基于复杂网络理论的产业网络研究
|
摘要
随着全球经济分工的不断深化和扩展,企业和相关组织之间的网络化特征越来越明显；因而从网络角度研究产业内部及产业之间的关系及它们对经济主体的影响,逐渐成为进行国民经济体系研究的重要内容。实际上国民经济系统都可以被描述成为一个由许多性质不同的但又相互发生联系的生产部门和消费部门所构成的体系,这种普遍的相互依赖关系形成了一个产业部门关联网络,简称产业网络。
本文基于复杂网络理论,将国民系统中的每个产业看作一个点,、每个产业之间的相互联系(投入或产出)看成一条边,则根据国民经济各产业间复杂的产品投入产出价值量的关系建立起一个加权、有向的产业网络,并着重对产业网络的复杂特性和动态演化等展开研究工作。
首先,本文对投入产出的基本概念、产生、发展和研究内容作了一个简单的回顾,并对目前产业网络的研究现状进行概述和分析,由此提出了基于产品投入产出价值量的产业网络模型；同时,又对复杂网络目前的研究内容和研究现状做了综述,为本文的研究工作提供了理论支持。
其次,建立了一个基于产品投入产出价值量的产业网络模型,并把国民经济核算司公布的《2007年中国投入产出表》中的数据作为实证研究对象建立产业网络,针对产业网络的特征量：度分布(入度和出度)、权分布(边权和点权)聚类系数和平均路径长度,进行实证分析,以此研究每个行业之间运行的效率,分析各行业之间的相互运作的紧密程度和信息分享的强度。
再次,针对实证产业网络利用随机攻击、度值标准攻击和介数标准攻击进行抗毁性分析和研究,并提出了产业网络的抗毁性改进策略,以提高整个产业系统的运作效率,保障国民经济的持续、稳定、健康增长。
然后,在基于产业网络的加权和有向特性,在原有K-means算法的基础上提出了一种加权聚点和加权路径的K-means聚类算法,结合模块值作为确认社团数量的标准,对产业网络进行社团的划分,并对划分成的5个社团建立起社团关联度矩阵,分析社团间的投入产出关系。
最后,尝试性地用复杂网络理论对国民经济核算司发布的2007年、2002年和1997年的中国投入产出表的数据进行复杂特性分析,挖掘出新的内容和产业演变的规律,提出动态产业网络特征量规律模型,为国家宏观政策的制定和产业政策的调控起参考作用。
With deepening and expand of the global economic division, networknization between enterprises is more and more obvious; in that case, studying the relationship within the industry and between the industry and their influence on the economic subject from the perspective of network, is becoming the important research topics for national economic system gradually. In fact national economic system can be described by the system which includes the production departments and consumption departments with different natures and mutual relationship, which formed an association networks of industrial departments, that called industrial networks for short.
This paper is based on the complex networks theory, makes each industry as a point and the relationship(input-output) between industres as an edge, then we establish a weighted and directed networks, and with the focus on the complex characteristics and industrial networks dynamic evolution etc.launches out nto research work.
First of all, this paper gives a simple review on the basic concept of input-output, and a summary and analysis about the current industry networks study status, and then presents industrial networks model based on the input-output; Meanwhile, the current study content is summarized about complex networks, which provides theoretical support for this paper.
Secondly, this paper is to establish a industrial networks model based on the product magnitude of value, after that a industrial networks is established on published department of national economic accounting. Then the paper gives a characteristic empirical analysis for industrial networks, to study every industry operating efficiency and so on.
Thirdly, with random, degree value standard and betweenness value standard to attack the industrial networks, we can have an anti-destroying ability analysis and research, and put forward improvement strategies of the industrial networks to raise the entire the operating efficiency of industry system.
Fourthly based on the weighted and directed characteristics, this paper put forward an improved K-means clustering algorithm, and with combining modularity industrial networks is partitioned into five communities, and established communities relational matrix to analysis the input-output relationships between communities.
