东北地区金融发展与经济增长的实证研究
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摘要
金融被誉为现代经济发展的核心内容。并且关于金融发展对经济增长的促进作用已经得到大多数国家的认可,并且就中国宏观层面来分析,金融发展对于经济增长的促进作用也毋庸置疑。经济增长是一个国家政治稳定、社会进步、人民安居乐业的首要前提,因此发展金融也对于经济长期稳定的发展是十分必要的。中国是一个占地面积达九百六十万平方公里的幅员辽阔的国家,各个地区的自然资源、人口及经济的发展情况都存在很大的差异,并且伴随着近年来我国经济的高速增长,市场经济体制不断完善,不同地区间的经济发展水平的差距也在不断的拉大,区域经济发展不平衡的矛盾日益突出。与区域经济发展差异同时并存的是,区域间的金融发展水平亦呈现出明显的不平衡和梯度差异。随着这一矛盾的进一步激化,我国政府提出了很多措施,试图缩小区域间的差异,在保证东部地区稳定持续发展的同时,实施西部大开发、振兴东北、中部崛起等战略。这一系列措施为各个区域经济发展带来了巨大的机遇。
自2003年国务院通过“振兴东北”的决议以来,东北地区的经济发展水平得到了普遍的提高,金融业也呈现出蓬勃发展的势头,目前东北地方正在着手打造属于东北地区的金融中心。2009年4月在京举办的课题报告论证会上,让“以沈阳金融商贸开发区为核心,加快将沈阳建设成东北区域金融中心”得以成为公开议题。可见东北地区的金融发展水平已不容小视。然而在如今金融危机频繁爆发,人们对于金融的态度渐有狂热转入恐慌,既不明白危机爆发的原因,政府也没有任何有效的防范危机的措施。因此对于金融发展与经济增长关系的研究具有十分重要的现实意义,不仅可以为东北地区的金融发展与经济增长研究提供更多、更新的参考性意见和数据,同时也可以提高有关部门对金融发展的重视。
本文的研究思路是：本文在借鉴区域金融发展理论和经济增长理论的研究成果,在现有的区域金融研究成果的基础上,总结了区域金融研究中的核心概念、研究对象和未来的研究重点；运用区域金融理论的分析工具,结合东北地区金融发展的现状进行分析,探讨实现适合东北地区金融发展与经济增长自身特点的适宜之策。
第一部分：导论。对本文的选题背景、研究意义、研究理论、研究方法及思路进行概述,并对国内外文献进行综述,主要介绍金融结构与金融发展经典理论及国外对金融结构理论研究的最新成果,同时回顾和评述我国学者对中国金融结构问题研究的进展情况。
第二部分：对东北地区金融发展的现状进行分析。概述东北地区经济与金融的基本发展历程与现状,结合东北地区的实际情况,具体介绍了东北地区金融产业的发展情况以及衡量金融发展水平的具有代表性的衡量指标：用金融相关比率(FIR)即全部金融机构存贷款余额之和与GDP之比的指标来衡量东北地区金融发展规模；用货币深度(DEPTH)即M2与GDP之比的发展指标来衡量金融深化程度的,并认为东北地区金融发展在全国还处于初级水平,金融发展速度与经济增长速度之间存在不相匹配的现象。
第三部分：东北地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析。本部分是论文的重点部分,主要通过选取合适的指标,选取东北地区人均GDP指标来衡量东北地区的经济增长状况,选取金融相关比率、货币深化以及投资水平指标来衡量东北地区金融发展状况,运用数量经济方法,使用平稳性检验,格兰杰因果检验和协整理论等经济计量方法对东北地区金融发展与经济增长的内在关系进行实证研究,结果发现东北地区的金融发展与经济增长不仅存在正向促进关系,而且存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系。
第四部分：结论与建议。分析研究结果,根据结果对东北地区的经济和金融发展提出政策性建议,并提出需要进一步解决的问题
Finance is considered as the core content in modern economic development. And besides that in most of country, most of scientists do confirm that finance indeed do good to the growth of economics. From the macro level in China, people couldn't deny the positive effect that the finance did to economy. Economy is such an important part to not only people's life, the impress of the society but also the political stable of one country, it is so necessary to develop finance in order to confirm the long and stable development of economy. As China is such a big country with its boundary 9.6 million square meters, and in different areas it would have different natural resource and the quantity of population and the level of economic development. In recent years, with the high speed of development, the market economic structure become more and more perfect than before, so that would cause the big gap between different areas with different economical level, the contradiction of the un-equilibrium level of economy development in different areas become more and more serious. At the same time, the development level of finance also turns out to obviously un-equilibrium than before. In order to solve this problem, our government takes a lot of policy to improve this situation, to reduce the difference between different areas. Like under the base of protect the stable and high speed development of East district, we also take some action to develop the South district, promote the Northeast and spring up the Middle part of China. All of these strategies aimed at to bring huge opportunity to develop the regional economic development.
