基于农户尺度的半干旱区集雨生态农业技术体系的行为响应机理及影响因素分析
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摘要
本文基于农户微观经济主体的效用最大化动机的角度，用社会学、经济学等理论分析和定量方法揭示黄土高原半干旱区集水型生态农业技术体系—集水补灌、草田轮作、禁牧舍饲技术与退耕还草政策的小规模农户的行为响应机理及影响因素，筛选出决定性影响变量，为黄土沟壑区可持续发展提供微观理论依据。结论与建议如下：
1．农户是充满理性的，农户对生态技术或政策的行为响应是基于黄土高原半干旱区生计理性之上的适应特定环境和社会经济结构的反应。如果不把半干旱区农户的生计系统现实纳入治理框架，其生态技术或政策的推行必将遭遇农户生计现实的反弹而导致低效或无效。因此集水型生态农业技术体系应将研究主体从以生态环境为本转向以农户为导向，通过提升农户的“发展能力”去促使技术或政策的可持续采纳或推行。
2．在社区入户调查等基础上用定量方法揭示了农户对集雨补灌技术行为响应的因素，结果表明：户主年龄、文化程度及主观满意度、家庭劳动力数量、作物种类等变量与采纳意愿呈显著正相关度。农户人力资本质量(如教育水平、技能)与数量(劳动力)是发展集雨补灌农业的根本；农户对技术的满意度主要取决于该技术所产生的经济效益；应与农业结构调整相结合，鼓励种植高附加值经济作物，以提高农户收益，刺激农民采纳的积极性和主动性。同时政策与制度变量如技术推广、培训、信贷、补贴补助等政策配套机制也显示了重要的正向促进作用。还显示了退耕还草与集水农业是互动关系，能起到以经济效益启动生态效益的作用；另外，集水灌溉技术的区位适宜性也很重要。如距离变量显示，水窖距离家的距离越远，放弃使用该技术的可能性就越大；村水土流失状况变量显示，集雨补灌技术面向水土高流失区，可使节水农业技术的推广达到最佳效果。
3．在社区入户调查等基础上用定量方法揭示了农户对草田轮作技术的行为响应机理，结果表明：该技术的采纳与农户的微观变量如户主年龄、家庭规模、土地规模、主观满意态度等变量呈显著正相关；只有解决好农户的永久性生存与增收问题，才有助于培养农户对农田水保技术的满意度，提高采纳的自愿性；农户拥有羊的数量、退耕还草等变量与技术的采纳呈显著正相关，草田轮作应与退耕还草、禁牧舍饲组装集成；结果也显示了推广服务及培训、参与式制度、信用制度能显著影响农户采纳草田轮作技术的意愿，为此，需要建立宏观政府支持启动与微观主体利益诱导相结合的双向驱动机制；结果还显示：坡度越大的耕地采用水土保持的积极性要比相对平缓的台地大；喜好乡土知识的农户对该技术更有兴趣；对水土流失的认知越高，农户采纳草田轮作技术的概率也越大。
4．在调研的基础上，以计量经济学模型分析了半干旱区影响农户自愿采纳舍饲圈养技术的社会经济因素，得出结论：户主的文化程度越高，家庭劳动力数量和耕地越多，采纳舍饲的意愿越高；农民对禁牧舍饲技术的满意度主要取决于该技术所产生的经济效益，是农户采纳该技术的动力；应坚持经济效益优先，生态效益为基础的原则，提高农户管理能力、技术水平，促进“农户能力建设”；家庭收入低、资金短缺是农户不愿采纳舍饲的重要原因；燃料变量有显著影响，解决农户燃料、饲料等问题是发展圈养舍饲的先导条件，否则技术的应用会遭遇生计现实的反弹；模型还显示，如果仍沿用当地劣种牲畜，农户舍饲圈养的兴趣就不大。在散养到圈养方式转变中，也要推进优质种引进和土种羊改良，既能保持当地土种羊适应性强的特性，又能发挥新品种生长速度快、效益高的优势，也就能得到农户积极的响应。草田轮作、退耕还草变量对采纳舍饲行为有显著影响，说明了退耕还草、草田轮作、舍饲养畜三者是互动与互相促进的关系，通过草田轮作，将种植业由传统的“粮食作物—经济作物”二元结构转化成“粮食作物—经济作物—饲料作物”三元结构，这是农户应对生计脆弱，实施避灾型舍饲畜牧的最佳选择。
