人民币升值对中国资产价格的影响研究
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摘要
多年来随着中国经济的高速增长和外汇储备的不断增加,人民币的购买力水平持续提高,进而升值压力凸显。2005年7月21日,央行宣布人民币升值2%,自此人民币结束了维持十年之久的人民币汇率“盯住制”,开始转向以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。至2008年9月底,人民币缓慢升值已有三年的时间,人民币兑美元汇率从8.28:1上升至6.83:1,累计升值幅度已达17.5%,年平均升幅约为6%。
然而,就在升值初期(2005年7月至2007年10月)出现了资产价格的大幅膨胀。中国股票市场的上证指数从2005年6月的最低点998点上涨到2007年10月最高点的6124点,同期A股指数也从最低点1047点上涨到的最高点6429点,最高涨幅为6倍多;房地产价格虽然在2005年之前就开始不断攀升,但当升值预期被市场普遍认可后,以北京、上海和深圳为首的大中城市房地产价格更是在原来的基础上进一步上涨2-3倍。而随后,中国政府从2007年10月开始的主动调控使资产价格大幅回落。上证指数曾跌至2008年9月的最低点1802点,同时,A股指数从最高点一度跌至2008年9月的最低点1892点,跌幅达到70%;2008年第二季度开始,房地产价格也出现了松动,继股票价格大跌之后房地产价格也处于风雨飘摇之中。
自汇率机制改革以来,人民币升值趋势不减,资产价格经历了从暴涨到大幅下跌的过程。2006年的流动性过剩的热钱还在到处涌动,这些流动性不仅一度造成了资产价格的大幅上涨,而且自2007年以来还造成了通货膨胀,该势头还保持到了2008年。国家实施多年的稳健的货币政策也转向从紧货币政策。同时,人民币名义汇率升值速度在加快,如果继续升值且幅度扩大,其对经济的潜在影响还无法估量。这些问题困扰着当局者,中国政府正处在经济发展的两难境地,也正面对前所未有的挑战。
这些现象引发出一系列问题和思考:为何本币升值总是伴随资产价格的大起大落?本币升值是通过何种机制作用于资产价格的?日本资产价格破灭对实体经济产生的严重影响不得不让人深思,而我国目前也已经出现了股票价格大幅下跌的局面。那么,我国是否也会重蹈覆辙?我们应该如何避免资产价格的下跌对实体经济的巨大冲击昵?
本文将从上述问题出发,通过理论探讨和实证分析研究人民币升值压力下中国资产价格大起大落的状况及成因,并分别就本币升值对我国股票市场和房地产市场的影响进行了细致思考。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了紧缩货币政策下可能产生的资产泡沫破灭及资产价格大幅下跌对宏观经济的影响,并提出相关解决方案。从某种程度上讲,资产价格的大幅下跌比大幅增长更可怕。如果中国无法妥善处理好资产价格大幅下跌的问题,不仅会影响到宏观经济的稳定和持续增长以及产业结构的调整等,还可能引发一系列的后遗症。中国不能重蹈日本之覆辙,因为那样的代价对中国这样一个发展中国家来说太大了,其后果是相当严重的,我国一定要加以防治。
全文除引言和第一章文献回顾之外,主要内容共分为四部分:
第一部分为现实篇,即第2章。在回顾人民币汇率机制改革的基础上,论述了人民币升值压力及其预期;接着探讨了由人民币升值预期带来的国际资本流动;最后描述国内资产价格全面膨胀和中国A股市场出现大幅回落以及房地产市场出现松动的现实情况。
第二部分为理论篇,即第3章。首先阐述了国际短期资本流动对货币供给的影响,接着在此基础上分析人民币升值导致的流动性,以及产生流动性的路径方式,试图从货币供给的宏观角度来分析人民币升值带来的新增货币的流动性对中国资产价格的影响及传导机制,建立了流动性对资产价格传导机制的框架模型,并从实证角度证明了流动性对资产价格的影响。
第三部分为实证篇,分为第4章和第5章。第4章是针对人民币升值对A股市场影响作了具体分析,然后对汇率与A股指数与各个行业指数分别进行实证分析。第5章则主要分析了汇率升值对中国房地产市场的影响,具体分析了人民币升值对房地产市场的影响。
第四部分为对策篇,是本文的最后2章。第6章首先阐述了自汇率机制改革以来,央行货币政策三大工具的实施,以及实施的紧缩货币政策对资产价格的影响;其次在回顾20世纪80年代末日本教训的基础上,总结紧缩的货币政策对资产价格的作用;最后论文了房地产价格大幅下跌对经济造成的伤害;第7章则是结论与政策建议,针对货币政策以及如何避免中国因货币升值和资产价格大幅下跌引致经济衰退的政策建议。
With the rapid growth of Chinese economy and the fast increase of foreign exchange reserves over the years, the purchasing power of RMB continues to rise, which results in subsequent pressures of RMB's appreciation. On July 21, 2005, the Central Bank of China announced that RMB would appreciate by 2%. Since then the decade-long "pegged" system of exchange rate has ended and shifted to a floating one based on supplies and demands, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the end-Sept of 2008, appreciation of RMB has been implemented for three years. The exchange rate between RMB and dollar has risen from 8.28:1 to 6.83:1, and the cumulative appreciation rate has reached 17.5%, the average yearly increase of 6%.