Since the State Department put forward the policy that to promote the development of Northeast district, this part of China's economic level has been enhanced a lot, and the finance industry has also been developed well. Now Northeast government is busy at to develop their own finance center. At the conference of finance development which was hold in Beijing at April,2009, the thesis of let Shenyang to be the finance center of Northeast district and accelerate the development of Northeast finance become a public discussion issue. So we can conclude that how important to think highly of finance development in Northeast region. But nowadays, finance crisis is such a common problem, people either couldn't know the reason of finance crisis nor don't have some completely accept policy to avoid finance crisis. So it is very important to do some research between the finance development and the growth of the economy. Not only we can provide something to consult before we make finance decision and also we can make relevant department to pay more attention to finance development.
There are four chapters in this thesis, and the main train of thought is:under the successful experiences of others to go by the regional finance development theory and the growth of economy theory, base on the nowadays research result of regional finance, conclude the core concept, research object and the main research part in the future of regional finance. Use the specific analysis tool of regional financial develop, consider their own peculiarity finance level of Northeast district, in order to find out a specific way to make their finance and economy to developed more and more better than before.
Chapter one is introduction. This chapter including the background and significance of the research, research theories, research methods and research ideas. It summarized the relevant literature at domestic and abroad, mainly focusing on the classical theory of financial structure and development, besides that analysis the latest results of financial structure theory research. It also commented on the research which has been done by scholars in China.
Chapter two is about the modern status of finance and economic development of Northeast region. Consider the actual status of Northeast region, introduce the whole current situation of finance industry concretely and introduce the representative indexes of measure the financial development level. For example, here the writer use the FIR to imply the scale of Northeast financial development, and use the index DEPTH to imply the deep level of Northeast financial development, here we conclude that compare to the whole country that the financial development in Northeast region is little lower than average, and the speed of finance development couldn't catch up the speed of economical development.
Chapter three is the core part of this thesis, it is about the empirical analysis on the relationship between the financial development and the growth of the economy in Northeast district. Here the writer choose the RGDP to imply the growth of economy, and FIR,DEPTH,LNV to imply the financial development, using econometrics method such as ADF Test, Granger Test and Co integration Test to analysis the inside relationship between the financial development and the growth of economy in Northeast area. Concluding that the finance do have some positive impact on economical growth and they do have cause and effect relationship base on Granger meaning.
The last Chapter is about the conclusion and recommendations. Base on the result of this thesis to provide some useful advice on finance and economical development in Northeast district in the future, and put forward some issue that this thesis couldn't solved.
