资源型城市低碳转型机理与调控对策研究
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摘要
在低碳时代背景下,低碳转型成为资源型城市可持续发展的必然选择。资源型城市作为在资源开发的基础上形成和发展起来的一种特殊类型的城市,为国家或地区发展做出了巨大的贡献,但是,现在许多资源型城市面临矿竭城衰和生态破坏的局面,一方面需要产业结构升级和重构,另一方面需要低碳排放,如何突破复杂的困局实现低碳转型成为其可持续发展的关键。因此探寻低碳转型机理及调控对策有助于相关部门制定科学的转型决策,促进资源型城市的可持续发展。
本文遵循现状剖析——机理研究——仿真模拟——政策建议的技术路线,综合运用低碳经济理论、系统动力学理论、生命周期理论、复杂性理论、演化经济学和城市可持续发展理论等基本理论和方法,从调查研究资源型城市的发展特征和碳排放现状出发,剖析资源型城市低碳转型的影响因素及其作用机制,进行系统动力学仿真,然后构建评价体系,并对双目标约束下的低碳转型情景进行预测,在此基础上提出促进资源型城市低碳转型的调控对策。主要包括以下研究内容:
(1)资源型城市的发展特征和碳排放现状分析。首先探讨了资源型城市发展特征,进而分析了资源型城市的碳排放现状,研究发现,资源型城市单位GDP能耗、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度远远高于全国平均水平,总体呈现“高能耗、高碳排放、高污染”的三高特征,具有转型的复杂性、耦合性与特殊性,同时受到经济增长目标约束、产业结构单一、历史文化制约、技术创新能力滞后、引导政策不健全及能源结构不合理等多种瓶颈因素的影响,面临巨大的碳减排压力。
(2)资源型城市低碳转型影响因素及其作用机理的剖析与实证检验。首先构建了影响因素理论模型,分析了低碳规制、结构优化、技术创新、能源效率四种驱动因素的作用机理及经济增长、人口两种抑制因素的作用机理。基于此,运用LMDI分析方法验证了各因素对资源型城市低碳转型的影响程度。研究发现,影响碳强度的主要驱动因素是能源强度因素,能源消费结构的影响微乎其微。碳排放量的增长态势主要源于经济发展因素的驱动。然后又运用面板数据模型,实证检验了各因素对不同类型资源型城市的影响程度。研究结论表明:不同类型资源型城市碳排放的显著影响因素有所差异,同一因素对不同资源型城市的影响程度也有所不同。所以,在促进资源型城市低碳转型进程中,应该针对不同资源型城市采取不同的调控对策和措施,才能取得更好的转型效果。
(3)资源型城市低碳转型的系统动力学仿真研究。通过构建资源型城市低碳转型影响因素作用的SD模型,模拟在经济稳定增长目标与碳减排目标约束下资源型城市低碳转型的动态演变过程,对各影响因素的冲击效应进行了敏感性和拟合分析。研究发现,GDP、人均GDP、人口数量、单位能耗均通过了真实性检验,可以作为未来预测的依据。依据影响因素设置了四种方案,通过灵敏度分析,得出高环境投资、低能源投资的方案四是最佳的选择,但是在实际运作过程应该四种方案协调实施。
(4)资源型城市低碳转型绩效评价和效率测度。首先运用层次分析法和模糊评判法,从经济效益、环境效益、社会效益三个方面构建了资源型城市低碳转型绩效的测度指标体系,以晋城为例进行了模糊评价。基于此,运用数据包络分析方法对不同类型的资源型城市进行了效率比较,结论表明,不同类型的资源型城市在减少碳排放的投入方向上是正确的,但是黑色冶金型城市、石油型城市、西部地区的资源型城市在资金投入上还需要进一步加强。
(5)资源型城市低碳转型的情景分析与路径依赖研究。低碳转型的路线图取决于科学的预测和分析,本文运用IPAT模型和情景分析方法,结合2020年碳强度下降40%的目标进行了多情景设定,指出低碳情景是资源型城市经济、社会、能源与环境系统协调发展最合适、最可行也是最现实的方案,进而提出了技术创新、产业结构优化、能源结构优化及政策引导四条路径。
(6)资源型城市低碳转型的调控对策研究。资源型城市应遵循全局谋划、因地制宜、最优效率、科学合理、系统协作的五方面调控原则,针对不同类型城市采取生态化、统筹化、柔性化、替代型、复合型等不同的调控模式,完善政策保障体系。在转型进程中,应加强低碳转型政策体系建设、推动传统高碳产业结构向低碳产业结构转变,建立低碳技术创新的激励机制,促进能源结构多元化发展,宣传低碳消费和经营观念,努力营造良好氛围,推动资源型城市低碳转型进程。
该论文有图71幅,表40个,参考文献211篇。
Under low carbon era, low carbon transformation becomes inevitable selection of sustainable development of resources-based cities. A resources-based city is a special city ,which forms and evolves on the basis of resource exploitation and makes great contribution to the development of countries or regions. But now many resources-based cities are facing the situation of dried coal mines, recessionary cities and ecological destruction. On the one hand, the upgrading of the industrial structure and reconstruction is needed; On the other hand, low carbon emission is required. How to break through the complex predicament is the key to carry out sustainable development of resources-based cities. So investigating the evolution and regulation mechanism of low carbon transformation can help related departments formulate scientific transformation decisions and promote sustainable development.