Finally, this paper attempts to analyze complex characteristics with input-output tables of china in 2007,2002 and 1997, find out new contents and evolution regularity of industry, and put forward the rule model of dynamic networks characteristic.
本文基于复杂网络理论,将国民系统中的每个产业看作一个点,、每个产业之间的相互联系(投入或产出)看成一条边,则根据国民经济各产业间复杂的产品投入产出价值量的关系建立起一个加权、有向的产业网络,并着重对产业网络的复杂特性和动态演化等展开研究工作。
首先,本文对投入产出的基本概念、产生、发展和研究内容作了一个简单的回顾,并对目前产业网络的研究现状进行概述和分析,由此提出了基于产品投入产出价值量的产业网络模型；同时,又对复杂网络目前的研究内容和研究现状做了综述,为本文的研究工作提供了理论支持。
其次,建立了一个基于产品投入产出价值量的产业网络模型,并把国民经济核算司公布的《2007年中国投入产出表》中的数据作为实证研究对象建立产业网络,针对产业网络的特征量：度分布(入度和出度)、权分布(边权和点权)聚类系数和平均路径长度,进行实证分析,以此研究每个行业之间运行的效率,分析各行业之间的相互运作的紧密程度和信息分享的强度。
再次,针对实证产业网络利用随机攻击、度值标准攻击和介数标准攻击进行抗毁性分析和研究,并提出了产业网络的抗毁性改进策略,以提高整个产业系统的运作效率,保障国民经济的持续、稳定、健康增长。
然后,在基于产业网络的加权和有向特性,在原有K-means算法的基础上提出了一种加权聚点和加权路径的K-means聚类算法,结合模块值作为确认社团数量的标准,对产业网络进行社团的划分,并对划分成的5个社团建立起社团关联度矩阵,分析社团间的投入产出关系。
最后,尝试性地用复杂网络理论对国民经济核算司发布的2007年、2002年和1997年的中国投入产出表的数据进行复杂特性分析,挖掘出新的内容和产业演变的规律,提出动态产业网络特征量规律模型,为国家宏观政策的制定和产业政策的调控起参考作用。
With deepening and expand of the global economic division, networknization between enterprises is more and more obvious; in that case, studying the relationship within the industry and between the industry and their influence on the economic subject from the perspective of network, is becoming the important research topics for national economic system gradually. In fact national economic system can be described by the system which includes the production departments and consumption departments with different natures and mutual relationship, which formed an association networks of industrial departments, that called industrial networks for short.
This paper is based on the complex networks theory, makes each industry as a point and the relationship(input-output) between industres as an edge, then we establish a weighted and directed networks, and with the focus on the complex characteristics and industrial networks dynamic evolution etc.launches out nto research work.
First of all, this paper gives a simple review on the basic concept of input-output, and a summary and analysis about the current industry networks study status, and then presents industrial networks model based on the input-output; Meanwhile, the current study content is summarized about complex networks, which provides theoretical support for this paper.
Secondly, this paper is to establish a industrial networks model based on the product magnitude of value, after that a industrial networks is established on
Thirdly, with random, degree value standard and betweenness value standard to attack the industrial networks, we can have an anti-destroying ability analysis and research, and put forward improvement strategies of the industrial networks to raise the entire the operating efficiency of industry system.
Fourthly based on the weighted and directed characteristics, this paper put forward an improved K-means clustering algorithm, and with combining modularity industrial networks is partitioned into five communities, and established communities relational matrix to analysis the input-output relationships between communities.
Finally, this paper attempts to analyze complex characteristics with input-output tables of china in 2007,2002 and 1997, find out new contents and evolution regularity of industry, and put forward the rule model of dynamic networks characteristic.
引文
[1]祈国宁,徐福缘,复杂网络-系统结构研究文集[C].浙江大学现代制造工程研究所.
