基于灰色关联分析法的河北省产业结构与能源消费关系研究
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摘要
人类社会的进步依靠经济的发展，而经济的发展又必须依赖能源的支撑和保障。改革开放以来，能源的使用不仅促进了经济高速增长，也带来了严重的环境污染。河北省的发展存在诸多问题，尤其是产业结构不合理、能源生产和消费结构不合理、能源利用效率低等问题。2009年河北省第一产业生产总值占河北省经济生产总值的12.81%，能源消费占了消费总量的0.22%；第二产业生产总值占河北省经济生产总值的51.98%，能源消费占了80.6%；第三产业生产总值占35.21%，能源消费占了19.18%。2009年河北省能源消费总量达到25418.79万吨标准煤，其中工业的能源消费量占能源消费总量的74.06%，1978-2009年，煤炭消费份额在85%-93%，而清洁能源天然气、水电等一直低于我省能源消费总量的2%。基于此，河北省能源消费结构及各产业间的能源分配结构都不平衡，发展低碳经济，能源结构有待优化。
本文从分析河北省产业结构现状和能源消费现状出发，以产业结构影响能源消费理论为依据，分析了河北省产业结构与能源消费现状分析，提出了河北省能源消费与产业结构调整和优化升级的问题，运用灰色关联分析法及多元线性回归模型实证分析了河北省产业结构调整对能源消费的影响，实证结果表明产业结构的调整对能源消费有影响，为产业结构的调整政策实施提供了理论依据，最后本文提出了河北省产业结构调整的政策建议。
全文共分为五章:第一章是绪论，对国内外关于产业结构与能源消费关系的研究现状进行了综述，就本文的主要研究内容进行了概括；第二章是产业结构影响能源消费的理论依据，从理论上分析了产业结构对能源消费的影响；第三章是河北省产业结构和能源的消费现状进行分析，对河北省产业结构和能源消费现状进行了分析，研究分析经济增长与能源消费的关系，三次产业及工业内部结构与能源消费的关系；第四章是运用灰色关联分析法及多元线性回归模型，实证分析产业结构调整与能源消费关系，其中包括河北省三次产业结构调整与能源消费数据分析，河北省三次产业能源消费量与能源消费总量数据分析及河北省六大高耗能行业与能源消费结构数据分析；第五章是河北省产业结构调整的政策建议，针对实证分析的结果，结合前述理论分析，提出了河北省产业结构调整的政策建议。
The progress of human society depends on the development of economy, and the developmentof economy must rely on the energy's support and security.Since the reform and opening up, theuse of energy not only promotes economic growth, but also brings serious environmental pollution.There exist many problems on the development of Hebei Province, especially the unreasonableindustrial structure, the unreasonable structure of energy production and consumption and the loweffiency of energy utilization. In2009, the GDP of primary industry accounted for12.81%of totalGDP in Hebei Province,and the energy consumption accounted for0.22%of the total consumption;the GDP of secondary industry accounted for51.98%of total GDP in Hebei Province, and theenergy consumption accounted for80.6%of the total consumption; the GDP of tertiary industryaccounted for35.21%of total GDP in Hebei Province, and the energy consumption accounted for19.18%of the total consumption. In2009, the total amount of energy consumption reached to254.1879million tons standard coal, among them, industrial energy consumption accounted for74.06%of the total energy consumption. From1978to2009, the coal consumption share is between85%and93%, however, the clean energy—gas, water and electricity have been always less than2%of the total energy consumption in our province. Based on this, the energy consumption structureand the energy distribution structure among each industry of Hebei Province are both imbalance. Sowe should develop a low carbon economy and the energy structure needs to be optimized too.
According to the theory of the industrial structure's affection on energy consumption, this paperanalyzes the present situation of the industrial structure and energy consumption in Hebei province,proposed the problem of energy consumption and the industrial structure adjustment andoptimization in Hebei province. This paper uses grey correlation analysis method and multiple linearregression model to analyse the industrial structure adjustment to the influence of the energyconsumption. The empirical results show that the adjustments of industrial structure do influence theenergy consumption, and provide theoretical basis for the policy's implementation about theadjustment of industrial structure.Finally, this paper puts forward industrial structure adjustmentpolicy suggestions on Hebei Province.