Such technical route is followed as from status and characteristics to mechanism analysis, and from modeling simulation to policy recommendations. A lot of basic theories and methods such as low carbon economy theory, system dynamics theory, life cycle theory, complexity theory, evolutionary economics ,urban sustainable development theory and so on are synthetically used. The influence factors and action mechanism of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are analyzed with the start of researching the development characteristics and the present situation of carbon emission of resources-based cities. Meanwhile, system dynamics simulation and scene analysis are conducted and the evaluation index system is established.
On the basis of these, some regulatory policies of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are put forward. First, the development characteristics and carbon emission status of resources-based cities are analyzed. Second, the influence factors and action mechanism of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are analyzed theoretically and tested empirically. Third, low carbon transformation in resources-based cities is simulated with system dynamics. Fourth, a performance evaluation index system of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities is constructed. Fifth, scene analysis and path dependence of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are studied. Finally, the regulation countermeasures of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are researched.
本文遵循现状剖析——机理研究——仿真模拟——政策建议的技术路线,综合运用低碳经济理论、系统动力学理论、生命周期理论、复杂性理论、演化经济学和城市可持续发展理论等基本理论和方法,从调查研究资源型城市的发展特征和碳排放现状出发,剖析资源型城市低碳转型的影响因素及其作用机制,进行系统动力学仿真,然后构建评价体系,并对双目标约束下的低碳转型情景进行预测,在此基础上提出促进资源型城市低碳转型的调控对策。主要包括以下研究内容:
(1)资源型城市的发展特征和碳排放现状分析。首先探讨了资源型城市发展特征,进而分析了资源型城市的碳排放现状,研究发现,资源型城市单位GDP能耗、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度远远高于全国平均水平,总体呈现“高能耗、高碳排放、高污染”的三高特征,具有转型的复杂性、耦合性与特殊性,同时受到经济增长目标约束、产业结构单一、历史文化制约、技术创新能力滞后、引导政策不健全及能源结构不合理等多种瓶颈因素的影响,面临巨大的碳减排压力。
(2)资源型城市低碳转型影响因素及其作用机理的剖析与实证检验。首先构建了影响因素理论模型,分析了低碳规制、结构优化、技术创新、能源效率四种驱动因素的作用机理及经济增长、人口两种抑制因素的作用机理。基于此,运用LMDI分析方法验证了各因素对资源型城市低碳转型的影响程度。研究发现,影响碳强度的主要驱动因素是能源强度因素,能源消费结构的影响微乎其微。碳排放量的增长态势主要源于经济发展因素的驱动。然后又运用面板数据模型,实证检验了各因素对不同类型资源型城市的影响程度。研究结论表明:不同类型资源型城市碳排放的显著影响因素有所差异,同一因素对不同资源型城市的影响程度也有所不同。所以,在促进资源型城市低碳转型进程中,应该针对不同资源型城市采取不同的调控对策和措施,才能取得更好的转型效果。
(3)资源型城市低碳转型的系统动力学仿真研究。通过构建资源型城市低碳转型影响因素作用的SD模型,模拟在经济稳定增长目标与碳减排目标约束下资源型城市低碳转型的动态演变过程,对各影响因素的冲击效应进行了敏感性和拟合分析。研究发现,GDP、人均GDP、人口数量、单位能耗均通过了真实性检验,可以作为未来预测的依据。依据影响因素设置了四种方案,通过灵敏度分析,得出高环境投资、低能源投资的方案四是最佳的选择,但是在实际运作过程应该四种方案协调实施。
(4)资源型城市低碳转型绩效评价和效率测度。首先运用层次分析法和模糊评判法,从经济效益、环境效益、社会效益三个方面构建了资源型城市低碳转型绩效的测度指标体系,以晋城为例进行了模糊评价。基于此,运用数据包络分析方法对不同类型的资源型城市进行了效率比较,结论表明,不同类型的资源型城市在减少碳排放的投入方向上是正确的,但是黑色冶金型城市、石油型城市、西部地区的资源型城市在资金投入上还需要进一步加强。