[2]Amaral L A N, Scala A, Barth elemy M, Stanley H E 2000 Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97 11149.
[3]Adamic LA, Huberman B A 2000 Science 2872115.
[4]Huberman B A, Adamic LA 1999 Nature 401131.
[5]Stelling J, Klamt S, Bettenbrock K, Schuster S, Gilles E D 2002 Nature 420190.
[6]Maslov S, Sneppen K 2002 Science 296910
[7]Bai W J, Wang B H, Zhou T 2005 Complex Systems and Complexity Science 229.
[8]王丹力,王宏安,戴国忠供应链管理的复杂性研究[J].系统仿真学报2002(11)
[9]刘增浙江省产业集群基于1997年、2002年投入产出表的定量研究[J].区域经济,2006.
[10]张玲玲,李军,佟仁城基于ERP的机械制造企业投入产出表结构及分析[J].中国管理科学,2007/01.
[11]郭崇慧,唐焕文动态投入产出模型的解及其灵敏度分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2004/01.
[12]钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运投入产出分析[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,1993.1-2.
[13]廖明球投入产出及其扩展分析[M].北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社.
[14]Hakansson, H.(1992), Evolution Processes in Industrial Networks, in BAxelsson and G. Easton eds Industrial Networks:A New View of Reality[J]. London Routledge.pp.129-143.
[15]Wilkinson,1.,& Young, L.(2002), On cooperating:Firms, relations, net-works[J]. Journal of Business Research,55,123-132.
[16]Carlos, Melo.Brito., Towards an Institutional Theory of the Dynamics of Industrial Networks[J]. Journal if Business&Industrial Marketing, Vol.16,pp.150-166.
[17]黄翔中产业网络内的厂商行为模型[J].国际贸易探索.2008(07).
[18]郭南芸,隋广军基于领导企业行为的产业网络及其动态性研究[J].经济问题.2008(05).
[19]张丹宁,唐晓华产业网络组织及其分类研究[J].中国工业经济.2008(02).
[20]黄守坤,李文彬产业网络及其演变模式分析[J].中国工业经济.2005(04).
[21]李守伟,程发新基于企业进入与退出的产业网络演化研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2009(06).
[22]李守伟,钱省三,沈运红基于产业网络的创新扩散机制研究[J].科研管理.2007,28(04).
[23]蔡宁,王晓娟集群企业外迁及效应研究[c].企业网络与经济增长学术研讨会论文.2005
[24]朱瑞博,模块化抗产业集群内生性风险的机理分析[J].中国工业经济.2004(05).
[25]罗一鸣,毛力平产业网络的CAS模型[J].商场现代化.2006(01).
[26]李守伟,钱省三产业网络的复杂性研究与实证[J].科学学研究.2006,24(4).
[27]Milgram, S., The small world problem, Psychology Today 2,1967,pp.60-67.
[28]Granovetter M. The strength of weak ties. American Journal of Sciology,1973, 78(6):1360-1380.
[29]White H. Chains of Opportunity:System Models of Mobility in Organization. Cambridge: Harvard University Press,1970:23-67.
[30]Burt R S. Structural Holes:the Social Structure of Competition. Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992:56-70.
[31]Faloutsos M, Faloutsos P, Faloutsos C. On power-law relationships of the Internet topology. ACMSIGCOMM Computer Communication Review,1999,29(4):251-262.
[32]Winick J, Jamin S. Inet-3.0:Internet togology generator. Technical report CSE-TR-456-02, Department of EECS, University of Michigan,2002.
[33]Kephart J O, Chess D M, White S R Computers and Epidemiology[J]. IEEE Spectrum, 1993,30(5):20-26.
[34]R Pastor-Satorras, A Vespignani Immunization of Complex Networks[J]. Phys Rev. E,2002,65(3):36-104.
