低碳经济背景下的碳博弈问题研究
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摘要
生态环境日益恶化、全球气候变暖严重威胁到了人类的生存与发展,从而产生了低碳经济的概念,从科学发展观的角度来讲,低碳经济是一种崭新的经济发展方式和能源消费方式,它将会带来人类生产、生活的全方面变革,是人类文明转向生态文明与生态经济的关键;从经济效率的角度来讲,低碳经济强调能源的高效利用,提高可再生能源的利用比率,它是一种以低能耗、低排放、低污染为基础的经济模式。然而,发展低碳经济无疑是一个任重道远,且曲折艰难的过程,其中如何摆脱“低碳陷阱”,实现我国自身经济的健康、可持续发展,维护我国的国家利益,不仅仅依靠我国自身的发展,也依靠于中国积极的与发达国家碳博弈。
“碳博弈”意味着在国际气候变化谈判中,各个国家(博弈者)根据自己所掌握的信息,以及策略集合,做出有利于自己利益的行动策略,每个国家都出于对国际生态环境的共同知识,通过对其他博弈者的分析与研究自身的局势,采取的相应战略,因此中国应当为这场博弈斗争做好全面的准备。我国是发展中的大国,更是负责任的大国。我国重视经济的发展,但也重视我们赖以生存的生态环境,我国参与国际碳博弈不仅仅是为人类的生存和发展负责、为发展中国家的发展权益负责,同样是为了我国的国家利益负责。国际间的碳博弈集中体现于:碳排放空间设定与排放权的博弈、低碳技术与资金引进博弈、以及国际碳交易博弈之中,因此系统的研究国际碳博弈中的各种博弈关系,各种博弈目标与均衡结果,对于我国参与国际碳博弈有着重要的理论指导意义和实践价值。与此同时,发展低碳经济绝不仅仅是国际间碳博弈的结果,也需要我国自身的发展与努力,即我国发展低碳经济不仅仅要处理好国际间的碳博弈,更要解决好国内的诸多方面的博弈关系,在国内,我国同样面临着诸如产业结构升级、能源结构调整、法律、法规完善等多方面的重大战略选择。
With the increasing risk happened to the environmental resources of the global system and more serious problem of global warming, ecological resources and climate resources have threaten to the survival and development of human being. Climate change implies that the environment we depend on for survival, living, development and entertainment has changed. Human-induced climate change is caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) that have accumulated in the atmosphere mainly over the past 100 years. Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and its properties. The problems caused by human activities will bring about increasing negative effects to people's health, living and production. With the intensification of global warming, people have gradually realized the great impact of global warming on ecosystems and the sustainability of human society, and began to make the“Mitigation”policy to reduce greenhouse gases emissions and avoid the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world– access to water, food production, health, and the environment. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response.
Under this background, the concept of low carbon economics has caused an increasing concern all around the world. From the perspective of the scientific concept of development, the development of low carbon economy could bring about new pattern of social-economic development and pattern of energy consumption, and it means the great changes in manufacture and living fields of human being society. From the perspective of economic efficiency, low carbon economics could pay more attention to energy using efficiency, and is more eager about the development and utilization of renewable energy; it will be a new economic model as the prominent characteristic of "low energy consumption", "low carbon emission", and "low pollution". China has undergone an earthshaking change since reform and open policy. Although China's GDP has leaped into the front ranks of the world and the economic is growing by leaps and bounds, the growth model has never transformed, is still in extensive mode of huge energy consumption and serious damage to the environment. China also maintains one of the highest economic growth rates in the world in the process of global economic development. However, this kind of extensive growth mode is characterized by high capital investment, high resource consumption, high pollution emission and low output efficiency. Fortunately, Chinese government has realized the gravity of the problem we had and situation we faced, and realized that developing low carbon economy would be also a precious historical opportunity for China to encounter the contradiction between environment and development in the initial stage of economic development. No doubt, however, developing China’s low carbon economy is before us a heavy responsibility and a long way to go. We still have to face lots of serious problems, avoiding the“low carbon trap”and constructing resource-saving, environment-friendly society not only depends on the economic development which redoubles our own efforts, but also depends on the outcome of international carbon game.
