北太平洋温带气旋统计分析研究
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摘要
北太平洋温带气旋是对航行在北太平洋中高纬航线上的船舶构成严重威胁的重要天气系统。温带气旋常伴有狂风、暴雨、巨浪、低能见度等一系列恶劣天气，影响范围大，持续时间长，对在航船舶的影响程度不亚于台风。目前数值预报时效不能满足船舶越洋航线选择的需要。因此，温带气旋的天气气候资料在越洋航线选择时具有重要价值。北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候特征，是驾驶员在北太平洋特别是冬季进行航线设计时，要考虑的主要天气气候背景。同时，熟悉北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候特征，驾驶员可以更好地运用和理解船上接收的短、中期数值预报传真天气图进行船舶自导；熟悉北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候特征，对理解并灵活运用气导公司推荐的航线也有很大帮助。因此，进一步研究北太平洋温带气旋天气与活动规律具有重要意义。
在前人工作的基础上，本文对1987～1996年间发生在东亚及北太平洋地区的温带气旋做了归类统计并进行了分析研究，总结了北太平洋温带气旋的频率、强度、生成源地、发展和移动路径、大风的分布以及北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的频数、爆发性气旋的频率、强度、生成源地、发展和移动路径、温带气旋爆发性发展的平均地面气压场。在此统计分析基础上，同上述其他主要的对北太平洋温带气旋的统计资料进行了比较。本文统计的主要特点是：资料比较新；统计分析比较全面、详细，针对性更强，更实用，能更好地为航海服务；统计结果与其他资料的统计结果基本一致，但也稍有不同。最后利用统计结果，在北太平洋越洋航线选择和船舶条件下考虑爆发性气旋对策方面进行了探讨，以北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候统计特征为背景，客观分析了船舶对冬半年北太平洋中高纬安全航线的选择，具有一定的实际应用价值。最后，以北太平洋爆发性气旋的天气气候特征为背景，提出了船舶条件下考虑爆发性气旋对策方面的一些实用方法。
North pacific extratropical cyclone is an important weather system severely threatening the ships sailing on high latitude routes. Extratropical cyclone is often accompanied by hash weather such as storm, torrential rain, very rough waves and low visibility and with the wide affected area and long duration the extent to which it affects the ships in routes is not less than typhoon. The present numerical weather forecast time limit can not meet the demand of choosing interocean routes. Therefore, the material of extratropical cyclone weather and climate are very important to choosing interocean routes. The characteristics of North pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate is the main weather and climate background which navigators take into account when they choose routes on North Pacific especially in winter. Meanwhile, familiar with the characteristics of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate, navigators can better understand and operate the received short or medium numerical weather forecast fax weather chart by ships to route automatically; being familiar with the characteristics of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate is helpful to understand and properly apply the recommended routes by weather routing companies. Hereby the further research on North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and their moving regulation is of importance and meaningfulness.
On the basis of precedent research, this article categorizes and researches statistically on extratropical cyclone at East Asia and North Pacific from 1987 to 19%, and summarizes North Pacific extratropical cyclone's frequency, intensity, origin, development and moving path, gale distribution, and frequency of North Pacific extratropical cyclone explosive development, frequency of explosive extratropical cyclone, intensity, origin, development and moving path, average ground distribution of extratropical cyclone explosive development. On the basis of this statistics and analysis, it is compared with other main North Pacific extratropical cyclone statistic material. The statistic features of this article is: the material is later; statistic analysis is more
comprehensive, detail and aimed, more practical, better serves navigation ; the statistic result almost coincides with the other statistic material but there is a little deference. Finally by the statistic result, the article discusses interocean routing on North Pacific and the solution to explosive extratropical cyclone under the circumstance of ships. In the background of statistic features of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate, the article objectively analyzes the safe high latitude routing on North Pacific in cold half year and has some practical value. At last in the background of North Pacific explosive extratropical cyclone weather and climate characteristics, the practical solutions to explosive extratropical cyclone under the circumstance of ships are presented.
