基于财政视角的中国通货膨胀研究
摘要
本文所研究的问题是中国的通货膨胀与财政政策关系,并进一步将其分成两个层次：首先,中国的通货膨胀与财政政策特别是政府投资与消费之间是否存在内在的必然联系,本文试图通过对于这个问题的回答提供一个分析中国通货膨胀问题的新的维度。其次,如果财政政策确实是形成中国通胀的一个原因,那么财政政策是通过什么机制或路径影响通货膨胀的,这点主要涉及我国现行的财政政策工具及其发挥作用所依赖的经济的内在特征等问题。
本文采用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)来研究基于财政视角的中国通货膨胀问题。DSGE是基于发达国家的经济现实发展出来并带有发达国家经济的某些特征,尝试利用这一架构分析中国经济现实时不可避免的会产生各种问题,然而这些问题所折射出的正是中国经济与发达经济之间的某些差异及其所产生的影响,所以采用DSGE架构能更好地认识中国经济的问题,并通过逐步地发展和改进现有分析架构来服务于中国经济。
本文在梳理学术界关于财政政策与通货膨胀关系的研究基础上,在立足当下的同时上溯至1994年以来我国财政政策操作和通货膨胀的发展,通过实证的方法揭示两者的内在联系,最后结合中国经济特征构建了一个分析财政政策和通货膨胀的DSGE模型,并通过定量分析得到相关结论：第一,我国的通货膨胀无论是波动的周期长度还是运行轨迹几乎与经济波动的相关特征具有高度的一致性,通货膨胀都具有很强的顺周期性而且是经济周期的滞后指标。第二,中国的政府投资性支出占GDP的比重相较于主要发达国家是比较高的,结合投资对我国经济增长的拉动作用,政府投资无疑是驱动中国经济增长的重要因素之一。第三,基于财政基本盈余测算的我国财政政策态势表明我国的财政政策具有逆风向而动的操作特征,这一特征与自1994年以来持续的财政基本盈余为负联系在一起的,而这种负的财政基本盈余的持续性也不容忽视。第四,运用模型的定量研究表明,我国政府投资性支出和消费性支出在推动经济扩张的同时对通货膨胀的发展有一定的推动作用,而且政府投资性支出相较于消费性支出而言无论是在促进经济增长方面还是推动通货膨胀方面的效能更强；政府支出对私人投资和消费的影响分布是不平衡的,主要体现在对“遵循拇指规则”家庭的消费挤出,而对于“李嘉图型家庭”却没有挤出效应；同时两类政府支出对于私人投资而言没有挤出效应；同时在政府支出冲击发生后,虽然总的消费水平在上升,但是私人消费占GDP的比重却是经历了首先向下偏离稳态然后逐步向稳态恢复的过程,这一响应模式表明在持续的政府支出冲击下,私人消费支出占比最终会下降的结果,这与我国在2000年后消费支出占比的持续下降是一致的。
From a thorough investigation of inflation fluctuations and macroeconomic policies in China since1990s last century, the author find an interesting phenomenon deserved to be researched more deeply. The point is that fiscal policy is operated tightly when the inflation is rising and to the opposite as is deflation period. This paper is studying the relation between fiscal policy and inflation in China based on that phenomenon. And the main question has two division levels in this paper. One is to answer whether there is a definite relation between the inflation and fiscal policy especially the government investment. The analysis on this level is trying to find a new dimension of research on inflation in China. Another is to figure out the mechanism through which the fiscal policy can affect the inflation. The research of this level concerns the current fiscal policy instruments and the internal characteristics of the economy through which the policy works.
This paper constructs a medium-scale structural model of Chinese economy and uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to research the Chinese inflation issue from the fiscal perspective. The current standard DSGE model is constructed dependent on the developed economies so it is full of developed economy's characteristics. Once the conflicts between the theoretical model and Chinese economic realities appear from the research, it is a good way to figure out the differences between Chinese economy and the developed ones. Therefore, the use of DSGE model is another way to realize the problems in Chinese economy and researches can be continued to improve the current framework and to serve the Chinese economy better.
After review the literatures on relation between fiscal policy and inflation, the author analyze the fiscal policy operations and inflation fluctuations in China in retrospect to1994. Chapter3reveals the relationship between the policy and inflation with an empirical analysis. And chapter4constructs a DSGE model with the Chinese economy characters to analysis the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in China. Chapter5calibrates the parameters governing the steady state based on quarterly data. The conclusions from the quantitative analysis are as following. Firstly, either the length or the running track of the inflation is highly accordantly to the economic fluctuation. Inflation is a cyclical and lagging indicator of economy. Secondly, statistical data tells that Chinese government invests more than other main countries. The government investment is undoubtedly a factor to prompt Chinese economy because the total investment has an important role in Chinese economic growth. Thirdly, fiscal policy stance estimated from the prime surplus tells the character of Chinese fiscal policy, which is a lean against the wind policy. Finally, from the model's impulse responds functions it is obvious that the government's expenditures on investment and consumption can pull inflation increasingly while they stimulate the economic expansion. The government investment has more impacts on both economic growth and inflation than government consumption. But the government expenses have different impacts on two types of households represent crowding-out and crowding-in effects in different households. Although the total value of private consumption is rising after the government expense shock, the proportion of private consumption to GDP is declining immediately and reverts to steady state slowly after that. This is a obviously crowding-out effect of government spending resulting from the DSGE model in this paper and the same as the statistics data in China after the year2000.