In recent years, we have witnessed global warming, desertification, sandstorm and extinction of rare species around the world, under the constraint of more serious circumstance, developing low carbon economy is a useful way to resolve the contradiction between the dramatic environment change and developing economy. The Carbon Game is active way to explain the greenhouse effect and human contribution to global climate change. In the negotiation of international climate change conference, each country (player) has his own information and strategy set. According to the common knowledge of global environmental problem and their own national self-interest, they will choose their strategy and act accordingly. Therefore, China has to make good preparations for international carbon game. China is the largest developing country in the world, and China also a maintainer and builder of the international system, we should not only pay more attention to the economic development, but also hope that we can make more contributions on the protection of our ecological environment which human being depend on. So China has to take part in the international carbon game, we will not only fight for the survival and development of human being, fight for the rights of developing country developing country, but also serve the national interest of ourselves. International carbon game has a variety of contents, including the game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right, the game of low carbon technological and capital introduction, and the game of international carbon emission trading. Therefore, the systematic research on the relation among different countries, analyzing the aims and equilibrium outcome of the international carbon game, will be regarded as an important theory meaning and practice value direction, when we participate in the game. What’s more, developing low carbon economy also needs China’s own efforts. That’s means that developing China’s low carbon economy not only requires us to participate in international carbon game actively, but only needs us to deal with the relationship among the various aspects of domestic problem, such as upgrading industrial structure successfully, adjusting energy consumption structure, enacting and improving rules and regulations and so on.
The thesis consists of eight parts, including seven chapters and the conclusion part:
Chapter one introduces the research background and its significance, following by the introduction of related research. And then, this chapter will argue the basic outline of the thesis and the basic views.
Chapter two introduces the related concepts and theories about low carbon economics. From analyzing the views of Marxism as a begining; the thesis demonstrates the related theories, including the theory of externality, welfare economics, ecological economics and the theory of sustainable development and so on. By rethinking on the past theories, the thesis aim to achieve deeply understanding of“low carbon economy”. Secondly, we will introduce the concept of“low carbon economy”and its connotation, and then, the thesis will analyze the tendency of developing low carbon economy systematically.
Chapter three: firstly, by introducing the concept of“Carbon Game”, the thesis points out the significance on china participating in the international carbon game, and analyze the basic conditions; Secondly, it comes to show the different interest groups in international carbon game and their divergence of views, by reviewing the history of international negotiations on climate change, we will conclude the four stages of international carbon game. Finally, the thesis emphasizes China’s standpoint, which means China will fight for the right of survival and development of mankind, for the national interest of developing countries, and for China’s own national interest. Further, we will study on the China’s objective, and point out that developing China’s low carbon economy not only depends on the outcome of international carbon game, but also need to deal with the various relationships among domestic markets which redouble our own efforts.
Chapter four will research on the game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right. In the beginning, the thesis will analyze the setting principle of carbon emission spaces and the emission right, and then we will focus on how to safeguard our national interests, and our standpoint in the international carbon game. The thesis argues that international negotiations on climate change should be established on the basis of equality, we should insist on our principle. In the end, the thesis will build up signaling game model on the international game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right. By analyzing the different equilibrium outcome among various conditions, we will put forward some suggestions on China’s participation in the international carbon game.
