台湾货币与物价在经济面之实证研究
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摘要
有关货币对物价膨胀的影响,长久以来一直是经济理论及决策上,最主要的争论问题之一。货币由最初之被视为不具影响力,经过多年的争论后,终于在1970年代时,至少在理论上受到完全的承认。然而仍有许多包括决策者在内之人,并不完全信服,其中一个最主要的原因,就是实证上,货币常常显现不出其重要性。本文因此重新由另一个角度出发,去探讨货币对物价之影响,并以台湾的资料,作实证分析。为了明了物价膨胀理论的演进过程,本文首先按序,将物价膨胀理论配合宏观经济理论的演进,作纵剖面的历史性观察,其次,并对货币与物价之国内、外有关的实证研究文献作回顾,以检讨货币在实证时为何具有影响力及不具影响力之原因。对于能使货币产生影响力的方法,进一步以台湾的资料,重作实证检讨。最后,提出本文的核心命题,重新由货币在物价膨胀的过程中,所扮演的「充分」条件及「必要」条件之角色,去探讨它对物价的影响力,并用台湾的总、个体资料去验证这二个命题。充分条件表示当货币扩张率达到一个临界水准时,会直接产生实质余额效果,引起市场需求拉力,而造成需求拉升的物价膨胀。货币的这种角色,属于「量」的作用。必要条件表示货币扩张幅度未达临界水准时,并未直接引起需求拉力,而逐次累积成一种或松或紧的环境。如果货币环境宽松,则一遇有进口价格或其它成本因素外生的上涨压力,货币扮演支持与扩大成本加成上涨的助燃作用。货币的这种角色,属于「质」作用。所以,对于货币的影响效果,传统上均只就「量」的作用去观察,而却没有临界率之要求,因此均发现货币之影响力不大。至于「质」的作用,则完全为一般所忽略,但是它可能更常见。由货币的充分与必要条件之实证,我们发现台湾的货币对物价变动,具有极显着之影响力。货币环境这种质的作用,不但影响成本推动的物价膨胀,且可以应用在货币政策效果的时差之讨论以及相对价格变动之分析上。本文实证,货币对物价之影响的落后时差,并研究这种时差如何受到货币环境宽松不一之影响,而加长或缩短。由于货币环境之松紧情况随时在变化,因此政策效果的落后时差,也随时在变化,既然时差不定,则货币政策的有效性即令人怀疑,此种命题支持货币学派对凯因斯学派之权衡应用货币政策的批评。其次,货币环境会影响成本增加后,厂商的加成转嫁之能力,如果环境宽松,成本上升之加成容易,各物齐涨,该有的相对价格变动,无从发挥起。反之,如果环境紧俏,则来自成本因素之变化即难以顺利的加成反应,而形成各物价格的相对变动,每一种产品,因为其供需特性以及其它条件的差异,自然会有不同的反应,进而产生相对价格调整。另外,1970年代以来,文献上均在探讨物价膨胀率上升,
The influence of money on prices has been disputed for a long time among economistsand policy makers. Money did not matter for many economists until 1970,and then almostall economists accepted that it mattered. However, in over half of the empirical studies,money has failed to convince people of its influence. The purpose of this paper is toinvestigate the influence of money on prices from a different point of view, and to use theTaiwan data to do empirical research.
For the sake of understanding the evolution of inflation theory, this paper firstlydescribes the development of inflation theory over time in accordance with the evolution ofmacroeconomics, and then surveys all of the related empirical literature concerning moneyand inflation, examining what makes money matter, and what does not. With respect tothose factors and methods that make money matter we have also carried out empirical testsusing Taiwan data. Finally, we describe our “sufficient”and “necessary”conditionhypothesis.
The influence of money on prices is quite different from that of the other factors.During the process of inflation, money plays two roles, when its grourth rate reaches acritical level, there will be a real balance effect, that will create a huge demand thusbecoming the “demand pull inflation”. This is a kind of “quantitative”effect, which we callthe “sufficient”condition of inflation. If the growth rate of money does not reach the criticallevel, it will accumulate gradually leading to “tight”or “loose”circumstances, which willinfluence the price mark-up on cost push, a kind of “qualitative”effect, which we call the“necessary condition”of inflation. Traditionally, the empirical study of money and pricesonly took into consideration the “quantitative”effect, with no consideration of the criticallevel. This always leads to the conclusion that money doestn't matter! The “qualitative”effect had been neglected completely. In reality, however, money's qualitative effect is oftenmore significant than the quantitative effect. This empirical study on Taiwan's economysupports our necessary and sufficient condition hypothesis.
