中国通货膨胀福利成本与铸币税问题研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，我国经济飞速发展，人民生活水平显著提高，与此同时，我国物价水平增长也非常迅速。我国目前主要是以消费者物价指数（CPI）来衡量通货膨胀率的。从1978年至2010年，消费者物价指数累计增幅为5.2倍。而且，改革开放30多年来，我国经历两次较高的通货膨胀，分别是1988年和1994年，消费者物价指数衡量的通货膨胀率分别为18.8%和24.1%。2008年我国消费物价指数达到5.85%，为近10年来最高水平。同时，以2008年4万亿救市计划为代表的积极的财政政策与宽松的货币政策，带来的新一轮物价水平上涨仍在持续。
通货膨胀历来是经济学家所关注的重点问题，通货膨胀一方面会给政府带来铸币税的收益，另一方面，会给居民带来福利的损失，所以半个多世纪以来，铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本也一直是热点的问题。但是，国外的经济学者似乎更倾向于研究高通货膨胀率的情况，对于像中国这样温和通货膨胀的国家，相关的研究相对较少。而国内的相关研究基本都是单方面研究铸币税或是通货膨胀福利成本，即使把它们结合起来的研究也基本是理论的探讨，理论与实证结合的研究还是没有的。
本文试图对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本这一热点问题进行比较系统的理论和经验研究。本文以Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）的一般均衡分析框架为基础，结合中国1978-2010年的数据，利用Hansen（1982）的GMM计量方法对模型参数进行估计，同时对铸币税收入和通货膨胀福利成本进行估算。本文讨论了Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）模型和一个简化的模型，并在简化模型的基础上将Eckstein和Leiderman采用的Cobb-Douglas效用函数改为不变替代弹性（CES）效用函数，估算铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本；估计了铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本的上限与下限；并将有关结果与Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）基于以色列数据估计结果进行了比较。考虑到政府在对公众持有的法定货币“征收”通货膨胀税的同时，通常还会对银行系统不生息的法定储备“征收”通货膨胀税，我们对模型再一次进行拓展，将银行部门纳入其中，讨论存款准备金率对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本的影响。最后对我国历年的铸币税、通货膨胀福利成本进行了分析，从而得出本文的结论。
本文的结论如下：在同等通货膨胀率水平下，我国1978-2010年间铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本均低于以色列1970-1988年间的水平。但基于CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本水平要高一些；基于Cobb-Douglas效用函数的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本的上限分别为0.0281与0.0801，基于CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本的上限分别为0.077与0.1065；基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本上限分别为0.0426与0.0655，基于拓展模型和CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本上限分别为0.0564与0.0677；根据我国的实际情况，基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas、CES效用函数能得到最大的铸币税都为0.2829；基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas、CES效用函效用函数得出的铸币税结果要低一些，张建华和张怀清（2009）铸币税结果要比本文的估计结果高一些；基于各种方法估计的通货膨胀福利成本，历年的总体趋势大体是一致的，但基于CES效用函数估计的通货膨胀福利成本整体水平要高一些，基于拓展模型和CES效用函数估计的通货膨胀福利成本整体水平要低一些；可以利用存款准备金率对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本进行权衡。
Since economic reform and opening to the outside world, Chinese economy hasacquired remarkable achievements, living standards have improved significantly. At thesame time, the price level of China also increased rapidly. In China, a major indicator ofinflation measurement is Consumer Price Index (CPI). China’s CPI has increased5.2times from1978to2010. During last30years, China has experienced two relative higherinflation periods, one in1988and one in1994, and the inflation rates (measured by CPI)were18.8%and24.1%respectively. In2008, China’s CPI increased to5.85%, which isthe highest level in recent10years. The proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policyhighlighted by the4trillion bailout plan in2008, has brought a new round of priceincreasing and the rising trend is continuing.
Inflation has always been a hot issue of concern to economists. On the one hand,governments could obtain seigniorage revenue from inflation; on the other hand, citizenssuffer from welfare losses from it. So seigniorage and welfare cost of inflation has been ahot issue for half a century. However, foreign economists seem more inclined to studythe high inflation case, and related fewer researches focus on moderate inflation countrieslike China. Scholars in China basically study seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflationseparately. Even if the very few research which combining them together are essentiallyfrom the theoretical perspective. There is no research in China studying seigniorage andthe welfare cost of inflation together from theoretical and empirical perspective. And thisis the purpose of this dissertation.