5．随着退耕补助期限将满，退耕户会不会迫于生计压力砍树毁草复耕，这是一个很现实的问题。本文在充分考虑退耕后农户生计可持续性的基础上，甄别影响毁草返耕决策关键点，给出确保退耕最终效果实现的路径。结论与建议如下：“可持续性生计框架”为黄土沟壑区退耕还草政策可持续性的研究提供了一个新的视角与手段，政策的立足点应该是“可持续生计”。模型结果显示，户主的年龄、教育程度、打工变量与退耕决策显著正相关，农户存在的“低素质屏障效应”，会阻碍收入途径转移，增加返耕的可能性；家庭供养人口越多，返耕可能性越大，为此可考虑将退耕政策与农村社会保障相结合；模型还显示，越是拥有良好人际关系网络(即“社会资本”)的农户，退耕后构建可持续生计策略的能力就越强，返耕可能性就越小；另外，政策与制度支持方面的变量与退耕决策呈显著正相关，补贴、贷款、技术等能提高农户运用资产组合谋求生计的能力；种苗适宜性变量也是影响可持续退耕的制约因素；从未来看，退耕成果的保持仍要看农户对未来退耕收益的预期；要使退耕不出现反弹，核心是要发展后续产业；农户养羊数量、采纳集雨补灌变量与可持续退耕决策呈显著正相关。还显示，退耕后农户如果积极进行基本农田建设，会减少返耕决策的可能性，因此要大力推进基本农田建设，使之具有生存方面的保障功能；本文认为，集水型生态农业模式指出了一条解决可持续生计的出路—实施退耕还草与圈养畜牧、草田轮作、集雨补灌互动战略。集雨补灌技术可大幅度提高粮食单产，弥补退耕引起的粮食减产，为生态建设的可持续发展提供后劲，同时还能降低干旱成灾风险，促进区域农业可持续发展。在此配置模式下，调整农业结构，推广粮草轮作，发展舍饲畜牧，建立“粮—草—经”模式，实现退耕区的产业转型，是巩固退耕还草工程成果的重要途径。
本文认为，农户生计的贫困与脆弱、技术的收益性、社会性资本的短缺以及人力资本的缺失等现实因素是影响农户采纳生态农业技术体系决策的主要因素，因此只有将贫穷农户的可持续生计系统纳入“生态治理政策／农业科技研发推广”的框架中，同时进行“农户能力”建设，才能促进生态恢复与重建技术或政策的可持续发展。本文既有规范性理论分析，又有实证研究，更具微观研究尺度的特色，在理论与应用上具有创新性。
In view of the optimum effect for a farmer household to be a micro-economic individual, with the theoretical analysis of economics, sociology, and the quantitative analysis, this paper evaluates the determinants of farmers'decisions to adopt " Rainwater harvesting and supplementary irrigation technology (RHSIT) "、" Pasture-crop rotation (PCR)"、" Shed-feeding"、"Grain-for-Green project" and its elasticity of adoption in the rain-fed farming systems in the semiarid areas of Loess Plateau.The paper selects decisive variables in order to provide micro-theoretical evidence for sustainable development in the semiarid areas. Some concludes and suggestions are as follows:
Fanners are full rational, their adoption decision for technologies and polices is the results of their livelihood within specific conditions and social economic structures in the semiarid areas.