自2003年国务院通过“振兴东北”的决议以来,东北地区的经济发展水平得到了普遍的提高,金融业也呈现出蓬勃发展的势头,目前东北地方正在着手打造属于东北地区的金融中心。2009年4月在京举办的课题报告论证会上,让“以沈阳金融商贸开发区为核心,加快将沈阳建设成东北区域金融中心”得以成为公开议题。可见东北地区的金融发展水平已不容小视。然而在如今金融危机频繁爆发,人们对于金融的态度渐有狂热转入恐慌,既不明白危机爆发的原因,政府也没有任何有效的防范危机的措施。因此对于金融发展与经济增长关系的研究具有十分重要的现实意义,不仅可以为东北地区的金融发展与经济增长研究提供更多、更新的参考性意见和数据,同时也可以提高有关部门对金融发展的重视。
本文的研究思路是：本文在借鉴区域金融发展理论和经济增长理论的研究成果,在现有的区域金融研究成果的基础上,总结了区域金融研究中的核心概念、研究对象和未来的研究重点；运用区域金融理论的分析工具,结合东北地区金融发展的现状进行分析,探讨实现适合东北地区金融发展与经济增长自身特点的适宜之策。
第一部分：导论。对本文的选题背景、研究意义、研究理论、研究方法及思路进行概述,并对国内外文献进行综述,主要介绍金融结构与金融发展经典理论及国外对金融结构理论研究的最新成果,同时回顾和评述我国学者对中国金融结构问题研究的进展情况。
第二部分：对东北地区金融发展的现状进行分析。概述东北地区经济与金融的基本发展历程与现状,结合东北地区的实际情况,具体介绍了东北地区金融产业的发展情况以及衡量金融发展水平的具有代表性的衡量指标：用金融相关比率(FIR)即全部金融机构存贷款余额之和与GDP之比的指标来衡量东北地区金融发展规模；用货币深度(DEPTH)即M2与GDP之比的发展指标来衡量金融深化程度的,并认为东北地区金融发展在全国还处于初级水平,金融发展速度与经济增长速度之间存在不相匹配的现象。
第三部分：东北地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析。本部分是论文的重点部分,主要通过选取合适的指标,选取东北地区人均GDP指标来衡量东北地区的经济增长状况,选取金融相关比率、货币深化以及投资水平指标来衡量东北地区金融发展状况,运用数量经济方法,使用平稳性检验,格兰杰因果检验和协整理论等经济计量方法对东北地区金融发展与经济增长的内在关系进行实证研究,结果发现东北地区的金融发展与经济增长不仅存在正向促进关系,而且存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系。
第四部分：结论与建议。分析研究结果,根据结果对东北地区的经济和金融发展提出政策性建议,并提出需要进一步解决的问题
Finance is considered as the core content in modern economic development. And besides that in most of country, most of scientists do confirm that finance indeed do good to the growth of economics. From the macro level in China, people couldn't deny the positive effect that the finance did to economy. Economy is such an important part to not only people's life, the impress of the society but also the political stable of one country, it is so necessary to develop finance in order to confirm the long and stable development of economy. As China is such a big country with its boundary 9.6 million square meters, and in different areas it would have different natural resource and the quantity of population and the level of economic development. In recent years, with the high speed of development, the market economic structure become more and more perfect than before, so that would cause the big gap between different areas with different economical level, the contradiction of the un-equilibrium level of economy development in different areas become more and more serious. At the same time, the development level of finance also turns out to obviously un-equilibrium than before. In order to solve this problem, our government takes a lot of policy to improve this situation, to reduce the difference between different areas. Like under the base of protect the stable and high speed development of East district, we also take some action to develop the South district, promote the Northeast and spring up the Middle part of China. All of these strategies aimed at to bring huge opportunity to develop the regional economic development.
Since the State Department put forward the policy that to promote the development of Northeast district, this part of China's economic level has been enhanced a lot, and the finance industry has also been developed well. Now Northeast government is busy at to develop their own finance center. At the conference of finance development which was hold in Beijing at April,2009, the thesis of let Shenyang to be the finance center of Northeast district and accelerate the development of Northeast finance become a public discussion issue. So we can conclude that how important to think highly of finance development in Northeast region. But nowadays, finance crisis is such a common problem, people either couldn't know the reason of finance crisis nor don't have some completely accept policy to avoid finance crisis. So it is very important to do some research between the finance development and the growth of the economy. Not only we can provide something to consult before we make finance decision and also we can make relevant department to pay more attention to finance development.
