江苏沿海地区电信业经济适应性评价及策略研究
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摘要
江苏省作为经济大省和电信大省,如何在国家沿海开发战略的大背景下,使沿海地区电信业的发展与经济发展之间取得良好的互动关系是一个需要探讨的问题。本文界定江苏沿海地区电信业与经济发展之间的相互关系,并在此基础上建立了电信业的经济适应性评价指标体系,分析了江苏沿海地区电信业发展的现状与国民经济之间的适应性。
本文首先对国内外电信业与区域经济关系的研究进行了综述,然后分析了江苏沿海地区电信业及国民经济的发展概况。相关性研究中使用了1995-2009年江苏沿海地区电信业与GDP的时间序列数据进行了计量分析,在协整分析的基础上建立了向量误差修正模型探讨了电信业与区域经济的Granger因果关系,并且使用脉冲响应函数及方差分解进一步研究了电信业与国民经济之间关系。在相关性研究的基础上,本文建立了适应性评价指标体系,从协调发展、潜在均衡和资源配置效率三个方面进行了评价。接下来使用2009年江苏13个地市的数据,使用熵权法分析了协调发展指数,使用DEA模型分析了沿海地区潜在均衡指数和资源配置效率指数。最后进行了原因分析,提出了相应的策略。
江苏沿海地区电信业对国民经济的推动作用目前不明显,但是长期起着较大的推动作用。由于江苏沿海地区经济发展水平较低,国民经济对电信业的拉动作用不是很显著。江苏沿海地区电信业与区域经济协调发展程度较低,但是潜在均衡指数和资源配置效率指数都很高,说明该地区电信业供需匹配,资源配置效率较高。究其原因可以发现,2009年沿海开发给江苏沿海地区带来了新的发展机遇,但是短时间内电信业与国民经济之间的协调发展局面并没有形成。
Under the background of the National Coastal Development Strategy, to Jiangsu, a major province of economy and telecommunications, there exists an issue that how conduct the good interactive relation between the development of economy and the telecommunications industry in coastal area.This article studied the relationship between the telecommunications industry and economic development of the coastal area in Jiangsu province. And base on it, the Adaptability Evaluation Index System of telecommunications industry has been established, with which this article analyzed the adaptability of the current development of telecommunications industry and the regional economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province.
This article has made a summary of the studies about the relationship between telecommunications industry and regional economy first. And then, it analyzed the development situation of telecommunications industry and regional economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province. In the correlation research, the time series data of the telecommunications industry and GDP of the coastal area in Jiangsu province was used to make quantitative analysis. On the basis of the co-integration analysis, the vector error correction model was established to study the causality between the telecommunications industry and regional economy. And the impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to make further study of the telecommunications industry and regional economy. On the basis of the correlation research, in this article, Adaptability Evaluation Index System was established to evaluate the adaptability from three aspects of coordinated development, potential balance and resources allocation efficient. Then the data of Jiangsu’s 13 cities in 2009 and the multi-index comprehensive evaluation were used to analyze coordinated development index, and DEA model was used to analyze the potential balance index and resources allocation efficient index of the coastal area. In the end, this article made the analysis of causes and presented corresponding strategies.
At present, the telecommunications industry of the coastal area in Jiangsu has not promoted the regional economy greatly, but in the long run, it will make a big promotion. Because the level of economic development in the coastal area in Jiangsu is lower, the regional economy has not promoted the telecommunication industry greatly. The coordinated development index of the telecommunications industry and the economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province is lower, however, the potential balance index and the resources allocation efficient index are high, which indicates that supply and demand matches well and the resources allocation efficiency is high in the telecommunications industry of this region. The reason is that the coastal development bought new development opportunities to the coastal area in Jiangsu in 2009, but the situation of coordinated development of the telecommunication industry and regional economy hasn’t formed in a short period.
本文首先对国内外电信业与区域经济关系的研究进行了综述,然后分析了江苏沿海地区电信业及国民经济的发展概况。相关性研究中使用了1995-2009年江苏沿海地区电信业与GDP的时间序列数据进行了计量分析,在协整分析的基础上建立了向量误差修正模型探讨了电信业与区域经济的Granger因果关系,并且使用脉冲响应函数及方差分解进一步研究了电信业与国民经济之间关系。在相关性研究的基础上,本文建立了适应性评价指标体系,从协调发展、潜在均衡和资源配置效率三个方面进行了评价。接下来使用2009年江苏13个地市的数据,使用熵权法分析了协调发展指数,使用DEA模型分析了沿海地区潜在均衡指数和资源配置效率指数。最后进行了原因分析,提出了相应的策略。
江苏沿海地区电信业对国民经济的推动作用目前不明显,但是长期起着较大的推动作用。由于江苏沿海地区经济发展水平较低,国民经济对电信业的拉动作用不是很显著。江苏沿海地区电信业与区域经济协调发展程度较低,但是潜在均衡指数和资源配置效率指数都很高,说明该地区电信业供需匹配,资源配置效率较高。究其原因可以发现,2009年沿海开发给江苏沿海地区带来了新的发展机遇,但是短时间内电信业与国民经济之间的协调发展局面并没有形成。
Under the background of the National Coastal Development Strategy, to Jiangsu, a major province of economy and telecommunications, there exists an issue that how conduct the good interactive relation between the development of economy and the telecommunications industry in coastal area.This article studied the relationship between the telecommunications industry and economic development of the coastal area in Jiangsu province. And base on it, the Adaptability Evaluation Index System of telecommunications industry has been established, with which this article analyzed the adaptability of the current development of telecommunications industry and the regional economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province.
This article has made a summary of the studies about the relationship between telecommunications industry and regional economy first. And then, it analyzed the development situation of telecommunications industry and regional economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province. In the correlation research, the time series data of the telecommunications industry and GDP of the coastal area in Jiangsu province was used to make quantitative analysis. On the basis of the co-integration analysis, the vector error correction model was established to study the causality between the telecommunications industry and regional economy. And the impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to make further study of the telecommunications industry and regional economy. On the basis of the correlation research, in this article, Adaptability Evaluation Index System was established to evaluate the adaptability from three aspects of coordinated development, potential balance and resources allocation efficient. Then the data of Jiangsu’s 13 cities in 2009 and the multi-index comprehensive evaluation were used to analyze coordinated development index, and DEA model was used to analyze the potential balance index and resources allocation efficient index of the coastal area. In the end, this article made the analysis of causes and presented corresponding strategies.
At present, the telecommunications industry of the coastal area in Jiangsu has not promoted the regional economy greatly, but in the long run, it will make a big promotion. Because the level of economic development in the coastal area in Jiangsu is lower, the regional economy has not promoted the telecommunication industry greatly. The coordinated development index of the telecommunications industry and the economy of the coastal area in Jiangsu province is lower, however, the potential balance index and the resources allocation efficient index are high, which indicates that supply and demand matches well and the resources allocation efficiency is high in the telecommunications industry of this region. The reason is that the coastal development bought new development opportunities to the coastal area in Jiangsu in 2009, but the situation of coordinated development of the telecommunication industry and regional economy hasn’t formed in a short period.
引文
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