南京农户消费行为研究
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摘要
2009年末,农村人口占我国人口比重的53.41%,而当年农村人口消费总量只占居民消费总量的23.80%,可见农村市场是一个消费潜力巨大的市场。过去靠“投资、出口、消费”三驾马车,以前两者为重推动经济增长,其带来的副作用就是投资产出过剩,环境、资源代价过大,为了保持我国经济持续较快协调增长,在当前国内外形势下需要转变传统的拉动经济增长的方式,强调消费尤其是农村消费对经济增长的贡献,从而实现中国经济的持续和谐发展。
改革开放后,随着国民经济的发展,农村居民收入呈现增加的趋势,农民的消费水平逐步提高,消费结构不断优化升级,从温饱型向发展型、享受型方向发展。市场化改革后,随着农民收入的增加,农户所面临的收入消费不确定性增加及社会保障制度滞后的作用,平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向呈现平稳中有较弱的下降趋势,随后又有所回升或呈“U”或称浴盆曲线。本文通过南京农户的数据得到了验证。
本文对农民消费结构、结构之间的关系、八大类消费的边际、弹性进行了分析。从描述性的动态对比、典型相关、扩展线性支出系统三方面进行分析。动态分析得出南京农户消费结构的变动度,消费结构的合理中有些许瑕疵,从消费结构看,按目前的标准生活逐渐进入富裕阶段。分析了消费结构与收入结构的内在关系,典型结构分析得出,影响消费的最主要的是工资性收入。用ELES法测算各类消费的边际和弹性,结果交通通讯的边际消费倾向和收入弹性和价格弹性最高,而食品的边际和弹性最低。
本研究用多种方法分析了不确定性对农户消费行为的影响。用动态描述的方法,以不确定性为重点,在持久收入假设、生命周期假设的基础上引入不确定性构建了两个模型和Dynan的预防性储蓄模型对南京农户消费行为进行分析。结论是南京农户在1998-2002年之间不确定性最强,引致了大量的防卫性储蓄,消费率低下,这很大程度上与当时的经济政治形势及政策制度有关。不确定性加大、未来的风险预期增加,从而流动性约束增强,预防性储蓄增加。
最后分析了农户风险应对与消费波动,农户不仅暴露于各种风险之中,而且通常缺乏风险处理的手段,因而很容易遭受最直接的损失。在尚未建立健全的农村社会保障制度背景下,农户很大程度上依靠社会网络内的风险统筹策略以及跨时期平滑策略等自发机制来应对风险,缓解消费的波动。模型分析表明,社会网络内的风险统筹、跨时期消费平滑策略和正规风险规避策略在应对风险过程都有一定的作用,其中社会网络内的风险统筹在农户应对风险的过程中发挥着最重要的作用。
The proportion of rural population in China accounted for53.41%and the total current consumption of the rural population accounted for only23.80%of total consumption at the end of2009, showing that consumption of the rural market is a huge potential market. Chinese economic growth is promoted by by "investment, exports and consumption", expecially by the previous two over the past years, its side effects is investment and output are excessive, the environment pollution and excessive resources costs. In order to maintain coordination of sustained and rapid economic growth in the current situation, we need to change the traditional way of stimulating economic growth, emphasizing the consumption, especially in rural areas, has contribution to economic growth in order to achieve sustainable and harmonious development of China's economy.
After the reforms, income of rural residents has been showing an increasing trend with the national economic development, the farmers'consumption level gradually was increased and consumption structure was optimized upgrade from subsistence to development and enjoyment-type direction. Market-oriented reforms, farmers face many uncertainties such as income,consumption and social security system, the average propensity to consume and marginal propensity to consumption was declining or "U" or said bathtub curve. It has been verified.by Nanjing farmers'incomr and consumption in the paper.