Chapter five will focus on the game of and capital introduction. By rethinking the concept of“low carbon technology”, the thesis will analyze the status of China and developed countries, and point out the difficulties which we faced and the problem which need prompt solution. The following part of this chapter will be the evolutionary game analysis on the game of and capital introduction. Based on the research on the relationship among different countries and the predicament we faced, by analyzing the strategies interactions and equilibrium between developed countries and developing countries, this paper should like to emphasize our strategy by using the experience of other countries for reference
Chapter six describes the theoretical basis on the international emission trading mechanism. International emission trading is an effective way to inhibit global warming, it established after the“Kyoto Protocol”coming into effect which perfomed as the trading is the cooperation mechanism around the world to mitigate carbon dioxide. Since China has become the largest country which emitted the most carbon dioxide in the world, China would play a more important role in the international emission trading. By analyzing the status of the international emission trading, the thesis explores the mechanisms for improving the international emission trading. Meanwhile, we will also discuss the pressures and challenges of China’s participation in the international emission trading, and our strategies.
Chapter seven will systematically analyze on the game relationship among domestic markets during the period when China’s developing low carbon economy. No doubt, constructing resource-saving, environment-friendly society not only depends on the outcome of international carbon game which we participated in, but also depends on the economic development which redoubles our own efforts. In the domestic market, we still have to face lots of important strategical choices, and have to deal with various game relationships, including upgrading industrial structure, optimizing the energy structure and improving and perfecting the legal and institutional system and so on. Base on analyzing different player’s actions and strategical choices, the thesis will portray the game process of them, and then try to find a good way which can promote good interaction between government and enterprises, and improve efficiency.
Final part concludes the whole thesis. By summarizing the game analysis above, we appeal to the public that we have no alternative but to attach great importance to low carbon economy, especially we should pay more attention on the international carbon game. With the increasing risk happened to the environmental resources of the global system and more serious problem of global warming, developing low carbon economy should not only take the environmentally friendship as the main objective, but also take good care of the carrying and self-recovery capabilities of the environment and follow a sustainable framework. The less mitigation we do now, the greater the difficulty of continuing to adapt in future. In this context, the right of carbon dioxide emission means the right of developing our own economy. No doubt, with the development of low carbon economy all around the world, more countries will consider their own national interests, and the international carbon game will be more and more intense.
“碳博弈”意味着在国际气候变化谈判中,各个国家(博弈者)根据自己所掌握的信息,以及策略集合,做出有利于自己利益的行动策略,每个国家都出于对国际生态环境的共同知识,通过对其他博弈者的分析与研究自身的局势,采取的相应战略,因此中国应当为这场博弈斗争做好全面的准备。我国是发展中的大国,更是负责任的大国。我国重视经济的发展,但也重视我们赖以生存的生态环境,我国参与国际碳博弈不仅仅是为人类的生存和发展负责、为发展中国家的发展权益负责,同样是为了我国的国家利益负责。国际间的碳博弈集中体现于:碳排放空间设定与排放权的博弈、低碳技术与资金引进博弈、以及国际碳交易博弈之中,因此系统的研究国际碳博弈中的各种博弈关系,各种博弈目标与均衡结果,对于我国参与国际碳博弈有着重要的理论指导意义和实践价值。与此同时,发展低碳经济绝不仅仅是国际间碳博弈的结果,也需要我国自身的发展与努力,即我国发展低碳经济不仅仅要处理好国际间的碳博弈,更要解决好国内的诸多方面的博弈关系,在国内,我国同样面临着诸如产业结构升级、能源结构调整、法律、法规完善等多方面的重大战略选择。
With the increasing risk happened to the environmental resources of the global system and more serious problem of global warming, ecological resources and climate resources have threaten to the survival and development of human being. Climate change implies that the environment we depend on for survival, living, development and entertainment has changed. Human-induced climate change is caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) that have accumulated in the atmosphere mainly over the past 100 years. Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and its properties. The problems caused by human activities will bring about increasing negative effects to people's health, living and production. With the intensification of global warming, people have gradually realized the great impact of global warming on ecosystems and the sustainability of human society, and began to make the“Mitigation”policy to reduce greenhouse gases emissions and avoid the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world– access to water, food production, health, and the environment. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response.