在前人工作的基础上，本文对1987～1996年间发生在东亚及北太平洋地区的温带气旋做了归类统计并进行了分析研究，总结了北太平洋温带气旋的频率、强度、生成源地、发展和移动路径、大风的分布以及北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的频数、爆发性气旋的频率、强度、生成源地、发展和移动路径、温带气旋爆发性发展的平均地面气压场。在此统计分析基础上，同上述其他主要的对北太平洋温带气旋的统计资料进行了比较。本文统计的主要特点是：资料比较新；统计分析比较全面、详细，针对性更强，更实用，能更好地为航海服务；统计结果与其他资料的统计结果基本一致，但也稍有不同。最后利用统计结果，在北太平洋越洋航线选择和船舶条件下考虑爆发性气旋对策方面进行了探讨，以北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候统计特征为背景，客观分析了船舶对冬半年北太平洋中高纬安全航线的选择，具有一定的实际应用价值。最后，以北太平洋爆发性气旋的天气气候特征为背景，提出了船舶条件下考虑爆发性气旋对策方面的一些实用方法。
North pacific extratropical cyclone is an important weather system severely threatening the ships sailing on high latitude routes. Extratropical cyclone is often accompanied by hash weather such as storm, torrential rain, very rough waves and low visibility and with the wide affected area and long duration the extent to which it affects the ships in routes is not less than typhoon. The present numerical weather forecast time limit can not meet the demand of choosing interocean routes. Therefore, the material of extratropical cyclone weather and climate are very important to choosing interocean routes. The characteristics of North pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate is the main weather and climate background which navigators take into account when they choose routes on North Pacific especially in winter. Meanwhile, familiar with the characteristics of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate, navigators can better understand and operate the received short or medium numerical weather forecast fax weather chart by ships to route automatically; being familiar with the characteristics of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate is helpful to understand and properly apply the recommended routes by weather routing companies. Hereby the further research on North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and their moving regulation is of importance and meaningfulness.
On the basis of precedent research, this article categorizes and researches statistically on extratropical cyclone at East Asia and North Pacific from 1987 to 19%, and summarizes North Pacific extratropical cyclone's frequency, intensity, origin, development and moving path, gale distribution, and frequency of North Pacific extratropical cyclone explosive development, frequency of explosive extratropical cyclone, intensity, origin, development and moving path, average ground distribution of extratropical cyclone explosive development. On the basis of this statistics and analysis, it is compared with other main North Pacific extratropical cyclone statistic material. The statistic features of this article is: the material is later; statistic analysis is more
comprehensive, detail and aimed, more practical, better serves navigation ; the statistic result almost coincides with the other statistic material but there is a little deference. Finally by the statistic result, the article discusses interocean routing on North Pacific and the solution to explosive extratropical cyclone under the circumstance of ships. In the background of statistic features of North Pacific extratropical cyclone weather and climate, the article objectively analyzes the safe high latitude routing on North Pacific in cold half year and has some practical value. At last in the background of North Pacific explosive extratropical cyclone weather and climate characteristics, the practical solutions to explosive extratropical cyclone under the circumstance of ships are presented.
引文
[1] Sanders F. Explosive cyclogenesis in the west-central North Atlantic Ocean, 1981-1984. Part 1: Composite structure and mean behavior. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1986, 114, 1781-1794.
[2] Gyakum J R., Anderaon J R., Grumm R H. and Gruner E L. North Pacific cold-season surface cyclone activity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1989, 117, 1141-1155.
[3] Murty T S., G A Mchean and Mckee B. Explosive cyclogenesis over the Northeast Pacific ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1983, 111, 1131-1135.
[4] Roebber P J. Statistical analysis and updated climatology of explosive cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1984, 112, 1589-1606.