In the early period, asset price inflated substantially along with the appreciation of RMB. The A-share stock market index of China soared to its highest point of 6429 in October, 2007 from the lowest point of 1047 in June, 2005, with an increase of more than six times. While the price of real estates started to rise before the appreciation of RMB, and after the appreciation was generally recognized by the market, the prices of real estates of the big cities led by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have risen up by 2-3 times. Then, the Chinese government started the initiative to control asset prices from October, 2007. A stock index fell from its peak to 1892 point of September, 2008, with a decrease of 70%. After the second quarter of 2008, the real estate price also began to fall.
Since the exchange rate mechanism reform, the RMB appreciation trend has not weakened, and asset prices experienced a sharp decline from the surge. The excess liquidity was still flowing everywhere, the mobility was not only resulted in a substantial rise in asset prices, and sine 2007 also led to inflation, which maintain in 2008. Stable monetary policy used by authorities for many years has shifted to the tight monetary policy. Chinese government is facing a series of difficulties. With the acceleration of nominal exchange rate appreciation of RMB, if we continue to expand the range, its potential impact on the economy will be incalculable, so the Chinese government is now in a dilemma.
The inflation of asset prices along with the appreciation of the exchange rate is not exceptional, which can easily be found in other countries. The appreciation of the domestic currency and asset price bubbles are closely linked. Does the appreciation of the domestic currency really have an impact on asset prices? If so, what are the channels? After Japanese asset price bubbles burst, there was an economic depression which lasted for 10 years. Is there an association between economic recession and the burst of the bubble? Will China repeat the mistakes of the Japanese economy? How should we avoid the impact which the slumpin asset prices has on the real economy?
Starting from the above-mentioned issues, the present thesis attempts to analyze the pressure of RMB appreciation and asset price inflation based on theoretical discussions and empirical research. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on China's stock market and real estate market , further studies that tight monetary policy may result in the asset bubble burst which would impact on macroeconomic, and gives related solutions. To some extent, the sharp decline in asset prices is more terrible than the surge. If one government can not properly handle the sharp decline in asset prices, it will affect not only the macro-economic stability and sustained economic growth, but also the adjustment of industrial structure. China can not repeat the mistakes of Japan, because the cost for a developing country like China is too big and the consequences are very serious. China must take right actions.
然而,就在升值初期(2005年7月至2007年10月)出现了资产价格的大幅膨胀。中国股票市场的上证指数从2005年6月的最低点998点上涨到2007年10月最高点的6124点,同期A股指数也从最低点1047点上涨到的最高点6429点,最高涨幅为6倍多;房地产价格虽然在2005年之前就开始不断攀升,但当升值预期被市场普遍认可后,以北京、上海和深圳为首的大中城市房地产价格更是在原来的基础上进一步上涨2-3倍。而随后,中国政府从2007年10月开始的主动调控使资产价格大幅回落。上证指数曾跌至2008年9月的最低点1802点,同时,A股指数从最高点一度跌至2008年9月的最低点1892点,跌幅达到70%;2008年第二季度开始,房地产价格也出现了松动,继股票价格大跌之后房地产价格也处于风雨飘摇之中。
自汇率机制改革以来,人民币升值趋势不减,资产价格经历了从暴涨到大幅下跌的过程。2006年的流动性过剩的热钱还在到处涌动,这些流动性不仅一度造成了资产价格的大幅上涨,而且自2007年以来还造成了通货膨胀,该势头还保持到了2008年。国家实施多年的稳健的货币政策也转向从紧货币政策。同时,人民币名义汇率升值速度在加快,如果继续升值且幅度扩大,其对经济的潜在影响还无法估量。这些问题困扰着当局者,中国政府正处在经济发展的两难境地,也正面对前所未有的挑战。
这些现象引发出一系列问题和思考:为何本币升值总是伴随资产价格的大起大落?本币升值是通过何种机制作用于资产价格的?日本资产价格破灭对实体经济产生的严重影响不得不让人深思,而我国目前也已经出现了股票价格大幅下跌的局面。那么,我国是否也会重蹈覆辙?我们应该如何避免资产价格的下跌对实体经济的巨大冲击昵?