Under this background, the concept of low carbon economics has caused an increasing concern all around the world. From the perspective of the scientific concept of development, the development of low carbon economy could bring about new pattern of social-economic development and pattern of energy consumption, and it means the great changes in manufacture and living fields of human being society. From the perspective of economic efficiency, low carbon economics could pay more attention to energy using efficiency, and is more eager about the development and utilization of renewable energy; it will be a new economic model as the prominent characteristic of "low energy consumption", "low carbon emission", and "low pollution". China has undergone an earthshaking change since reform and open policy. Although China's GDP has leaped into the front ranks of the world and the economic is growing by leaps and bounds, the growth model has never transformed, is still in extensive mode of huge energy consumption and serious damage to the environment. China also maintains one of the highest economic growth rates in the world in the process of global economic development. However, this kind of extensive growth mode is characterized by high capital investment, high resource consumption, high pollution emission and low output efficiency. Fortunately, Chinese government has realized the gravity of the problem we had and situation we faced, and realized that developing low carbon economy would be also a precious historical opportunity for China to encounter the contradiction between environment and development in the initial stage of economic development. No doubt, however, developing China’s low carbon economy is before us a heavy responsibility and a long way to go. We still have to face lots of serious problems, avoiding the“low carbon trap”and constructing resource-saving, environment-friendly society not only depends on the economic development which redoubles our own efforts, but also depends on the outcome of international carbon game.
In recent years, we have witnessed global warming, desertification, sandstorm and extinction of rare species around the world, under the constraint of more serious circumstance, developing low carbon economy is a useful way to resolve the contradiction between the dramatic environment change and developing economy. The Carbon Game is active way to explain the greenhouse effect and human contribution to global climate change. In the negotiation of international climate change conference, each country (player) has his own information and strategy set. According to the common knowledge of global environmental problem and their own national self-interest, they will choose their strategy and act accordingly. Therefore, China has to make good preparations for international carbon game. China is the largest developing country in the world, and China also a maintainer and builder of the international system, we should not only pay more attention to the economic development, but also hope that we can make more contributions on the protection of our ecological environment which human being depend on. So China has to take part in the international carbon game, we will not only fight for the survival and development of human being, fight for the rights of developing country developing country, but also serve the national interest of ourselves. International carbon game has a variety of contents, including the game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right, the game of low carbon technological and capital introduction, and the game of international carbon emission trading. Therefore, the systematic research on the relation among different countries, analyzing the aims and equilibrium outcome of the international carbon game, will be regarded as an important theory meaning and practice value direction, when we participate in the game. What’s more, developing low carbon economy also needs China’s own efforts. That’s means that developing China’s low carbon economy not only requires us to participate in international carbon game actively, but only needs us to deal with the relationship among the various aspects of domestic problem, such as upgrading industrial structure successfully, adjusting energy consumption structure, enacting and improving rules and regulations and so on.
The thesis consists of eight parts, including seven chapters and the conclusion part:
Chapter one introduces the research background and its significance, following by the introduction of related research. And then, this chapter will argue the basic outline of the thesis and the basic views.
Chapter two introduces the related concepts and theories about low carbon economics. From analyzing the views of Marxism as a begining; the thesis demonstrates the related theories, including the theory of externality, welfare economics, ecological economics and the theory of sustainable development and so on. By rethinking on the past theories, the thesis aim to achieve deeply understanding of“low carbon economy”. Secondly, we will introduce the concept of“low carbon economy”and its connotation, and then, the thesis will analyze the tendency of developing low carbon economy systematically.
Chapter three: firstly, by introducing the concept of“Carbon Game”, the thesis points out the significance on china participating in the international carbon game, and analyze the basic conditions; Secondly, it comes to show the different interest groups in international carbon game and their divergence of views, by reviewing the history of international negotiations on climate change, we will conclude the four stages of international carbon game. Finally, the thesis emphasizes China’s standpoint, which means China will fight for the right of survival and development of mankind, for the national interest of developing countries, and for China’s own national interest. Further, we will study on the China’s objective, and point out that developing China’s low carbon economy not only depends on the outcome of international carbon game, but also need to deal with the various relationships among domestic markets which redouble our own efforts.