The results indicate that 12 variables are significant in explaining farmers' adoption of RHSIT. Farmers' educational background,active labor force size, contact with extension, participation in the Grain-for-Green project,and positive attitudes towards RHSIT、the diversity of irrigated crops are some of the variables that have significantly positive effects on adoption of RHSIT, while farmer's age and distance from water storage tanks to farmers' dwellings have significantly negative correlation with adoption. The probability of adoption also increases with increased targeting of institutional variables: credit obtained, assistance obtained, and technical training received. Farmers in villagesthat have more erosion problems are more likely to adopt RHSIT. Variables such as family size, off-farm activity, level of family income, risk preference, and land tenure do not significantly influence adoption. This information will help prioritize the factors that affect adoption decisions and provide insight on pathways to increase the adoption of RHSIT.
Using a logistic regression model, this paper evaluated the determinants of adoption of PCR among smallholder farmers in rain-fed farming systems in the Loess hilly area of the Loess Plateau. Results indicated that socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, and farm related factors and institutional factors, significantly affect their decision regarding adoption of PCR. Firstly, the age of the farmers, the size of their family, the number of ruminants owned, and the fanners' attitudes towards PCR have significant positive effects on the adoption of PCR, where the level of the family income is negative. Secondly, the slope of the field, and fallow practice variables also play a critical role in the adoption of PCR, suggesting the importance of targeting the promotion of PCR to farmers in areas with problems of soil erosion. The analysis also showed that farmers' perception of the problem of soil erosion is positively correlated, having the most significant impact with the highest estimated elasticity. Thirdly, the institutional variables, which are represented by contacts with extension workshops, a participatory approach, the credit and training facilities obtained, and participation in the Grain-for-Green project (PGFG) all have significant positive effects on the adoption of PCR. On the other hand, participation in the rainwater-harvesting project and in the supplementary irrigation project did not show any correlation to the adoption of PCR by farmers.
With the Logistic regression, this paper evaluates some social economic factors for farmers to adopt shed-feeding technology, the conclusions are: the higher the farmers' educational level and the more the farmers' numbers of work power, the easier for farmers to adopt shed-feeding technology; there are more arable lands, there are preferable conditions for Grain-for-Pasture. Whether or not farmers are satisfied with the shed-feeding technology, it depends on the effective results of application with the shed-feeding technology; the economic effects are fundamental reasons and drivers for farmers to adopt technologies. The principles for preferable economic benefits and basic ecologic effects should be followed and it is quite material for farmer to promote their management, technologies. Both the low-income and shortage of funds result in the failure for farmer to adopt the shed-feeding, there are obvious effects in fuel variables on farmers. So factors such as fuels, forages are preferable conditions for the development of shed-feeding, or the utilization of technology will meet the reaction of livelihood reality. In respect of results, without the application of improved breeding sheep, fanners would have no interesting. There exists significant influence of the variables of Pasture-crop rotation\Grain-for-Green project,this explain the reason why the three variables of Grain-for-Green project、pasture-crop rotation、shed-feeding interact and. promote one anther.With the rotation, the structure of plantation will turn the two elements of grain -economic crops into the three elements of "grain - economic crops -forage". This will be the optimum for farmers to deal with fragile livelihood and carry out livestock husbandry without calamity.
With the expiration of allowances for Grain-for-Green project, it will turn out a practical problem for farmers to restore cultivation on theforests and grassland (Green-for-Grain) for their livelihood again. Therefore, on consideration of sustainable livelihood and of selection of key policies those have effect on decision regarding adoption of destroying forest and grassland to farm; an approach can be found for the final realization of Grain-for-Green, conclusions and suggestions are as follows: Sustainable livelihood framework supplies a new view and a method for the research on sustainable of Grain-for-Green project, the base stone of Grain-for-Green project should be sustainable livelihood.