[5] 董立清，李德辉．中国东部的爆发性海岸气旋．气象学报，1989，47(3)，371-375．
[6] 仪清菊，丁一汇．海洋温带气旋发生发展的研究．大气科学，1989，13(2)，238-246．
[7] 黄立文等．西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的热力-动力学分析．气象学报，1999，57(5)，581-591．
[8] 齐桂英．北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候特征，气象，1986，增刊2，90-99．
[9] 齐桂英．北太平洋爆发性气旋的气候特征．应用气象学报，1993，4(4)，426-433．
[10] 张培忠，陈受均，白岐凤．东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究．气象学报，1993，51(1)，44-55．
[11] 杨良华，北太平洋温带气旋与航线选择研究．中国航海，1993，(1)，57-66．
[12] 齐桂英．冬季北太平洋爆发性气旋的天气气候特征．应用气象学报，1992，3(1) 51-59．
[13] 张永宁．西北太平洋爆发性气旋活动与航线选择．航海技术。2000，1，1-3．
[14] 李志华．横渡北太平洋气导个例分析，大连海运学院学报，1987，(2)，105—108．
[15] 齐桂英．北太平洋爆发性气旋与其他天气系统的关系．气象，1993，19(1)，25-29．
[16] THE MARINER' S HANDBOOK. SIXTH EDITION. 1989. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U.K.
[17] OCEAN PASSAGES FOR THE WORLD. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U.K.
[18] CHINA SEA PILOT. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U. K
[19] JAPAN SEA PILOT. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U. K
[20] 陈家辉，航海气象学与海洋学．第1版．1999年5月．大连海事大学出版社．
[21] 王长爱等．船舶海洋气象导航．第1版．1993年9月．中国纺织大学出版社．
[22] 郭禹．航海学．第1版．1999年3月．大连海事大学出版社．
[23] 朱乾根等．天气学原理和方法．第1版．1999年10月．气象出版社．
[24] 王祥涛．北太平洋气旋活动与船舶自导．大连海事大学．硕士．1996年4月．
[2] Gyakum J R., Anderaon J R., Grumm R H. and Gruner E L. North Pacific cold-season surface cyclone activity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1989, 117, 1141-1155.
[3] Murty T S., G A Mchean and Mckee B. Explosive cyclogenesis over the Northeast Pacific ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1983, 111, 1131-1135.
[4] Roebber P J. Statistical analysis and updated climatology of explosive cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1984, 112, 1589-1606.
[5] 董立清，李德辉．中国东部的爆发性海岸气旋．气象学报，1989，47(3)，371-375．
[6] 仪清菊，丁一汇．海洋温带气旋发生发展的研究．大气科学，1989，13(2)，238-246．
[7] 黄立文等．西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的热力-动力学分析．气象学报，1999，57(5)，581-591．
[8] 齐桂英．北太平洋温带气旋的天气气候特征，气象，1986，增刊2，90-99．
[9] 齐桂英．北太平洋爆发性气旋的气候特征．应用气象学报，1993，4(4)，426-433．
[10] 张培忠，陈受均，白岐凤．东亚及西太平洋锋面气旋的统计研究．气象学报，1993，51(1)，44-55．
[11] 杨良华，北太平洋温带气旋与航线选择研究．中国航海，1993，(1)，57-66．
[12] 齐桂英．冬季北太平洋爆发性气旋的天气气候特征．应用气象学报，1992，3(1) 51-59．
[13] 张永宁．西北太平洋爆发性气旋活动与航线选择．航海技术。2000，1，1-3．
[14] 李志华．横渡北太平洋气导个例分析，大连海运学院学报，1987，(2)，105—108．
[15] 齐桂英．北太平洋爆发性气旋与其他天气系统的关系．气象，1993，19(1)，25-29．
[16] THE MARINER' S HANDBOOK. SIXTH EDITION. 1989. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U.K.
[17] OCEAN PASSAGES FOR THE WORLD. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U.K.
[18] CHINA SEA PILOT. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U. K
[19] JAPAN SEA PILOT. FOURTH EDITION. 1987. THE HYDROGRAPHER OF THE NAVY, U. K
[20] 陈家辉，航海气象学与海洋学．第1版．1999年5月．大连海事大学出版社．
[21] 王长爱等．船舶海洋气象导航．第1版．1993年9月．中国纺织大学出版社．
[22] 郭禹．航海学．第1版．1999年3月．大连海事大学出版社．
[23] 朱乾根等．天气学原理和方法．第1版．1999年10月．气象出版社．
[24] 王祥涛．北太平洋气旋活动与船舶自导．大连海事大学．硕士．1996年4月．