(5)资源型城市低碳转型的情景分析与路径依赖研究。低碳转型的路线图取决于科学的预测和分析,本文运用IPAT模型和情景分析方法,结合2020年碳强度下降40%的目标进行了多情景设定,指出低碳情景是资源型城市经济、社会、能源与环境系统协调发展最合适、最可行也是最现实的方案,进而提出了技术创新、产业结构优化、能源结构优化及政策引导四条路径。
(6)资源型城市低碳转型的调控对策研究。资源型城市应遵循全局谋划、因地制宜、最优效率、科学合理、系统协作的五方面调控原则,针对不同类型城市采取生态化、统筹化、柔性化、替代型、复合型等不同的调控模式,完善政策保障体系。在转型进程中,应加强低碳转型政策体系建设、推动传统高碳产业结构向低碳产业结构转变,建立低碳技术创新的激励机制,促进能源结构多元化发展,宣传低碳消费和经营观念,努力营造良好氛围,推动资源型城市低碳转型进程。
该论文有图71幅,表40个,参考文献211篇。
Under low carbon era, low carbon transformation becomes inevitable selection of sustainable development of resources-based cities. A resources-based city is a special city ,which forms and evolves on the basis of resource exploitation and makes great contribution to the development of countries or regions. But now many resources-based cities are facing the situation of dried coal mines, recessionary cities and ecological destruction. On the one hand, the upgrading of the industrial structure and reconstruction is needed; On the other hand, low carbon emission is required. How to break through the complex predicament is the key to carry out sustainable development of resources-based cities. So investigating the evolution and regulation mechanism of low carbon transformation can help related departments formulate scientific transformation decisions and promote sustainable development.
Such technical route is followed as from status and characteristics to mechanism analysis, and from modeling simulation to policy recommendations. A lot of basic theories and methods such as low carbon economy theory, system dynamics theory, life cycle theory, complexity theory, evolutionary economics ,urban sustainable development theory and so on are synthetically used. The influence factors and action mechanism of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are analyzed with the start of researching the development characteristics and the present situation of carbon emission of resources-based cities. Meanwhile, system dynamics simulation and scene analysis are conducted and the evaluation index system is established.
On the basis of these, some regulatory policies of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are put forward. First, the development characteristics and carbon emission status of resources-based cities are analyzed. Second, the influence factors and action mechanism of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are analyzed theoretically and tested empirically. Third, low carbon transformation in resources-based cities is simulated with system dynamics. Fourth, a performance evaluation index system of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities is constructed. Fifth, scene analysis and path dependence of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are studied. Finally, the regulation countermeasures of low carbon transformation in resources-based cities are researched.
引文
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