has a great impact on the quantity and velocity of knowledge diffusion. In the knowledge diffusion process of IUI cooperation project, when the possibility for knowledge diffusers to become core members of the project is greater, the amount of implicit knowledge received by project participants is greater. At the same time, knowledge diffusion velocity of the project increases. When the knowledge level of IUI cooperation project reaches a certain scale, there exists a maximum value for the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion in the project, namely an optimal knowledge diffusion scale. With the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion in the project reaching the maximum value, the instantaneous velocity of knowledge diffusion begins to decline in downtrend, which indicates that only with collaboration, training and other approaches can the knowledge level of IUI cooperation project reach a certain threshold value to realize high speed diffusion of implicit knowledge, and that the periphery of IUI cooperation project is to the disadvantage of the absorption and utilization of implicit knowledge outside the project.
4. The variation of the cooperative relationship factor in the management risk of IUI cooperation project with the change of the cooperative strategy under the complex features of the social network structure of different projects conforms with different dynamic evolution laws.
In the social network structure of IUI cooperation project featured WS small world, with the increasingly enlargement of degree of average network node and decrease of network'average path length, the clustering coefficient is continuously increasing. This shows that with an increasing number of cooperation among the participants of IUI cooperation project, internal cliques tend to form the participants. At the same time, the decrease of network'average path length contribute to proceeding of internal communication and knowledge diffusion, especially the spread and diffusion of tacit knowledge. The cooperation relationship of IUI cooperation project will show different changing regulations under different game strategies. If take WSLS strategy, the efficiency is high and the cooperation number of participants can be increased constantly, which could increase the proportion of cooperation relationship. Though taking TFT strategy can also achieve relevant high efficiency, it leads to opposite effects comparing with WSLS strategy.
In the social network of IUI cooperation project with BA scale-free characteristic, WSLS has a relevant bad effect on promoting the IUI cooperation project to achieve a stable cooperative relationship quickly. At the same time, the cooperation relationship of IUI cooperation project gets different degrees of improvement with the implement of the project. However, affected by the original cooperation proportion, the ratio difference of final stable project cooperation relationship is bigger. The higher original cooperation proportion leads to higher cooperation relationship ratio, while the lower causes lower ratio. Under TFT strategy, the ratio shows a rapidly decline trend. With the increase of the original cooperation proportion, the ratio of declines faster and faster, but the relative increase rate does not enhance obviously. The above results show that during the initialing phrase of IUI cooperation project, if the cooperation relationship of project stakeholders of core interests is weaker, taking active punishments can realize the establishment of cooperation relationship quickly. Later, with the gradual expanding of the project' scale, the management strategy that is encouraging and stimulating cooperation should be carried out actively in order to accelerate the building of cooperation relationship to guarantee the realization of the project'cooperative effects and goal.
This thesis mainly researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project and regards that relevant researches on the management risk of IUI cooperation project at present have ignored the management risk caused by structure evolution after the project has been embedded in social network structure. Therefore, this thesis imitates the above influence process using emulation technique and puts forward the management strategy and advice accordingly on the basis of evolution law. The main research creativity is the following three aspects.
1. Extending the research angle of the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
According to embedding theory of Mark Granovetter, IUI cooperation project can realize its function and value only when it is embedded in social network structure. Therefore, the management risk of the project lies not only in attribute risk. This thesis regards that research should be conducted from the relationship risk perspective. IUI cooperation project is a social network consisted of project stakeholders. The management risk results from the social network structural risk which comes from the project'social network structural changes. Researching on the influence and effect laws of social network evolution of the project on the management risk is this thesis' key point and new exploration from the relationship risk perspective.
2. Identifying the management risk of IUI cooperation project.
Analysis of the risk factors of IUI cooperation project management is one of core research elements and also a hot point. But this kind of research is relatively few and still remains at the exploratory stage. The minority research achievements show that the management research has formed an approach making unifying analysis process iterative model the main line. According to above thinking, utilizing empirical analysis, this thesis analyzes the management risk elements which need to be cleared nowadays, and refines and summarizes four critical management risk factors, namely trust mechanism, knowledge diffusion process, project cooperation relationship and cooperation strategy. These provide research statistics and basis for exploring management risk' mechanism of action and are also this thesis main achievement in the management risk research of the project.
3. Probing into the dynamic evolution laws of the social network structural risk of IUI cooperation project.
Mechanism of action of IUI cooperation project's management risk has always been the main research content for scholars. As most of present researches concentrate on personal property risk, present research thinking assumes that university industry cooperation is always in a relatively stable state. This thesis regards that the IUI cooperation project's management risk is result from social network structural changes of the project. Therefore, this thesis builds and imitates the dynamic evolution process of the project's social network structure using emulation technique. From this observe and measure the changing regularity of management risk and reveal the project's mechanism of action. Imitation results show that emulation technique has adaptability and feasibility in the research on dynamic evolution of social network structure. Research results reveal the dynamic changing regularity and mechanism of action of the project' management risk under the social network structural evolution. This makes up the weakness of present static research on action mechanism of management risk, providing important research thinking and approach for later relative research.
This thesis just conducts a study on relationship risk of IUI cooperation project' management risk. As one of the management risk, property risk has some relevance with relationship risk to some extent. In the successive research, these two kinds of risk will be analyzed as a whole systematically, which will play a positive role in comprehensive understanding and lower management risk of IUI cooperation project. Meanwhile, the diversity of management risk in different scales, industries and types of IUI cooperation project should be noticed. In the following studies, the research should be directed at the diversity mentioned above to further improve the efficiency and benefit of knowledge innovation on the whole by perfecting IUI cooperation project
引文
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①图中纵、横坐标仅用于表明个单元格的相对位置,且纵、横坐标的单位长度相同。以下各图的纵、横坐标意义与此相同,不再单独赘述。
①图中的横坐标表示产学研合作项目知识水平,纵坐标表示产学研合作项目知识扩散瞬时速度
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①仿真结果仅保留四位小数。
①图中数据是模拟了30次后的平均结果,6-6图相同。
①本文6.1.2.1小节已给出证明。
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①图中纵、横坐标仅用于表明个单元格的相对位置,且纵、横坐标的单位长度相同。以下各图的纵、横坐标意义与此相同,不再单独赘述。
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①仿真结果仅保留四位小数。
①图中数据是模拟了30次后的平均结果,6-6图相同。
①本文6.1.2.1小节已给出证明。
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