In this paper, rural consumption structure, structure relationship, the eight consumption margines, flexibility have been analyzed. Structure relationship, the eight consumption margines and flexibility were obtained by the description of dynamic contrast, canonical correlation, extended linear expenditure system. Dynamic analysis of household consumption structure of Nanjing shows that there have some change in consumption structure, but a slight flaw. From the consumption structure according to the current standard, the living level of rural household Nanjing has arrived gradually into the rich phase. Consumption structure and income structure of the intrinsic relationship,and the eight categories of the marginal consumption, and the elasticity of price income,and the consumption structure prediction were been studied in the paper. The result by canonical analysis that wage income is the most important factor to affect consumption. The results of marginal and elasticity value were derived by extended linear expenditure system (ELES), and show the marginal propensity to consumption, income elasticity and price elasticity of communications are the highest, and thats of food are the lowest.
In this study, several methods of uncertainty on the impact of household consumption behavior are applyed. Dynamic description of the method used to focus on the uncertainty, by the permanent income hypothesis and life-cycle hypothesis based on the introduction of uncertainty, two models are constructed, with the model and Dynan'precautionary savings model, consumer's behavior in rural Nanjing analyzed. The result shows that the uncertainty was the strongest between1998-2002, accompanied by to a large number of defensive savings. Consumption rate is small in this stage because the economic and political situation and related policies and systems were uncertainty. Uncertainty increased, the expected of future risk increased and thus increase liquidity constraints, precautionary saving.
Finally, household consumption volatility and risk response are studied, farmers not only exposed to a variety of risk, and usually lack the means of risk management and they suffer vulnerable to the most direct losses. In the absence of establishing a sound social security system, rural areas, farmers rely heavily on social co-ordination mechanism and socieal network and intertemporal smoothing mechanism to deal with the risk and ease the consumption volatility. The result by Model analysis showed that the risk of co-ordination of social network, cross-period consumption smoothing mechanisms and formal mechanisms of risk aversion should have a role in the risk process, in which the risk of co-ordination within the social network to cope with risks in the process of farmers play the most important Effect.
改革开放后,随着国民经济的发展,农村居民收入呈现增加的趋势,农民的消费水平逐步提高,消费结构不断优化升级,从温饱型向发展型、享受型方向发展。市场化改革后,随着农民收入的增加,农户所面临的收入消费不确定性增加及社会保障制度滞后的作用,平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向呈现平稳中有较弱的下降趋势,随后又有所回升或呈“U”或称浴盆曲线。本文通过南京农户的数据得到了验证。
本文对农民消费结构、结构之间的关系、八大类消费的边际、弹性进行了分析。从描述性的动态对比、典型相关、扩展线性支出系统三方面进行分析。动态分析得出南京农户消费结构的变动度,消费结构的合理中有些许瑕疵,从消费结构看,按目前的标准生活逐渐进入富裕阶段。分析了消费结构与收入结构的内在关系,典型结构分析得出,影响消费的最主要的是工资性收入。用ELES法测算各类消费的边际和弹性,结果交通通讯的边际消费倾向和收入弹性和价格弹性最高,而食品的边际和弹性最低。
本研究用多种方法分析了不确定性对农户消费行为的影响。用动态描述的方法,以不确定性为重点,在持久收入假设、生命周期假设的基础上引入不确定性构建了两个模型和Dynan的预防性储蓄模型对南京农户消费行为进行分析。结论是南京农户在1998-2002年之间不确定性最强,引致了大量的防卫性储蓄,消费率低下,这很大程度上与当时的经济政治形势及政策制度有关。不确定性加大、未来的风险预期增加,从而流动性约束增强,预防性储蓄增加。
最后分析了农户风险应对与消费波动,农户不仅暴露于各种风险之中,而且通常缺乏风险处理的手段,因而很容易遭受最直接的损失。在尚未建立健全的农村社会保障制度背景下,农户很大程度上依靠社会网络内的风险统筹策略以及跨时期平滑策略等自发机制来应对风险,缓解消费的波动。模型分析表明,社会网络内的风险统筹、跨时期消费平滑策略和正规风险规避策略在应对风险过程都有一定的作用,其中社会网络内的风险统筹在农户应对风险的过程中发挥着最重要的作用。
The proportion of rural population in China accounted for53.41%and the total current consumption of the rural population accounted for only23.80%of total consumption at the end of2009, showing that consumption of the rural market is a huge potential market. Chinese economic growth is promoted by by "investment, exports and consumption", expecially by the previous two over the past years, its side effects is investment and output are excessive, the environment pollution and excessive resources costs. In order to maintain coordination of sustained and rapid economic growth in the current situation, we need to change the traditional way of stimulating economic growth, emphasizing the consumption, especially in rural areas, has contribution to economic growth in order to achieve sustainable and harmonious development of China's economy.