[35]汪小帆,李翔,陈关荣复杂网络理论及其应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[36]Erdos P, Renyi A. On the evolution of random graphs[J]. Publ. Math. Inst. Hung. Acad. Sci., 1960,5:17-60.
[37]Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of 'small-world'Networks[J]. Nature.1998, 393(6684):440-442.
[38]Newman M E J, Watts D J.Renormalization group analysis of the small-world network model[J]. Phys. Lett. A,1999,263:341-346.
[39]Barabasi, Albert Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks[J], science VOL 286 15 1999.10-23.
[40]Petter Hdme, Sung Min Park, Beom Jun Kim, etal. Dynamics of large affiliation network, arxiv:Condmat/0411634.
[41]Albert R, Jeong H, Barabasi A L. Error and attack tolerance of complex networks[J]. Nature, 2000,406:378-382.
[42]M. E. J. Newman, S. H. Strogatz, and D. J. Watts, Random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions and their applications [J]. Phys. Rev. E 64,026118,2001.
[43]A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, R.Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, The architecture of complex weighted networks [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.101,2004,3747-3752.
[44]Patter Holme, Sung Min Park, Beom Jun Kim, Christofer R.Edling, Korean university life in a network perspective:Dynamics of a large affiliation network [J].arXiv:cond-mat/0411634.
[45]Frank H, Frisch I, Analysis and design of survivable network[J]. IEEE Trans. on Commuication Technology,1970, COM218(5):567-662.
[46]Wilkov R S. Analysis and design of reliable computer networks[J]. IEEE Trans. on Commuication,1972,20(3):660-678.
[47]Serrano M A, Boguna M, Topology of the world trade web[J]. Physical Review E,2003, 68:01501.
[48]罗鹏程,金光,周经纶等.通信网可靠性研究综述[J].小型微型计算机系,2000,21(10)：73-77.
[49]FORTUNATO S. Community detection in graphs[J/OL]. Eprint arXiv,2009,0906:0612vl.
[50]杨博,刘大有,LIU Jiming.金弟,马海宾.复杂网络聚类方法[J]. Journal of Software, Vol.20, No.l, January 2009, pp.54-66.
[51]Pothen A, Simon H, Liou K-P. Partitioning sparse matrices with eigenvectors of graphs[J]. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl,1990,11(3):430-452.
[52]Kernighan B W,Lin S. A efficient heuristic procedure for partitioning graphs. Bell System Technical Journal,1970,49:291-307.
[53]Reichardt J, Bomholdt S Detecting fuzzy community structures in complex networks with a Potts model[J]. Phys Rev Lett,2004,93(21):218701.
[54]Reichardt J, Bomholdt S Statistical mechanics of community detection[J]. Phys Rev E,2006, 74(1):01611.
[55]Girvan M, Newman M E J. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.,2001,99:7821-7826.
[56]Radicchi F, Castellano C,Cecconi F, Loreto V.,Parisi D.Defining ang identifying communities in networks.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,2004,101:2658-2663.
[57]Fortunato S, Latora V,Marchiori M.A method to find community structures based on information centrality.Phys.Rev.E,2004,70:056104.
[58]Latora V, Marchiori M. Efficient behave of small-word networks. Phys.Rev.Lett.,2001, 87:198701.
[59]Duch J, Arenas A.Community detection in complex networks using extreme optimization. Physical Review E,2005,72:027104.
[60]Steinhaus H.Sur la division des corps materiels en parties(in French)[J]. Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci.1956,4(12):801-804.
[61]Gurvan M, Newman M E J. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci.,2001,99:7821-7826.
[62]新饭田宏.投入产出分析方法[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1990.
[63]国家统计局国民经济核算司.1997年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[64]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2002年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[65]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[66]S. Boccaletti, V. Latra, Y. Moreno, M. Chavez, D. U Hwang. Complex networks:structure and dynamics, Physics Reports,2006,424(4-5):175-308
[2]Amaral L A N, Scala A, Barth elemy M, Stanley H E 2000 Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97 11149.