Full text is divided into five chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It reviews the domesticand foreign research situation of the relationship between industrial structure and energyconsumption, and summarizes the main research contents of this paper；The second chapter isabout the theory basis that the industrial structure affects energy consumption. It analyses thisinfluence theoretically；The third chapter analyses the present situation of the industrial structureand the energy consumption in Hebei Province. It analyzes the present situation of the industrialstructure and energy consumption,and researches the relationship between economic growth andenergy consumption,the relationship between thrice industrial、industrial internal structure andenergy consumption. The fourth chapter uses grey correlation analysis method and multiple linearregression model to analyse the relationship between adjustment of industrial structure and energyconsumption. It includes the adjustments of thrice Industrial structure and the data analysis of energyconsumption and thrice Industrial energy consumption、 total energy consumption, the six highenergy-consuming industries and energy consumption structure in Hebei Province. The fifth chapter put forwords policy suggestions on industrial structure adjustment in Hebei Province.According to the results of the empirical analysis, combined with the theoretical analysis, it putsforward some policy suggestions on industrial structure adjustment in Hebei Province.
本文从分析河北省产业结构现状和能源消费现状出发，以产业结构影响能源消费理论为依据，分析了河北省产业结构与能源消费现状分析，提出了河北省能源消费与产业结构调整和优化升级的问题，运用灰色关联分析法及多元线性回归模型实证分析了河北省产业结构调整对能源消费的影响，实证结果表明产业结构的调整对能源消费有影响，为产业结构的调整政策实施提供了理论依据，最后本文提出了河北省产业结构调整的政策建议。
全文共分为五章:第一章是绪论，对国内外关于产业结构与能源消费关系的研究现状进行了综述，就本文的主要研究内容进行了概括；第二章是产业结构影响能源消费的理论依据，从理论上分析了产业结构对能源消费的影响；第三章是河北省产业结构和能源的消费现状进行分析，对河北省产业结构和能源消费现状进行了分析，研究分析经济增长与能源消费的关系，三次产业及工业内部结构与能源消费的关系；第四章是运用灰色关联分析法及多元线性回归模型，实证分析产业结构调整与能源消费关系，其中包括河北省三次产业结构调整与能源消费数据分析，河北省三次产业能源消费量与能源消费总量数据分析及河北省六大高耗能行业与能源消费结构数据分析；第五章是河北省产业结构调整的政策建议，针对实证分析的结果，结合前述理论分析，提出了河北省产业结构调整的政策建议。
The progress of human society depends on the development of economy, and the developmentof economy must rely on the energy's support and security.Since the reform and opening up, theuse of energy not only promotes economic growth, but also brings serious environmental pollution.There exist many problems on the development of Hebei Province, especially the unreasonableindustrial structure, the unreasonable structure of energy production and consumption and the loweffiency of energy utilization. In2009, the GDP of primary industry accounted for12.81%of totalGDP in Hebei Province,and the energy consumption accounted for0.22%of the total consumption;the GDP of secondary industry accounted for51.98%of total GDP in Hebei Province, and theenergy consumption accounted for80.6%of the total consumption; the GDP of tertiary industryaccounted for35.21%of total GDP in Hebei Province, and the energy consumption accounted for19.18%of the total consumption. In2009, the total amount of energy consumption reached to254.1879million tons standard coal, among them, industrial energy consumption accounted for74.06%of the total energy consumption. From1978to2009, the coal consumption share is between85%and93%, however, the clean energy—gas, water and electricity have been always less than2%of the total energy consumption in our province. Based on this, the energy consumption structureand the energy distribution structure among each industry of Hebei Province are both imbalance. Sowe should develop a low carbon economy and the energy structure needs to be optimized too.
According to the theory of the industrial structure's affection on energy consumption, this paperanalyzes the present situation of the industrial structure and energy consumption in Hebei province,proposed the problem of energy consumption and the industrial structure adjustment andoptimization in Hebei province. This paper uses grey correlation analysis method and multiple linearregression model to analyse the industrial structure adjustment to the influence of the energyconsumption. The empirical results show that the adjustments of industrial structure do influence theenergy consumption, and provide theoretical basis for the policy's implementation about theadjustment of industrial structure.Finally, this paper puts forward industrial structure adjustmentpolicy suggestions on Hebei Province.