In respect of results of the mode, there exists relationship between fundamental farmland variable and adoption of destroying forest and grassland to farm, therefore, the farmland eco-environmental construction should be made to secure livelihood of farmers. There are obviously relative among the farmers' variables of age, education, and non-farm employment, it shows that the lower-quality screen effect of farmers will prevent the transfer of income to increase possibility of destroying forest and grassland to farm. Results show that the more the personnel in a family, the more possibility the destroying forest (grassland). So it should be considered that combination between Grain-for-Green project and social securities.
Results show that the more the farmers who have good relationship, i.e. social capital, the more the strength for farmers to put the sustainable livelihoods strategy into practice. Variables between policies and its support are positive relative. Allowances, loans, and technologies can promote abilities for farmers to make use of combined funds. Nursery for its adoption is the restrict factor that has influence on sustainable of Grain-for-Green project. Allowances variable shows the sustainable of Grain-for-Green will depend on the prospect of farmers for their future income. The development of follow-up industry of conversion of cropland to forest and grassland will prevent the destroying forest (grassland). The numbers of sheep kept by farmers are positively relative to the rainwater harvesting supplementary irrigation. The mode of ecologic agriculture with rainwater harvesting put forward a solution to sustainable livelihood, an interactive method composed of RHSIT, PCR, and Shed-feding、Grain-for-Green Project. Rainwater Harvesting Supplementary Irrigation can increase the grain yield per unit by large scale and offset the grain yield reduction due to grain-for-green, providing the drive for sustainable improvement. Meanwhile, Rainwater Harvesting Agriculture can reduce the risk of drought disaster and facilitate the sustainable improvement of the regional agriculture as well. Under this mode, the rearrangement of agricultural structure, promotion of pasture-crop rotation, the development of mode among shed-feeding, the formation of grain-grass-cash crop, the transfer of industries structure, are important means for Grain-for-Green project.
This paper suggested that the farmers make decisions on whether to adopt ecological agriculture system based on the facts of poverty and weakness of sustainable livelihood, the economic return on the technology, the shortage of social overhead capital, and the lack of human resources. Therefore, it is possible to realize the sustainable development of technology to bring the sustainable livelihood of the poverty-stricken fanners into the framework of ecological control policy and agricultural technology R&D and extension, and to build the capability of the farmers. Consisted of normative theory analysis and positive research, this paper is characterized of microcosmic research, which enables it innovation both theoretically and practically.