Based on the general equilibrium research framework of Eckstein and Leiderman(1992) and data of China in1978-2010, applying Hansen (1982) GMM method ofestimation, we estimate the model parameters and calculate the implied seignioragerevenue and the welfare cost of inflation. Firstly, we based on our analysis on theEckstein and Leiderman (1992) model, a simplified model, and a model replaced theCobb-Douglas utility function with a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utilityfunction: estimating the model parameters, calculating the implied seigniorage revenueand the welfare cost of inflation, estimating the upper and lower limits of seignioragerevenue and the welfare cost of inflation, and comparing our results with the results of Eckstein and Leiderman (1992) which were based on Israel data. Secondly, sincegovernments typically levy the inflation tax on non-interest-bearing required reserves ofthe banking system as well as on currency held by the public, we introduced a bankingsector into our basic theoretical models, and discuss how deposit reserve ratio influenceon the welfare cost of inflation and seigniorage revenue. Finally, we general discussedthe characteristics of seigniorage, welfare cost of inflation of China during last30years.
We have the following findings. For the same level of inflation rate, seigniorage andthe welfare cost of inflation in1978-2010in China are lower than the level of Israel in1970-1988l. However, both the level of seigniorage and the size of welfare cost ofinflation based on CES utility function are higher. The upper limit of seigniorage and thewelfare cost of inflation based on Cobb-Douglas utility function are0.0281and0.0801respectively. The upper limit of seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation based onCES utility function are0.077and0.1065respectively. The upper limit of seigniorageand the welfare cost of inflation based on Cobb-Douglas utility function with a bankingsector are0.0426and0.0655respectively. The upper limit of seigniorage and the welfarecost of inflation based on the CES utility function with a banking sector are0.0564and0.0677respectively. The maximum seigniorage is0.2829, which is based theCobb-Douglas and CES utility function with a banking sector. The results of seigniorageare lower, based on Cobb-Douglas and CES utility function with a banking sector. Theseigniorage revenue estimated by Zhang Jianhua and Zhang Huaiqing (2009) is higherthan ours. The overall trend of the welfare cost of inflation estimated in a variety of waysis generally consistent. However, the size of welfare cost of inflation based on CESutility function is higher, the size of welfare cost of inflation based on CES utilityfunction with a banking sector is lower, and it is possible to tradeoff the welfare cost ofinflation and seigniorage revenue with the deposit reserve ratio.
通货膨胀历来是经济学家所关注的重点问题，通货膨胀一方面会给政府带来铸币税的收益，另一方面，会给居民带来福利的损失，所以半个多世纪以来，铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本也一直是热点的问题。但是，国外的经济学者似乎更倾向于研究高通货膨胀率的情况，对于像中国这样温和通货膨胀的国家，相关的研究相对较少。而国内的相关研究基本都是单方面研究铸币税或是通货膨胀福利成本，即使把它们结合起来的研究也基本是理论的探讨，理论与实证结合的研究还是没有的。
本文试图对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本这一热点问题进行比较系统的理论和经验研究。本文以Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）的一般均衡分析框架为基础，结合中国1978-2010年的数据，利用Hansen（1982）的GMM计量方法对模型参数进行估计，同时对铸币税收入和通货膨胀福利成本进行估算。本文讨论了Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）模型和一个简化的模型，并在简化模型的基础上将Eckstein和Leiderman采用的Cobb-Douglas效用函数改为不变替代弹性（CES）效用函数，估算铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本；估计了铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本的上限与下限；并将有关结果与Eckstein和Leiderman（1992）基于以色列数据估计结果进行了比较。考虑到政府在对公众持有的法定货币“征收”通货膨胀税的同时，通常还会对银行系统不生息的法定储备“征收”通货膨胀税，我们对模型再一次进行拓展，将银行部门纳入其中，讨论存款准备金率对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本的影响。最后对我国历年的铸币税、通货膨胀福利成本进行了分析，从而得出本文的结论。
本文的结论如下：在同等通货膨胀率水平下，我国1978-2010年间铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本均低于以色列1970-1988年间的水平。但基于CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本水平要高一些；基于Cobb-Douglas效用函数的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本的上限分别为0.0281与0.0801，基于CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本的上限分别为0.077与0.1065；基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本上限分别为0.0426与0.0655，基于拓展模型和CES效用函数估计的铸币税和通货膨胀福利成本上限分别为0.0564与0.0677；根据我国的实际情况，基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas、CES效用函数能得到最大的铸币税都为0.2829；基于拓展模型和Cobb-Douglas、CES效用函效用函数得出的铸币税结果要低一些，张建华和张怀清（2009）铸币税结果要比本文的估计结果高一些；基于各种方法估计的通货膨胀福利成本，历年的总体趋势大体是一致的，但基于CES效用函数估计的通货膨胀福利成本整体水平要高一些，基于拓展模型和CES效用函数估计的通货膨胀福利成本整体水平要低一些；可以利用存款准备金率对铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本进行权衡。