Full text is divided into five chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It reviews the domesticand foreign research situation of the relationship between industrial structure and energyconsumption, and summarizes the main research contents of this paper；The second chapter isabout the theory basis that the industrial structure affects energy consumption. It analyses thisinfluence theoretically；The third chapter analyses the present situation of the industrial structureand the energy consumption in Hebei Province. It analyzes the present situation of the industrialstructure and energy consumption,and researches the relationship between economic growth andenergy consumption,the relationship between thrice industrial、industrial internal structure andenergy consumption. The fourth chapter uses grey correlation analysis method and multiple linearregression model to analyse the relationship between adjustment of industrial structure and energyconsumption. It includes the adjustments of thrice Industrial structure and the data analysis of energyconsumption and thrice Industrial energy consumption、 total energy consumption, the six highenergy-consuming industries and energy consumption structure in Hebei Province. The fifth chapter put forwords policy suggestions on industrial structure adjustment in Hebei Province.According to the results of the empirical analysis, combined with the theoretical analysis, it putsforward some policy suggestions on industrial structure adjustment in Hebei Province.
引文
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[2] Griffin and Gregory. An Intercountry Translog Model of Energy SubstitutionResponses.American Economics Review, Vol.66,1976,845-857
[3] Prosser, R.D. Demand Elasticity in OECD: Dynamical Aspects. Energy EconomicsJanuary,1985,9-12
[4] Noel D.Uri. A Note On Energy Demand Estimation. International Journal of EnergyResearch,Vol.17, No.8,1993,747-758
[5] Noel D.Uri and Mohinder Gill. The Agricultural Demand For Electricity In TheUnited States.International Journal of Energy Research, Vol.19, No.2,1995,145-157
[6] Rotemberg, J.J., M.Woodford. Imperfect competition and the effects of energyprice increases on economics activity. Journal of Money, Credit&Banking,1996,(28)：65-72
[7] Finn, M.G.. Perfect competition and the effects of energy price increases oneconomics activity. Journal of Money, Credit&Banking,2000,(32):48-61
[8] Doroodian, K&R.Boyd. The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growthwith inflation in the presence of technological advances: A CGE model. EnergyPolicy,2003,(31):989-1006
[9] Chinn, M.D., M.LeBlanc, O.Coibion. The predictive content of energy futures:An update on petroleum, natural gas, heating oil and gasoline. NBER workingpaper,2005
[10]Dellinka, R., M.Hofkesb, E. van Ierlanda&H. Verbruggenb. Dynamic modeling ofpollution abatement in a CGE framework. Economic Modelling,2004(21):965-989
[11]Decanio, S.J., W.E.Watkins. Investment in energy efficiency: Do thecharacteristics of the firms matter?. Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,(80)
[12]Richard Schmalensee, Thomas M. Stoker. Household Gasonline Demand in the UnitedStates. Econometrica,1999(67):645-662
[13]魏一鸣，焦建玲，廖华．能源经济学．北京:科学出版社,2011．
[14]薛进军，赵忠秀，戴彦德．中国低碳经济发展报告(2011)．北京:社会科学文献出版社,2011．
[15]《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》．北京:科学出版社,2007．
[16]史丹，张金隆．产业结构变动对能源消费的影响．经济理论与经济管理,2003,3,30～32．
[17]刘旖芸．上海能源消费与经济发展关系研究：［博士学位论文］．上海：复旦大学，2009．
[18]蔡蓉粤．产业结构变动对能源消费影响的研究:[硕士学位论文]．长沙:中南大学，2010．
[19]中国人民大学气候变化与低碳经济研究所．中国低碳经济年度发展报告(2011)．北京:石油工业出版社,2011．
[20]苏东水．产业经济学．北京:高等教育出版社,2004．
[21]耿燕礼．河北省经济发展的能源保障问题研究:[硕士学位论文]．河北:石家庄经济学院,2008．
[22]环境和资源综合利用司．河北省能源利用现状、问题与建议．环境与资源简报,2005年第23期(总第130期)
[23]张涛．河北2010年能源缺口达70%．中国国土资源报,2007-6-12（0706120101）
[24]国家统计局．1995-2010年中国统计年鉴．中国统计出版社,1995-2010
[25]史丹．结构变动是影响我国能源消费的主要因素，中国工业经济,1999(ll)．
[26]史丹．我国能源工业与制造业关联关系的实证分析，中国工业经济，2001(6)．
[27]史丹．我国经济增长过程中能源利用效率的改进，经济研究，2002（9）．
[28]史丹．产业结构调整变动对能源消费需求的影响，经济理论与经济管理，2003(8)．
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