After the reforms, income of rural residents has been showing an increasing trend with the national economic development, the farmers'consumption level gradually was increased and consumption structure was optimized upgrade from subsistence to development and enjoyment-type direction. Market-oriented reforms, farmers face many uncertainties such as income,consumption and social security system, the average propensity to consume and marginal propensity to consumption was declining or "U" or said bathtub curve. It has been verified.by Nanjing farmers'incomr and consumption in the paper.
In this paper, rural consumption structure, structure relationship, the eight consumption margines, flexibility have been analyzed. Structure relationship, the eight consumption margines and flexibility were obtained by the description of dynamic contrast, canonical correlation, extended linear expenditure system. Dynamic analysis of household consumption structure of Nanjing shows that there have some change in consumption structure, but a slight flaw. From the consumption structure according to the current standard, the living level of rural household Nanjing has arrived gradually into the rich phase. Consumption structure and income structure of the intrinsic relationship,and the eight categories of the marginal consumption, and the elasticity of price income,and the consumption structure prediction were been studied in the paper. The result by canonical analysis that wage income is the most important factor to affect consumption. The results of marginal and elasticity value were derived by extended linear expenditure system (ELES), and show the marginal propensity to consumption, income elasticity and price elasticity of communications are the highest, and thats of food are the lowest.
In this study, several methods of uncertainty on the impact of household consumption behavior are applyed. Dynamic description of the method used to focus on the uncertainty, by the permanent income hypothesis and life-cycle hypothesis based on the introduction of uncertainty, two models are constructed, with the model and Dynan'precautionary savings model, consumer's behavior in rural Nanjing analyzed. The result shows that the uncertainty was the strongest between1998-2002, accompanied by to a large number of defensive savings. Consumption rate is small in this stage because the economic and political situation and related policies and systems were uncertainty. Uncertainty increased, the expected of future risk increased and thus increase liquidity constraints, precautionary saving.
Finally, household consumption volatility and risk response are studied, farmers not only exposed to a variety of risk, and usually lack the means of risk management and they suffer vulnerable to the most direct losses. In the absence of establishing a sound social security system, rural areas, farmers rely heavily on social co-ordination mechanism and socieal network and intertemporal smoothing mechanism to deal with the risk and ease the consumption volatility. The result by Model analysis showed that the risk of co-ordination of social network, cross-period consumption smoothing mechanisms and formal mechanisms of risk aversion should have a role in the risk process, in which the risk of co-ordination within the social network to cope with risks in the process of farmers play the most important Effect.
引文
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8 黄弈林,赵爱华.不确定性经济学的发展.经济学动态.1997年第9期.P58
9 陈娴：农村居民收入流向的实证分析,南京统计局网2008
10 陈娴：农村居民收入流向的实证分析,南京统计局网2008
11 余维祥：中国农户积累消费问题研究P154,科学出版社2003
12 陈娴：忆改革开放峥嵘岁月谱农民生活络绎新篇。南京统计局网
13 陈娴：忆改革开放峥嵘岁月谱农民生活络绎新篇。南京统计局网
14 陈娴：忆改革开放峥嵘岁月谱农民生活络绎新篇。南京统计局网
15 杨基富：2008年我市农民家庭生活耐用消费品又有新提高。南京统计局网
16 刘惠英.江苏农民消费结构分析.中国农村观察.2000(5)
17 温岭白菜“菜贱伤农”.报刊文摘.2011-3-7
18 金融数据来源于陈娴：“农村居民收入流向的实证分析”,统计调研2008,南京市统计局。收入数据来源于《南京统计年鉴》
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13 陈娴：忆改革开放峥嵘岁月谱农民生活络绎新篇。南京统计局网
14 陈娴：忆改革开放峥嵘岁月谱农民生活络绎新篇。南京统计局网
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