1．农户是充满理性的，农户对生态技术或政策的行为响应是基于黄土高原半干旱区生计理性之上的适应特定环境和社会经济结构的反应。如果不把半干旱区农户的生计系统现实纳入治理框架，其生态技术或政策的推行必将遭遇农户生计现实的反弹而导致低效或无效。因此集水型生态农业技术体系应将研究主体从以生态环境为本转向以农户为导向，通过提升农户的“发展能力”去促使技术或政策的可持续采纳或推行。
2．在社区入户调查等基础上用定量方法揭示了农户对集雨补灌技术行为响应的因素，结果表明：户主年龄、文化程度及主观满意度、家庭劳动力数量、作物种类等变量与采纳意愿呈显著正相关度。农户人力资本质量(如教育水平、技能)与数量(劳动力)是发展集雨补灌农业的根本；农户对技术的满意度主要取决于该技术所产生的经济效益；应与农业结构调整相结合，鼓励种植高附加值经济作物，以提高农户收益，刺激农民采纳的积极性和主动性。同时政策与制度变量如技术推广、培训、信贷、补贴补助等政策配套机制也显示了重要的正向促进作用。还显示了退耕还草与集水农业是互动关系，能起到以经济效益启动生态效益的作用；另外，集水灌溉技术的区位适宜性也很重要。如距离变量显示，水窖距离家的距离越远，放弃使用该技术的可能性就越大；村水土流失状况变量显示，集雨补灌技术面向水土高流失区，可使节水农业技术的推广达到最佳效果。
3．在社区入户调查等基础上用定量方法揭示了农户对草田轮作技术的行为响应机理，结果表明：该技术的采纳与农户的微观变量如户主年龄、家庭规模、土地规模、主观满意态度等变量呈显著正相关；只有解决好农户的永久性生存与增收问题，才有助于培养农户对农田水保技术的满意度，提高采纳的自愿性；农户拥有羊的数量、退耕还草等变量与技术的采纳呈显著正相关，草田轮作应与退耕还草、禁牧舍饲组装集成；结果也显示了推广服务及培训、参与式制度、信用制度能显著影响农户采纳草田轮作技术的意愿，为此，需要建立宏观政府支持启动与微观主体利益诱导相结合的双向驱动机制；结果还显示：坡度越大的耕地采用水土保持的积极性要比相对平缓的台地大；喜好乡土知识的农户对该技术更有兴趣；对水土流失的认知越高，农户采纳草田轮作技术的概率也越大。
4．在调研的基础上，以计量经济学模型分析了半干旱区影响农户自愿采纳舍饲圈养技术的社会经济因素，得出结论：户主的文化程度越高，家庭劳动力数量和耕地越多，采纳舍饲的意愿越高；农民对禁牧舍饲技术的满意度主要取决于该技术所产生的经济效益，是农户采纳该技术的动力；应坚持经济效益优先，生态效益为基础的原则，提高农户管理能力、技术水平，促进“农户能力建设”；家庭收入低、资金短缺是农户不愿采纳舍饲的重要原因；燃料变量有显著影响，解决农户燃料、饲料等问题是发展圈养舍饲的先导条件，否则技术的应用会遭遇生计现实的反弹；模型还显示，如果仍沿用当地劣种牲畜，农户舍饲圈养的兴趣就不大。在散养到圈养方式转变中，也要推进优质种引进和土种羊改良，既能保持当地土种羊适应性强的特性，又能发挥新品种生长速度快、效益高的优势，也就能得到农户积极的响应。草田轮作、退耕还草变量对采纳舍饲行为有显著影响，说明了退耕还草、草田轮作、舍饲养畜三者是互动与互相促进的关系，通过草田轮作，将种植业由传统的“粮食作物—经济作物”二元结构转化成“粮食作物—经济作物—饲料作物”三元结构，这是农户应对生计脆弱，实施避灾型舍饲畜牧的最佳选择。
5．随着退耕补助期限将满，退耕户会不会迫于生计压力砍树毁草复耕，这是一个很现实的问题。本文在充分考虑退耕后农户生计可持续性的基础上，甄别影响毁草返耕决策关键点，给出确保退耕最终效果实现的路径。结论与建议如下：“可持续性生计框架”为黄土沟壑区退耕还草政策可持续性的研究提供了一个新的视角与手段，政策的立足点应该是“可持续生计”。模型结果显示，户主的年龄、教育程度、打工变量与退耕决策显著正相关，农户存在的“低素质屏障效应”，会阻碍收入途径转移，增加返耕的可能性；家庭供养人口越多，返耕可能性越大，为此可考虑将退耕政策与农村社会保障相结合；模型还显示，越是拥有良好人际关系网络(即“社会资本”)的农户，退耕后构建可持续生计策略的能力就越强，返耕可能性就越小；另外，政策与制度支持方面的变量与退耕决策呈显著正相关，补贴、贷款、技术等能提高农户运用资产组合谋求生计的能力；种苗适宜性变量也是影响可持续退耕的制约因素；从未来看，退耕成果的保持仍要看农户对未来退耕收益的预期；要使退耕不出现反弹，核心是要发展后续产业；农户养羊数量、采纳集雨补灌变量与可持续退耕决策呈显著正相关。还显示，退耕后农户如果积极进行基本农田建设，会减少返耕决策的可能性，因此要大力推进基本农田建设，使之具有生存方面的保障功能；本文认为，集水型生态农业模式指出了一条解决可持续生计的出路—实施退耕还草与圈养畜牧、草田轮作、集雨补灌互动战略。集雨补灌技术可大幅度提高粮食单产，弥补退耕引起的粮食减产，为生态建设的可持续发展提供后劲，同时还能降低干旱成灾风险，促进区域农业可持续发展。在此配置模式下，调整农业结构，推广粮草轮作，发展舍饲畜牧，建立“粮—草—经”模式，实现退耕区的产业转型，是巩固退耕还草工程成果的重要途径。
本文认为，农户生计的贫困与脆弱、技术的收益性、社会性资本的短缺以及人力资本的缺失等现实因素是影响农户采纳生态农业技术体系决策的主要因素，因此只有将贫穷农户的可持续生计系统纳入“生态治理政策／农业科技研发推广”的框架中，同时进行“农户能力”建设，才能促进生态恢复与重建技术或政策的可持续发展。本文既有规范性理论分析，又有实证研究，更具微观研究尺度的特色，在理论与应用上具有创新性。
In view of the optimum effect for a farmer household to be a micro-economic individual, with the theoretical analysis of economics, sociology, and the quantitative analysis, this paper evaluates the determinants of farmers'decisions to adopt " Rainwater harvesting and supplementary irrigation technology (RHSIT) "、" Pasture-crop rotation (PCR)"、" Shed-feeding"、"Grain-for-Green project" and its elasticity of adoption in the rain-fed farming systems in the semiarid areas of Loess Plateau.The paper selects decisive variables in order to provide micro-theoretical evidence for sustainable development in the semiarid areas. Some concludes and suggestions are as follows:
Fanners are full rational, their adoption decision for technologies and polices is the results of their livelihood within specific conditions and social economic structures in the semiarid areas.
The results indicate that 12 variables are significant in explaining farmers' adoption of RHSIT. Farmers' educational background,active labor force size, contact with extension, participation in the Grain-for-Green project,and positive attitudes towards RHSIT、the diversity of irrigated crops are some of the variables that have significantly positive effects on adoption of RHSIT, while farmer's age and distance from water storage tanks to farmers' dwellings have significantly negative correlation with adoption. The probability of adoption also increases with increased targeting of institutional variables: credit obtained, assistance obtained, and technical training received. Farmers in villagesthat have more erosion problems are more likely to adopt RHSIT. Variables such as family size, off-farm activity, level of family income, risk preference, and land tenure do not significantly influence adoption. This information will help prioritize the factors that affect adoption decisions and provide insight on pathways to increase the adoption of RHSIT.
Using a logistic regression model, this paper evaluated the determinants of adoption of PCR among smallholder farmers in rain-fed farming systems in the Loess hilly area of the Loess Plateau. Results indicated that socio-economic characteristics of the farmers, and farm related factors and institutional factors, significantly affect their decision regarding adoption of PCR. Firstly, the age of the farmers, the size of their family, the number of ruminants owned, and the fanners' attitudes towards PCR have significant positive effects on the adoption of PCR, where the level of the family income is negative. Secondly, the slope of the field, and fallow practice variables also play a critical role in the adoption of PCR, suggesting the importance of targeting the promotion of PCR to farmers in areas with problems of soil erosion. The analysis also showed that farmers' perception of the problem of soil erosion is positively correlated, having the most significant impact with the highest estimated elasticity. Thirdly, the institutional variables, which are represented by contacts with extension workshops, a participatory approach, the credit and training facilities obtained, and participation in the Grain-for-Green project (PGFG) all have significant positive effects on the adoption of PCR. On the other hand, participation in the rainwater-harvesting project and in the supplementary irrigation project did not show any correlation to the adoption of PCR by farmers.