[3]Adamic LA, Huberman B A 2000 Science 2872115.
[4]Huberman B A, Adamic LA 1999 Nature 401131.
[5]Stelling J, Klamt S, Bettenbrock K, Schuster S, Gilles E D 2002 Nature 420190.
[6]Maslov S, Sneppen K 2002 Science 296910
[7]Bai W J, Wang B H, Zhou T 2005 Complex Systems and Complexity Science 229.
[8]王丹力,王宏安,戴国忠供应链管理的复杂性研究[J].系统仿真学报2002(11)
[9]刘增浙江省产业集群基于1997年、2002年投入产出表的定量研究[J].区域经济,2006.
[10]张玲玲,李军,佟仁城基于ERP的机械制造企业投入产出表结构及分析[J].中国管理科学,2007/01.
[11]郭崇慧,唐焕文动态投入产出模型的解及其灵敏度分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2004/01.
[12]钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运投入产出分析[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,1993.1-2.
[13]廖明球投入产出及其扩展分析[M].北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社.
[14]Hakansson, H.(1992), Evolution Processes in Industrial Networks, in BAxelsson and G. Easton eds Industrial Networks:A New View of Reality[J]. London Routledge.pp.129-143.
[15]Wilkinson,1.,& Young, L.(2002), On cooperating:Firms, relations, net-works[J]. Journal of Business Research,55,123-132.
[16]Carlos, Melo.Brito., Towards an Institutional Theory of the Dynamics of Industrial Networks[J]. Journal if Business&Industrial Marketing, Vol.16,pp.150-166.
[17]黄翔中产业网络内的厂商行为模型[J].国际贸易探索.2008(07).
[18]郭南芸,隋广军基于领导企业行为的产业网络及其动态性研究[J].经济问题.2008(05).
[19]张丹宁,唐晓华产业网络组织及其分类研究[J].中国工业经济.2008(02).
[20]黄守坤,李文彬产业网络及其演变模式分析[J].中国工业经济.2005(04).
[21]李守伟,程发新基于企业进入与退出的产业网络演化研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理. 2009(06).
[22]李守伟,钱省三,沈运红基于产业网络的创新扩散机制研究[J].科研管理.2007,28(04).
[23]蔡宁,王晓娟集群企业外迁及效应研究[c].企业网络与经济增长学术研讨会论文.2005
[24]朱瑞博,模块化抗产业集群内生性风险的机理分析[J].中国工业经济.2004(05).
[25]罗一鸣,毛力平产业网络的CAS模型[J].商场现代化.2006(01).
[26]李守伟,钱省三产业网络的复杂性研究与实证[J].科学学研究.2006,24(4).
[27]Milgram, S., The small world problem, Psychology Today 2,1967,pp.60-67.
[28]Granovetter M. The strength of weak ties. American Journal of Sciology,1973, 78(6):1360-1380.
[29]White H. Chains of Opportunity:System Models of Mobility in Organization. Cambridge: Harvard University Press,1970:23-67.
[30]Burt R S. Structural Holes:the Social Structure of Competition. Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992:56-70.
[31]Faloutsos M, Faloutsos P, Faloutsos C. On power-law relationships of the Internet topology. ACMSIGCOMM Computer Communication Review,1999,29(4):251-262.
[32]Winick J, Jamin S. Inet-3.0:Internet togology generator. Technical report CSE-TR-456-02, Department of EECS, University of Michigan,2002.
[33]Kephart J O, Chess D M, White S R Computers and Epidemiology[J]. IEEE Spectrum, 1993,30(5):20-26.
[34]R Pastor-Satorras, A Vespignani Immunization of Complex Networks[J]. Phys Rev. E,2002,65(3):36-104.