本文将从上述问题出发,通过理论探讨和实证分析研究人民币升值压力下中国资产价格大起大落的状况及成因,并分别就本币升值对我国股票市场和房地产市场的影响进行了细致思考。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了紧缩货币政策下可能产生的资产泡沫破灭及资产价格大幅下跌对宏观经济的影响,并提出相关解决方案。从某种程度上讲,资产价格的大幅下跌比大幅增长更可怕。如果中国无法妥善处理好资产价格大幅下跌的问题,不仅会影响到宏观经济的稳定和持续增长以及产业结构的调整等,还可能引发一系列的后遗症。中国不能重蹈日本之覆辙,因为那样的代价对中国这样一个发展中国家来说太大了,其后果是相当严重的,我国一定要加以防治。
全文除引言和第一章文献回顾之外,主要内容共分为四部分:
第一部分为现实篇,即第2章。在回顾人民币汇率机制改革的基础上,论述了人民币升值压力及其预期;接着探讨了由人民币升值预期带来的国际资本流动;最后描述国内资产价格全面膨胀和中国A股市场出现大幅回落以及房地产市场出现松动的现实情况。
第二部分为理论篇,即第3章。首先阐述了国际短期资本流动对货币供给的影响,接着在此基础上分析人民币升值导致的流动性,以及产生流动性的路径方式,试图从货币供给的宏观角度来分析人民币升值带来的新增货币的流动性对中国资产价格的影响及传导机制,建立了流动性对资产价格传导机制的框架模型,并从实证角度证明了流动性对资产价格的影响。
第三部分为实证篇,分为第4章和第5章。第4章是针对人民币升值对A股市场影响作了具体分析,然后对汇率与A股指数与各个行业指数分别进行实证分析。第5章则主要分析了汇率升值对中国房地产市场的影响,具体分析了人民币升值对房地产市场的影响。
第四部分为对策篇,是本文的最后2章。第6章首先阐述了自汇率机制改革以来,央行货币政策三大工具的实施,以及实施的紧缩货币政策对资产价格的影响;其次在回顾20世纪80年代末日本教训的基础上,总结紧缩的货币政策对资产价格的作用;最后论文了房地产价格大幅下跌对经济造成的伤害;第7章则是结论与政策建议,针对货币政策以及如何避免中国因货币升值和资产价格大幅下跌引致经济衰退的政策建议。
With the rapid growth of Chinese economy and the fast increase of foreign exchange reserves over the years, the purchasing power of RMB continues to rise, which results in subsequent pressures of RMB's appreciation. On July 21, 2005, the Central Bank of China announced that RMB would appreciate by 2%. Since then the decade-long "pegged" system of exchange rate has ended and shifted to a floating one based on supplies and demands, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the end-Sept of 2008, appreciation of RMB has been implemented for three years. The exchange rate between RMB and dollar has risen from 8.28:1 to 6.83:1, and the cumulative appreciation rate has reached 17.5%, the average yearly increase of 6%.
In the early period, asset price inflated substantially along with the appreciation of RMB. The A-share stock market index of China soared to its highest point of 6429 in October, 2007 from the lowest point of 1047 in June, 2005, with an increase of more than six times. While the price of real estates started to rise before the appreciation of RMB, and after the appreciation was generally recognized by the market, the prices of real estates of the big cities led by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have risen up by 2-3 times. Then, the Chinese government started the initiative to control asset prices from October, 2007. A stock index fell from its peak to 1892 point of September, 2008, with a decrease of 70%. After the second quarter of 2008, the real estate price also began to fall.
Since the exchange rate mechanism reform, the RMB appreciation trend has not weakened, and asset prices experienced a sharp decline from the surge. The excess liquidity was still flowing everywhere, the mobility was not only resulted in a substantial rise in asset prices, and sine 2007 also led to inflation, which maintain in 2008. Stable monetary policy used by authorities for many years has shifted to the tight monetary policy. Chinese government is facing a series of difficulties. With the acceleration of nominal exchange rate appreciation of RMB, if we continue to expand the range, its potential impact on the economy will be incalculable, so the Chinese government is now in a dilemma.
The inflation of asset prices along with the appreciation of the exchange rate is not exceptional, which can easily be found in other countries. The appreciation of the domestic currency and asset price bubbles are closely linked. Does the appreciation of the domestic currency really have an impact on asset prices? If so, what are the channels? After Japanese asset price bubbles burst, there was an economic depression which lasted for 10 years. Is there an association between economic recession and the burst of the bubble? Will China repeat the mistakes of the Japanese economy? How should we avoid the impact which the slumpin asset prices has on the real economy?
Starting from the above-mentioned issues, the present thesis attempts to analyze the pressure of RMB appreciation and asset price inflation based on theoretical discussions and empirical research. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on China's stock market and real estate market , further studies that tight monetary policy may result in the asset bubble burst which would impact on macroeconomic, and gives related solutions. To some extent, the sharp decline in asset prices is more terrible than the surge. If one government can not properly handle the sharp decline in asset prices, it will affect not only the macro-economic stability and sustained economic growth, but also the adjustment of industrial structure. China can not repeat the mistakes of Japan, because the cost for a developing country like China is too big and the consequences are very serious. China must take right actions.
引文
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