The “qualitative”effect of money not only influences the cost-push inflation, but alsoaffects the time lag of monetary policy and the variability of relative prices. If thecircumstances for accumulating money in the recent past have been tight, then the time lagbetween money and prices will be longer, and if it has been loose,the lag will be shorter.
Because the monetary circumstances are changing all the time, the policy lag is likewisechanging, and then the effectiveness of monetary policy is doubtful. This statementsupports the Monetarists'criticism of the Keynesians'discretionary monetary policy. Inaddition, the monetary circumstances affect the variability of relative prices. Control of themoney supply can not only check inflation and the unnecessary relative price changes, butcan also make the necessary price adjustment owing to the changes in the supply anddemand conditions being executed.The methodologies used in this empirical study ary the ordinary least square method,the dummy variable, and the Almon lag technique. The data used such as the imported price,the wholesale price, the consumer price, money, the interest rate, income, the industrialwages and prices are separately taken from the Quarterly National Income Estimates of theRepublic of China(1961-1979);A Supplement to Financial Statistics Monthly, TaiwanDistrict, the Republic of China 1983,Oct., Financial Statistics Monthly, Taiwan Distrit, theRepublic of China;Commodity Price Statistics Monthly, Taiwan Area.R.O.C.;The data oninternational money and prices, are taken from International Financial Statistics.
The influence of money on prices has been disputed for a long time among economistsand policy makers. Money did not matter for many economists until 1970,and then almostall economists accepted that it mattered. However, in over half of the empirical studies,money has failed to convince people of its influence. The purpose of this paper is toinvestigate the influence of money on prices from a different point of view, and to use theTaiwan data to do empirical research.
For the sake of understanding the evolution of inflation theory, this paper firstlydescribes the development of inflation theory over time in accordance with the evolution ofmacroeconomics, and then surveys all of the related empirical literature concerning moneyand inflation, examining what makes money matter, and what does not. With respect tothose factors and methods that make money matter we have also carried out empirical testsusing Taiwan data. Finally, we describe our “sufficient”and “necessary”conditionhypothesis.
The influence of money on prices is quite different from that of the other factors.During the process of inflation, money plays two roles, when its grourth rate reaches acritical level, there will be a real balance effect, that will create a huge demand thusbecoming the “demand pull inflation”. This is a kind of “quantitative”effect, which we callthe “sufficient”condition of inflation. If the growth rate of money does not reach the criticallevel, it will accumulate gradually leading to “tight”or “loose”circumstances, which willinfluence the price mark-up on cost push, a kind of “qualitative”effect, which we call the“necessary condition”of inflation. Traditionally, the empirical study of money and pricesonly took into consideration the “quantitative”effect, with no consideration of the criticallevel. This always leads to the conclusion that money doestn't matter! The “qualitative”effect had been neglected completely. In reality, however, money's qualitative effect is oftenmore significant than the quantitative effect. This empirical study on Taiwan's economysupports our necessary and sufficient condition hypothesis.
The “qualitative”effect of money not only influences the cost-push inflation, but alsoaffects the time lag of monetary policy and the variability of relative prices. If thecircumstances for accumulating money in the recent past have been tight, then the time lagbetween money and prices will be longer, and if it has been loose,the lag will be shorter.
Because the monetary circumstances are changing all the time, the policy lag is likewisechanging, and then the effectiveness of monetary policy is doubtful. This statementsupports the Monetarists'criticism of the Keynesians'discretionary monetary policy. Inaddition, the monetary circumstances affect the variability of relative prices. Control of themoney supply can not only check inflation and the unnecessary relative price changes, butcan also make the necessary price adjustment owing to the changes in the supply anddemand conditions being executed.The methodologies used in this empirical study ary the ordinary least square method,the dummy variable, and the Almon lag technique. The data used such as the imported price,the wholesale price, the consumer price, money, the interest rate, income, the industrialwages and prices are separately taken from the Quarterly National Income Estimates of theRepublic of China(1961-1979);A Supplement to Financial Statistics Monthly, TaiwanDistrict, the Republic of China 1983,Oct., Financial Statistics Monthly, Taiwan Distrit, theRepublic of China;Commodity Price Statistics Monthly, Taiwan Area.R.O.C.;The data oninternational money and prices, are taken from International Financial Statistics.
引文
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