With the Logistic regression, this paper evaluates some social economic factors for farmers to adopt shed-feeding technology, the conclusions are: the higher the farmers' educational level and the more the farmers' numbers of work power, the easier for farmers to adopt shed-feeding technology; there are more arable lands, there are preferable conditions for Grain-for-Pasture. Whether or not farmers are satisfied with the shed-feeding technology, it depends on the effective results of application with the shed-feeding technology; the economic effects are fundamental reasons and drivers for farmers to adopt technologies. The principles for preferable economic benefits and basic ecologic effects should be followed and it is quite material for farmer to promote their management, technologies. Both the low-income and shortage of funds result in the failure for farmer to adopt the shed-feeding, there are obvious effects in fuel variables on farmers. So factors such as fuels, forages are preferable conditions for the development of shed-feeding, or the utilization of technology will meet the reaction of livelihood reality. In respect of results, without the application of improved breeding sheep, fanners would have no interesting. There exists significant influence of the variables of Pasture-crop rotation\Grain-for-Green project,this explain the reason why the three variables of Grain-for-Green project、pasture-crop rotation、shed-feeding interact and. promote one anther.With the rotation, the structure of plantation will turn the two elements of grain -economic crops into the three elements of "grain - economic crops -forage". This will be the optimum for farmers to deal with fragile livelihood and carry out livestock husbandry without calamity.
With the expiration of allowances for Grain-for-Green project, it will turn out a practical problem for farmers to restore cultivation on theforests and grassland (Green-for-Grain) for their livelihood again. Therefore, on consideration of sustainable livelihood and of selection of key policies those have effect on decision regarding adoption of destroying forest and grassland to farm; an approach can be found for the final realization of Grain-for-Green, conclusions and suggestions are as follows: Sustainable livelihood framework supplies a new view and a method for the research on sustainable of Grain-for-Green project, the base stone of Grain-for-Green project should be sustainable livelihood.
In respect of results of the mode, there exists relationship between fundamental farmland variable and adoption of destroying forest and grassland to farm, therefore, the farmland eco-environmental construction should be made to secure livelihood of farmers. There are obviously relative among the farmers' variables of age, education, and non-farm employment, it shows that the lower-quality screen effect of farmers will prevent the transfer of income to increase possibility of destroying forest and grassland to farm. Results show that the more the personnel in a family, the more possibility the destroying forest (grassland). So it should be considered that combination between Grain-for-Green project and social securities.
Results show that the more the farmers who have good relationship, i.e. social capital, the more the strength for farmers to put the sustainable livelihoods strategy into practice. Variables between policies and its support are positive relative. Allowances, loans, and technologies can promote abilities for farmers to make use of combined funds. Nursery for its adoption is the restrict factor that has influence on sustainable of Grain-for-Green project. Allowances variable shows the sustainable of Grain-for-Green will depend on the prospect of farmers for their future income. The development of follow-up industry of conversion of cropland to forest and grassland will prevent the destroying forest (grassland). The numbers of sheep kept by farmers are positively relative to the rainwater harvesting supplementary irrigation. The mode of ecologic agriculture with rainwater harvesting put forward a solution to sustainable livelihood, an interactive method composed of RHSIT, PCR, and Shed-feding、Grain-for-Green Project. Rainwater Harvesting Supplementary Irrigation can increase the grain yield per unit by large scale and offset the grain yield reduction due to grain-for-green, providing the drive for sustainable improvement. Meanwhile, Rainwater Harvesting Agriculture can reduce the risk of drought disaster and facilitate the sustainable improvement of the regional agriculture as well. Under this mode, the rearrangement of agricultural structure, promotion of pasture-crop rotation, the development of mode among shed-feeding, the formation of grain-grass-cash crop, the transfer of industries structure, are important means for Grain-for-Green project.
This paper suggested that the farmers make decisions on whether to adopt ecological agriculture system based on the facts of poverty and weakness of sustainable livelihood, the economic return on the technology, the shortage of social overhead capital, and the lack of human resources. Therefore, it is possible to realize the sustainable development of technology to bring the sustainable livelihood of the poverty-stricken fanners into the framework of ecological control policy and agricultural technology R&D and extension, and to build the capability of the farmers. Consisted of normative theory analysis and positive research, this paper is characterized of microcosmic research, which enables it innovation both theoretically and practically.
引文
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