There are four chapters in this thesis, and the main train of thought is:under the successful experiences of others to go by the regional finance development theory and the growth of economy theory, base on the nowadays research result of regional finance, conclude the core concept, research object and the main research part in the future of regional finance. Use the specific analysis tool of regional financial develop, consider their own peculiarity finance level of Northeast district, in order to find out a specific way to make their finance and economy to developed more and more better than before.
Chapter one is introduction. This chapter including the background and significance of the research, research theories, research methods and research ideas. It summarized the relevant literature at domestic and abroad, mainly focusing on the classical theory of financial structure and development, besides that analysis the latest results of financial structure theory research. It also commented on the research which has been done by scholars in China.
Chapter two is about the modern status of finance and economic development of Northeast region. Consider the actual status of Northeast region, introduce the whole current situation of finance industry concretely and introduce the representative indexes of measure the financial development level. For example, here the writer use the FIR to imply the scale of Northeast financial development, and use the index DEPTH to imply the deep level of Northeast financial development, here we conclude that compare to the whole country that the financial development in Northeast region is little lower than average, and the speed of finance development couldn't catch up the speed of economical development.
Chapter three is the core part of this thesis, it is about the empirical analysis on the relationship between the financial development and the growth of the economy in Northeast district. Here the writer choose the RGDP to imply the growth of economy, and FIR,DEPTH,LNV to imply the financial development, using econometrics method such as ADF Test, Granger Test and Co integration Test to analysis the inside relationship between the financial development and the growth of economy in Northeast area. Concluding that the finance do have some positive impact on economical growth and they do have cause and effect relationship base on Granger meaning.
The last Chapter is about the conclusion and recommendations. Base on the result of this thesis to provide some useful advice on finance and economical development in Northeast district in the future, and put forward some issue that this thesis couldn't solved.
引文
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①白钦先,张志文.金融发展与经济增长：中国的经验研究[J].南方经济,2008(9)
①休.T.帕特里克.欠发达国家的金融发展与经济增长[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1966
①麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本(中译本)[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1988
①谈儒勇.中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,1999(10),53-61
②韩廷春.金融发展与经济增长：经验模型与政策分析[J].世界经济,2001(6),3-9
①李广众.银行、股票市场与经济增长[J].经济科学,2002(2)24-33
②冉茂盛、张宗益、冯军.中国经济增长与金融发展关联性的实证研究[J].重庆大学学报,2002(4),32-40
③赵振全、薛丰慧.金融发展对经济增长影响的实证分析[J].金融研究,2004(8)
④刘伟、王汝芳.中国资本市场效率实证分析—直接融资与间接融资效率比较[J],金融研究2006(6),64-73
①林毅夫、孙希芳.银行业结构与经济增长[J],经济研究2008(9),31-45
②田成诗.中国股市信贷市场扩张与经济增长的关系[J],大连海事学报,2010(6)
③白钦先金融可持续发展理论研究导论。中国金融出版社,2001
①周立、王子明.中国各地区金融发展与经济增长[J],金融研究2002(10),1-13
②周好文、钟永红.中国金融中介发展与地区经济增长：多变量VAR系统分析[J],金融研究2004(6),130--137
③艾洪德,徐明圣,郭凯.我国区域金融发展与区域经济增长关系的实证分析[J].财经问题研究,2004(07)
①张海波,吴陶.中国各地区金融发展与经济增长—基于Panel Data模型的分析[J],统计与决策,2005(6),66-67
②冉光和、李敬.中国金融发展与经济增长关系的区域差异—基于东部和西部面板数据的检
验和分析[J],中国软科学,2006(2),102--110
③李洪慈.东北区域金融阶段性发展战略问题研究[D].东北财经大学博士学位论文,2007
④李茹兰、张晶.货币政策区域效应对我国区际经济差距影响的实证分析,北京师范大学学报[J],2008(6),124--129
①吴拥政、陆峰.基于金融生态视角的区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析[J],区域金融研究2010(5),30-33
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