本文采用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)来研究基于财政视角的中国通货膨胀问题。DSGE是基于发达国家的经济现实发展出来并带有发达国家经济的某些特征,尝试利用这一架构分析中国经济现实时不可避免的会产生各种问题,然而这些问题所折射出的正是中国经济与发达经济之间的某些差异及其所产生的影响,所以采用DSGE架构能更好地认识中国经济的问题,并通过逐步地发展和改进现有分析架构来服务于中国经济。
本文在梳理学术界关于财政政策与通货膨胀关系的研究基础上,在立足当下的同时上溯至1994年以来我国财政政策操作和通货膨胀的发展,通过实证的方法揭示两者的内在联系,最后结合中国经济特征构建了一个分析财政政策和通货膨胀的DSGE模型,并通过定量分析得到相关结论：第一,我国的通货膨胀无论是波动的周期长度还是运行轨迹几乎与经济波动的相关特征具有高度的一致性,通货膨胀都具有很强的顺周期性而且是经济周期的滞后指标。第二,中国的政府投资性支出占GDP的比重相较于主要发达国家是比较高的,结合投资对我国经济增长的拉动作用,政府投资无疑是驱动中国经济增长的重要因素之一。第三,基于财政基本盈余测算的我国财政政策态势表明我国的财政政策具有逆风向而动的操作特征,这一特征与自1994年以来持续的财政基本盈余为负联系在一起的,而这种负的财政基本盈余的持续性也不容忽视。第四,运用模型的定量研究表明,我国政府投资性支出和消费性支出在推动经济扩张的同时对通货膨胀的发展有一定的推动作用,而且政府投资性支出相较于消费性支出而言无论是在促进经济增长方面还是推动通货膨胀方面的效能更强；政府支出对私人投资和消费的影响分布是不平衡的,主要体现在对“遵循拇指规则”家庭的消费挤出,而对于“李嘉图型家庭”却没有挤出效应；同时两类政府支出对于私人投资而言没有挤出效应；同时在政府支出冲击发生后,虽然总的消费水平在上升,但是私人消费占GDP的比重却是经历了首先向下偏离稳态然后逐步向稳态恢复的过程,这一响应模式表明在持续的政府支出冲击下,私人消费支出占比最终会下降的结果,这与我国在2000年后消费支出占比的持续下降是一致的。
From a thorough investigation of inflation fluctuations and macroeconomic policies in China since1990s last century, the author find an interesting phenomenon deserved to be researched more deeply. The point is that fiscal policy is operated tightly when the inflation is rising and to the opposite as is deflation period. This paper is studying the relation between fiscal policy and inflation in China based on that phenomenon. And the main question has two division levels in this paper. One is to answer whether there is a definite relation between the inflation and fiscal policy especially the government investment. The analysis on this level is trying to find a new dimension of research on inflation in China. Another is to figure out the mechanism through which the fiscal policy can affect the inflation. The research of this level concerns the current fiscal policy instruments and the internal characteristics of the economy through which the policy works.
This paper constructs a medium-scale structural model of Chinese economy and uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to research the Chinese inflation issue from the fiscal perspective. The current standard DSGE model is constructed dependent on the developed economies so it is full of developed economy's characteristics. Once the conflicts between the theoretical model and Chinese economic realities appear from the research, it is a good way to figure out the differences between Chinese economy and the developed ones. Therefore, the use of DSGE model is another way to realize the problems in Chinese economy and researches can be continued to improve the current framework and to serve the Chinese economy better.
After review the literatures on relation between fiscal policy and inflation, the author analyze the fiscal policy operations and inflation fluctuations in China in retrospect to1994. Chapter3reveals the relationship between the policy and inflation with an empirical analysis. And chapter4constructs a DSGE model with the Chinese economy characters to analysis the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in China. Chapter5calibrates the parameters governing the steady state based on quarterly data. The conclusions from the quantitative analysis are as following. Firstly, either the length or the running track of the inflation is highly accordantly to the economic fluctuation. Inflation is a cyclical and lagging indicator of economy. Secondly, statistical data tells that Chinese government invests more than other main countries. The government investment is undoubtedly a factor to prompt Chinese economy because the total investment has an important role in Chinese economic growth. Thirdly, fiscal policy stance estimated from the prime surplus tells the character of Chinese fiscal policy, which is a lean against the wind policy. Finally, from the model's impulse responds functions it is obvious that the government's expenditures on investment and consumption can pull inflation increasingly while they stimulate the economic expansion. The government investment has more impacts on both economic growth and inflation than government consumption. But the government expenses have different impacts on two types of households represent crowding-out and crowding-in effects in different households. Although the total value of private consumption is rising after the government expense shock, the proportion of private consumption to GDP is declining immediately and reverts to steady state slowly after that. This is a obviously crowding-out effect of government spending resulting from the DSGE model in this paper and the same as the statistics data in China after the year2000.
引文
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