[35]汪小帆,李翔,陈关荣复杂网络理论及其应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[36]Erdos P, Renyi A. On the evolution of random graphs[J]. Publ. Math. Inst. Hung. Acad. Sci., 1960,5:17-60.
[37]Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of 'small-world'Networks[J]. Nature.1998, 393(6684):440-442.
[38]Newman M E J, Watts D J.Renormalization group analysis of the small-world network model[J]. Phys. Lett. A,1999,263:341-346.
[39]Barabasi, Albert Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks[J], science VOL 286 15 1999.10-23.
[40]Petter Hdme, Sung Min Park, Beom Jun Kim, etal. Dynamics of large affiliation network, arxiv:Condmat/0411634.
[41]Albert R, Jeong H, Barabasi A L. Error and attack tolerance of complex networks[J]. Nature, 2000,406:378-382.
[42]M. E. J. Newman, S. H. Strogatz, and D. J. Watts, Random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions and their applications [J]. Phys. Rev. E 64,026118,2001.
[43]A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, R.Pastor-Satorras, A. Vespignani, The architecture of complex weighted networks [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.101,2004,3747-3752.
[44]Patter Holme, Sung Min Park, Beom Jun Kim, Christofer R.Edling, Korean university life in a network perspective:Dynamics of a large affiliation network [J].arXiv:cond-mat/0411634.
[45]Frank H, Frisch I, Analysis and design of survivable network[J]. IEEE Trans. on Commuication Technology,1970, COM218(5):567-662.
[46]Wilkov R S. Analysis and design of reliable computer networks[J]. IEEE Trans. on Commuication,1972,20(3):660-678.
[47]Serrano M A, Boguna M, Topology of the world trade web[J]. Physical Review E,2003, 68:01501.
[48]罗鹏程,金光,周经纶等.通信网可靠性研究综述[J].小型微型计算机系,2000,21(10)：73-77.
[49]FORTUNATO S. Community detection in graphs[J/OL]. Eprint arXiv,2009,0906:0612vl.
[50]杨博,刘大有,LIU Jiming.金弟,马海宾.复杂网络聚类方法[J]. Journal of Software, Vol.20, No.l, January 2009, pp.54-66.
[51]Pothen A, Simon H, Liou K-P. Partitioning sparse matrices with eigenvectors of graphs[J]. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl,1990,11(3):430-452.
[52]Kernighan B W,Lin S. A efficient heuristic procedure for partitioning graphs. Bell System Technical Journal,1970,49:291-307.
[53]Reichardt J, Bomholdt S Detecting fuzzy community structures in complex networks with a Potts model[J]. Phys Rev Lett,2004,93(21):218701.
[54]Reichardt J, Bomholdt S Statistical mechanics of community detection[J]. Phys Rev E,2006, 74(1):01611.
[55]Girvan M, Newman M E J. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.,2001,99:7821-7826.
[56]Radicchi F, Castellano C,Cecconi F, Loreto V.,Parisi D.Defining ang identifying communities in networks.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,2004,101:2658-2663.
[57]Fortunato S, Latora V,Marchiori M.A method to find community structures based on information centrality.Phys.Rev.E,2004,70:056104.
[58]Latora V, Marchiori M. Efficient behave of small-word networks. Phys.Rev.Lett.,2001, 87:198701.
[59]Duch J, Arenas A.Community detection in complex networks using extreme optimization. Physical Review E,2005,72:027104.
[60]Steinhaus H.Sur la division des corps materiels en parties(in French)[J]. Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci.1956,4(12):801-804.
[61]Gurvan M, Newman M E J. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci.,2001,99:7821-7826.
[62]新饭田宏.投入产出分析方法[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1990.
[63]国家统计局国民经济核算司.1997年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[64]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2002年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[65]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京：中国统计出版社.
[66]S. Boccaletti, V. Latra, Y. Moreno, M. Chavez, D. U Hwang. Complex networks:structure and dynamics, Physics Reports,2006,424(4-5):175-308