Since economic reform and opening to the outside world, Chinese economy hasacquired remarkable achievements, living standards have improved significantly. At thesame time, the price level of China also increased rapidly. In China, a major indicator ofinflation measurement is Consumer Price Index (CPI). China’s CPI has increased5.2times from1978to2010. During last30years, China has experienced two relative higherinflation periods, one in1988and one in1994, and the inflation rates (measured by CPI)were18.8%and24.1%respectively. In2008, China’s CPI increased to5.85%, which isthe highest level in recent10years. The proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policyhighlighted by the4trillion bailout plan in2008, has brought a new round of priceincreasing and the rising trend is continuing.
Inflation has always been a hot issue of concern to economists. On the one hand,governments could obtain seigniorage revenue from inflation; on the other hand, citizenssuffer from welfare losses from it. So seigniorage and welfare cost of inflation has been ahot issue for half a century. However, foreign economists seem more inclined to studythe high inflation case, and related fewer researches focus on moderate inflation countrieslike China. Scholars in China basically study seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflationseparately. Even if the very few research which combining them together are essentiallyfrom the theoretical perspective. There is no research in China studying seigniorage andthe welfare cost of inflation together from theoretical and empirical perspective. And thisis the purpose of this dissertation.
Based on the general equilibrium research framework of Eckstein and Leiderman(1992) and data of China in1978-2010, applying Hansen (1982) GMM method ofestimation, we estimate the model parameters and calculate the implied seignioragerevenue and the welfare cost of inflation. Firstly, we based on our analysis on theEckstein and Leiderman (1992) model, a simplified model, and a model replaced theCobb-Douglas utility function with a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utilityfunction: estimating the model parameters, calculating the implied seigniorage revenueand the welfare cost of inflation, estimating the upper and lower limits of seignioragerevenue and the welfare cost of inflation, and comparing our results with the results of Eckstein and Leiderman (1992) which were based on Israel data. Secondly, sincegovernments typically levy the inflation tax on non-interest-bearing required reserves ofthe banking system as well as on currency held by the public, we introduced a bankingsector into our basic theoretical models, and discuss how deposit reserve ratio influenceon the welfare cost of inflation and seigniorage revenue. Finally, we general discussedthe characteristics of seigniorage, welfare cost of inflation of China during last30years.
We have the following findings. For the same level of inflation rate, seigniorage andthe welfare cost of inflation in1978-2010in China are lower than the level of Israel in1970-1988l. However, both the level of seigniorage and the size of welfare cost ofinflation based on CES utility function are higher. The upper limit of seigniorage and thewelfare cost of inflation based on Cobb-Douglas utility function are0.0281and0.0801respectively. The upper limit of seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation based onCES utility function are0.077and0.1065respectively. The upper limit of seigniorageand the welfare cost of inflation based on Cobb-Douglas utility function with a bankingsector are0.0426and0.0655respectively. The upper limit of seigniorage and the welfarecost of inflation based on the CES utility function with a banking sector are0.0564and0.0677respectively. The maximum seigniorage is0.2829, which is based theCobb-Douglas and CES utility function with a banking sector. The results of seigniorageare lower, based on Cobb-Douglas and CES utility function with a banking sector. Theseigniorage revenue estimated by Zhang Jianhua and Zhang Huaiqing (2009) is higherthan ours. The overall trend of the welfare cost of inflation estimated in a variety of waysis generally consistent. However, the size of welfare cost of inflation based on CESutility function is higher, the size of welfare cost of inflation based on CES utilityfunction with a banking sector is lower, and it is possible to tradeoff the welfare cost ofinflation and seigniorage revenue with the deposit reserve ratio.
引文
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