Chapter four will research on the game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right. In the beginning, the thesis will analyze the setting principle of carbon emission spaces and the emission right, and then we will focus on how to safeguard our national interests, and our standpoint in the international carbon game. The thesis argues that international negotiations on climate change should be established on the basis of equality, we should insist on our principle. In the end, the thesis will build up signaling game model on the international game of carbon emission spaces and the emission right. By analyzing the different equilibrium outcome among various conditions, we will put forward some suggestions on China’s participation in the international carbon game.
Chapter five will focus on the game of and capital introduction. By rethinking the concept of“low carbon technology”, the thesis will analyze the status of China and developed countries, and point out the difficulties which we faced and the problem which need prompt solution. The following part of this chapter will be the evolutionary game analysis on the game of and capital introduction. Based on the research on the relationship among different countries and the predicament we faced, by analyzing the strategies interactions and equilibrium between developed countries and developing countries, this paper should like to emphasize our strategy by using the experience of other countries for reference
Chapter six describes the theoretical basis on the international emission trading mechanism. International emission trading is an effective way to inhibit global warming, it established after the“Kyoto Protocol”coming into effect which perfomed as the trading is the cooperation mechanism around the world to mitigate carbon dioxide. Since China has become the largest country which emitted the most carbon dioxide in the world, China would play a more important role in the international emission trading. By analyzing the status of the international emission trading, the thesis explores the mechanisms for improving the international emission trading. Meanwhile, we will also discuss the pressures and challenges of China’s participation in the international emission trading, and our strategies.
Chapter seven will systematically analyze on the game relationship among domestic markets during the period when China’s developing low carbon economy. No doubt, constructing resource-saving, environment-friendly society not only depends on the outcome of international carbon game which we participated in, but also depends on the economic development which redoubles our own efforts. In the domestic market, we still have to face lots of important strategical choices, and have to deal with various game relationships, including upgrading industrial structure, optimizing the energy structure and improving and perfecting the legal and institutional system and so on. Base on analyzing different player’s actions and strategical choices, the thesis will portray the game process of them, and then try to find a good way which can promote good interaction between government and enterprises, and improve efficiency.
Final part concludes the whole thesis. By summarizing the game analysis above, we appeal to the public that we have no alternative but to attach great importance to low carbon economy, especially we should pay more attention on the international carbon game. With the increasing risk happened to the environmental resources of the global system and more serious problem of global warming, developing low carbon economy should not only take the environmentally friendship as the main objective, but also take good care of the carrying and self-recovery capabilities of the environment and follow a sustainable framework. The less mitigation we do now, the greater the difficulty of continuing to adapt in future. In this context, the right of carbon dioxide emission means the right of developing our own economy. No doubt, with the development of low carbon economy all around the world, more countries will consider their own national interests, and the international carbon game will be more and more intense.
引文
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②马克思恩格斯全集:20卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1971:38.
①马克思恩格斯全集:23卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1972:202.
②马克思恩格斯选集:第1卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1995:344.
③马克思.资本论:第1卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1972:208.
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⑥马克思恩格斯选集:第3卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1972:517.
①马克思恩格斯全集:第31卷[M].人民出版社,1975:251.
②马克思恩格斯选集:第3卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1972:289.
③马克思恩格斯选集:第3卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1972:553.
④马克思.致恩格斯(1868年3月25日) [C] .马克思恩格斯选集:第32卷.北京:人民出版社,1972.
⑤马克思.资本论:第3卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1975:926—927.
⑥马克思.资本论:第3卷[M] .北京:人民出版社,1975:118.
①斯蒂格利茨.经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1997:492.
②平狄克、鲁宾费尔德.微观经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社(第四版),2000:581.
①2008年,由于金融危机对实体经济的影响日益明显,我国国内煤炭价格从最高点下跌了25%至30%。
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